PACS Group Inc (PACS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.03
• Revenue Growth: 35.37%
• EPS Growth: -37.58%
• Country: US
• Employees: 32,433
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Financial - Conglomerates
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 157,165,020
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 691,785
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,427,658
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.13
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 149.53
• 1Y Price Target: $47.00
• Price Target Upside: 40.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.07
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.75B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $38.00 ▲(13.64% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is held back primarily by financial risk signals—especially the reported 2025 collapse to zero operating/free cash flow and a debt-heavy balance sheet—despite strong growth and improved profitability. The latest earnings call offsets some of this with solid 2026 guidance and stated low net leverage, while technicals and valuation are both only moderate.

Positive Factors

Accelerating Revenue Growth

Sustained, accelerating top-line growth reflects successful organic demand capture and effective M&A integration, expanding scale in post-acute care. Durable revenue expansion improves ability to invest in operations, rehabbing acquisitions, and supports longer-term margin recovery if execution and occupancy trends persist.

High Clinical Quality & Mature Occupancy

Above-average CMS quality ratings and very high mature-facility occupancy create durable competitive advantage through stronger referral pipelines, better payer/regulatory positioning, and reputational moat. Quality-led demand supports steadier revenue and pricing power over multiple quarters and years.

Scale, Real Estate Ownership & Long Leases

Significant owned real estate and long average lease terms lower long-term occupancy/lease volatility and provide strategic optionality (buy, hold, or restructure). Scale across 321 facilities across states supports centralized ops, purchasing power and diversified cash flows, strengthening structural resilience.

Negative Factors

Abrupt Cash Flow Deterioration

A sudden collapse of reported OCF/FCF to zero undermines earnings quality and raises persistent funding risk. Over a multi-quarter horizon this limits self-funding for capex, acquisition stabilization and debt service, increasing probability of external financing, asset sales, or constrained capital allocation.

Highly Levered Historical Capital Structure

Although improving, very high historical leverage constrains financial flexibility, raises refinancing and interest-rate vulnerability, and amplifies downside risk if cash conversion weakens. Volatile returns on equity driven by low equity levels also suggest capital structure fragility over the medium term.

Acquisition Dilution & Ramping Cohort Risk

A growth model that repeatedly acquires low-occupancy assets creates recurring near-term dilution and requires sustained capital and operational effort to stabilize. Combined with rising operating/admin costs, this structural approach can pressure margins and cash flow for multiple quarters during roll-up cycles.

PACS Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PACS Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of post-acute healthcare facilities, professionals, and ancillary services. It provides senior care, assisted living, and independent living options in some of the communities. The company was founded by Jason Murray and Mark Hancock in 2013 and is headquartered in Farmington, UT.

How the Company Makes Money

PACS Group Inc generates revenue primarily through the sale of software licenses, subscription services, and consulting fees. The company offers tiered pricing models for its software products, allowing clients to select packages that suit their specific needs, which contributes to a steady stream of recurring revenue. Additionally, PACS engages in strategic partnerships with key players in the technology and service industries, enhancing its product offerings and expanding its market reach. Consulting services related to implementation, customization, and ongoing support further bolster its revenue streams. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with clients in various sectors, ensuring stable income from ongoing service agreements.

PACS Group Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and accelerating revenue growth and improved 2025 profitability/margins, but overall financial strength is constrained by a highly leveraged capital structure (debt still high vs. equity) and very weak/inconsistent cash generation (2025 operating and free cash flow reported as $0 after strong 2024).

