Okta (OKTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.87B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 63.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: 12.12%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,914
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.90
• Shares Outstanding: 169,200,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,157,653
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,543,503
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 40.33
• 1Y Price Target: $99.65
• Price Target Upside: 27.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 31
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.18B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $85.00 ▲(8.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability turnaround, strong margins, and solid cash generation) and a generally positive earnings-call setup centered on disciplined profitability. These positives are tempered by very weak valuation on the provided P/E metric and a soft technical backdrop (below key moving averages), plus uncertainty flagged in the most recent annual growth data.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Operating and free cash flow expanded sharply from 2023–2025 with FCF tracking net income near 1x, demonstrating high cash conversion and earnings quality. This durable cash generation provides flexibility to invest in product development, repay liabilities, and fund buybacks while supporting multi-year execution.

High gross margins and profitability turnaround

Sustained gross margins (~70–77%) and a multi-year shift from losses to positive net income (2025–2026) reflect strong unit economics and improving cost discipline. These fundamentals enable operating leverage as revenue scales, supporting sustainable profitability and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.

Product and channel momentum (new products, ACV gains)

New-product bookings (~30% of Q4) with average contract uplifts ~40%, record TCV and ACV >$3B, and heavy channel participation (18/20 top deals, AWS Marketplace growth) point to scalable go-to-market, strong cross-sell, and partner-driven distribution that can sustainably expand enterprise footprint.

Negative Factors

Revenue-growth durability concerns

An 'extremely negative/inconsistent' 2026 revenue growth datapoint clouds the multi-year growth narrative. Durable margin and cash improvements rely on steady ARR expansion; persistent top-line volatility could undermine operating leverage, slow reinvestment payoffs, and increase execution risk over several quarters.

Flat net-dollar retention / upsell pressure

Flat net-dollar retention limits organic ARR growth because existing customers aren't being monetized more over time. Sustained flat NRR increases reliance on new business and product launches for growth, making long-term margin expansion and predictable cash conversion harder to maintain.

AI-agent monetization early-stage and standards risk

Agentic offerings are promising but still a small part of revenue, with immature pricing and a fragmented standards landscape. This creates multi-year execution and monetization risk: meaningful agent-driven revenue may take longer to scale and could be constrained by competition and slow industry standardization.

Okta Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Okta, Inc. provides identity solutions for enterprises, small and medium-sized businesses, universities, non-profits, and government agencies in the United States and internationally. The company offers Okta Identity Cloud, a platform that offers a suite of products and services, such as Universal Directory, a cloud-based system of record to store and secure user, application, and device profiles for an organization; Single Sign-On that enables users to access applications in the cloud or on-premise from various devices; Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication provides a layer of security for cloud, mobile, Web applications, and data; Lifecycle Management that enables IT organizations or developers to manage a user's identity throughout its lifecycle; API Access Management that enables organizations to secure APIs; Access Gateway that enables organizations to extend the Okta Identity Cloud from the cloud to their existing on-premise applications; and Advanced Server Access to secure cloud infrastructure. It also provides Auth0 products, including Universal Login that allows customers to provide login experience across different applications and devices; Attack Protection, a suite of security capabilities that protect from malicious traffics; Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication that minimizes friction to end users; Passwordless authentication enables users to login without a password and supports in various login methods; Machine to Machine provides standards-based authentication and authorization; private Cloud that allows customers to run a dedicated cloud instance of Auth0; and Organizations that enables customers to independent configurations, login experiences, and security options. It offers customer support, training, and professional services. It sells its products directly to customers through sales force and channel partners. The company was formerly known as Saasure, Inc. Okta, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Okta primarily generates revenue through a subscription-based model, charging customers for access to its identity management platform. The company's key revenue streams include fees for its various services, such as Single Sign-On and Multi-Factor Authentication, which are typically billed annually or monthly based on the number of users or applications integrated. Additionally, Okta has established strategic partnerships with other technology providers, which can enhance its offerings and drive customer acquisition. The company's success is also bolstered by the increasing demand for security solutions in response to the growing concerns over data breaches and cyber threats.

Okta Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a meaningful turnaround: consistently high gross margins (~70–77%), improving profitability (net margin turning positive in 2025 and strengthening in 2026 annual), de-risking leverage, and strong operating/free cash flow with good cash conversion. Offsetting this, the latest 2026 (annual) revenue and free-cash-flow growth figures are described as extremely negative/inconsistent versus prior trends, which adds uncertainty around near-term trajectory.

