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Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC)
NASDAQ:OXLC

Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) AI Stock Analysis

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OX

Oxford Lane Capital

(NASDAQ:OXLC)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
Oxford Lane Capital shows potential with a strong valuation profile due to a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield. Financial performance is hindered by volatility and cash flow concerns. Technical analysis is neutral, while the earnings call provided positive developments with some yield and default rate concerns. Overall, the stock is moderately attractive, particularly for income investors.

Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Oxford Lane Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOxford Lane Capital Corp. is a close ended fund launched and managed by Oxford Lane Management LLC. It invests in fixed income securities. The fund primarily invests in securitization vehicles which in turn invest in senior secured loans made to companies whose debt is rated below investment grade or is unrated. Oxford Lane Capital Corp was formed on June 9, 2010 and is domiciled in the United States.
How the Company Makes MoneyOxford Lane Capital makes money primarily through the interest and income generated from its investments in CLOs. The company's revenue model is based on acquiring equity and junior debt tranches of CLOs, which are structured to provide high yields. These CLOs are essentially pooled portfolios of loans, often made to corporations with lower credit ratings, which offer higher interest rates. Oxford Lane Capital earns returns from the cash flows distributed by these CLOs, including interest income and potential capital gains from selling these investments. The company's earnings are also influenced by the overall performance of the credit markets, interest rate fluctuations, and the management's ability to effectively select and manage its CLO investments. There are no significant partnerships disclosed that contribute directly to its revenue streams.

Oxford Lane Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Oxford Lane Capital's financial statements show significant volatility in income and cash flow, with a stable balance sheet. The income statement is erratic, while the balance sheet remains strong. Cash flow challenges highlight the need for improved cash conversion and stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Oxford Lane Capital's income statement shows significant volatility with total revenue swinging from negative to positive and back, indicating instability in revenue generation. The company managed a positive net profit margin in the latest period, but historical trends show inconsistent profitability. The gross profit margin is relatively high, suggesting good cost management when revenue is positive, but the erratic revenue growth rate is a concern.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with the equity ratio improving over time, indicating a solid capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting the company is not overly leveraged. Return on equity fluctuates significantly, reflecting the income statement's volatility. Overall, the balance sheet suggests financial stability with some risk due to income variability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in recent years, highlighting challenges in generating cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, indicating issues in converting income into cash. The company needs to improve cash flow stability to enhance its financial health.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
361.78M290.64M241.84M200.63M58.26M116.00M
Gross Profit
269.11M213.15M176.25M146.18M26.14M84.37M
EBIT
219.55M267.96M-139.48M147.96M306.21M-275.65M
EBITDA
219.55M267.96M-139.48M147.96M306.21M-275.65M
Net Income Common Stockholders
185.45M235.11M-171.29M125.88M289.93M-291.13M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
103.30M42.97M21.74M34.67M90.87M11.66M
Total Assets
352.30M1.75B1.34B1.41B934.86M531.94M
Total Debt
77.30M195.60M194.56M193.58M96.57M40.00M
Net Debt
-26.00M-42.97M172.82M158.91M5.71M28.34M
Total Liabilities
104.50M579.85M542.89M460.99M338.61M263.15M
Stockholders Equity
247.80M1.17B793.15M947.16M596.25M268.79M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
700.48M-123.79M-91.56M-385.50M-7.94M-271.22M
Operating Cash Flow
700.48M-123.79M-91.56M-385.50M-7.94M-271.22M
Investing Cash Flow
-985.63M0.00-472.86M-932.95M-131.95M-394.02M
Financing Cash Flow
464.54M145.03M78.63M329.30M87.14M261.41M

Oxford Lane Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.43
Price Trends
50DMA
4.49
Negative
100DMA
4.60
Negative
200DMA
4.60
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Positive
RSI
39.47
Neutral
STOCH
3.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXLC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.65, below the 50-day MA of 4.49, and below the 200-day MA of 4.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OXLC.

Oxford Lane Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
64
Neutral
$12.64B9.787.67%17015.08%12.23%-6.02%
61
Neutral
41.913.10%23.44%38.75%22.73%
61
Neutral
$283.44M5.6418.18%7.09%21.99%23.40%
51
Neutral
$168.44M605.13-0.32%17.87%-338.17%-97.99%
48
Neutral
$122.83M25.783.56%13.32%32.38%-90.38%
45
Neutral
$150.26M-9.96%90.08%-893.47%
BCBCG
41
Neutral
$39.68M-11.19%-13.79%62.04%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OXLC
Oxford Lane Capital
4.43
0.06
1.37%
NEWT
Newtek Business
10.76
-1.75
-13.99%
SSSS
SuRo Capital
6.38
2.21
53.00%
OXSQ
Oxford Square Capital
2.36
-0.26
-9.92%
GECC
Great Elm Capital
10.64
1.77
19.95%
BCG
Binah Capital Group
2.35
-4.28
-64.56%

Oxford Lane Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: -9.22%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call revealed an increase in total investment income and significant activity in CLO investments, alongside recognition for performance. However, these positives are countered by significant declines in net asset value, unrealized depreciation, and weakening market conditions. The mixed results lead to a neutral sentiment.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Total Investment Income
GAAP total investment income increased by approximately $6.7 million from the prior quarter, totaling approximately $121.2 million for the quarter ended March.
Strong Activity in CLO Investments
Oxford Lane invested over $520 million in CLO equity, debt, and warehouses, while participating in opportunistic resets and refinancings.
Recognition for Performance
Oxford Lane was awarded the best public closed-end CLO fund by Credit Flux at their London Conference.
Issuance of Common Stock
Issued approximately 60.7 million shares of common stock, resulting in net proceeds of approximately $300.5 million.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Net Asset Value
Net asset value per share decreased from $4.82 to $4.32 compared to the previous quarter.
Net Unrealized Depreciation and Losses
Recorded net unrealized depreciation on investments of approximately $187.7 million and net realized losses of approximately $8.5 million.
Decline in CLO Yields
The weighted average yield of CLO debt investments decreased from 16.6% to 15.9%, and the CLO equity investments yield decreased from 16.1% to 15.9%.
Weakening U.S. Loan Market
U.S. loan market performance weakened with the U.S. loan price index decreasing from 97.33% to 96.31%.
Decline in CLO New Issuance
CLO new issuance for the quarter totaled approximately $49 billion, reflecting a nearly $11 billion decline from the previous quarter.
Company Guidance
During the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, Oxford Lane Capital Corp. reported a decrease in net asset value per share from $4.82 to $4.32. The GAAP total investment income increased by approximately $6.7 million from the prior quarter, reaching $121.2 million. The company's GAAP net investment income was $75.4 million or $0.18 per share, while core net investment income was $95.8 million or $0.23 per share. The firm recorded net unrealized depreciation on investments of $187.7 million and net realized losses of $8.5 million, leading to a net decrease in net assets from operations of $120.8 million or $0.28 per share. The weighted average yield of CLO debt investments fell to 15.9%, and the cash distribution yield of CLO equity investments dropped to 20.5%. The company issued approximately 60.7 million shares, generating $300.5 million in net proceeds, and made additional CLO investments totaling $526.2 million while receiving $136 million from sales and repayments. The board declared monthly distributions of $0.09 per share for July, August, and September 2025.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.