Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) AI Stock Analysis

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Puma Biotechnology

(NASDAQ:PBYI)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:―

Puma Biotechnology's overall stock score reflects its financial improvements, technical momentum, and attractive valuation. However, the company's challenges with revenue consistency and leverage, combined with mixed earnings call insights, temper the outlook. Long-term prospects may depend on successful execution of strategic initiatives and stabilization of revenue.

Positive Factors

Analyst Rating

The analyst reiterates a Buy rating and a $7 price target for Puma Biotechnology's stock, indicating a positive outlook.

Market Presence

The inclusion of Nerlynx in the updated NCCN Guidelines for Cervical Cancer as a treatment option signifies a potential increase in demand for the drug.

Sales Performance

Nerlynx sales exceeded expectations with $54.4MM reported, surpassing the consensus of $47MM.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trials

The ongoing trial of Alisertib shows a lack of confidence, leading to a Hold recommendation.

Product Demand

Nerlynx demand/volumes continue to decline, management has largely been able to counteract this with price increases.

Revenue Expectations

Q2 revenue guidance appears aggressive, raising concerns about meeting these expectations.

Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$184.65M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)404.69K

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.8

Beta (1Y)0.90

Revenue Growth-2.19%

EPS Growth34.91%

CountryUS

Employees172

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength42

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.06

Shares Outstanding49,638,092

10 Day Avg. Volume442,085

30 Day Avg. Volume404,693

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.19

Price to Book (P/B)1.67

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio4.01

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.00

Price Target Upside-19.35% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering2

Puma Biotechnology Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPuma Biotechnology, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative products to enhance cancer care. Primarily operating in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, the company is dedicated to discovering and advancing novel therapeutics for the treatment of various cancer types. Its core product, NERLYNX (neratinib), is a leading oral medication designed to treat HER2-positive breast cancer and has been approved by the FDA for commercial use.

How the Company Makes MoneyPuma Biotechnology generates revenue primarily through the sales of its flagship product, NERLYNX. The company earns money by selling this prescription drug to wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors, who then supply it to healthcare providers and patients. Additionally, Puma may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing agreements or partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies interested in marketing NERLYNX in regions outside the United States. These collaborations can significantly contribute to the company's earnings by expanding its market reach and leveraging the distribution and marketing capabilities of its partners.

Puma Biotechnology Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 21.17%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented both positive developments in clinical trials and global expansion efforts, contrasted by significant declines in revenue and sales metrics. The financial challenges, including decreased revenue, prescriptions, and inventory issues, were offset by positive clinical trial results and strategic global partnerships.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Increase in New Prescriptions

New prescriptions for NERLYNX were up approximately 6% compared to Q4 2024.

Expansion of Global Reach

NERLYNX was launched in Libya in the extended adjuvant setting, and a distribution agreement was signed with Er-Kim for select countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Positive Phase I Trial Data

Interim data from a Phase I trial showed promising results for the combination of neratinib and Fam-trastuzumab deruxtecan in patients with metastatic solid tumors.

Potential for Improved Patient Outcomes

The adoption of dose escalation for NERLYNX patients remains high, with approximately 72% of patients starting at a reduced dose, which is associated with better persistence and compliance.

Negative Updates

Decline in NERLYNX Revenue

Product revenue net was $43.1 million, a decline from $54.4 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to a $4.7 million inventory decrease at specialty pharmacies and distributors.

Decrease in Total Prescriptions

Total prescriptions were down approximately 9% compared to Q4 2024.

Challenges in Inventory Management

Ex-factory bottle sales for NERLYNX were down 21% quarter-over-quarter due to seasonal inventory changes.

Lower Royalty Revenue

Royalty revenue was $2.9 million in Q1 2025, down from $4.7 million in Q4 2024.

