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Oncotelic Therapeutics (OTLC)
OTHER OTC:OTLC
US Market

Oncotelic Therapeutics (OTLC) AI Stock Analysis

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OTLC

Oncotelic Therapeutics

(OTC:OTLC)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$0.07
▼(-12.50% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (pre-revenue characteristics, ongoing losses, and continued cash burn) combined with elevated balance-sheet leverage. Technicals also reflect recent weakness (negative MACD; price below key short/intermediate moving averages). Corporate actions around financing and debt milestones provide some support, but they are offset by ongoing dependence on capital markets and dilution risk; valuation signals are limited due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Management incentive alignment
Tying CEO equity vesting to conversion/repayment milestones aligns leadership incentives with balance-sheet repair and deleveraging. Over months this should focus management on securing durable financing, reducing leverage, and executing capital-structure fixes that improve long-term financial flexibility and governance.
Proprietary data platform launch
Launching PDAOAI establishes a durable non-clinical asset that can drive partnerships, dataset licensing, and translational research engagement. A platform that extracts biological signals without bespoke LLM training can become a sustainable competitive advantage supporting R&D productivity and collaborations over the medium term.
Completed convertible financings with registration rights
Refinancing prior notes and issuing convertible two-year notes with registration rights extends runway and improves investor protections. This durable funding step reduces near-term maturity pressure and provides optionality for financing execution while management advances clinical or platform milestones.
Negative Factors
Pre-revenue with persistent losses
The company remains effectively pre-revenue with ongoing operating losses, leaving no internal revenue engine to fund R&D or operations. Over the next several months this limits self-sufficiency, forces continued external capital needs, and keeps profitability distant absent clear clinical or commercial progress.
Elevated leverage for stage
Meaningful debt relative to equity increases financial risk for a low-revenue biotech: higher fixed obligations limit flexibility, raise refinancing risk, and can constrain strategic choices. Over a 2–6 month horizon elevated leverage amplifies vulnerability to failed financings or adverse cash-flow swings.
Ongoing reliance on dilutive financing
The company's repeated use of convertible notes and equity-linked financings creates structural dilution risk and ongoing dependency on capital markets. Over months this can erode shareholder value, complicate capital structure, and make long-term planning contingent on successful, potentially dilutive financings or asset monetizations.

Oncotelic Therapeutics (OTLC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Oncotelic Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOncotelic Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in developing drugs for the treatment of orphan oncology indications. The company's lead product candidate is OT-101, an antisense against TGF-ß2, which is in phase 3 clinical trials for pancreatic cancer and glioblastoma, as well as develops OT-101 for the treatment of various viruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome and coronavirus. It also develops OXi4503 for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes; and CA4P for the treatment of advanced metastatic melanoma. The company is headquartered in Agoura Hills, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyOncotelic Therapeutics primarily generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its therapeutic candidates. The company's revenue model includes securing funding through partnerships, grants, and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies and research institutions. Additionally, Oncotelic may earn revenue through milestone payments and royalties from successful collaborations and the eventual commercialization of its drug candidates. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by its ability to advance its drugs through clinical trials and achieve regulatory approvals, which can lead to increased licensing opportunities and partnerships.

Oncotelic Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial profile is weak: minimal-to-no revenue, persistent net losses/negative EBITDA/EBIT, and negative operating and free cash flow in all periods. While the latest TTM shows a smaller loss and reduced cash burn versus prior years, leverage has increased materially (debt ~ $17.4M; ~1.9x equity), raising financing and dilution risk.
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
The company has minimal-to-no revenue in most periods (including 2024 annual and 2025-09-30 TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), with persistent operating losses and negative EBITDA/EBIT across the dataset—typical of an early-stage biotech but still a clear earnings weakness. Net losses remain significant (TTM net loss of about $1.7M), and profitability is not yet evident. A notable positive is that the TTM loss is much smaller than the 2023 annual loss, suggesting spending discipline or a reduced cost base, but the lack of a consistent revenue engine keeps the income statement profile very weak.
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage for a pre-revenue/low-revenue biotech: total debt rises to ~$17.4M in the latest TTM period versus ~$9.0M in 2021, and debt is ~1.9x equity in TTM, which increases financial risk. Equity is still positive (~$9.1M TTM) and total assets are relatively stable (~$28.2M TTM), providing some balance-sheet support. However, returns on equity are negative in the most recent periods, reflecting that losses are eroding shareholder value, and the higher debt load reduces flexibility.
Cash Flow
24
Negative
Cash generation remains a key concern: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in every period shown, including TTM operating cash flow of about -$0.7M. The burn rate appears to be improving versus earlier years (e.g., 2021’s much larger cash outflow), and TTM free cash flow is less negative than 2023 and 2022, which is constructive. Still, the business is not self-funding, and negative operating cash flow implies continued reliance on financing (debt/equity raises) to sustain operations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.0070.00K0.000.001.74M
Gross Profit0.000.0070.00K-12.84K-61.51K1.74M
EBITDA-863.01K-3.55M-7.16M-5.60M-9.06M-7.61M
Net Income-1.67M-4.52B-7.90M17.82M-11.39M-11.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets28.16M26.68M30.01M36.12M23.61M23.66M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments409.00K86.13K170.41K241.45K568.77K474.02K
Total Debt17.41M13.09M12.57M11.26M8.99M5.43M
Total Liabilities20.08M19.20M18.40M16.92M15.45M11.18M
Stockholders Equity9.05M8.25M12.13M19.41M7.96M11.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-704.01K-740.27K-1.32M-1.45M-4.43M-2.81M
Operating Cash Flow-704.01K-740.27K-1.32M-1.45M-4.43M-2.81M
Investing Cash Flow0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Financing Cash Flow964.00K656.00K1.25M1.13M4.53M3.22M

