Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] (OVLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $278.15M
• Dividend Yield: 1.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 13.12K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 5.50%
• EPS Growth: -5.19%
• Country: US
• Employees: 225
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.76
• Shares Outstanding: 8,388,221
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,026
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 13,119
• PEG Ratio: -0.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.76
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(19.17% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial quality (low leverage, historically strong profitability and steady cash generation), supported by a favorable technical uptrend and reasonable valuation. The main offsets are the sharp TTM revenue decline and questions around the sustainability of unusually high TTM margins, plus modest event-related risks from a CEO transition and a noted credit-loss provision/non-accrual loan.

Positive Factors

Conservatively levered balance sheet

Zero reported debt and consistent equity signal low financial leverage, giving durable capital flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, supports continued lending and dividends, and enhances shock-absorption for the next several quarters of operating or credit stress.

Consistent cash generation

Stable operating and free cash flow, with FCF tracking net income (~0.86–0.95 historically), underpins sustainable shareholder returns and reinvestment. Reliable cash conversion supports loan growth, dividend funding, and provisioning buffers over the 2–6 month horizon.

Scale growth to $2B in assets

Surpassing $2B in assets reflects durable franchise growth, broader deposit and lending base, and operational scale that can support diversified net interest income and fee opportunities. Scale helps spread fixed costs and sustain dividend policy over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Sharp TTM revenue decline

A 25% TTM revenue contraction materially reduces core earning capacity and signals weakening top-line momentum. If sustained, it can pressure net interest income, limit loan growth capacity, and force either higher risk-taking or cost cuts to preserve profitability over months ahead.

Unusual TTM net margin distortion

An implausibly high TTM net margin indicates earnings quality issues driven by one-offs or accounting effects, undermining confidence in recurring profitability. This complicates forecasting and capital planning and raises risk that near-term reported earnings will revert materially lower.

Emerging credit issue: CRE non-accrual

A material provision and a CRE loan placed on non-accrual reveal concentrated credit risk. Single-asset credit hits can erode reserves and capital, and signal potential portfolio vulnerabilities if CRE trends worsen, posing a persistent watch item for earnings and capital over coming quarters.

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oak Valley Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Oak Valley Community Bank that provides a range of commercial banking services to individuals and small to medium-sized businesses in the Central Valley and the Eastern Sierras. The company's deposits products include checking and savings, money market, health savings, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial real estate loans, commercial business lending and trade finance, and small business administration lending, as well as consumer loans consisting of automobile loans, home mortgage loans, revolving lines of credit, and other personal loans. In addition, the company provides online banking, remote deposit capture, mobile banking, merchant, night depository, extended hours, wire transfer of funds, and note collection services, as well as automated teller machines. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through seventeen full-service branch offices in Oakdale, Sonora, Bridgeport, Bishop, Mammoth Lakes, Modesto, Manteca, Patterson, Turlock, Tracy, Ripon, Stockton, Escalon, California, and Sacramento. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Oakdale, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Oak Valley Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investment securities. The bank earns money by providing loans to individuals and businesses, charging interest on these loans, and managing the spread between the interest rates it pays on deposits and the rates it earns on loans. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income through service charges, fees on deposit accounts, transaction fees, and other financial services. This includes fees from payment processing, online banking services, and other ancillary financial services. The bank's revenue is further supported by its relationships with local businesses and residents, as well as its strategic location in economically active regions of California.

