Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $0.00
• Dividend Yield: 11.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 436.73K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.00
• Revenue Growth: 8.41%
• EPS Growth: -22.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Financial - Conglomerates
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 0
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 599,031
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 436,734
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $20.00
• Price Target Upside: 8.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund has a solid financial foundation with strong revenue growth and an appealing valuation. Despite recent cash flow challenges and declining net investment income, the company's strategic positioning and high dividend yield enhance its attractiveness. The neutral technical indicators suggest a stable price trend, while the positive earnings call outlook supports future potential, warranting a strong overall score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

MSDL reported NOI of $0.66, ahead of the estimate and last quarter's performance, as leverage continues to ramp and repays build upon its top-line impact.

Market Position

MSDL was lead or co-lead on 90% of its deals during the quarter, which were concentrated in the 475 / 500 spread context.

Negative Factors

Credit Impact

Credit consumed approximately $0.06 of NAV, as a previously recognized loss on Matrix was realized.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) is a private investment vehicle under Morgan Stanley Investment Management, specializing in providing bespoke financing solutions to middle-market companies. Operating primarily in the financial services sector, MSDL focuses on offering direct lending services, including senior secured loans, mezzanine financing, and unitranche loans, to support leveraged buyouts, acquisitions, and growth capital needs of its clients.

How the Company Makes Money

MSDL generates revenue through interest income and fees associated with the loans and credit facilities it provides to middle-market businesses. The fund typically charges interest on the principal amount of loans extended to borrowers, which is a primary source of income. Additionally, MSDL may earn arrangement fees, commitment fees, and other transaction-based fees for structuring and managing these financing deals. Strategic partnerships with private equity firms and other financial institutions can enhance deal flow and optimize capital allocation, further contributing to the fund's profitability. The performance of MSDL is also influenced by the creditworthiness of its borrowers and broader economic conditions impacting the middle-market sector.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund shows strong revenue growth and a robust balance sheet with no debt, indicating solid financial health. However, challenges include volatile EBIT margins and recent cash flow issues, suggesting a need for improved operational efficiency and cash management.

Income Statement

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund has shown robust growth in total revenue over the years, with a significant increase from $24 million in 2020 to $253 million in 2024. The net profit margin has also remained strong, with net income consistently climbing, indicating effective cost management and profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have been volatile, with EBIT at zero in 2024, which could indicate challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong financial position with zero total debt in 2024, indicating exceptional financial stability. The equity ratio remains solid, suggesting prudent financial management. However, the return on equity has been fluctuating, reflecting variable profitability relative to shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows mixed results. While the company has maintained positive free cash flow in previous years, 2024 saw a significant negative free cash flow, pointing to potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has also been negative recently, indicating discrepancies between earnings and cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	253.06M	366.34M	230.80M	121.63M	24.06M
Gross Profit	253.06M	316.51M	199.92M	100.50M	19.64M
EBITDA	0.00	343.90M	217.66M	104.27M	22.02M
Net Income	215.56M	231.01M	48.54M	83.25M	18.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.91B	3.31B	2.99B	2.49B	656.81M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.37M	69.70M	81.22M	74.15M	11.26M
Total Debt	1.97B	53.00K	40.00K	268.00K	198.00K
Total Liabilities	2.07B	1.59B	71.00K	57.00K	15.00K
Stockholders Equity	1.84B	1.72B	2.99B	2.49B	656.81M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-373.54M	185.78M	121.59M	67.69M	12.43M
Operating Cash Flow	-373.54M	185.78M	121.59M	67.69M	12.43M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-269.60M	-551.43M	-1.73B	-625.78M
Financing Cash Flow	376.19M	72.31M	436.90M	1.72B	624.58M

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.51
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.22, below the 50-day MA of 19.05, and below the 200-day MA of 19.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MSDL.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MSDL	80 Outperform	$0.00	8.50	10.59%	11.86%	8.41%	-22.34%
NCDL	75 Outperform	$801.48M	8.49	10.37%	12.97%	37.08%	-2.29%
IBTA	69 Neutral	$1.01B	20.81	26.94%	―	14.75%	77.59%
TREE	63 Neutral	$725.00M	―	-40.91%	―	51.65%	58.63%
PSBD	57 Neutral	$454.20M	27.69	3.46%	12.80%	0.36%	-80.23%
Sector *	56 Neutral	$6.40B	9.59	-29.56%	6.32%	10.97%	-32.97%
PACS	51 Neutral	$1.77B	―	117.42%	―	―	―

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Corporate Events

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Q1 Results Announcement

On April 8, 2025, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund announced it will release its first quarter financial results for the period ending March 31, 2025, on May 8, 2025, after market close. The company will hold an earnings call on May 9, 2025, to discuss these results, potentially impacting stakeholders’ insights into its financial health and operations.

Spark’s Take on MSDL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MSDL is a Outperform.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund shows strong financial stability with zero debt and a solid revenue base. Despite recent cash flow challenges and operational efficiency issues, the stock’s attractive valuation and positive technical indicators support a favorable outlook. Management’s confidence in navigating future challenges and opportunities further bolsters the stock’s potential.

To see Spark’s full report on MSDL stock, click here.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Reports Q4 2024 Results

On February 27, 2025, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending December 31, 2024. The company reported a net investment income of $50.7 million, a decrease from the previous quarter, and declared a regular dividend of $0.50 per share for the first quarter of 2025. The fund’s investment portfolio had a fair value of approximately $3.8 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.08x as of December 31, 2024. The announcement highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to providing shareholder value despite a slight decrease in net investment income and an increase in net expenses.