Oncotelic Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.08
Price Trends
50DMA
0.09
Negative
100DMA
0.08
Negative
200DMA
0.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
49.83
Neutral
STOCH
71.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.08, below the 50-day MA of 0.09, and above the 200-day MA of 0.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OTLC.

Oncotelic Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Oncotelic Therapeutics disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oncotelic Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Oncotelic Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
58
Neutral
$56.17M-6.41-13.15%45.97%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
50
Neutral
$35.23M-1.75-104.58%1.18%
48
Neutral
$44.84M-1.11-14.92%72.81%
46
Neutral
$34.17M-18.29-38.38%65.22%
44
Neutral
$89.25M-2.61-2691.06%44.50%
40
Underperform
$12.97M-0.42-526.36%-2.46%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OTLC
Oncotelic Therapeutics
0.08
0.05
150.00%
GRCE
Grace Therapeutics
3.75
0.57
17.92%
LTRN
Lantern Pharma
3.06
-1.74
-36.25%
CALC
CalciMedica
0.67
-1.89
-73.83%
ELUT
Elutia
1.02
-1.60
-61.07%
MAIA
MAIA Biotechnology, Inc.
1.94
-0.06
-3.00%

Oncotelic Therapeutics Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Oncotelic Therapeutics Secures Convertible Debt Financing Agreement
Neutral
Jan 29, 2026

On January 23, 2026, Oncotelic Therapeutics secured $398,333 in convertible debt from Mast Hill Fund, issuing a one-year, 10% secured note convertible at $0.07 per share, together with 1,422,613 warrants at $0.15, and restricted the use of proceeds to working capital. The agreement, backed by most company assets and paired with registration rights for the conversion shares and warrants, underscores a leverage-heavy financing that could dilute equity while bolstering near-term liquidity for ongoing oncology programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTLC) stock is a Hold with a $0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncotelic Therapeutics stock, see the OTLC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Oncotelic Therapeutics Ties CEO Equity to Debt Milestones
Positive
Jan 26, 2026

On January 22, 2026, Oncotelic Therapeutics, Inc. entered into a restricted stock agreement with chief executive officer Dr. Vuong Trieu that ties his equity compensation to specific capital-structure improvement milestones. The company will issue up to 26,512 shares of Series A Preferred Stock, each convertible into 1,000 common shares, with vesting contingent on four milestones, including conversion of $2.175 million in 2023 notes into new 2025 Units, securing additional convertible debt from Mast Hill Fund alongside achieving a $45 million market capitalization, converting about $3.3 million of related-party short-term loans into 2025 Units, and repaying $2.175 million in notes underlying those units. Dr. Trieu has already met the first milestone and will receive 4,426 preferred shares, with a further 22,086 shares vesting in three equal tranches as later milestones are reached; the total potential issuance represents about 4.99% of current common shares, structured with anti-dilution protection to maintain at least 1.663% per milestone, underscoring a strong incentive alignment around balance-sheet repair and debt restructuring that could materially affect existing shareholders and the company’s financing profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTLC) stock is a Hold with a $0.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncotelic Therapeutics stock, see the OTLC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Oncotelic Therapeutics Lowers Milestone Thresholds to Aid Uplisting
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On January 6, 2026, Oncotelic Therapeutics, Inc. announced amendments to an independent contractor agreement with Jefferson Capital Ventures, LLC, originally dated August 6, 2025, and to a restricted stock award agreement dated November 17, 2025, with its CEO, Dr. Vuong Trieu, both tied to the achievement of corporate milestones. The company lowered the market capitalization threshold for the first milestone from $100 million to $45 million, affecting Jefferson’s restricted common stock awards and Dr. Trieu’s restricted preferred stock awards, while leaving all other milestone terms unchanged; this move is intended to support execution of Oncotelic’s ongoing initiatives, including using its equity line with Mast Hills, advancing future financing arrangements, and working toward uplisting its stock to a nationally recognized exchange, thereby potentially improving its capital access and strategic positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTLC) stock is a Hold with a $0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncotelic Therapeutics stock, see the OTLC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Oncotelic revises incentive agreement to support financing strategy
Positive
Jan 6, 2026

