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LanzaTech Global (LNZA)
NASDAQ:LNZA
US Market

LanzaTech Global (LNZA) AI Stock Analysis

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LanzaTech Global

(NASDAQ:LNZA)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$0.50
▲(85.19%Upside)
The overall stock score is primarily influenced by significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and high leverage. Technical analysis shows neutral momentum, while valuation reflects ongoing unprofitability. Corporate events suggest efforts towards cost efficiency, but effectiveness remains uncertain.
Positive Factors
Cash management
LNZA shored up liquidity with $40MM convertible notes with a $1.5/sh convertible rate.
Partnership strategy
LNZA is expanding its strategy to partnering with capital providers to get projects to FID, a useful shift following limited project sanctions this year.
Revenue guidance
LNZA guided 4Q24 revenue to ~$70MM, bringing FY24 revenues to $108MM, above the prior guide of $90-105MM.
Negative Factors
Gross margins
Gross margins fell from 68% in 2Q24 to 18% in 3Q24, with 2Q benefiting from revenue related to LanzaJet equity recognition.
Project progression
LNZA has only moved 1 project from advanced engineering to construction this year.
R&D expense
R&D expense was $4MM above TD Cowen forecast.

LanzaTech Global (LNZA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

LanzaTech Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLanzaTech Global (LNZA) is an innovative biotechnology company specializing in carbon recycling technology. Operating at the intersection of energy, biotechnology, and sustainability sectors, LanzaTech develops and employs proprietary processes to convert industrial waste gases into valuable chemicals and fuels. The company's core technology utilizes microbial fermentation to transform waste emissions into ethanol and other chemical products, contributing to a reduced carbon footprint and fostering a circular economy.
How the Company Makes MoneyLanzaTech Global generates revenue primarily through licensing its proprietary carbon recycling technology to industrial partners and governments seeking to reduce their carbon emissions. The company also engages in joint ventures and partnerships with manufacturers in sectors such as steel, refining, and petrochemicals to implement its technology on-site, thereby earning a share of the resulting product sales. Additional revenue streams include the sale of carbon-recycled products, such as ethanol, and potential government grants or incentives aimed at promoting sustainable and environmentally friendly technologies.

LanzaTech Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: 3.85%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While the company faced challenges with missing revenue targets and increased operating expenses, it highlighted strong future potential with new projects, partnerships, and expansions into new markets like nutritional protein. The overall sentiment reflects a strategic pivot towards capturing more value and ensuring long-term growth despite current hurdles.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Position for 2025
LanzaTech is well-positioned for 2025 with significant project developments like Project Drake and collaborations with global partners. The company expects substantial growth in ethanol feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects.
New Revenue Streams and Partnerships
LanzaTech is evolving to capture more value by developing its own projects and forming partnerships with capital partners like Brookfield Asset Management, which committed $500 million for projects.
Ethanol Offtake Agreement with ArcelorMittal
A new agreement with ArcelorMittal includes a short-term contract with $6 million annual revenue potential and a 5-year contract generating $10-20 million per year, enhancing access to ethanol volumes.
Expansion into Nutritional Protein Market
LanzaTech announced its ability to produce single-cell protein, targeting the $1 trillion alternative protein market, with applications in animal feed, pet food, and human nutrition.
Negative Updates
Revenue Misses Target
Third quarter revenue was $9.9 million, about $7 million below target, primarily due to the delay in a LanzaJet sublicense event and depressed ethanol pricing.
Challenging Market Dynamics
Ethanol prices were depressed in key markets, particularly in China, impacting CarbonSmart revenue, which despite doubling quarter-over-quarter, was still below expectations.
Higher Operating Expenses
Operating expenses increased by approximately $5 million year-over-year to $34.8 million, driven by project development costs that are expected to be recouped later.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter earnings call for LanzaTech Global, Inc., several key metrics and guidance updates were discussed. The company reported a third quarter revenue of $9.9 million, which was approximately $7 million below their target, largely due to an anticipated LanzaJet sublicense event not materializing and lower-than-expected CarbonSmart revenue despite it more than doubling quarter-over-quarter to $2.2 million. The company is evolving its business model to accelerate revenues and profitability by developing their own projects and partnering with capital investors like Brookfield Asset Management, which committed $500 million. LanzaTech received the first $5 million in fees from Project Drake, a 30 million gallon per year EU-based ethanol-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project, and announced a new ethanol offtake agreement with ArcelorMittal with potential revenue of $6 million annually in the short term and $10-20 million per year over five years. Despite headwinds, the company is optimistic about achieving greater economics and expects these initiatives to bolster their financial performance in the fourth quarter and beyond.

