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Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ)
NASDAQ:CSIQ

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) AI Stock Analysis

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CSIQ

Canadian Solar

(NASDAQ:CSIQ)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▼(-3.40% Downside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (sharp revenue decline, high leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow). Technicals also remain bearish with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call showed strength in energy storage and solid revenue execution, but cash burn, rising debt, and litigation risk keep the overall profile cautious.
Positive Factors
Energy storage scale
Record 2.7 GWh quarterly shipments indicate the company is scaling a higher‑margin, fast‑growing business line. Energy storage diversification reduces reliance on commoditized modules, supports stronger blended gross margins and backlog growth, and aligns with structural electrification trends.
High‑margin project sales
Monetizing projects at ~46% gross margin shows the developer/owner segment can generate superior, project‑level economics. This diversifies revenue toward asset sales and PPAs, improves earnings quality over time, and provides a pathway to recurring cash flows separate from module commodity cycles.
U.S. manufacturing expansion
Progress on Indiana cell and Kentucky battery plants represents a strategic reshoring that strengthens North American supply chain access. Local manufacturing reduces tariff/ADCVD exposure, improves eligibility for incentives, and supports long‑term market share in the U.S. utility and storage markets.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue trend
A 34% TTM revenue decline is a durable red flag: it compresses operating leverage, limits reinvestment capacity, and suggests structural pricing pressure or lost demand. Sustained top‑line erosion makes margin recovery and funding of strategic initiatives more difficult over the medium term.
High leverage and rising debt
Elevated leverage (D/E ~2.6) and rising total debt constrain financial flexibility, raise interest burden, and increase refinancing risk. With cyclical end markets and capex needs for manufacturing, high leverage limits ability to absorb shocks and makes growth funding more costly or dilutive.
Negative operating and free cash flow
Large operating cash outflows undermine self‑funding of capex and project buildouts, forcing reliance on external financing. Persistent negative OCF and falling free cash flow increase refinancing and liquidity risk, and may constrain the company's ability to scale manufacturing without further debt or equity.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Canadian Solar Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCanadian Solar Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells solar ingots, wafers, cells, modules, and other solar power and battery storage products in Asia, the Americas, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Canadian Solar Inc. (CSI) Solar and Global Energy. The CSI Solar segment offers standard solar modules and battery storage solutions, as well as solar system kits that are a ready-to-install packages comprising inverters, racking systems, and other accessories; and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services. The Global Energy segment engages in the development, construction, maintenance, and sale of solar and battery storage projects; operation of solar power plants; and sale of electricity. This segment also provides operation and maintenance (O&M) services, including monitoring, inspections, repair, and replacement of plant equipment; and site management and administrative support services for solar projects, as well as asset management services. As of January 31, 2021, this segment had a fleet of solar power plants in operation with an aggregate capacity of approximately 445 MWp. The company serves distributors, system integrators, project developers, and installers/EPC companies. It sells its products primarily under its Canadian Solar brand name; and on an OEM basis. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Guelph, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanadian Solar generates revenue primarily through the sale of solar modules, which are the core components of solar energy systems. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes several key streams: revenue from the manufacturing and sale of solar PV modules, revenue from the development and sale of solar power projects, and revenue from energy storage solutions. Additionally, Canadian Solar engages in long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and leases for its solar projects, allowing for predictable cash flow. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with various stakeholders, including utility companies and governments, which can provide incentives and subsidies that enhance profitability. Furthermore, the global push for renewable energy and favorable regulatory environments in several countries contribute positively to Canadian Solar's earnings.