On December 31, 2025, Oncotelic Therapeutics, Inc. amended its independent contractor agreement with Jefferson Capital Ventures, LLC, changing the threshold for Jefferson to earn restricted stock awards from a market capitalization milestone of $100 million on a single trading day’s close to $45 million on a single trading day’s close, while leaving all other terms unchanged. The revised milestone is intended to support Oncotelic’s ongoing initiatives to activate its equity line with Mast Hills, advance future financing through AGP, and work with Sichenzia, Ross and Ferrell on a potential uplisting to a major stock exchange, signaling a strategic effort to make incentive-based equity awards more attainable and to reinforce the company’s capital markets strategy and corporate growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTLC) stock is a Hold with a $0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncotelic Therapeutics stock, see the OTLC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Oncotelic Therapeutics completes final tranche of private financing
Positive
Jan 6, 2026

On December 31, 2025, Oncotelic Therapeutics, Inc. completed the third and final tranche of a private offering, issuing 44 units to 22 accredited investors under subscription agreements, while two prior investors holding a total of seven units from a 2023 private placement memorandum did not participate. Each unit in the offering consists of a $25,000 note bearing 12% annual interest maturing two years after the final closing, convertible into either 250,000 shares of Oncotelic common stock at $0.10 per share or 25,000 shares of EdgePoint AI, Inc. common stock at $1.00 per share, along with associated warrants to purchase additional shares of either Oncotelic or EdgePoint at preset prices, all subject to anti-dilution protections. As part of the transaction, the company treated existing 2023 notes as paid off and rolled investor contributions into the new notes, extended the life of previously issued 2023 warrants by two years, and granted investors the option to convert EdgePoint shareholdings into Oncotelic stock at an exchange rate of 10 Oncotelic shares for each EdgePoint share, potentially aligning interests more directly with the parent company; it also entered into a registration rights agreement covering the common shares issued and issuable under the financing, signaling a move to enhance liquidity and investor protections for these securities. The securities were issued under an exemption from Securities Act registration requirements, reinforcing the company’s reliance on private capital markets to support its capital structure and strategic relationship with its AI-focused subsidiary.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTLC) stock is a Hold with a $0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncotelic Therapeutics stock, see the OTLC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Oncotelic completes private convertible note and warrant financing
Positive
Dec 30, 2025

On December 23, 2025, Oncotelic Therapeutics, Inc. completed subscription agreements with 21 accredited investors for 32 units in a private offering of up to 500 units, each consisting of a $25,000, 12% two-year note convertible into either Oncotelic or EdgePoint AI stock, along with associated warrants in both companies subject to anti-dilution protections. The transaction, which also refinances the company’s 2023 PPM note and extends prior warrant expirations by two years while allowing investors to swap EdgePoint shares into Oncotelic stock, enhances capital flexibility and investor optionality and is supported by a registration rights agreement for underlying Oncotelic shares, potentially strengthening the company’s financing position without relying on public registration at this stage.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTLC) stock is a Hold with a $0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncotelic Therapeutics stock, see the OTLC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Oncotelic Therapeutics Launches PDAOAI Biomedical Data Platform
Positive
Dec 23, 2025

On December 22, 2025, Oncotelic Therapeutics, Inc. announced that it had opened access to PDAOAI, its proprietary evidence-interrogation platform built to extract biologically meaningful signals from large, complex biomedical datasets without the need to train bespoke large language models on proprietary data. The company also made available to researchers a comprehensive TGF-β literature corpus of more than 125,000 PubMed abstracts via a dedicated Discord research channel, a move that could broaden scientific engagement with its technology and strengthen its position in data-driven oncology and translational research ecosystems.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Oncotelic Therapeutics Completes Subscription Agreement with Investors
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025

On December 4, 2025, Oncotelic Therapeutics completed a subscription agreement with accredited investors, issuing 11 units as part of a larger offering of up to 500 units. Each unit includes a note convertible into shares of Oncotelic or its subsidiary EdgePoint AI, along with warrants to purchase additional shares. This strategic financial move aims to enhance investment flexibility and extend the terms of previous warrants, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and investor relations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 27, 2026