Ontrak (OTRK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.17M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.38M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: -21.03%
• EPS Growth: 47.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 104
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): -1.35
• Shares Outstanding: 7,084,537
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,406,377
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,383,625
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.14
• 1Y Price Target: $3.00
• Price Target Upside: 867.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 37 Underperform
• Price Target: $0.50 ▲(61.29%Upside)

Ontrak's overall stock score reflects severe financial and operational challenges. The decision to cease operations is the most impactful factor, signaling a terminal decline. Additionally, technical indicators and valuation metrics indicate a highly distressed situation, with minimal prospects for recovery.

Ontrak Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ontrak, Inc. is a healthcare technology company focused on improving health outcomes and reducing healthcare costs by identifying, engaging, and treating members with unaddressed behavioral health conditions. The company operates in the healthcare sector, providing technology-enabled, data-driven solutions that integrate with healthcare plans to offer personalized treatment programs. Ontrak's core services include delivering behavioral health care interventions through a combination of telehealth, digital engagement, and personalized care coaching.

How the Company Makes Money

Ontrak generates revenue primarily through contractual agreements with health plans and managed care organizations. The company's revenue model is based on a pay-for-performance structure, where Ontrak receives payments based on the health improvements and cost savings it delivers to its clients. Key revenue streams include fees for successful member enrollments in its programs and additional compensation tied to achieving specific health outcomes or cost reduction targets. Significant partnerships with major health insurers and healthcare providers contribute to Ontrak's earnings by expanding its reach and enabling the company to leverage its technology platform to manage a larger population of members.

Ontrak Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ontrak faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability, and high leverage. Revenue and profitability are deeply negative, with concerning debt levels and cash flow issues. These factors necessitate urgent strategic adjustments.

Income Statement

Ontrak's income statement shows significant challenges with declining revenue and negative margins. The company has experienced a substantial decrease in revenue from previous years, with a negative revenue growth rate. Gross profit margin is moderately positive, but the net profit margin is deeply negative, indicating a struggle to achieve profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting ongoing operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed financial position with high leverage and minimal equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning, indicating potential risks associated with high leverage. Stockholders' equity has decreased significantly, affecting the equity ratio negatively. The return on equity is negative, further pointing to profitability challenges. On a positive note, the company has maintained some level of cash reserves, although these have declined over time.

Cash Flow

Ontrak's cash flow statement reveals consistent negative free cash flow and operating cash flow, indicating cash burn and potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow growth is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable due to negative cash flow and net income. Financing activities have provided some relief, but the sustainability of such reliance is uncertain.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.85M	12.74M	14.51M	84.13M	82.84M
Gross Profit	6.82M	8.80M	7.05M	52.92M	39.23M
EBITDA	-22.59M	-14.42M	-42.38M	-24.65M	-14.92M
Net Income	-25.49M	-27.92M	-51.57M	-37.14M	-22.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.07M	19.85M	25.76M	93.68M	144.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.71M	9.70M	5.03M	58.82M	86.91M
Total Debt	8.50M	1.69M	11.26M	37.45M	47.97M
Total Liabilities	11.21M	5.58M	20.08M	48.13M	83.95M
Stockholders Equity	9.87M	14.27M	5.68M	45.55M	60.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.61M	-15.78M	-25.12M	-30.64M	-8.04M
Operating Cash Flow	-13.44M	-15.50M	-23.97M	-26.16M	-6.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-177.00K	-285.00K	-1.16M	-4.48M	-4.64M
Financing Cash Flow	9.62M	15.77M	-31.11M	-6.63M	100.11M

Ontrak Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.49, below the 50-day MA of 0.96, and below the 200-day MA of 1.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 23.61 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OTRK.

Ontrak Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DH	59 Neutral	$570.72M	―	-86.36%	―	-3.04%	-152.59%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.30B	0.27	-62.71%	2.44%	15.02%	0.60%
AMWL	50 Neutral	$116.20M	―	-44.04%	―	2.79%	58.22%
VSEE	46 Neutral	$20.21M	―	-3190.66%	―	―	-806.84%
TDOC	44 Neutral	$1.27B	―	-14.18%	―	-2.57%	79.86%
OTRK	37 Underperform	$2.17M	―	-215.66%	―	-21.03%	47.41%

Ontrak Corporate Events

Ontrak Ceases Operations After Failed Partnership

Ontrak announced that on July 2, 2025, a major potential partner decided not to pursue a partnership, prompting the board to assess its financial situation and funding prospects. Due to the inability to meet financial covenants and lack of viable funding options, the board decided to cease operations and terminate all employees by July 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.

Ontrak Faces Partnership Setback Amid Ongoing Prospects

On July 2, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. was informed by a prospective partner that it would not pursue a partnership, affecting up to 9,000 lives for Wholehealth+ and 20,000 for Engage. Despite this setback, Ontrak continues to engage with four prospects in advanced sales stages, representing up to 13,000 lives for Wholehealth+ and 20,000 for Engage, and has 20 additional active prospects representing approximately 15 million plan lives.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.

Ontrak Completes $3.24 Million Public Offering

On June 30, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. completed a public offering of common stock and warrants, raising approximately $3.24 million in net proceeds. The company plans to use these funds for working capital and general corporate purposes. The offering involved the sale of shares and prefunded warrants, each accompanied by four additional warrants, with an exercise price of $0.60 per share. The offering is part of Ontrak’s strategy to enhance its financial position and support its operations in the behavioral healthcare industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.

Ontrak Amends Note Purchase Agreement with Acuitas

On June 27, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. entered into a Seventh Amendment to its Master Note Purchase Agreement with Acuitas Capital LLC and U.S. Bank Trust Company. This amendment allows Acuitas to purchase up to $8.45 million in senior secured convertible promissory notes from Ontrak, with conditions tied to the company’s financial status and market conditions. Additionally, Humanitario Capital, an affiliate of Acuitas, exercised 500,000 pre-funded warrants on June 20, 2025, increasing Acuitas’ ownership to 52% of Ontrak’s common stock, though this was not considered a change of control due to prior ownership levels.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.

Ontrak Secures Financing Agreement with Acuitas Capital

On May 19, 2025, Ontrak, Inc. entered into an agreement with Acuitas Capital LLC to facilitate financial support through the purchase of senior secured convertible and non-convertible promissory notes. This arrangement allows Ontrak to request up to $5 million in principal amount for each type of note, with conditions ensuring the company’s efforts to raise capital through equity offerings. The agreement includes provisions for issuing warrants to purchase shares of Ontrak’s common stock, impacting the company’s financial strategy and potentially affecting its market operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTRK) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ontrak stock, see the OTRK Stock Forecast page.