NEXTracker, Inc. Class A (NXT) AI Stock Analysis

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NEXTracker, Inc. Class A

(NASDAQ:NXT)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:―

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A scores a solid 76, reflecting its strong financial performance, robust earnings call results, and reasonable valuation. The company shows impressive revenue growth and profitability, supported by strategic investments and a record backlog, which provide confidence in future growth. However, potential risks include international pricing pressures and the lack of a dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest a neutral market position, which aligns with the overall positive outlook tempered by specific challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Strong financial results with record revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow exceeded expectations, highlighting company performance.

Market Position

Demand remains steady across U.S. and international markets, where NXT holds the top share.

Strategic Positioning

NXT is viewed as a best-in-class execution story and well insulated versus peers due to its 100% U.S.-based tracker manufacturing and differentiated contract structure.

Negative Factors

Legislative Risks

Legislative challenges related to utility solar in the U.S. could pose risks in future periods.

Market Demand

Slowing end markets are expected as a downside risk, leading to trimmed estimates.

Profitability Concerns

Growth in lower-margin international regions could pressure overall profitability despite volume gains.

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A (NXT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$8.62B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.77M

Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0

Beta (1Y)1.46

Revenue Growth21.46%

EPS Growth123.22%

CountryUS

Employees1,300

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength84

IndustrySolar

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.29

Shares Outstanding146,263,960

10 Day Avg. Volume1,631,576

30 Day Avg. Volume2,769,645

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.52

Price to Book (P/B)4.99

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio12.95

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.23

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.49

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$63.94

Price Target Upside8.52% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNextracker Inc., an energy solutions company, provides solar tracker solutions for PV projects. The company offers solar trackers, such as Bifacial PV modules for large-scale solar; NX Horizon for solar power plants; NX Gemini two-in-portrait solar tracker that optimizes lifetime value and performance of power plants for project developers and asset owners; and NX Horizon XTR, an all-terrain solar tracker. It also provides TrueCapture, an intelligent and self-adjusting tracker control system for PV power plants; and NX Navigator, an operational control and risk mitigation software. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Fremont, California. Nextracker Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Flex Ltd.

How the Company Makes MoneyNEXTracker, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its solar tracking systems and related services. The company designs and manufactures solar trackers that allow solar panels to follow the sun's trajectory, maximizing energy capture and efficiency. Revenue streams include direct sales of these tracking systems to solar power developers and operators, as well as installation and maintenance services. NEXTracker may also engage in strategic partnerships with solar energy companies and EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) contractors, contributing to its earnings through collaborative projects and long-term service agreements. Additionally, the company might benefit from government incentives and policies that promote renewable energy adoption, indirectly supporting its financial performance.

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: 7.05%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Nextracker delivered strong financial performance with record revenue and market leadership, supported by innovation and strategic acquisitions. However, potential policy challenges and international margin pressures pose future risks.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Revenue and Market Performance

Nextracker achieved $3 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2025, surpassing the forecast of $2.8 to $2.9 billion. The company also set a record with $924 million in Q4 revenue, up 26% year-over-year.

Strong Market Leadership and Backlog Growth

Nextracker increased its global market share, with a backlog growing from $2.1 billion at IPO to over $4.5 billion. The company maintained its leadership position in the U.S., Europe, Latin America, and Australia.

Innovation and Product Expansion

Nextracker reached 1,220 patents and expanded its product line with new offerings like the Hail Pro series trackers and the acquisition of Bentek Corporation to provide integrated eBOS solutions.

Financial Strength and Cash Flow

The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $776 million for the year, up 49% from fiscal 2024, and ended the year with $766 million in cash and no debt.

Negative Updates

Potential Policy and Tariff Challenges

Uncertainties related to the U.S. House tax bill could impact future operations, including the timing of tax credits and foreign component restrictions, which could affect long-term project pipelines.

International Margin Pressure

Despite growth, international margins remain lower compared to the U.S., affecting overall profitability, although the company managed to maintain healthy margins.

Company Guidance

During Nextracker's Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported achieving $3 billion in revenue for the year, surpassing their forecasted range of $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion. The adjusted EBITDA also exceeded expectations, reaching $775 million against a forecast of $600 million to $650 million. The backlog grew significantly from $2.1 billion at the time of their IPO in 2023 to over $4.5 billion. The company maintained a strong market presence, leading in global and U.S. market share for nine consecutive years, and increased their market share in regions like Europe, Latin America, and Australia in 2024. Nextracker is positioning itself for further growth with an anticipated revenue range of $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion in 2026, alongside an adjusted EBITDA forecast of $700 million to $775 million. They are also expanding their product offerings beyond solar trackers, having acquired Bentek Corporation to integrate electrical balance of system (eBOS) components, thereby enhancing their solar power technology platform. With a reported adjusted free cash flow of $622 million for the year and no debt, Nextracker plans to continue investing in strategic growth initiatives while maintaining structural gross margins in the low-30s.