Canadian Solar Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Gross Profit by Segment
Reveals the profitability of each business segment, indicating where the company is most efficient and where there may be cost management challenges.
Chart InsightsCanadian Solar's CSI Solar segment shows a significant rebound in gross profit in Q2 2025, reaching a new high, which aligns with strong module shipments near the high end of guidance. However, Recurrent Energy's performance remains volatile, reflecting challenges from project sale delays and tariff impacts on storage shipments. Despite exceeding gross margin expectations, profitability is under pressure from nonrecurring expenses and rising supply chain costs. The company's focus on North American markets and sustainability initiatives provides a positive outlook, but operational challenges could affect future profitability.
Data provided by:The Fly

Canadian Solar Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong growth in energy storage, high-margin project sales, and strategic progress in US manufacturing. However, challenges such as decreased solar segment margins, net losses due to shareholder impacts, ongoing ADCVD litigation, and increased debt highlight areas of concern.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Energy Storage Shipments
Achieved a record quarterly shipment of 2.7 gigawatt hours in energy storage, indicating strong growth in this segment.
Strong Revenue Performance
Total revenue reached $1.5 billion, landing at the high end of expectations.
Gross Margin Exceeded Expectations
Gross margin was 17.2%, exceeding guidance, primarily due to strong contributions from energy storage shipments.
Significant Progress in US Manufacturing
Phase one of the solar cell factory in Indiana and lithium battery factory in Kentucky are on track to start production by 2026 year-end, strengthening US supply chain.
Growth in Residential Energy Storage
Strong growth in Japan, Italy, and the US; expanding into Germany and Australia, on track to become profitable in 2025.
High-Margin Project Sales
Monetized over 500 megawatts of projects with a gross margin of 46.1%, driven by profitable project sales.
Negative Updates
Decreased Gross Margin in Solar Segment
Gross margin decreased by 730 basis points to 15% in the solar segment due to incremental upstream price increases and underutilization.
Net Loss Due to Preferred Shareholder Impact
Reported a net income attributable to shareholders of $9 million, or a net loss of $0.07 per diluted share due to the impact of paid-in-kind of preferred shareholder.
Challenges with ADCVD Process
Ongoing litigation with potential significant financial liabilities, though no reserve has been booked.
Reduced Cash Flow and Increased Debt
Net cash used in operating activities was $1.112 billion, with total debt increasing incrementally to $6.4 billion.
Company Guidance
During Canadian Solar's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported notable financial and operational metrics. Solar module shipments reached 5.01 gigawatts, aligning with guidance, while energy storage shipments hit a record 2.7 gigawatt hours. Total revenue was $1.5 billion, at the high end of expectations, with a gross margin of 17.2% driven by strong energy storage contributions. The company achieved a net income of $9 million, despite a net loss of $0.07 per diluted share due to preferred shareholder impacts. Looking ahead, Canadian Solar expects fourth-quarter revenue between $1.3 and $1.5 billion, with a gross margin of 14 to 16%. For 2026, projected module shipments range from 25 to 30 gigawatts, including one gigawatt for internal projects, and energy storage shipments are expected to be between 14 and 17 gigawatt hours. The company also emphasized its strategic focus on US manufacturing investments and compliance with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to support long-term growth and market positioning.

Canadian Solar Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Weak fundamentals overall: revenue is down materially (TTM -34.2%), profitability is thin (net margin 0.27%) with negative EBIT margin, leverage is high (debt-to-equity 2.58), and operating/free cash flow are negative—raising financial risk despite a still-positive gross margin profile.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Canadian Solar's income statement reveals a challenging period with declining revenue and profitability. The TTM data shows a significant revenue decrease of 34.2%, and the net profit margin is a low 0.27%. The gross profit margin is 18.97%, indicating some efficiency in cost management. However, the negative EBIT margin suggests operational challenges. The company needs to address its declining revenue and improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.58, which poses a financial risk. The return on equity is low at 0.57%, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 18.92%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing. The company should focus on reducing debt levels to improve financial stability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows negative operating and free cash flows, with a significant free cash flow decline of 15.19% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 14.24, suggesting reliance on non-operational sources for cash. Improving cash flow from operations is crucial for financial health.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.90B5.99B7.61B7.47B5.28B3.48B
Gross Profit1.12B999.32M1.28B1.26B909.31M689.91M
EBITDA135.11M556.61M829.66M675.15M479.39M423.51M
Net Income16.11M36.05M274.19M239.97M95.25M146.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.16B13.51B11.90B9.04B7.39B6.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.76B2.25B1.96B981.43M869.83M1.64B
Total Debt7.40B5.91B4.48B4.04B3.26B2.89B
Total Liabilities10.80B9.36B8.19B6.73B5.26B4.64B
Stockholders Equity2.87B2.82B2.56B1.94B1.80B1.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.51B-2.76B-840.85M288.63M-837.75M-455.48M
Operating Cash Flow102.77M-885.32M684.62M916.63M-408.25M-120.54M
Investing Cash Flow-1.84B-1.96B-1.67B-630.49M-429.57M-319.66M
Financing Cash Flow1.24B2.32B2.05B428.64M614.07M823.50M

