Ontrak (OTRK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.10M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 743.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: -21.03%
• EPS Growth: 47.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 104
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): -1.35
• Shares Outstanding: 7,084,537
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,171,923
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 743,904
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.12
• 1Y Price Target: $1.50
• Price Target Upside: 240.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.50 ▲(13.64%Upside)

Ontrak's overall stock score is driven primarily by its challenging financial performance, with declining revenues, negative profitability, and high leverage posing significant risks. Technical analysis supports a bearish outlook, with indicators suggesting further downside potential. Valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings, although the earnings call provides some hope for future growth with strategic initiatives and enrollment increases. However, these positives are not enough to outweigh the current financial and operational challenges.

Ontrak Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ontrak, Inc. is a leading AI-powered and technology-driven healthcare company that focuses on providing personalized treatment programs to individuals with chronic conditions. Primarily operating in the healthcare sector, Ontrak partners with health plans and employers to improve member health and reduce costs through behavior change and medical adherence. The company offers a comprehensive suite of services that include care coaching, telehealth, and digital interventions aimed at addressing physical and behavioral health conditions.

How the Company Makes Money

Ontrak generates revenue through its contractual agreements with health insurance companies and employer groups. The company's primary revenue stream involves engaging members through its program and receiving payment based on successful outcomes, such as improved health metrics and reduced healthcare costs. Ontrak typically enters into value-based contracts where it is compensated for effectively managing and improving the health of individuals with chronic conditions. By reducing avoidable healthcare utilization and improving adherence to treatment plans, Ontrak shares in the financial savings realized by its clients, thus aligning its revenue model with the success of its health interventions. Additionally, strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and insurers enhance Ontrak's ability to reach more members and offer comprehensive care solutions.

Ontrak Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ontrak is facing severe financial challenges, with declining revenues, negative margins, and high leverage. The income statement highlights significant revenue decreases and deeply negative net profit margins. The balance sheet shows high debt levels and declining equity, while the cash flow statement reveals consistent negative cash flow, indicating liquidity issues.

Income Statement

Ontrak's income statement shows significant challenges with declining revenue and negative margins. The company has experienced a substantial decrease in revenue from previous years, with a negative revenue growth rate. Gross profit margin is moderately positive, but the net profit margin is deeply negative, indicating a struggle to achieve profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting ongoing operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed financial position with high leverage and minimal equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning, indicating potential risks associated with high leverage. Stockholders' equity has decreased significantly, affecting the equity ratio negatively. The return on equity is negative, further pointing to profitability challenges. On a positive note, the company has maintained some level of cash reserves, although these have declined over time.

Cash Flow

Ontrak's cash flow statement reveals consistent negative free cash flow and operating cash flow, indicating cash burn and potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow growth is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable due to negative cash flow and net income. Financing activities have provided some relief, but the sustainability of such reliance is uncertain.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.18M	10.85M	12.74M	14.51M	84.13M	82.84M
Gross Profit	5.87M	6.82M	8.80M	7.05M	52.92M	39.23M
EBITDA	-17.99M	-22.59M	-14.42M	-42.38M	-24.65M	-14.92M
Net Income	-27.92M	-25.49M	-27.92M	-51.57M	-37.14M	-22.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.27M	21.07M	19.85M	25.76M	93.68M	144.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.09M	5.71M	9.70M	5.03M	58.82M	86.91M
Total Debt	9.68M	8.50M	1.69M	11.26M	37.45M	47.97M
Total Liabilities	13.62M	11.21M	5.58M	20.08M	48.13M	83.95M
Stockholders Equity	4.65M	9.87M	14.27M	5.68M	45.55M	60.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.10M	-13.61M	-15.78M	-25.12M	-30.64M	-8.04M
Operating Cash Flow	-12.90M	-13.44M	-15.50M	-23.97M	-26.16M	-6.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-198.00K	-177.00K	-285.00K	-1.16M	-4.48M	-4.64M
Financing Cash Flow	10.78M	9.62M	15.77M	-31.11M	-6.63M	100.11M

Ontrak Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.93, below the 50-day MA of 1.30, and below the 200-day MA of 1.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 15.03 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OTRK.

Ontrak Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.53B	0.20	-61.87%	2.28%	16.72%	1.10%
PHIO	42 Neutral	$12.00M	―	-76.12%	―	―	81.71%
OTRK	41 Neutral	$3.10M	―	-215.66%	―	-21.03%	47.41%
GTBP	34 Underperform	$6.71M	―	-538.87%	―	―	-26.02%
AEON	24 Underperform	$9.25M	<0.01	13.29%	―	―	-261.69%
DRMA	15 Underperform	$4.02M	―	-206.26%	―	―	75.68%

Ontrak Corporate Events

Ontrak Faces Partnership Setback Amid Ongoing Prospects

On July 2, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. was informed by a prospective partner that it would not pursue a partnership, affecting up to 9,000 lives for Wholehealth+ and 20,000 for Engage. Despite this setback, Ontrak continues to engage with four prospects in advanced sales stages, representing up to 13,000 lives for Wholehealth+ and 20,000 for Engage, and has 20 additional active prospects representing approximately 15 million plan lives.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.

Ontrak Completes $3.24 Million Public Offering

On June 30, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. completed a public offering of common stock and warrants, raising approximately $3.24 million in net proceeds. The company plans to use these funds for working capital and general corporate purposes. The offering involved the sale of shares and prefunded warrants, each accompanied by four additional warrants, with an exercise price of $0.60 per share. The offering is part of Ontrak’s strategy to enhance its financial position and support its operations in the behavioral healthcare industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.

Ontrak Amends Note Purchase Agreement with Acuitas

On June 27, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. entered into a Seventh Amendment to its Master Note Purchase Agreement with Acuitas Capital LLC and U.S. Bank Trust Company. This amendment allows Acuitas to purchase up to $8.45 million in senior secured convertible promissory notes from Ontrak, with conditions tied to the company’s financial status and market conditions. Additionally, Humanitario Capital, an affiliate of Acuitas, exercised 500,000 pre-funded warrants on June 20, 2025, increasing Acuitas’ ownership to 52% of Ontrak’s common stock, though this was not considered a change of control due to prior ownership levels.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.

Ontrak Secures Financing Agreement with Acuitas Capital

On May 19, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. entered into an agreement with Acuitas Capital LLC to facilitate financial support through the purchase of senior secured convertible and non-convertible promissory notes. This arrangement allows Ontrak to request up to $5 million in principal amount for each type of note, with conditions ensuring the company’s efforts to raise capital through equity offerings. The agreement includes provisions for issuing warrants to purchase shares of Ontrak’s common stock, impacting the company’s financial strategy and potentially affecting its market operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.