PACS Group Inc (PACS)
NYSE:PACS
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PACS Group Inc
(NYSE:PACS)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(27.84% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and a constructive earnings outlook (raised EBITDA guidance and strong Q1 execution), supported by strong technical momentum. Offsetting factors are balance-sheet risk noted in the financial statements and earnings-call risk items (investigations, internal controls remediation, and incentive-payment uncertainty), with valuation remaining only moderate.
Positive Factors
Improving revenue & margins
Revenue and core profitability have shown durable improvement: TTM revenue growth with net margin rising to ~4.5% and EBITDA margin to ~8.2%. Consistent margin expansion indicates operating leverage and pricing/payer traction that should support earnings resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Regulatory & controls risk
Ongoing government probes and material weaknesses in financial controls create prolonged operational and disclosure risk. Remediation can require sustained management focus, legal and compliance costs, and could hamper M&A or financing until fully resolved, affecting multi-quarter execution certainty.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving revenue & margins
Revenue and core profitability have shown durable improvement: TTM revenue growth with net margin rising to ~4.5% and EBITDA margin to ~8.2%. Consistent margin expansion indicates operating leverage and pricing/payer traction that should support earnings resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
PACS Group Inc (PACS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.97B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)890.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)0.08
Revenue Growth20.90%
EPS Growth243.93%
CountryUS
Employees32,433
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryFinancial - Conglomerates
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.55
Shares Outstanding158,272,370
10 Day Avg. Volume1,258,235
30 Day Avg. Volume890,578
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)6.33
Price to Sales (P/S)1.13
P/FCF Ratio20.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.20Price Target Upside39.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.73B
PACS Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PACS Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of post-acute healthcare facilities, professionals, and ancillary services. It provides senior care, assisted living, and independent living options in some of the communities. ...
How the Company Makes Money
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PACS Group Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported robust underlying operational and financial performance: double-digit revenue growth, a large increase in adjusted EBITDA and EPS, strong occupancy and improving skilled mix, demonstrable clinical quality gains, significant liquidity and capital allocation optionality. Key risks are unresolved government investigations, ongoing remediation of internal controls, unpredictability in quality-incentive payments (WQIP discontinuation), and ramp-related drag from new facilities. Management emphasized conservative guidance treatment for uncertain incentive payments and acquisitions while highlighting continued M&A pipeline activity and balance sheet flexibility.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $1.42 billion in Q1 2026, up ~11% year-over-year, with same-store revenue up 8% (same-store = 284 skilled nursing facilities in operation since 2025).
Negative Updates
Ongoing Government Investigations and Internal Controls Remediation
Previously disclosed government investigations are active and progressing in the normal course; remediation of material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting remains ongoing and management expects substantial progress but not yet fully remediated. Timing and outcomes remain uncertain.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $1.42 billion in Q1 2026, up ~11% year-over-year, with same-store revenue up 8% (same-store = 284 skilled nursing facilities in operation since 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PACS updated its 2026 outlook by raising adjusted EBITDA to $605–$625 million (midpoint ≈22% growth vs. 2025) while reaffirming revenue guidance of $5.5–$5.75 billion; going forward guidance will exclude contributions from future acquisitions (prior guidance assumed ~$120 million of acquisition revenue) and will not include uncertain quality incentive payments (e.g., WQIP), though management expects two additional 2025‑year WQIP payments (timing uncertain). The raise reflects Q1 outperformance: revenue $1.42 billion (+11% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $170 million (+75% YoY; includes ~$16.3M WQIP and would be +$57M ex‑WQIP), adjusted EBITDAR $266 million, net income $80.7 million, diluted EPS $0.50, same‑store revenue +8% (284 SNFs), total occupancy 90.9% (vs. 89.2% LY) and same‑store occupancy 90.8% (vs. 89.6% LY), overall skilled mix 30.5% (+90 bps), mature cohort 94.8% occupancy/33% skilled mix, ramping 88.9% occupancy (improving skilled mix), new facilities 82.7% occupancy/26.5% skilled mix. Management also cited operating leverage (cost of services $1.07 billion, +5% YoY vs. revenue up ~11%), controlled G&A (~$112M) and operating expenses (+5.8% YoY), and a strong balance sheet (≈$250M cash, ≈$800M total liquidity, net leverage ~0.1x), while deploying $86.5M in real estate and authorizing up to $250M for share repurchases.PACS Group Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.43B | 5.29B | 4.09B | 3.11B | 2.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 1.16B | 792.64M | 447.07M | 400.68M |
| EBITDA | 444.25M | 365.57M | 186.70M | 232.87M | 254.89M |
| Net Income | 243.77M | 191.54M | 55.76M | 112.87M | 150.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.66B | 5.58B | 5.24B | 3.51B | 2.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 247.98M | 197.02M | 157.67M | 73.42M | 66.12M |
| Total Debt | 3.10B | 3.20B | 3.63B | 2.85B | 1.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.62B | 4.63B | 4.53B | 3.41B | 2.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04B | 946.77M | 709.55M | 96.13M | 63.65M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 237.05M | 298.82M | 300.88M | 17.91M | 14.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 490.31M | 404.22M | 367.34M | 63.70M | 92.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -374.97M | -264.02M | -442.68M | -172.79M | -75.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -132.24M | -68.99M | 117.48M | 129.59M | 12.35M |
PACS Group Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
35.20
Price Trends
34.58
Positive
36.15
Positive
26.90
Positive
Market Momentum
0.95
Negative
56.83
Neutral
46.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PACS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.60, above the 50-day MA of 34.58, and above the 200-day MA of 26.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PACS.
PACS Group Inc Risk Analysis
PACS Group Inc disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PACS Group Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PACS Group Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.28B | -66.38 | 5.02% | 12.60% | -11.06% | -53.49% | |
69 Neutral | $636.11M | 18.08 | 6.76% | 14.71% | -12.61% | -36.66% | |
68 Neutral | $508.17M | 8.58 | 85.96% | ― | 23.93% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $5.97B | 15.63 | 26.63% | ― | 20.90% | 243.93% | |
55 Neutral | $336.73M | -2.05 | -0.03% | 14.10% | -14.06% | -306.26% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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PACS Group Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
PACS Group Appoints New Chief Financial Officer Hendrickson
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
On April 24, 2026, PACS Group’s board named longtime public-company finance executive Carey Hendrickson as chief financial officer, effective April 27, 2026, as part of a planned transition from co-founder and interim CFO Mark Hancock, who w...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
PACS Group Appoints Patrick Conway to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, PACS Group Inc. appointed Patrick H. Conway, MD, MSc, the CEO of Optum and former senior leader at the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, to its Board of Directors as a Class III director, effective immediately and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.