CalciMedica (CALC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.68M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 81.97K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.37
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 95.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 13,971,990
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 189,656
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 81,965
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.07K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.17
• 1Y Price Target: $16.00
• Price Target Upside: 280.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 39 Underperform
• Price Target: ―

CalciMedica's low stock score reflects its financial challenges, including zero revenue and negative cash flows. However, technical indicators suggest the stock is currently oversold, providing a potential entry point for risk-tolerant investors. The promising results from the Auxora trial offer a positive outlook, potentially improving future financial performance.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

Auxora advances in AKI with a positive read-through demonstrating a 62.7% relative reduction in mortality at day 30, which persisted through day 60, for patients treated with Auxora versus placebo.

Market Opportunity

With over 1 million patients in the AKI Auxora target market, there is anticipation of a significant market opportunity exceeding $10 billion.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

CalciMedica announced 1Q25 financial results, posting EPS of ($0.36), compared to our estimate of ($0.33) and consensus of ($0.31).

CalciMedica Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CalciMedica (CALC) is a biotechnology company focused on the development of therapies to treat inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. The company specializes in targeting calcium release-activated calcium (CRAC) channels, which play a crucial role in the activation of immune cells. CalciMedica's lead product candidate is Auxora, a CRAC channel inhibitor designed to treat severe inflammatory diseases such as acute pancreatitis and COVID-19 pneumonia.

How the Company Makes Money

CalciMedica generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company may earn money through partnerships, collaborations, and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. These arrangements often involve upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales. Additionally, CalciMedica may receive funding from government grants or research institutions to support its clinical trials and drug development programs. The success of its lead product candidate, Auxora, in clinical trials and its eventual approval and commercialization would be a significant source of revenue for the company.

CalciMedica Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CalciMedica faces significant financial challenges, primarily due to the absence of revenue and persistent operational losses. The reduction in debt and consistent asset base are positive signs, but the shrinking equity and negative cash flows highlight the need for strategic financial and operational improvements.

Income Statement

CalciMedica has consistently reported zero revenue over the years, reflecting challenges in commercializing its biotechnology pipeline. Despite some reduction in net losses, the company continues to operate with substantial negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating persistent operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a positive trend in reducing debt, with the company having zero total debt in recent years. However, the equity has significantly diminished from 2019 to 2024, impacting the equity ratio negatively. The company maintains a stable asset base, which is positive, but the shrinking equity indicates potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow remains negative, and the operating cash flow is consistently negative as well, reflecting cash burn typical for early-stage biotech firms. Despite improvements in free cash flow growth from 2023 to 2024, the overall cash flow position highlights the need for efficient cash management and potential additional financing.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	0.00	-58.00K	-52.00K	-519.00K	-395.00K
EBITDA	-13.64M	-34.19M	-7.64M	-35.30M	-27.14M
Net Income	-13.70M	-34.36M	-35.60M	-35.82M	-27.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.79M	12.19M	39.67M	69.09M	101.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.67M	11.24M	39.13M	63.67M	95.03M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	203.00K	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	5.38M	4.03M	3.70M	4.07M	7.01M
Stockholders Equity	14.41M	8.16M	35.97M	65.02M	94.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-21.15M	-25.81M	-25.13M	-31.99M	-33.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-21.15M	-25.73M	-22.88M	-31.50M	-32.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.42M	8.88M	26.96M	10.75M	-42.56M
Financing Cash Flow	27.97M	20.90M	-139.00K	695.00K	92.17M

CalciMedica Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CALC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.24, above the 50-day MA of 1.95, and above the 200-day MA of 2.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.88 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CALC.

CalciMedica Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LGVN	61 Neutral	$26.12M	―	-167.57%	―	127.51%	71.16%
IPA	54 Neutral	$83.29M	―	-121.65%	―	-0.71%	-169.29%
OVID	53 Neutral	$49.78M	―	-36.31%	―	15.73%	51.00%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.62B	0.05	-63.03%	2.44%	16.33%	0.31%
CALC	39 Underperform	$58.68M	―	-134.15%	―	―	95.48%
TENX	36 Underperform	$25.11M	―	-39.78%	―	―	84.17%
CMMB	33 Underperform	$20.75M	―	-112.99%	―	―	57.93%

CalciMedica Corporate Events

CalciMedica Highlights Auxora’s Potential in COVID-19 Treatment

On March 4, 2025, CalciMedica announced new data from a post-hoc analysis of the Phase 2 CARDEA trial, highlighting Auxora’s potential in reducing mortality among patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia and acute kidney injury (AKI). The analysis revealed a 62.7% relative reduction in mortality for Auxora-treated patients compared to placebo, indicating a significant therapeutic benefit. This data underscores the potential of CRAC channel inhibition in treating AKI and supports ongoing clinical trials, which may enhance CalciMedica’s positioning in the biopharmaceutical industry.