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Puma Biotechnology (PBYI)
:PBYI
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Puma Biotechnology
(NASDAQ:PBYI)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Drug Approval and Guidelines
The inclusion of Nerlynx in the updated NCCN Guidelines for Cervical Cancer as a treatment option signifies a potential increase in demand for the drug.
Financial Performance
Puma reported net income, reflecting profitability in the financial results.
Market Outlook
The analyst reiterates a Buy rating and a $7 price target for Puma Biotechnology's stock, indicating a positive outlook.
Negative Factors
Clinical Trials
The ongoing trial of Alisertib shows a lack of confidence, leading to a Hold recommendation.
Demand and Volume
Nerlynx demand/volumes continue to decline, management has largely been able to counteract this with price increases.
Revenue Expectations
Q2 revenue guidance appears aggressive, raising concerns about meeting these expectations.
Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$176.71M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)397.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.4
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-2.19%
EPS Growth34.91%
CountryUS
Employees172
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength58
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding49,638,092
10 Day Avg. Volume466,069
30 Day Avg. Volume397,155
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.84
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio5.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.00Price Target Upside-10.45% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
Puma Biotechnology Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPuma Biotechnology, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products to enhance cancer care in the United States and internationally. The company's drug candidates include PB272 neratinib (oral) for the patients with early stage HER2-overexpressed/amplified breast cancer; PB272 (neratinib, oral) for the use of neratinib in combination with capecitabine for the treatment of adult patients with advanced or metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer; PB272 (neratinib, oral) for HER2 mutation-positive solid tumors. It has a license agreement with Pfizer, Inc.; and sub-license agreement with Specialised Therapeutics Asia Pte Ltd., CANbridge BIOMED Limited, Pint Pharma International SA, Knight Therapeutics, Inc., Pierre Fabre Medicament SAS, and Bixink Therapeutics Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyPuma Biotechnology generates revenue primarily through the sales of its flagship product, NERLYNX. The company earns money by selling this prescription drug to wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors, who then supply it to healthcare providers and patients. Additionally, Puma may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing agreements or partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies interested in marketing NERLYNX in regions outside the United States. These collaborations can significantly contribute to the company's earnings by expanding its market reach and leveraging the distribution and marketing capabilities of its partners.
Puma Biotechnology Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 9.12%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented both positive developments in clinical trials and global expansion efforts, contrasted by significant declines in revenue and sales metrics. The financial challenges, including decreased revenue, prescriptions, and inventory issues, were offset by positive clinical trial results and strategic global partnerships.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in New Prescriptions
New prescriptions for NERLYNX were up approximately 6% compared to Q4 2024.
Expansion of Global Reach
NERLYNX was launched in Libya in the extended adjuvant setting, and a distribution agreement was signed with Er-Kim for select countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Positive Phase I Trial Data
Interim data from a Phase I trial showed promising results for the combination of neratinib and Fam-trastuzumab deruxtecan in patients with metastatic solid tumors.
Potential for Improved Patient Outcomes
The adoption of dose escalation for NERLYNX patients remains high, with approximately 72% of patients starting at a reduced dose, which is associated with better persistence and compliance.
Negative Updates
Decline in NERLYNX Revenue
Product revenue net was $43.1 million, a decline from $54.4 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to a $4.7 million inventory decrease at specialty pharmacies and distributors.
Decrease in Total Prescriptions
Total prescriptions were down approximately 9% compared to Q4 2024.
Challenges in Inventory Management
Ex-factory bottle sales for NERLYNX were down 21% quarter-over-quarter due to seasonal inventory changes.
Lower Royalty Revenue
Royalty revenue was $2.9 million in Q1 2025, down from $4.7 million in Q4 2024.