Income Statement

Okta has demonstrated a multi-year profitability turnaround: net margin improved from deeply negative in 2022–2024 to slightly positive in 2025 and stronger in 2026 (annual). Gross margin remains consistently high (~70–77%), supporting strong underlying unit economics. The main watch-out is growth durability—after solid revenue growth through 2025, the latest 2026 (annual) revenue growth figure is extremely negative and inconsistent with the prior trend, which raises data quality and/or volatility concerns; margins also still look modest at the operating level relative to the gross margin.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks solid and has de-risked over time: leverage has come down meaningfully, with debt-to-equity improving from very high levels in 2021 to low levels by 2025–2026 (annual). Equity is sizable relative to assets, and return on equity has moved from negative in earlier years to positive in 2025–2026 (annual), albeit still modest. Key weakness is that profitability is recent and not yet at a level that would clearly signal sustained high returns on the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow expanded sharply from 2023 to 2025, and free cash flow closely tracks net income (near 1x in 2024–2026 annual), indicating good earnings quality and strong cash conversion. The primary concern is the latest 2026 (annual) cash flow growth showing an extreme decline, which conflicts with the prior improving trajectory and suggests potential volatility or data inconsistency in that period.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.92B	2.61B	2.26B	1.86B	1.30B
Gross Profit	2.26B	1.99B	1.68B	1.31B	904.00M
EBITDA	249.00M	139.00M	-245.00M	-676.00M	-651.00M
Net Income	235.00M	28.00M	-355.00M	-815.00M	-848.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.71B	9.44B	8.99B	9.31B	9.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.55B	2.52B	2.20B	2.58B	2.50B
Total Debt	422.00M	952.00M	1.30B	2.37B	2.03B
Total Liabilities	2.71B	3.03B	3.10B	3.84B	3.28B
Stockholders Equity	7.00B	6.41B	5.89B	5.47B	5.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	905.00M	730.00M	488.00M	63.00M	87.00M
Operating Cash Flow	914.00M	750.00M	512.00M	86.00M	104.00M
Investing Cash Flow	271.00M	-314.00M	441.00M	-130.00M	-367.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-750.00M	-359.00M	-883.00M	48.00M	89.00M

Okta Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 78.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OKTA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 78.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.42, below the 50-day MA of 83.78, and below the 200-day MA of 89.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OKTA.

Okta Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FTNT	72 Outperform	$61.70B	31.84	123.64%	―	14.78%	22.52%
CRWD	69 Neutral	$110.53B	-686.05	-4.68%	―	22.05%	-341.24%
ZS	66 Neutral	$25.08B	-232.70	-3.48%	―	23.24%	-8.83%
OKTA	64 Neutral	$13.87B	63.23	3.45%	―	12.12%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NET	57 Neutral	$79.36B	-671.68	-7.48%	―	28.06%	-7.44%
SAIL	41 Neutral	$7.00B	-84.00	-8.01%	―	23.38%	-30.16%

Okta Corporate Events

Okta Posts Strong Fiscal 2026 Results With Higher Profitability

On March 4, 2026, Okta reported fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results showing moderate top-line growth and stronger profitability, with Q4 revenue up 11% year-over-year to $761 million and full-year revenue up 12% to $2.919 billion. The company turned a GAAP operating loss into a $149 million operating profit for the year, expanded non-GAAP operating margins to 26%, and generated $884 million in operating cash flow, underscoring improved efficiency even as Q4 cash flow margins eased versus a year earlier.

Remaining performance obligations rose 15% to $4.827 billion, signaling healthy demand, while management highlighted accelerating adoption of new products and growing interest in securing AI agents as key drivers. Okta also reiterated that it uses its investor relations and blog websites as primary channels for material disclosures, reinforcing its engagement with investors and its positioning as a critical security partner in the evolving AI-driven software landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (OKTA) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Okta stock, see the OKTA Stock Forecast page.

Okta Authorizes $1 Billion Share Repurchase Program

On January 5, 2026, Okta announced that its board of directors had approved a share repurchase program authorizing the company to buy back up to $1 billion of its Class A common stock, effective immediately. The move, which can be executed via open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, or other methods without a fixed expiration date, is framed as a signal of management’s confidence in Okta’s business fundamentals, long-term growth prospects, and perception that its shares are undervalued, while highlighting the company’s strong balance sheet and free cash flow generation that supports returning capital to shareholders alongside continued investment in growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (OKTA) stock is a Buy with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Okta stock, see the OKTA Stock Forecast page.

Okta strengthens board with new independent technology directors

On December 18–19, 2025, Okta expanded its board of directors from 10 to 11 members and appointed technology veterans Rob Bernshteyn and Paul Sagan as independent directors, assigning Bernshteyn to the Audit and Cybersecurity Risk Committees and Sagan to the Compensation and Nominating Committees, with both receiving standard non-employee director compensation and indemnification. The move, coupled with the December 15, 2025 resignation of director Mary Agnes (Maggie) Wilderotter for unforeseen personal reasons not tied to disagreements with the company, underscores Okta’s effort to deepen board expertise in SaaS, cybersecurity and AI as identity becomes more central to securing emerging AI-driven technologies and to reinforcing its strategic positioning as a neutral identity partner for enterprises.

The most recent analyst rating on (OKTA) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Okta stock, see the OKTA Stock Forecast page.