Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: 37.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 24.12%
• EPS Growth: -98.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 1.12
• Shares Outstanding: 96,580,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,982,525
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,302,265
• PEG Ratio: -0.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 22.34
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.00T>
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.69
• 1Y Price Target: $15.75
• Price Target Upside: 93.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $512.55M

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▼(-1.84% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is weighed down primarily by weak recent cash flow and highly volatile operating results, compounded by bearish technical momentum. Earnings-call commentary was mixed but included a sharp NAV decline, unrealized losses, and a distribution reduction, which reinforces near-term risk; the very high dividend yield provides only partial offset given the elevated P/E.

Positive Factors

Moderate leverage and growing equity base

Oxford Lane's reported debt-to-equity roughly 0.17–0.25 and a growing equity base support balance-sheet capacity. That moderate leverage profile gives the manager room to deploy capital, absorb mark-to-market volatility and use modest financing to enhance returns without excessive solvency risk.

Active portfolio management and deployment pipeline

Management’s active activity—buying newly issued CLO equity and participating in resets—creates a pipeline of assets that can begin producing cash. A $263M pipeline of new holdings supports medium-term income expansion as those positions start distributing, reflecting durable sourcing and deployment capabilities.

Attractive asset yields and benign recent default metrics

The portfolio continues to carry high cash yields (mid-to-high teens) on CLO debt and equity tranches, while trailing default rates have improved to ~1.2%. Persistently attractive coupon cash flows and modest default pressure underpin the ability to generate durable distributable income in typical market conditions.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

Recent multi-year cash flow deterioration—deeply negative operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025—signals that reported earnings and yields have not translated into reliable cash available for dividends or reinvestment. This structural cash conversion weakness constrains flexibility and heightens reliance on external financing.

Large unrealized losses and NAV volatility

A roughly 19% quarter-over-quarter NAV decline and ~ $305M of unrealized depreciation demonstrate material mark-to-market risk in CLO equity positions. Persistent NAV volatility weakens capital cushions, can force defensive actions, and undermines the long-term reliability of common-share distributions and book value growth.

Distribution cuts and capital-raising/change to capital structure

Management reduced common payouts to preserve capital and concurrently moved to raise preferred capital via a term preferred offering. Both actions are structural: lower common distributions reduce shareholder income reliably, while preferred issuance alters capital costs and priority, potentially diluting common returns and shifting financing mix.

Oxford Lane Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oxford Lane Capital Corp. is a close ended fund launched and managed by Oxford Lane Management LLC. It invests in fixed income securities. The fund primarily invests in securitization vehicles which in turn invest in senior secured loans made to companies whose debt is rated below investment grade or is unrated. Oxford Lane Capital Corp was formed on June 9, 2010 and is domiciled in the United States.

How the Company Makes Money

OXLC makes money primarily from investment income generated by its portfolio of CLO securities. Its core revenue stream is interest and distribution income received from CLO tranches it owns (especially CLO equity, which typically receives residual cash flows after the CLO pays expenses, hedges, and interest/principal on more senior tranches). Because CLO collateral loans are commonly floating-rate, cash flows to the CLO—and ultimately to OXLC’s positions—tend to vary with short-term interest rates and with the credit performance of the underlying loan borrowers. In addition to recurring investment income, OXLC can generate earnings through realized and unrealized gains on its investments: if CLO tranche prices rise or if OXLC sells positions at prices above its cost basis, it records capital gains; if prices fall, it records losses. Portfolio management activities such as rotating investments, reinvesting cash flows, and participating in new CLO issuances or reset/refinancing transactions can affect both current income and gains/losses. As a closed-end fund, OXLC also uses leverage (including preferred shares and/or debt financing, as applicable) to potentially increase returns to common shareholders; it earns the spread when the income generated by leveraged assets exceeds the cost of that leverage, and it can be adversely impacted when funding costs rise or asset cash flows decline. The company’s net investment income and total return are therefore influenced by factors such as default and recovery rates in the underlying loan pools, CLO structure features (e.g., overcollateralization tests that can divert cash away from equity), market spreads and valuations for CLO securities, and the level of short-term interest rates.

Oxford Lane Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet leverage appears moderate and assets/equity have grown, but recent fundamentals are dominated by weak cash conversion (deeply negative operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025) and highly volatile results (sharp 2025 revenue decline and inconsistent earnings).

Income Statement

Profitability is strong on the surface, with high reported profit margins in most years and positive earnings in the latest annual period (2025). However, revenue is extremely volatile—2025 revenue fell ~74% year over year after a very strong 2024—and results have also swung into losses in prior periods (e.g., 2023). Overall, the income statement shows the ability to generate high profits in good markets, but with meaningful cyclicality and limited consistency in top-line performance.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.17–0.25 range, suggesting the company is not heavily debt-funded relative to equity. The equity base and total assets have grown materially over time, which supports balance-sheet capacity. The main weakness is profitability consistency on that equity base: return on equity is much lower in the latest year (2025) versus 2024, indicating earnings power can swing sharply.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key concern: operating cash flow and free cash flow are deeply negative in the latest two annual periods (2025 and 2024), and 2025 shows a very large cash outflow. While cash flow was positive in 2020–2021, the more recent pattern signals weak cash conversion and elevated risk that reported earnings are not translating into cash available for dividends, reinvestment, or de-levering. The trajectory of free cash flow is also unfavorable, with a sharp deterioration in 2025.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	449.03M	95.77M	279.52M	-126.63M	152.22M	58.26M
Gross Profit	156.84M	57.31M	246.66M	-158.43M	130.15M	26.14M
EBITDA	51.68M	48.46M	235.11M	-171.29M	125.88M	306.21M
Net Income	3.75M	48.46M	235.11M	-171.29M	125.88M	289.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.65B	2.84B	1.75B	1.34B	1.41B	934.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.10M	295.35M	42.97M	21.74M	34.67M	90.87M
Total Debt	710.56M	486.92M	195.60M	194.56M	193.58M	328.11M
Total Liabilities	785.40M	883.25M	579.85M	542.89M	460.99M	338.61M
Stockholders Equity	1.86B	1.96B	1.17B	793.15M	947.16M	596.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	816.12M	-703.80M	-123.79M	-91.56M	547.45M	124.01M
Operating Cash Flow	816.12M	-703.80M	-123.79M	-91.56M	547.45M	124.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.44B	0.00	0.00	0.00	-932.95M	-131.95M
Financing Cash Flow	432.61M	956.17M	145.03M	78.63M	329.30M	87.14M

Oxford Lane Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXLC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.25, below the 50-day MA of 10.37, and below the 200-day MA of 13.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OXLC.

Oxford Lane Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NMFC	61 Neutral	$796.37M	59.29	1.29%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
PNNT	59 Neutral	$318.64M	10.64	5.42%	16.61%	-3.09%	200.66%
SCM	55 Neutral	$276.74M	17.24	0.03%	12.83%	90.34%	-44.25%
TCPC	53 Neutral	$300.22M	-5.23	-12.44%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%
OXSQ	46 Neutral	$148.77M	-7.18	-12.27%	24.14%	-177.91%	55.08%
OXLC	43 Neutral	―	17.64	0.20%	37.50%	24.12%	-98.74%