Company Guidance
During the conference call for the first quarter of 2025, Puma Biotechnology provided guidance on several key financial metrics. The company reported total revenue of $46.0 million, with net product revenue from NERLYNX sales at $43.1 million, a decrease from the previous quarter but an increase from the same quarter last year. Royalty revenue for the quarter was $2.9 million. The company noted a decrease of approximately $4.7 million in inventory at specialty pharmacies and distributors. For fiscal year 2025, Puma anticipates net NERLYNX product revenue to range between $192 million and $198 million, with royalties expected between $20 million and $24 million. The gross to net adjustment for the full year is projected to be between 20.5% and 21.5%. Additionally, Puma forecasts a net income between $23 million and $28 million for the year, with no expected license revenue. For the second quarter of 2025, the company expects NERLYNX net product revenue of $48 million to $50 million and royalty revenue of $2 million to $3 million.Puma Biotechnology Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Puma Biotechnology's financial performance shows improvements with a positive net income and enhanced cash flow management. However, challenges persist with revenue fluctuations and high leverage, which weigh on the overall financial stability.Income Statement
Puma Biotechnology's income statement shows moderate performance with a consistent gross profit margin of around 72% over the years. However, the revenue has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline from 2023 to 2024. Net income has improved significantly, transitioning from negative figures in previous years to a positive $30.28 million in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating better operational efficiency, but the overall revenue growth remains a concern.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects improvement in stockholders' equity, rising to $92.13 million in 2024 from negative figures in previous years. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved due to increased equity, although it still indicates a leveraged position. The equity ratio has stabilized, reflecting better asset management, but the high total liabilities continue to pose a risk.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows strong growth in free cash flow, which increased significantly in 2024. Operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient cash management, and free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable. The company has managed capital expenditures well, contributing to improved free cash flow, though past fluctuations in cash flow need monitoring.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 232.71M | 230.47M | 235.64M | 228.00M | 253.20M | 225.10M | Gross Profit |
| 168.48M | 166.06M | 172.96M | 172.90M | 189.50M | 185.70M | EBIT |
| 37.25M | 30.97M | 32.64M | 23.70M | -8.90M | -30.40M | EBITDA |
| 50.40M | 48.08M | 47.52M | 20.97M | -5.40M | -38.54M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 38.07M | 30.28M | 21.59M | 912.00K | -29.10M | -60.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 76.20M | 100.97M | 95.94M | 76.20M | 63.10M | 85.30M | Total Assets |
| 222.06M | 213.33M | 230.53M | 222.06M | 226.59M | 244.22M | Total Debt |
| 114.28M | 74.08M | 111.49M | 114.28M | 116.64M | 120.95M | Net Debt |
| 38.08M | 4.86M | 26.91M | 38.08M | 53.54M | 35.65M | Total Liabilities |
| 200.45M | 121.21M | 177.09M | 200.45M | 229.03M | 250.17M | Stockholders Equity |
| 21.60M | 92.13M | 53.44M | 21.60M | -2.40M | -6.00M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 31.17M | 38.86M | 14.37M | -22.80M | 20.70M | -19.25M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 31.28M | 38.92M | 27.01M | -15.80M | 20.70M | 800.00K | Investing Cash Flow |
| 173.00K | -20.44M | -19.13M | 7.10M | -10.90M | 23.30M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -45.18M | -33.85M | 0.00 | 12.20M | -31.90M | 100.00K |
Puma Biotechnology Technical Analysis
Positive
3.35
Price Trends
3.17
Positive
3.14
Positive
2.99
Positive
Market Momentum
0.10
Positive
48.95
Neutral
49.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBYI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.45, above the 50-day MA of 3.17, and above the 200-day MA of 2.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBYI.
Puma Biotechnology Risk Analysis
Puma Biotechnology disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Puma Biotechnology reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Puma Biotechnology Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $176.71M | 4.35 | 51.41% | ― | -2.19% | 34.91% | |
66 Neutral | $365.98M | ― | -0.23% | ― | 3087.25% | 97.11% | |
55 Neutral | $261.62M | ― | 2152.93% | ― | ― | 54.68% | |
54 Neutral | $5.41B | 3.27 | -45.10% | 3.29% | 16.81% | 0.02% | |
46 Neutral | $547.39M | ― | -61.35% | ― | 10.10% | -7.25% | |
46 Neutral | $145.71M | ― | -79.02% | ― | -100.00% | 38.72% | |
39 Underperform | $125.78M | ― | -41.88% | ― | ― | 32.58% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
PBYI
Puma Biotechnology
3.35
0.15
4.69%
TARA
Protara Therapeutics
3.14
0.59
23.14%
FULC
Fulcrum Therapeutics
6.85
-0.15
-2.14%
TNGX
Tango Therapeutics
4.69
-4.69
-50.00%
IKT
Inhibikase Therapeutics
1.86
0.27
16.98%
NBTX
Nanobiotix
5.34
0.51
10.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.