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ODP (ODP)
NASDAQ:ODP
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ODP (ODP) AI Stock Analysis

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ODP

ODP

(NASDAQ:ODP)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(7.22% Upside)
ODP's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its challenging financial performance, with declining revenues and profitability pressures. Despite strong technical indicators suggesting bullish momentum, the high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield raise valuation concerns. The earnings call provided some positive insights into strategic execution and cash flow improvements, but these were overshadowed by revenue declines and retail segment challenges.

ODP (ODP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ODP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionODP Corporation (ODP) is a leading provider of business services and products, primarily operating in the office supplies sector. The company delivers a wide array of solutions including office supplies, furniture, technology products, and business services to various customer segments, including small and medium-sized enterprises, government entities, and large corporations. ODP operates through multiple channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and business-to-business sales, positioning itself as a comprehensive resource for workplace needs.
How the Company Makes MoneyODP generates revenue through several key streams. Its primary source of income comes from the sale of office supplies and related products through its retail and online stores. The company also earns revenue from its business services, which include managed print services, contract sales, and customized solutions for businesses. Additionally, ODP has formed strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers to enhance its product offerings and improve supply chain efficiency. The company's focus on e-commerce and digital solutions has also contributed significantly to its revenue growth, as more customers shift towards online purchasing.

ODP Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Operating Income by Segment
Chart Insights
Data provided by:Main Street Data

ODP Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong strategic execution and cash flow improvements, particularly in new market segments like hospitality, alongside challenges such as overall revenue decline and retail segment struggles. The company's positive trends in B2B and liquidity improvements were overshadowed by declines in traditional revenue streams.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Performance and Strategic Execution
The company reported an improvement in year-over-year trends in its B2B and consumer segments, with stronger revenue trends and significantly higher adjusted free cash flow, surpassing average external expectations.
Strong Cash Flow and Liquidity Position
ODP generated $47 million in EBITDA and $13 million in free cash flow for the second quarter, with cash conversion remaining strong. The company also paid down approximately $35 million in debt, further strengthening its balance sheet.
Progress in Hospitality Market
ODP entered the $16 billion hospitality segment, making significant progress with strategic partnerships, onboarding about 1,000 new hotel properties, and seeing robust month-over-month growth.
Veyer's Revenue Growth
Veyer, the supply chain segment, achieved 90% year-over-year revenue growth from third-party customers, with a 32% increase in EBITDA from third-party customers.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Total revenue for the quarter was $1.6 billion, an 8% decrease compared to the second quarter of last year, primarily driven by 60 fewer stores in operation, reduced consumer traffic, and lower enterprise sales.
Retail Segment Challenges
Office Depot reported a 10% decrease in sales compared to the prior year, impacted by store closures and lower traffic, although the decline was mitigated by higher average order volumes.
Operating Income Decline
Adjusted operating income for the second quarter was $25 million compared to $33 million in last year's second quarter, with adjusted EBITDA at $47 million compared to $57 million in the prior year.
Company Guidance
During the ODP Corporation's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics were highlighted to demonstrate the company's progress and financial health. The firm reported $1.6 billion in total revenue, marking an 8% year-over-year decrease, largely due to fewer retail locations and reduced consumer traffic. Despite this, the company achieved $47 million in adjusted EBITDA and $13 million in free cash flow, exceeding expectations and indicating strong cash generation. The B2B distribution segment showed improvement with revenue trends improving by approximately 200 basis points both sequentially and year-over-year. The company's expansion into the hospitality sector is gaining traction, contributing to a low double-digit percentage increase in sales among hospitality customers. Additionally, Veyer, their supply chain business, reported a 90% increase in year-over-year third-party customer revenue. The firm expects adjusted free cash flow to exceed $150 million for the full year, reflecting a robust cash management strategy.

ODP Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ODP faces a challenging financial landscape with revenue declines and profitability pressures. While cash flow management shows resilience with improved free cash flow, the high leverage and negative net income in TTM are concerning. The company needs to focus on boosting revenue and controlling costs to enhance financial health and shareholder value.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
ODP has experienced fluctuating financial performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a Gross Profit Margin of 20.48% and a negative Net Profit Margin of -0.69%, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue has been on a declining trend, with a noticeable drop from $9.71 billion in 2020 to $6.82 billion in TTM. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a positive EBITDA Margin of 2.77% in TTM, although it has reduced from previous years.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 1.27 in TTM, indicating a high leverage compared to equity. The Equity Ratio stands at 22.61%, showing a relatively low equity base compared to total assets. The Return on Equity (ROE) is negative in TTM due to net losses, which raises concerns about shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
ODP's cash flow analysis reveals some strengths and weaknesses. The Free Cash Flow has grown to $65 million in TTM, up from $32 million in 2024, highlighting improved cash generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is positive, suggesting strong cash conversion despite net losses. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is less favorable due to negative earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.69B6.99B7.82B8.48B8.46B8.87B
Gross Profit1.36B1.45B1.76B1.84B1.86B1.95B
EBITDA204.00M266.00M448.00M439.00M405.00M161.00M
Net Income26.00M-3.00M139.00M166.00M-208.00M-319.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.40B3.53B3.89B4.15B4.87B5.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments177.00M166.00M392.00M403.00M514.00M729.00M
Total Debt938.00M1.32B963.00M881.00M1.00B1.37B
Total Liabilities2.60B2.72B2.79B2.86B3.43B3.68B
Stockholders Equity796.00M807.00M1.10B1.29B1.44B1.88B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow95.00M32.00M226.00M138.00M273.00M417.00M
Operating Cash Flow176.00M130.00M331.00M237.00M346.00M485.00M
Investing Cash Flow-92.00M-126.00M-2.00M-10.00M-79.00M736.00M
Financing Cash Flow-96.00M-225.00M-340.00M-355.00M-459.00M-1.19B

ODP Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price27.98
Price Trends
50DMA
20.67
Positive
100DMA
19.11
Positive
200DMA
18.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.95
Negative
RSI
74.32
Negative
STOCH
99.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.77, above the 50-day MA of 20.67, and above the 200-day MA of 18.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.32 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ODP.

ODP Risk Analysis

ODP disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ODP reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ODP Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$16.00B20.9928.65%4.98%-2.21%-37.30%
69
Neutral
$16.45B111.9138.76%9.04%-56.79%
64
Neutral
$841.75M23.215.92%-9.64%
50
Neutral
$333.73M-0.171.38%63.65%
47
Neutral
$113.42M-0.03121.85%-7.15%-1299.84%
46
Neutral
$539.62M-2.31-159.03%-26.63%45.71%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ODP
ODP
27.98
-1.77
-5.95%
BBY
Best Buy Co
76.15
-22.12
-22.51%
QVCGA
QVC Group
13.77
-16.73
-54.85%
BBBY
Bed Bath & Beyond
9.40
-0.68
-6.75%
BNED
Barnes & Noble Education
9.80
0.54
5.83%
CHWY
Chewy
39.66
10.37
35.40%

ODP Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
ODP Appoints Co-Chief Financial Officers for Strategic Growth
Positive
Dec 12, 2024

The ODP Corporation has announced the appointment of Max Hood and Adam Haggard as Co-Chief Financial Officers. Max Hood will continue his role as the principal accounting officer, while Adam Haggard brings over 20 years of experience within the company to his new position. Both executives have entered into Letter Agreements outlining their compensation, including a base salary of $400,000, bonus eligibility, and participation in the company’s Long-Term Incentive Plan. These appointments may strengthen ODP’s financial strategy and operations, providing stability in leadership and potentially enhancing the company’s market position.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 23, 2025