LanzaTech Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary
LanzaTech Global faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent unprofitability. The net profit margin is deeply negative, and high leverage poses financial risks despite some improvements in cost management.
Income Statement
40
Negative
LanzaTech Global shows declining revenue with a negative revenue growth rate of -20.82% in the latest year. Gross profit margin has improved to 47.63%, indicating better cost management, but the company remains deeply unprofitable with a net profit margin of -277.70% and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The debt-to-equity ratio of 2.29 reveals substantial leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative due to continuous losses, yet the equity ratio remains positive at 7.70%, indicating some level of equity stability despite financial difficulties.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Operating cash flow remains negative, and free cash flow has declined by 11.29%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is slightly improved but still negative, showing the company struggles to convert profit into cash flow.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
49.59M62.63M37.34M25.46M18.35M
Gross Profit
23.62M12.20M9.06M10.23M6.76M
EBIT
-108.93M-106.38M-75.60M-51.02M-39.70M
EBITDA
-108.93M-98.19M-70.94M-44.82M-36.55M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-137.73M-134.10M-76.36M-46.69M-37.71M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
55.87M120.74M6.67K128.32M60.49M
Total Assets
174.68M241.62M152.49M193.01M118.98M
Total Debt
81.89M19.94M7.41M5.33M10.59M
Net Debt
38.39M-55.64M7.41M-122.98M-49.91M
Total Liabilities
161.24M127.15M9.71M67.30M35.79M
Stockholders Equity
13.45M114.47M142.78M125.71M83.19M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-94.37M-105.85M-11.08M-48.34M-46.38M
Operating Cash Flow
-89.06M-97.30M-345.73K-42.59M-39.27M
Investing Cash Flow
28.35M-57.91M9.00K-5.75M-6.59M
Financing Cash Flow
30.21M148.19M50.55M116.02M44.73M

LanzaTech Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.27
Price Trends
50DMA
0.24
Positive
100DMA
0.43
Negative
200DMA
0.97
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.01
Negative
RSI
53.64
Neutral
STOCH
33.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LNZA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.26, above the 50-day MA of 0.24, and below the 200-day MA of 0.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LNZA.

LanzaTech Global Risk Analysis

LanzaTech Global disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LanzaTech Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

LanzaTech Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
$4.44B12.085.34%5.82%4.17%-11.81%
AWAWX
60
Neutral
$9.46M11.852.21%<0.01%
48
Neutral
$62.35M-290.05%-22.77%-35.96%
46
Neutral
$186.29M-41.10%-28.62%-543.45%
44
Neutral
$44.47M-44.84%-0.91%-305.99%
36
Underperform
$7.13M-167.48%-100.00%24.94%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LNZA
LanzaTech Global
0.29
-1.42
-83.04%
AWX
Avalon Holdings
2.44
0.36
17.31%
PESI
Perma-Fix
9.99
0.97
10.75%
QRHC
Quest Resource
2.18
-6.52
-74.94%
AQMS
Aqua Metals
0.63
-6.37
-91.00%

LanzaTech Global Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
LanzaTech Global Announces Workforce Reduction Strategy
Negative
Jun 16, 2025

On June 10, 2025, LanzaTech Global, Inc. announced a workforce reduction at its Skokie, Illinois location as part of its strategic shift towards greater cost efficiency. This move is aimed at supporting the company’s transition to a commercially focused enterprise, with the changes expected to take effect around August 10, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (LNZA) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LanzaTech Global stock, see the LNZA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
LanzaTech Global Amends Loan Agreements, Appoints New CAO
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

On June 2, 2025, LanzaTech Global, Inc. fulfilled its obligations under a Series A Convertible Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement by obtaining consent from BGTF LT Aggregator LP to amend existing loan and framework agreements. These amendments extend loan maturity dates and adjust interest rates, impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder agreements. Additionally, the company appointed Michael Heraty as Chief Accounting Officer, following Sushmita Koyanagi’s promotion to Chief Financial Officer, marking a significant leadership change. Heraty brings extensive experience in finance and audit, having previously worked at Intelsat, Gogo, Whirlpool, and Verizon Communications.

The most recent analyst rating on (LNZA) stock is a Buy with a $0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LanzaTech Global stock, see the LNZA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
LanzaTech Global Amends Preferred Stock Agreement
Neutral
Jun 3, 2025

On May 7, 2025, LanzaTech Global, Inc. and LanzaTech Global SPV, LLC entered into a Series A Convertible Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement, issuing 20 million shares of preferred stock for $40 million. On June 2, 2025, they amended this agreement to extend deadlines for issuing warrants and obtaining stockholder approvals, among other changes. These amendments aim to facilitate future financing and ensure compliance with necessary conditions, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (LNZA) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LanzaTech Global stock, see the LNZA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
LanzaTech Global Announces Key Leadership Changes
Positive
May 29, 2025

On May 29, 2025, LanzaTech Global announced executive leadership changes to streamline operations and reduce costs, including the appointment of Sushmita Koyanagi as Chief Financial Officer and Amanda Fuisz as interim General Counsel. These changes, along with the retirement of long-serving board member Gary Rieschel, are expected to result in annual cost reductions of approximately $1 million, enhancing the company’s ability to focus on its core gas fermentation technology and sustainable aviation fuel production.

The most recent analyst rating on (LNZA) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LanzaTech Global stock, see the LNZA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
LanzaTech Global Secures $40M in Preferred Stock Agreement
Neutral
May 9, 2025

On May 7, 2025, LanzaTech Global, Inc. entered into a Series A Convertible Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement with LanzaTech Global SPV, LLC, issuing 20 million shares of preferred stock for $40 million. This agreement includes the issuance of warrants and a subsequent financing plan, contingent on stockholder approvals. The company is also implementing strategic measures, including workforce reductions in Skokie, Illinois, to support its transition to a commercially focused enterprise.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
LanzaTech Global Expands Board Amid Strategic Delays
Neutral
Mar 26, 2025

On March 20, 2025, LanzaTech Global expanded its Board of Directors by appointing Jill Frizzley as a Class III director, who will serve on the Strategic Committee. This appointment is part of LanzaTech’s broader strategic measures, which have impacted its management resources, leading to a delay in filing its 2024 Annual Report and postponing its earnings disclosures and conference call. The company anticipates filing within the extension period and is focused on deploying its technology globally while improving its cost structure.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.