Puma Biotechnology (PBYI)
NASDAQ:PBYI
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Puma Biotechnology
(NASDAQ:PBYI)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(13.79% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is primarily supported by improved financial strength (profitability, strong free cash flow, and a delevered/debt-free profile) and constructive technicals. It is held back by the weak reported valuation signal (negative P/E) and the fundamental risk of a sharply declining TTM revenue trend and quarter-to-quarter revenue volatility highlighted on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow near $53.6M provides durable internal funding for operations, commercialization and R&D without reliance on external financing. This cash cushion supports runway, strategic optionality and resilience to quarter-to-quarter revenue swings over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Sharp TTM revenue decline
A roughly 53% TTM revenue drop signals weakening top-line durability that can erode scale benefits, constrain reinvestment and reduce margin headroom. Even with positive cash flow, continued revenue contraction would pressure long‑term profitability and the company’s ability to sustain commercial and development programs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow near $53.6M provides durable internal funding for operations, commercialization and R&D without reliance on external financing. This cash cushion supports runway, strategic optionality and resilience to quarter-to-quarter revenue swings over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$360.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)562.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth-2.38%
EPS Growth-37.13%
CountryUS
Employees172
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding50,899,456
10 Day Avg. Volume391,965
30 Day Avg. Volume562,573
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)2.28
Price to Sales (P/S)1.30
P/FCF Ratio7.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.00Price Target Upside-33.07% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$218.00M
Puma Biotechnology Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Puma Biotechnology, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products to enhance cancer care in the United States and internationally. The company's drug candidates include PB272 neratinib (oral) for t...
How the Company Makes Money
Puma Biotechnology primarily makes money by selling its commercial oncology drug NERLYNX (neratinib). Revenue is generated from product sales in markets where Puma commercializes the drug directly and from sales-based arrangements in markets where...
Puma Biotechnology Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic view: despite a notable sequential decline in Q1 revenue and a substantial drop in royalties driven by timing and inventory effects, management strengthened full-year revenue and net income guidance, retired debt and maintained a solid cash position. Commercial execution showed improvement in new starts, enrollments and salesforce activity, and the alisertib Phase II interim data revealed promising biomarker-driven signals (c-Myc enrichment, ESR1-mutant/PIK3CA–wild-type subsets) and manageable safety with prophylactic G-CSF in lung trials. Key near-term risks include elevated gross-to-net rates, higher R&D spending, inventory variability affecting quarterly results, and neutropenia at higher doses in breast cohorts. On balance, positives around raised guidance, strong balance-sheet actions, improving commercial metrics, and encouraging clinical signals outweigh the quarter-specific revenue headwinds.Positive Updates
Q1 2026 Revenue & Guidance
Reported total revenue of $44.8M and net product revenue of $42.0M for Q1 2026. Company raised FY2026 net NERLYNX product revenue guidance to $202M–$206M (up from prior $194M–$198M) and raised FY net income guidance to $16M–$19M (prior $10M–$13M). Q2 2026 product revenue guidance is $50M–$52M with Q2 net income expected $2M–$4M.
Negative Updates
Q1 Quarter-over-Quarter Revenue Decline
Net product revenue declined from $59.9M in Q4 2025 to $42.0M in Q1 2026 — a decrease of $17.9M (≈29.9% Q/Q). U.S. net sales in Q1 were $41.8M vs $55.2M in Q4 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q1 2026 Revenue & Guidance
Reported total revenue of $44.8M and net product revenue of $42.0M for Q1 2026. Company raised FY2026 net NERLYNX product revenue guidance to $202M–$206M (up from prior $194M–$198M) and raised FY net income guidance to $16M–$19M (prior $10M–$13M). Q2 2026 product revenue guidance is $50M–$52M with Q2 net income expected $2M–$4M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Puma guided full‑year 2026 net NERLYNX product revenue of $202–$206 million (up from prior $194–$198M), a gross‑to‑net adjustment of 26.5%–27.5%, expected royalties of $20–$23 million, no license revenue, and projected full‑year net income of $16–$19 million (excluding any potential tax valuation allowance release); Q2 2026 guidance called for $50–$52 million of product revenue, $2–$3 million of royalties, a gross‑to‑net of ~27%–28% and net income of $2–$4 million. Management reiterated ongoing cost‑of‑sales amortization to the licensor of about $2.4 million per quarter, expects SG&A to rise ~1%–2% and R&D to increase ~34%–37% year‑over‑year, and noted Q1 cash burn was ~$4 million with cash and marketable securities of ~$101.5 million (accounts receivable $26.3M, DSO ≈46 days, distribution inventory ≈3 weeks) and that the company is now debt‑free.Puma Biotechnology Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 227.18M | 228.37M | 230.47M | 235.64M | 228.03M | 253.16M |
| Gross Profit | 169.15M | 170.21M | 166.06M | 172.96M | 172.94M | 189.45M |
| EBITDA | 43.77M | 53.34M | 48.08M | 47.52M | 21.89M | -4.69M |
| Net Income | 24.38M | 31.11M | 30.28M | 21.59M | 2.00K | -29.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 192.70M | 216.30M | 213.33M | 230.53M | 222.06M | 226.59M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 101.60M | 97.53M | 100.97M | 95.94M | 81.07M | 82.11M |
| Total Debt | 15.95M | 28.55M | 74.08M | 111.49M | 114.28M | 116.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 64.28M | 85.96M | 121.21M | 177.09M | 200.45M | 229.03M |
| Stockholders Equity | 128.42M | 130.34M | 92.13M | 53.44M | 21.61M | -2.45M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 53.60M | 41.73M | 38.86M | 14.37M | -22.83M | 20.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 53.61M | 41.80M | 38.92M | 27.01M | -15.83M | 20.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -35.24M | -36.19M | -20.44M | -19.13M | 7.10M | -10.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -45.17M | -45.20M | -33.85M | 0.00 | 12.22M | -31.93M |
Puma Biotechnology Technical Analysis
Positive
7.47
Price Trends
7.00
Positive
6.75
Positive
5.93
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
48.10
Neutral
48.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBYI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.24, above the 50-day MA of 7.00, and above the 200-day MA of 5.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PBYI.
Puma Biotechnology Risk Analysis
Puma Biotechnology disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Puma Biotechnology reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Puma Biotechnology Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $360.37M | -21.64 | 20.37% | ― | -2.38% | -37.13% | |
52 Neutral | $167.63M | -1.37 | -80.56% | ― | ― | 59.42% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $776.48M | >-0.01 | 87.31% | ― | ― | -1004.74% | |
47 Neutral | $229.60M | ― | -55.97% | ― | -45.50% | -35.63% | |
46 Neutral | $247.77M | -4.18 | 85.78% | ― | 20.08% | 14.06% | |
44 Neutral | $162.55M | -4.68 | -1115.29% | ― | 1.48% | -244.25% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
PBYI
Puma Biotechnology
7.08
3.64
105.81%
HRTX
Heron Therapeutics
0.86
-0.99
-53.62%
VYGR
Voyager Therapeutics
3.80
0.88
30.14%
FHTX
Foghorn Therapeutics
4.22
0.17
4.20%
VOR
Vor Biopharma
14.33
10.86
312.97%
TNYA
Tenaya Therapeutics
0.77
0.34
79.53%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.