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and high profitability. The income statement shows robust growth with a revenue increase to $2.77 billion and a solid net profit margin of 20.1%. The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with minimal leverage, though the equity ratio suggests room for asset management improvement. Cash flow performance is robust, indicating strong cash generation capabilities and efficient capital expenditure.

Income Statement

Very Positive

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A has shown impressive revenue growth, with a TTM revenue of $2.77 billion, up from $2.5 billion in the previous year, indicating a strong growth trajectory. The gross profit margin stands at 37.7%, and the net profit margin is at a solid 20.1%, reflecting efficient cost management and profitability. The EBIT margin of 25.8% and EBITDA margin of 26.9% further highlight operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability within the renewable energy sector.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity of $1.41 billion and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.005, indicating minimal leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is substantial at 39.7%, reflecting effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio is moderate at 47.1%, suggesting balanced funding between equity and liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet is strong with low leverage and high equity returns, though the equity ratio indicates room for improvement in asset management.

Cash Flow

Positive

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A has demonstrated robust cash flow performance with a TTM operating cash flow of $526 million and free cash flow of $500 million, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.94, suggesting effective conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable at 0.90. The free cash flow growth rate is impressive, highlighting efficient capital expenditure and cash management strategies. The cash flow statement reflects strong liquidity and cash generation capabilities.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.96B	2.50B	1.90B	1.46B	1.20B
	Gross Profit
1.01B	813.05M	286.97M	147.03M	231.98M
	EBIT
639.11M	587.12M	168.49M	65.91M	158.53M
	EBITDA
639.11M	626.18M	174.55M	76.31M	175.34M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
509.17M	306.24M	1.14M	50.91M	124.35M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
766.10M	474.05M	159.31M	38.37M	217.99M
	Total Assets
3.19B	2.52B	1.42B	1.02B	880.97M
	Total Debt
0.00	143.97M	147.15M	4.50M	4.50M
	Net Debt
-766.10M	-330.09M	17.14M	-24.57M	-186.09M
	Total Liabilities
1.56B	1.53B	934.82M	1.02B	424.92M
	Stockholders Equity
1.63B	961.01M	-3.08B	-3.04M	456.05M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
621.87M	422.31M	104.49M	-153.03M	91.31M
	Operating Cash Flow
655.79M	428.97M	107.67M	-147.11M	94.27M
	Investing Cash Flow
-186.10M	-6.66M	-3.16M	-5.75M	-2.96M
	Financing Cash Flow
-177.65M	-78.27M	-3.57M	-8.66M	96.33M

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price58.92

Price Trends

50DMA

47.53

Positive

100DMA

46.29

Positive

200DMA

41.80

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

2.96

Positive

RSI

66.33

Neutral

STOCH

81.57

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.87, above the 50-day MA of 47.53, and above the 200-day MA of 41.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NXT.

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NEXTracker, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NXT	76 Outperform	$8.62B	17.01	39.33%	―	21.46%	123.22%
SHLS	69 Neutral	$862.62M	45.66	3.43%	―	-18.10%	-36.91%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$11.80B	10.31	-7.45%	2.91%	7.43%	-7.78%
ENPH	61 Neutral	$5.40B	38.31	17.13%	―	-22.15%	-45.22%
ARRY	58 Neutral	$1.14B	―	-49.11%	―	-21.31%	-593.57%
SEDG	51 Neutral	$1.07B	―	-121.50%	―	-57.89%	-559.87%
CSIQ	50 Neutral	$752.77M	20.05	-0.39%	―	-19.06%	-104.91%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NXT

NEXTracker, Inc. Class A

59.02

0.96

1.65%

CSIQ

Canadian Solar

11.03

-6.59

-37.40%

ENPH

Enphase Energy

43.26

-87.41

-66.89%

SEDG

SolarEdge Technologies

18.72

-28.17

-60.08%

ARRY

Array Technologies

7.49

-6.50

-46.46%

SHLS

Shoals Technologies Group

5.10

-1.71

-25.11%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.