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Historically strong profitability and solid cash generation with a conservatively levered balance sheet (no reported debt). Offsetting this, TTM revenue declined sharply and TTM net margin appears unusually elevated (suggesting non-recurring effects), reducing confidence in near-term earnings durability.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2020–2024, but TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue fell sharply (-25.0%) versus the prior annual period, pointing to a near-term growth setback. Profitability has historically been solid (2020–2024 net margins roughly high-20s to mid-30s), but TTM margins appear unusually high (net margin >100%), suggesting a likely non-recurring benefit or reporting distortion and reducing confidence in the sustainability of current earnings. Overall: strong historical profitability, but weakened recent top-line trajectory and less reliable TTM margin quality.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows no reported debt across periods and consistently positive equity, indicating low financial leverage and a cleaner capital structure. Returns on equity have been healthy (roughly 10%–19% historically; ~12.8% in TTM), though they have come off the 2022–2023 highs. A notable watch-out is the large drop in total assets in TTM versus 2024, which may reflect balance sheet shrinkage or a reporting classification change and could pressure future earnings capacity if it persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive, with operating cash flow and free cash flow remaining solid across years; free cash flow generally tracks net income well (about ~0.86–0.95 of net income in most periods, including TTM at ~0.86). Free cash flow growth is positive in TTM (+5.0%) after a modest decline in 2024, indicating some stabilization. However, operating cash flow relative to overall business size is low (coverage ratios around ~1.5%–2.0% in recent periods), and cash flow momentum has been uneven year-to-year.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	93.28M	89.45M	87.30M	66.77M	55.23M	50.92M
Gross Profit	79.78M	78.21M	81.46M	67.00M	54.90M	47.61M
EBITDA	31.04M	33.29M	41.40M	30.84M	22.82M	18.94M
Net Income	23.59M	24.95M	30.85M	22.90M	16.34M	13.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.00B	1.90B	1.84B	1.97B	1.96B	1.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	225.47M	213.55M	698.15M	943.24M	998.22M	410.74M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	1.80B	1.72B	1.68B	1.84B	1.82B	1.38B
Stockholders Equity	198.28M	183.44M	166.09M	126.63M	142.61M	129.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.08M	23.86M	31.16M	21.62M	10.21M	17.50M
Operating Cash Flow	24.95M	25.64M	33.06M	22.81M	11.19M	19.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-70.97M	-114.70M	-79.50M	-376.18M	103.76M	-285.65M
Financing Cash Flow	79.28M	41.25M	-166.62M	4.74M	436.66M	345.47M

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.21
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OVLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.34, above the 50-day MA of 29.98, and above the 200-day MA of 27.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.54 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OVLY.

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OVLY	75 Outperform	$278.15M	11.51	12.29%	1.99%	5.50%	-5.19%
FUNC	73 Outperform	$254.81M	10.40	13.36%	2.38%	11.72%	55.87%
WNEB	72 Outperform	$289.76M	18.82	5.51%	2.18%	7.37%	27.35%
NWFL	70 Outperform	$345.74M	10.50	12.18%	4.21%	-4.66%	-58.94%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FVCB	64 Neutral	$284.86M	13.02	8.87%	0.87%	16.68%	322.32%

Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] Corporate Events

Oak Valley Bancorp Announces Planned CEO Leadership Transition

Oak Valley Bancorp, the parent of Oak Valley Community Bank and Eastern Sierra Community Bank, operates a full-service community banking franchise with 19 branches across California’s Central Valley and Eastern Sierra regions, offering a broad range of loan and deposit products to individuals and small- to medium-sized businesses. On January 26, 2026, the company announced that long-serving Chief Executive Officer Christopher M. Courtney will retire as CEO of both the holding company and the bank effective June 30, 2026, after leading the institution’s growth from a two-branch de novo with $45 million in assets to a 19-branch bank with more than $2 billion in assets; he will remain on the boards to help guide strategy, while veteran executive and current President and Chief Operating Officer Richard A. McCarty, who has more than 26 years with the bank and has held multiple senior roles, will assume the combined President and CEO role, a move the board says reflects a carefully planned leadership transition intended to preserve the bank’s credit quality, community focus, and long-term growth trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVLY) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] stock, see the OVLY Stock Forecast page.

Oak Valley Bancorp Announces Q4 Results and Dividend

Oak Valley Bancorp reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, showing fourth-quarter net income of $6.3 million, or $0.76 per diluted share, down from the prior quarter but up from a year earlier, and full-year 2025 net income of $23.9 million, or $2.88 per share, a 4.1% decline from 2024. The earnings dip versus the prior quarter was driven by an $865,000 provision for credit losses tied to a single collateral-dependent commercial real estate loan placed on non-accrual in December, which lifted non-performing assets to $4.6 million and increased the allowance for credit losses to 1.08% of gross loans, though management said overall credit quality remains stable; at the same time, growth in earning assets fueled year-over-year increases in net interest income and margin, non-interest income rose on higher fee and securities-related revenues, expenses climbed with expanded operations, total assets surpassed the $2 billion milestone on strong loan and deposit growth and liquidity, and on January 20, 2026, the board declared a cash dividend of $0.375 per share payable in February 2026, signaling continued capital return to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OVLY) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oak Valley Bancorp [Ca] stock, see the OVLY Stock Forecast page.