Canadian Solar Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price21.74
Price Trends
50DMA
23.50
Negative
100DMA
20.12
Negative
200DMA
15.51
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.61
Negative
RSI
40.15
Neutral
STOCH
42.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSIQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.79, below the 50-day MA of 23.50, and above the 200-day MA of 15.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CSIQ.

Canadian Solar Risk Analysis

Canadian Solar disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Canadian Solar reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Canadian Solar Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$26.76B17.2016.86%31.16%11.97%
66
Neutral
$5.30B26.4720.31%20.97%226.98%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
$1.37B-2.83-17.96%10.19%-34.29%-732.90%
61
Neutral
$1.78B-19.22-7.75%35.75%37.97%
49
Neutral
$2.14B-3.52-78.09%-0.14%66.71%
45
Neutral
$1.46B82.690.56%-4.46%1645.26%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CSIQ
Canadian Solar
19.77
9.29
88.65%
ENPH
Enphase Energy
38.25
-23.80
-38.36%
FSLR
First Solar
224.01
56.62
33.83%
JKS
JinkoSolar
25.81
6.08
30.84%
SEDG
SolarEdge Technologies
34.04
20.73
155.75%
ARRY
Array Technologies
11.71
4.24
56.76%

Canadian Solar Corporate Events

Canadian Solar Closes US$230 Million Convertible Notes Offering Due 2031
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Canadian Solar Inc. closed its previously announced private offering of US$230 million aggregate principal amount of 3.25% convertible senior notes due 2031, including the full exercise of an option by initial purchasers to buy an additional US$30 million. The transaction, sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A, generated approximately US$223.1 million in net proceeds after discounts and expenses, strengthening the company’s funding base as it continues to expand its global solar and battery energy storage manufacturing and project development activities, and potentially supporting its long-term strategy as an owner and operator of clean energy assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSIQ) stock is a Sell with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Solar stock, see the CSIQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Solar Prices US$200 Million Convertible Notes to Fund U.S. Manufacturing and Storage Expansion
Jan 9, 2026

On January 9, 2026, Canadian Solar priced a private offering of US$200 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2031 to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A, with an option for initial purchasers to buy up to an additional US$30 million, and expects to close the transaction around January 13, 2026, subject to customary conditions. The company plans to use the roughly US$194.6 million in estimated net proceeds to fund U.S. manufacturing investments and expand its battery energy storage and solar value chain, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes, underscoring its push to deepen its North American manufacturing footprint and strengthen its position across the solar and storage supply chain; the notes will carry a 3.25% coupon, mature in 2031, be convertible at a premium to the latest share price, and include standard redemption and repurchase features that balance financing flexibility for the company with downside protection for noteholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSIQ) stock is a Sell with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Solar stock, see the CSIQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Solar Swings to Nine-Month Loss Despite Higher Margins
Jan 7, 2026

