Ontrak (OTRK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.16M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 22.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -21.03%
• EPS Growth: 47.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 104
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): -1.35
• Shares Outstanding: 4,217,848
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 21,139
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 22,404
• PEG Ratio: -0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 22.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 21.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.61
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.28
• 1Y Price Target: $4.00
• Price Target Upside: 179.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(4.90%Upside)

Ontrak's overall stock score reflects a company under significant financial strain. The most impactful factor is the dire financial performance, with declining revenues and high leverage posing substantial risks. The valuation metrics further highlight investor concerns with negative returns. While technical signals and strategic expansions offer some hope, they are overshadowed by the overarching financial instability.

Ontrak Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ontrak, Inc. is a leading AI-powered and technology-driven healthcare company that focuses on providing personalized treatment programs to individuals with chronic conditions. Primarily operating in the healthcare sector, Ontrak partners with health plans and employers to improve member health and reduce costs through behavior change and medical adherence. The company offers a comprehensive suite of services that include care coaching, telehealth, and digital interventions aimed at addressing physical and behavioral health conditions.

How the Company Makes Money

Ontrak generates revenue through its contractual agreements with health insurance companies and employer groups. The company's primary revenue stream involves engaging members through its program and receiving payment based on successful outcomes, such as improved health metrics and reduced healthcare costs. Ontrak typically enters into value-based contracts where it is compensated for effectively managing and improving the health of individuals with chronic conditions. By reducing avoidable healthcare utilization and improving adherence to treatment plans, Ontrak shares in the financial savings realized by its clients, thus aligning its revenue model with the success of its health interventions. Additionally, strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and insurers enhance Ontrak's ability to reach more members and offer comprehensive care solutions.

Ontrak Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ontrak is experiencing severe financial difficulties. Revenues have drastically declined, profitability remains elusive with persistent losses, and the company is heavily leveraged with high debt relative to equity. Cash flows are negative, underscoring significant operational challenges. Overall, the financial health is precarious, necessitating urgent strategic intervention.

Income Statement

Ontrak's income statement reveals significant challenges. Gross profit margins have been shrinking, indicating difficulty in controlling costs. Revenue has declined notably from $84.1M in 2021 to $10.8M in 2024, reflecting a severe contraction in business. Additionally, negative EBIT and net profit margins underscore persistent unprofitability, with net income deteriorating further to a loss of $79M in 2024. The company faces substantial hurdles in reversing these negative trends.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, with total debt surpassing equity, which could pose a financial risk. Stockholders' equity has decreased over the years, reflecting financial strain. However, the company has managed to maintain some liquidity with cash and short-term investments, although these have declined from previous periods. Overall, the balance sheet indicates financial instability and leverage challenges.

Cash Flow

Ontrak's cash flow statement highlights negative operating cash flows and free cash flows, indicating operational struggles. The free cash flow has remained negative over several years, and the company has relied heavily on financing activities, which may not be sustainable. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, further stressing liquidity issues. Overall, cash flow management remains a critical concern for the company.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.85M	12.74M	14.51M	84.13M	82.84M
	Gross Profit
6.82M	8.80M	7.05M	52.92M	39.23M
	EBIT
-17.50M	-20.68M	-43.18M	-19.03M	-14.92M
	EBITDA
-22.59M	-14.42M	-42.38M	-24.65M	-14.92M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-25.49M	-27.92M	-51.57M	-37.14M	-22.71M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
5.71M	9.70M	5.03M	58.82M	86.91M
	Total Assets
21.07M	19.85M	25.76M	93.68M	144.70M
	Total Debt
8.50M	1.69M	11.26M	37.45M	47.97M
	Net Debt
2.79M	-8.01M	6.23M	-21.37M	-38.93M
	Total Liabilities
11.21M	5.58M	20.08M	48.13M	83.95M
	Stockholders Equity
9.87M	14.27M	5.68M	45.55M	60.75M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-13.61M	-15.78M	-25.12M	-30.64M	-8.04M
	Operating Cash Flow
-13.44M	-15.50M	-23.97M	-26.16M	-6.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
-177.00K	-285.00K	-1.16M	-4.48M	-4.64M
	Financing Cash Flow
9.62M	15.77M	-31.11M	-6.63M	100.11M

Ontrak Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.52, below the 50-day MA of 1.52, and below the 200-day MA of 1.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OTRK.

Ontrak Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
PHIO	42 Neutral	$11.85M	―	-76.12%	―	―	81.71%
OTRK	41 Neutral	$6.16M	―	-215.66%	―	-21.03%	47.41%
GTBP	34 Underperform	$8.88M	―	-538.87%	―	―	-26.02%
AEON	24 Underperform	$10.30M	<0.01	13.29%	―	―	-261.69%
DRMA	15 Underperform	$4.68M	―	-206.26%	―	―	75.68%

Ontrak Corporate Events

Ontrak Secures Financing Agreement with Acuitas Capital

On May 19, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. entered into an agreement with Acuitas Capital LLC to facilitate financial support through the purchase of senior secured convertible and non-convertible promissory notes. This arrangement allows Ontrak to request up to $5 million in principal amount for each type of note, with conditions ensuring the company’s efforts to raise capital through equity offerings. The agreement includes provisions for issuing warrants to purchase shares of Ontrak’s common stock, impacting the company’s financial strategy and potentially affecting its market operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.