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Onterris
(NYSE:ONT)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▼(-23.72% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
ONT scores below average primarily due to weak technical trends (price below all major moving averages, negative MACD, low RSI) and a financial profile that is improving but still pressured by TTM revenue decline and ongoing net losses alongside higher leverage. The earnings call provides some offset via margin expansion, record EBITDA guidance, and a stronger H2 cash flow plan, but the reduced top-line outlook and strategic-review uncertainty keep the overall score restrained.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation (OCF and FCF positive)
Sustained positive operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable funding for operations, bolt‑on M&A, and buybacks without immediate reliance on equity. Over 2–6 months this supports liquidity and execution of strategic initiatives even if revenue is volatile.
Negative Factors
Top-line weakness and downward guidance
Material revenue decline and a sizable guidance cut reflect weaker demand in emergency response and pass‑through activity. Persistent topline pressure reduces operating leverage and makes margin gains harder to sustain absent a return to historical revenue levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation (OCF and FCF positive)
Sustained positive operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable funding for operations, bolt‑on M&A, and buybacks without immediate reliance on equity. Over 2–6 months this supports liquidity and execution of strategic initiatives even if revenue is volatile.
Read all positive factors
Onterris Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue down by service line (for example remediation, monitoring, or consulting), showing which parts of the business drive growth and which rely on cyclical end-markets. Helps investors see whether Montrose’s revenue mix is diversifying or concentrated in higher-risk areas.
Breaks revenue down by service line (for example remediation, monitoring, or consulting), showing which parts of the business drive growth and which rely on cyclical end-markets. Helps investors see whether Montrose’s revenue mix is diversifying or concentrated in higher-risk areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOnterris (ONT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$618.77M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)633.78K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth-0.87%
EPS Growth78.75%
CountryUS
Employees3,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.30
Shares Outstanding35,117,424
10 Day Avg. Volume522,640
30 Day Avg. Volume633,777
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.72
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.95
P/FCF Ratio8.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.93Price Target Upside153.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$766.44M
Onterris Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. functions as a specialized provider of environmental services, with a core focus on air quality assessment and comprehensive laboratory analysis. The firm organizes its activities across three primary divisions: ...
Onterris Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: revenue and segment topline performance were weaker than prior year due to an unusually low emergency response environment and lower pass‑through revenue, and first‑half operating cash flow was negative. Offsetting these headwinds, management highlighted durable margin expansion, successful cost optimization, a record‑setting adjusted EBITDA outlook, a strong H2 cash flow plan, visible project backlog in testing and Consulting & Treatment, and continued disciplined capital allocation (share repurchases and planned bolt‑on M&A). Given the substantial operational improvements and cash‑flow guidance that counterbalance meaningful revenue shortfalls and near‑term uncertainty from a Board strategic review, the tone of the call is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Improved Profitability and Record EBITDA Guidance
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $31.9 million in Q2 with an EBITDA margin of 17.1% (up from 16.9% in prior-year quarter). Updated full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $117 million to $120 million; company noted every outcome in this range would represent a new record. At the midpoint, management expects ~150 basis points of margin expansion versus last year and ~50 basis points of improvement versus original 2026 guidance.