In a Form 6-K filed on January 7, 2026, Canadian Solar reported selected unaudited financial results for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, showing net revenues of $4.38 billion, down slightly from $4.47 billion a year earlier, and a swing to a net loss attributable to the company of $17.8 million from a modest profit of $2.1 million in the prior-year period. While overall gross profit and gross margin improved to $901.8 million and 20.6%, respectively, higher general and administrative expenses, increased interest costs, and losses related to derivatives and foreign exchange weighed on the bottom line, with income before taxes turning negative and net income pressured despite stronger contributions from the Recurrent Energy segment; the filing underscores ongoing margin and financing challenges in a competitive solar and storage market even as the company continues to expand its project development business.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSIQ) stock is a Sell with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Solar stock, see the CSIQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Solar Plans US$200 Million Convertible Notes Offering to Boost U.S. Manufacturing and Storage Value Chain
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Canadian Solar Inc. announced a proposed private offering of US$200 million in convertible senior notes due 2031, with an additional US$30 million overallotment option for initial purchasers. The senior unsecured notes, to be sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A, will pay semi-annual interest and mature on January 15, 2031, unless earlier repurchased, redeemed or converted into Canadian Solar common shares at a conversion rate to be set at pricing. The company plans to deploy the proceeds to expand U.S. manufacturing capacity and invest across the value chain supporting its solar and battery energy storage solutions, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes, a move that underscores its strategy to deepen its North American manufacturing footprint and reinforce its position in the rapidly growing solar and storage markets. The notes include standard features such as issuer redemption rights after January 22, 2029 subject to share price triggers, tax-related redemption provisions, and holder put rights upon certain fundamental changes, while remaining unregistered under U.S. securities laws and restricted to private placements.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSIQ) stock is a Sell with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Solar stock, see the CSIQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Solar Names Veteran Insider Colin Parkin as President and Appoints Dylan Marx as COO
Dec 29, 2025

On December 24, 2025, Canadian Solar Inc. announced a leadership reshuffle, appointing long-time executive Colin Parkin to its Board of Directors and promoting him to President, succeeding founder Dr. Shawn Qu in that role, while Qu remains Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. At the same time, the company named Dylan Marx as Chief Operating Officer, with both executives bringing about three decades of combined experience within Canadian Solar and its affiliates, a move the board framed as strengthening internal succession, operational cohesion, and execution across its global operations as it expands manufacturing and investments in North America and approaches its 25th anniversary in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSIQ) stock is a Sell with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Solar stock, see the CSIQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Solar Resumes Direct Oversight of U.S. Operations
Dec 1, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Canadian Solar Inc. announced a strategic initiative to resume direct oversight of its U.S. operations and to continue reshoring manufacturing to North America. The company will form new joint ventures with American shareholders and its subsidiary, CSI Solar Co., Ltd., holding a 75.1% controlling stake in CS PowerTech to operate U.S.-based manufacturing and sales. This initiative aims to create thousands of American manufacturing jobs and strengthen the domestic supply chain, reflecting Canadian Solar’s commitment to its North American base and enhancing its industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSIQ) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Solar stock, see the CSIQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Solar Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results Amid Strategic U.S. Expansion
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Canadian Solar Inc. announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting net revenues of $1.5 billion, which was at the high end of their guidance. The company achieved a gross margin of 17.2%, surpassing expectations, driven by strong battery energy storage shipments and a strategic focus on profitable markets. Canadian Solar’s e-STORAGE division recorded a backlog increase to $3.1 billion, indicating robust future growth prospects. The company is also advancing its U.S. manufacturing facilities, with solar cell production in Indiana and lithium battery energy storage production in Kentucky expected to commence in 2026. Despite a decrease in total module shipments, the company maintained profitability through strategic project sales and disciplined financial management.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSIQ) stock is a Sell with a $5.58 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Solar stock, see the CSIQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Solar’s CSI Solar Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Canadian Solar’s subsidiary, CSI Solar, released its third-quarter financial report for 2025, showing a decrease in operating revenue and profits compared to the previous year. The decline was attributed to lower average selling prices and increased tariffs and freight costs, although there was growth in energy storage revenue and a reduction in manufacturing costs. Despite these challenges, the company reported a significant increase in net cash flow from operating activities due to improved sales receipts and optimized inventory management.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSIQ) stock is a Hold with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Solar stock, see the CSIQ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 09, 2026