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong and accelerating (2023: ~28%, 2024: ~31%, 2025: ~292%), and profitability improved meaningfully in 2025 with net income rising to ~$192M (vs. ~$56M in 2024). Gross margin has steadily expanded (2023: ~14% to 2025: ~22%), and EBITDA margin improved to ~5.9% in 2025. Offsetting this, overall margins remain modest for the revenue base (2025 net margin ~3.6%), and operating profitability shows some volatility year-to-year (notably weaker in 2024 vs. 2023 on net income), indicating execution/expense sensitivity.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint. Debt remains very high relative to equity despite improvement (debt-to-equity: ~29.6x in 2023, ~4.9x in 2024, ~3.4x in 2025), leaving limited balance-sheet flexibility. Return on equity improved to ~20% in 2025, but prior years show unusually high/volatile returns driven by very low equity levels (2022–2023), which raises risk around capital structure stability. Total assets grew (to ~$5.6B in 2025), but the company still looks debt-heavy for the equity cushion.

Cash Flow

Cash generation quality is a key weakness based on the latest data provided. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are reported as $0 in 2025, with free cash flow growth at -100%, a sharp deterioration from 2024 (operating cash flow ~$367M; free cash flow ~$301M). In 2024, free cash flow was strong relative to earnings (about 82% of net income), but earlier years were weaker (2022–2023 free cash flow was a low share of net income). The abrupt 2025 drop creates uncertainty around earnings-to-cash conversion and funding capacity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.29B	4.09B	3.11B	2.42B
Gross Profit	1.16B	792.64M	447.07M	400.68M
EBITDA	365.57M	186.70M	232.87M	254.89M
Net Income	191.54M	55.76M	112.87M	150.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.58B	5.24B	3.51B	2.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	197.02M	157.67M	73.42M	66.12M
Total Debt	3.20B	3.50B	2.85B	1.93B
Total Liabilities	4.63B	4.53B	3.41B	2.39B
Stockholders Equity	946.77M	709.55M	96.13M	63.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	298.82M	300.88M	17.91M	14.38M
Operating Cash Flow	404.22M	367.34M	63.70M	92.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-264.02M	-442.68M	-172.79M	-75.32M
Financing Cash Flow	-68.99M	117.48M	129.59M	12.35M

PACS Group Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 33.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PACS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.45, below the 50-day MA of 37.27, and above the 200-day MA of 21.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PACS.

PACS Group Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MSDL	72 Outperform	$1.23B	11.78	6.85%	12.60%	1.97%	-35.20%
NCDL	69 Neutral	$644.01M	10.35	8.75%	14.71%	-8.32%	-33.94%
PACS	60 Neutral	$5.26B	31.30	22.70%	―	35.37%	-37.58%
TREE	57 Neutral	$560.05M	4.77	94.41%	―	37.01%	―
PSBD	53 Neutral	$324.16M	-123.58	0.03%	14.10%	-2.38%	-75.49%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

PACS Group Inc Corporate Events

PACS Group Appoints Patrick Conway to Board of Directors

On March 4, 2026, PACS Group Inc. appointed Patrick H. Conway, MD, MSc, the CEO of Optum and former senior leader at the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, to its Board of Directors as a Class III director, effective immediately and serving through the 2027 annual meeting. The company highlighted Conway’s rare blend of clinical, regulatory, and large-scale health system leadership, noting that his deep experience in value-based payment models and quality measurement is expected to bolster PACS’s strategy as a leading skilled nursing and post-acute operator with above-average occupancy, strong CMS quality ratings, and 2025 revenue growth of 29.3%.

The most recent analyst rating on (PACS) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PACS Group Inc stock, see the PACS Stock Forecast page.

PACS Group stockholders endorse directors, auditor and pay

On December 19, 2025, PACS Group, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with approximately 95.29% of outstanding common shares represented online or by proxy as of the November 10, 2025 record date. Stockholders elected Taylor Leavitt and Jacqueline Millard as Class I directors to serve until the 2028 annual meeting, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the company’s independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and approved on an advisory basis both the compensation of named executive officers and the decision to hold future advisory votes on executive pay every year; these outcomes reinforce the board’s slate, confirm the current audit relationship, and signal investor support for the company’s governance and executive compensation practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (PACS) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PACS Group Inc stock, see the PACS Stock Forecast page.