Negative Updates
Q2 Revenue Decline Driven by Low Emergency Response Activity
Second quarter revenue was $186.7 million, down $47.9 million year‑over‑year. Management cited historically low environmental emergency response and reduced recovery services as the primary drivers. Prior quarter (Q2 2025) included approximately $53.6 million of revenue from a single large emergency event, which amplified the year‑over‑year comparison.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Profitability and Record EBITDA Guidance
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $31.9 million in Q2 with an EBITDA margin of 17.1% (up from 16.9% in prior-year quarter). Updated full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $117 million to $120 million; company noted every outcome in this range would represent a new record. At the midpoint, management expects ~150 basis points of margin expansion versus last year and ~50 basis points of improvement versus original 2026 guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance to $740–$790 million of revenue and $117–$120 million of consolidated adjusted EBITDA (≈$9M midpoint reduction), implying ~15.5% EBITDA margin at the midpoint (≈150 bps YoY expansion; +50 bps vs. prior guide); the revision reflects ~$35–$55M lower pass‑through revenue (~$45M midpoint), ~$35–$45M lower emergency‑response revenue (~$40M midpoint) and $15–$25M of other impacts (~$20M), with pass‑through reducing EBITDA by ≈$4.5M, emergency response ≈$10M, and other items netting a $5.5M benefit. For Q3 they expect $190–$210M of revenue and a 17–18% EBITDA margin at the midpoint. Despite the lower top line, Q2 results were $186.7M revenue and $31.9M adjusted EBITDA (17.1%); Consulting & Treatment Q2 revenue was $125.6M (prior $171.7M) with a 22.2% EBITDA margin, Measurement & Analysis was $61.1M with a 26.2% margin. Management still expects strong cash generation (operating cash flow ≈60% of full‑year EBITDA), $70–$80M of operating cash flow in 2H26, year‑end leverage of ~2.5% (vs. 3.2x at June 30 under the credit facility), available liquidity $160.8M, and noted YTD activity including repurchasing 1.6M shares for $30M and paying ~$10–11M of contingent acquisition consideration.Onterris Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 773.34M | 830.54M | 696.39M | 624.21M | 544.42M | 546.41M |
| Gross Profit | 287.96M | 283.43M | 278.20M | 240.31M | 192.53M | 177.38M |
| EBITDA | 70.55M | 81.70M | 25.88M | 31.93M | 32.44M | 40.96M |
| Net Income | -11.16M | -843.00K | -62.31M | -30.86M | -31.82M | -25.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 967.24M | 981.30M | 990.35M | 816.79M | 791.91M | 833.09M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.72M | 11.22M | 12.94M | 23.24M | 89.83M | 146.74M |
| Total Debt | 418.63M | 359.03M | 281.00M | 210.34M | 202.12M | 205.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 536.90M | 530.12M | 544.09M | 495.53M | 478.73M | 516.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | 430.34M | 451.18M | 446.26M | 321.25M | 313.19M | 316.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 52.07M | 91.16M | 902.00K | 23.09M | 10.65M | 30.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 74.60M | 107.48M | 22.23M | 56.02M | 20.65M | 37.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.03M | -15.84M | -138.04M | -101.62M | -38.69M | -71.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -53.59M | -93.12M | 106.00M | -20.11M | -38.76M | 146.10M |
Onterris Technical Analysis
Negative
21.63
Price Trends
19.02
Negative
19.23
Negative
22.05
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.75
Positive
45.10
Neutral
42.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.08, above the 50-day MA of 19.02, and below the 200-day MA of 22.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ONT.
Onterris Risk Analysis
Onterris disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Onterris reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Onterris Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
52 Neutral | $368.56M | -15.37 | -40.97% | ― | -4.73% | 0.30% | |
49 Neutral | $618.77M | -58.73 | -2.51% | ― | -0.87% | 78.75% | |
49 Neutral | $580.43M | -1.35 | 213.35% | ― | ― | ― | |
46 Neutral | $33.75M | -1.95 | -47.42% | ― | -8.37% | 32.03% | |
42 Neutral | $82.99M | 0.60 | 230.00% | ― | 43.84% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
ONT
Onterris
17.62
-10.34
-36.98%
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Onterris Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Onterris Cuts Guidance and Begins Board-Led Strategic Review
Negative
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Onterris reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $186.7 million, down from $234.5 million a year earlier, as environmental emergency response and recovery services fell to historically low levels following an unusually strong pr...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Onterris Board Adopts Shareholder Rights Protection Plan
Neutral
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Onterris, Inc.’s board adopted a shareholder rights plan by declaring a dividend of one preferred share purchase right for each common share outstanding, payable to holders of record on August 17, 2026. Each right allows t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.