Company Guidance

During the conference call for the first quarter of 2025, Puma Biotechnology provided guidance on several key financial metrics. The company reported total revenue of $46.0 million, with net product revenue from NERLYNX sales at $43.1 million, a decrease from the previous quarter but an increase from the same quarter last year. Royalty revenue for the quarter was $2.9 million. The company noted a decrease of approximately $4.7 million in inventory at specialty pharmacies and distributors. For fiscal year 2025, Puma anticipates net NERLYNX product revenue to range between $192 million and $198 million, with royalties expected between $20 million and $24 million. The gross to net adjustment for the full year is projected to be between 20.5% and 21.5%. Additionally, Puma forecasts a net income between $23 million and $28 million for the year, with no expected license revenue. For the second quarter of 2025, the company expects NERLYNX net product revenue of $48 million to $50 million and royalty revenue of $2 million to $3 million.

Puma Biotechnology Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Puma Biotechnology demonstrates financial improvement with positive net income and enhanced cash flow management. However, revenue growth remains inconsistent, and leverage poses a risk.

Income Statement

Positive

Puma Biotechnology's income statement shows moderate performance with a consistent gross profit margin of around 72% over the years. However, the revenue has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline from 2023 to 2024. Net income has improved significantly, transitioning from negative figures in previous years to a positive $30.28 million in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating better operational efficiency, but the overall revenue growth remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects improvement in stockholders' equity, rising to $92.13 million in 2024 from negative figures in previous years. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved due to increased equity, although it still indicates a leveraged position. The equity ratio has stabilized, reflecting better asset management, but the high total liabilities continue to pose a risk.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis shows strong growth in free cash flow, which increased significantly in 2024. Operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient cash management, and free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable. The company has managed capital expenditures well, contributing to improved free cash flow, though past fluctuations in cash flow need monitoring.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
230.47M	235.64M	228.00M	253.20M	225.10M
	Gross Profit
166.06M	172.96M	172.90M	189.50M	185.70M
	EBIT
30.97M	32.64M	23.70M	-8.90M	-30.40M
	EBITDA
48.08M	47.52M	20.97M	-5.40M	-38.54M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
30.28M	21.59M	912.00K	-29.10M	-60.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
100.97M	95.94M	76.20M	63.10M	85.30M
	Total Assets
213.33M	230.53M	222.06M	226.59M	244.22M
	Total Debt
52.36M	111.49M	114.28M	116.64M	120.95M
	Net Debt
-16.86M	26.91M	38.08M	53.54M	35.65M
	Total Liabilities
121.21M	177.09M	200.45M	229.03M	250.17M
	Stockholders Equity
92.13M	53.44M	21.60M	-2.40M	-6.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
38.86M	14.37M	-22.80M	20.70M	-19.25M
	Operating Cash Flow
38.92M	27.01M	-15.80M	20.70M	800.00K
	Investing Cash Flow
-20.44M	-19.13M	7.10M	-10.90M	23.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
-33.85M	0.00	12.20M	-31.90M	100.00K

Puma Biotechnology Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price3.72

Price Trends

50DMA

3.12

Positive

100DMA

3.11

Positive

200DMA

2.97

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.12

Negative

RSI

65.63

Neutral

STOCH

88.15

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBYI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.33, above the 50-day MA of 3.12, and above the 200-day MA of 2.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBYI.

Puma Biotechnology Risk Analysis

Puma Biotechnology disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Puma Biotechnology reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Puma Biotechnology Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PBYI	69 Neutral	$184.65M	4.83	51.41%	―	-2.19%	34.91%
FULC	66 Neutral	$391.35M	―	-0.23%	―	3087.25%	97.11%
NBTX	57 Neutral	$223.48M	―	2152.93%	―	―	54.68%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.31B	3.28	-45.10%	2.80%	16.76%	0.02%
TNGX	47 Neutral	$461.76M	―	-61.35%	―	10.10%	-7.25%
IKT	46 Neutral	$145.71M	―	-79.02%	―	-100.00%	38.72%
TARA	39 Underperform	$128.67M	―	-41.88%	―	―	32.58%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PBYI

Puma Biotechnology

3.72

0.23

6.59%

TARA

Protara Therapeutics

3.27

0.59

22.01%

FULC

Fulcrum Therapeutics

7.25

-0.91

-11.15%

TNGX

Tango Therapeutics

4.26

-2.90

-40.50%

IKT

Inhibikase Therapeutics

1.95

0.32

19.63%

NBTX

Nanobiotix

4.68

-0.94

-16.73%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.