PACS Group Inc (PACS)
NYSE:PACS
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PACS Group Inc
(NYSE:PACS)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▼(-9.55% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by financial risk signals—especially the reported 2025 collapse to zero operating/free cash flow and a debt-heavy balance sheet—despite strong growth and improved profitability. The latest earnings call offsets some of this with solid 2026 guidance and stated low net leverage, while technicals and valuation are both only moderate.
Positive Factors
Accelerating revenue and improving profitability
Sustained, accelerating top-line growth combined with meaningful 2025 profitability gains signals durable demand and improving operating leverage in PACS’s post-acute platform. Over 2–6 months this supports reinvestment capacity, strengthens margin expansion prospects, and validates scale-driven efficiencies.
Negative Factors
High historical and remaining leverage
Although improved, the company’s historical high leverage and still-elevated debt levels limit balance-sheet flexibility and increase sensitivity to cash shortfalls or rising rates. Over the medium term this constrains strategic choices, elevates refinancing risk, and can amplify shocks to earnings or cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Accelerating revenue and improving profitability
Sustained, accelerating top-line growth combined with meaningful 2025 profitability gains signals durable demand and improving operating leverage in PACS’s post-acute platform. Over 2–6 months this supports reinvestment capacity, strengthens margin expansion prospects, and validates scale-driven efficiencies.
Read all positive factors
PACS Group Inc (PACS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.56B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.3
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth35.37%
EPS Growth-37.58%
CountryUS
Employees32,433
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryFinancial - Conglomerates
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding157,165,020
10 Day Avg. Volume691,785
30 Day Avg. Volume1,427,658
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)6.33
Price to Sales (P/S)1.13
P/FCF Ratio20.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda155.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.40Price Target Upside31.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.71B
PACS Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PACS Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of post-acute healthcare facilities, professionals, and ancillary services. It provides senior care, assisted living, and independent living options in some of the communities. ...
How the Company Makes Money
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PACS Group Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized record financial results, strong clinical improvements, high mature-facility occupancy, low leverage and constructive 2026 guidance — offset by expected short-term headwinds related to cost increases, cohort stabilization of recently acquired facilities (lower occupancy in ramping/new cohorts), and elevated M&A pricing. Overall, management presents a confident, disciplined growth story with measurable operational wins and conservative capital management, acknowledging transitional pressures in non‑mature assets.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Profitability
Full year 2025 revenue of $5.29B, up ~29% year-over-year; Q4 revenue of $1.36B, up ~12% year-over-year. Full year net income $191.5M and diluted EPS $1.22. Record adjusted EBITDAR of $883.9M and adjusted EBITDA of $505M for 2025 (Q4 adjusted EBITDAR $237.7M; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $142.1M).
Negative Updates
Occupancy Pressure in Ramping and New Cohorts
Ramping facilities averaged 86.3% occupancy in 2025, down from over 93% in the prior year (cohort movement cited as a driver). New facilities averaged 81.1% occupancy vs 82.8% in 2024, reflecting onboarding/stabilization headwinds.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Profitability
Full year 2025 revenue of $5.29B, up ~29% year-over-year; Q4 revenue of $1.36B, up ~12% year-over-year. Full year net income $191.5M and diluted EPS $1.22. Record adjusted EBITDAR of $883.9M and adjusted EBITDA of $505M for 2025 (Q4 adjusted EBITDAR $237.7M; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $142.1M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full-year 2026 PACS guided revenue of $5.65–$5.75 billion (midpoint ~$5.70B, roughly +8% vs. 2025 revenue of $5.29B) and adjusted EBITDA of $555–$575 million (midpoint $565M, roughly +12% vs. 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $505M); the outlook incorporates assumptions of steady organic growth, margin expansion from improved occupancy and skilled mix, stable reimbursement, disciplined capital allocation and a nominal M&A cadence (modeled at about 5 facility acquisitions per quarter, ~20/year, typically acquired at ~60–70% occupancy with effectively 0% initial margin), and reflects that the company entered 2026 with a scaled platform and a conservatively leveraged balance sheet (year-end 2025 net leverage ≈0.3x).PACS Group Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 5.29B | 4.09B | 3.11B | 2.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.16B | 792.64M | 447.07M | 400.68M |
| EBITDA | 365.57M | 186.70M | 232.87M | 254.89M |
| Net Income | 191.54M | 55.76M | 112.87M | 150.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 5.58B | 5.24B | 3.51B | 2.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 197.02M | 157.67M | 73.42M | 66.12M |
| Total Debt | 3.20B | 3.63B | 2.85B | 1.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.63B | 4.53B | 3.41B | 2.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 946.77M | 709.55M | 96.13M | 63.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 298.82M | 300.88M | 17.91M | 14.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 404.22M | 367.34M | 63.70M | 92.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -264.02M | -442.68M | -172.79M | -75.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -68.99M | 117.48M | 129.59M | 12.35M |
PACS Group Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
35.38
Price Trends
35.70
Negative
34.29
Positive
23.19
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.87
Negative
56.01
Neutral
74.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PACS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.33, below the 50-day MA of 35.70, and above the 200-day MA of 23.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PACS.
PACS Group Inc Risk Analysis
PACS Group Inc disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PACS Group Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
If we fail to comply with applicable data interoperability and information blocking rules, its consolidated results of operations could be adversely affected. Q4, 2025
2.
Our business may be affected by the evolving regulatory framework for AI Technologies. Q4, 2025
3.
Actual or perceived failures to comply with applicable data protection, privacy and security laws, regulations, including HIPAA, standards and other requirements could adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition. Q4, 2025
PACS Group Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.22B | 11.78 | 6.85% | 12.60% | 1.97% | -35.20% | |
69 Neutral | $659.32M | 10.35 | 8.75% | 14.71% | -8.32% | -33.94% | |
60 Neutral | $5.56B | 31.30 | 22.70% | ― | 35.37% | -37.58% | |
57 Neutral | $591.92M | 1.25 | 94.41% | ― | 37.01% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $317.92M | -123.58 | >-0.01% | 14.10% | -2.38% | -75.49% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
PACS
PACS Group Inc
35.38
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280.43%
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PACS Group Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
PACS Group Appoints Patrick Conway to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, PACS Group Inc. appointed Patrick H. Conway, MD, MSc, the CEO of Optum and former senior leader at the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, to its Board of Directors as a Class III director, effective immediately and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.