Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC)
NASDAQ:OXLC
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Oxford Lane Capital
(NASDAQ:OXLC)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-5.00% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
The score is weighed down primarily by weak recent cash flow and highly volatile operating results, compounded by bearish technical momentum. Earnings-call commentary was mixed but included a sharp NAV decline, unrealized losses, and a distribution reduction, which reinforces near-term risk; the very high dividend yield provides only partial offset given the elevated P/E.
Positive Factors
High cash yields from CLO equity
Sustained high cash distribution yields on CLO equity provide a durable source of income capacity for the fund. Because many CLO positions are floating-rate and senior/tranche-structured, attractive coupon characteristics support future distribution potential and total returns when credit metrics hold.
Negative Factors
Poor cash generation
Deeply negative operating and free cash flow across recent years undermines the firm's ability to fund distributions, reinvest organically, or delever without selling assets. Weak cash conversion is a structural risk for a yield-focused fund that must generate real cash to sustain payouts and capital activity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High cash yields from CLO equity
Sustained high cash distribution yields on CLO equity provide a durable source of income capacity for the fund. Because many CLO positions are floating-rate and senior/tranche-structured, attractive coupon characteristics support future distribution potential and total returns when credit metrics hold.
Read all positive factors
Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
N/A
Dividend Yield37.5%
Average Volume (3M)1.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth24.12%
EPS Growth-98.74%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding97,600,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,038,305
30 Day Avg. Volume1,613,719
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)4.97
P/FCF Ratio-3.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.00T>
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.42
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.75Price Target Upside57.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)5.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$541.07M
Oxford Lane Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. is a close ended fund launched and managed by Oxford Lane Management LLC. It invests in fixed income securities. The fund primarily invests in securitization vehicles which in turn invest in senior secured loans made to c...
How the Company Makes Money
OXLC makes money primarily by earning investment income and realizing gains from its portfolio of CLO-related investments. Its key revenue stream is cash distributions (interest and principal payments) received from CLO tranches it owns—most notab...
Oxford Lane Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presents a mixed picture: management is proactive and active in the secondary CLO market—deploying capital, leading resets, lengthening reinvestment maturities, and preserving capital by reducing distributions—while CLO yields and underlying loan default metrics remain relatively strong. However, these positives are outweighed by significant near-term financial deterioration, including a roughly 19% quarter-over-quarter NAV decline, $305 million of unrealized depreciation, meaningful decreases in GAAP and core net investment income, and market pressure from tightening loan spreads and lower reset/refinance volume. The firm's actions reflect a defensive and opportunistic posture to stabilize and capture future upside, but the current quarter's losses and NAV decline are material.Positive Updates
Active Deployment and Secondary Market Activity
Invested approximately $97.2 million in additional CLO equity and warehouse investments during the quarter and received approximately $85.5 million from sales and repayments. Led or participated in more than 10 resets/refinancings during the quarter and has historically participated in ~70 resets/refinancings, reflecting active portfolio management.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Net Asset Value (NAV)
Net asset value per share fell from $19.19 to $15.51 quarter-over-quarter, a decline of approximately $3.68 per share or about 19.2%, representing a material deterioration in NAV.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Active Deployment and Secondary Market Activity
Invested approximately $97.2 million in additional CLO equity and warehouse investments during the quarter and received approximately $85.5 million from sales and repayments. Led or participated in more than 10 resets/refinancings during the quarter and has historically participated in ~70 resets/refinancings, reflecting active portfolio management.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that as of 12/31/25 NAV was $15.51 (down from $19.19), Q3 GAAP total investment income was ~$117.8M (−$10.5M QoQ) consisting of ~$114.3M from CLO equity/warehouses and ~$3.5M from CLO debt/other, GAAP NII was ~$71.8M or $0.74/share (vs $81.4M/$0.84), core NII was ~$108.9M or $1.12/share (vs $120M/$1.24), net unrealized depreciation was ~$305.4M, net realized losses ~$7M, and net decrease in net assets from operations was ~$240.7M or $2.47/share. Portfolio and market metrics highlighted $263.1M of newly issued/acquired CLO equity awaiting initial distributions, weighted average CLO debt yield at current cost 17.3% (from 17.4%), weighted average effective CLO equity yield 13.8% (from 14.6%), cash distribution yield 19% (from 19.4%), ~$97.2M of additional CLO investments during the quarter and ~$85.5M received from sales/repayments. The Board declared monthly common stock distributions of $0.20/share for April–June 2026 to retain capital for deployment (while complying with RIC rules, including distributing at least 90% of taxable income), and management reiterated an opportunistic focus on the secondary market and resets/refis (led/participated in >10 this quarter and ~70 in 2025), lengthening the weighted-average reinvestment period from May 2029 to August 2029 amid market moves: U.S. loan price index 97.06%→96.64%, median CLO equity NAVs down ~2 points, loan-pool spreads 318→311 bps, 12‑month trailing default rate 1.5%→1.2%, CLO new issuance ~$55B and ~$74B of Q4 resets/refis.Oxford Lane Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 487.99M | 430.54M | 306.79M | 262.27M | 199.30M | 127.35M |
| Gross Profit | 487.99M | 430.54M | 306.79M | 262.27M | 199.30M | 127.35M |
| EBITDA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 3.75M | 48.46M | 235.11M | -171.29M | 125.88M | 289.93M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.84B | 1.75B | 1.34B | 1.41B | 934.86M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.10M | 295.35M | 42.97M | 21.74M | 34.67M | 90.87M |
| Total Debt | 710.56M | 486.92M | 195.60M | 194.56M | 193.58M | 328.11M |
| Total Liabilities | 785.40M | 883.25M | 579.85M | 542.89M | 460.99M | 338.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.86B | 1.96B | 1.17B | 793.15M | 947.16M | 596.25M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 816.12M | -703.80M | -123.79M | -91.56M | 547.45M | 124.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 816.12M | -703.80M | -123.79M | -91.56M | 547.45M | 124.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.44B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -932.95M | -131.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 432.61M | 956.17M | 145.03M | 78.63M | 329.30M | 87.14M |
Oxford Lane Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
10.00
Price Trends
9.06
Positive
10.89
Negative
12.46
Negative
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
63.41
Neutral
60.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXLC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.36, above the 50-day MA of 9.06, and below the 200-day MA of 12.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OXLC.
Oxford Lane Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $800.88M | 59.29 | 1.29% | 14.17% | 36.15% | -38.59% | |
58 Neutral | $295.14M | 10.64 | 5.42% | 16.61% | -3.09% | 200.66% | |
55 Neutral | $270.95M | 13.30 | 0.03% | 12.83% | 90.34% | -44.25% | |
53 Neutral | $330.58M | -5.23 | -12.44% | 21.13% | -91.81% | 78.46% | |
46 Neutral | $163.65M | -7.18 | -12.27% | 24.14% | -177.91% | 55.08% | |
43 Neutral | ― | 17.64 | 0.20% | 37.50% | 24.12% | -98.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
OXLC
Oxford Lane Capital
10.00
-6.23
-38.39%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
8.22
-0.03
-0.41%
PNNT
Pennantpark Investment
4.60
-0.78
-14.55%
OXSQ
Oxford Square Capital
1.91
-0.14
-7.01%
SCM
Stellus Capital
9.68
-1.36
-12.32%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
4.08
-1.51
-27.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.