Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
NYSE:NSA
Top Page
National Storage Affiliates
(NYSE:NSA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
â–²(4.44% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
NSA scores as a moderate setup: financial performance is weighed down by recent revenue/margin deterioration and leverage concerns, despite solid cash generation. Technicals are a clear positive with the stock trending above major moving averages and positive momentum. Valuation is the main drag due to a high P/E, while the earnings call supports a cautious recovery narrative but highlights refinancing and dividend coverage risks.
Positive Factors
Consistent cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow, with FCF closely tracking earnings, indicates durable internal cash generation to fund operations, maintenance capex and distributions. This provides structural support for dividend flexibility and reduces reliance on frequent external financing over the next several quarters.
Operational inflection: revenue & occupancy improving
Sequential improvement in same-store revenue and occupancy signals that marketing, pricing and operational initiatives are translating to demand. For a self-storage REIT, such durable improvements in occupancy and RevPSF tend to persist through market cycles when coupled with expense discipline, supporting stabilization of NOI and FFO over months ahead.
New preferred-equity platform & portfolio optimization
Introducing a preferred-equity platform and active portfolio optimization diversifies capital deployment and fee-generating activities beyond outright acquisitions. This structural diversification can preserve balance sheet capacity, monetize non-core assets, and offer alternative yield/partnership channels that support growth and liquidity over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline and margin compression
A structural slowdown in revenue growth and evident margin compression undermine core NOI and FFO generation for a REIT. Sustained weaker top-line performance reduces cash available for distributions and reinvestment, increases sensitivity to interest costs, and lengthens the timeline for fully restoring payout coverage and balance-sheet metrics.
Elevated leverage and near-term maturities
Concentrated 2026 maturities and leverage above the stated target create structural refinancing risk. Refinancing at higher rates or under constrained markets would raise interest expense and depress FFO, limiting discretionary activity (acquisitions, buybacks) and impeding deleveraging efforts across the next 6–12 months unless material asset sales or alternative financing occur.
Dividend coverage pressure
Projected inability to fully cover the dividend in 2026 is a structural concern for a REIT reliant on distributions to attract income investors. Persistent coverage shortfalls can force equity or preferred issuance, limit acquisition firepower, and weigh on investor confidence until coverage sustainably rebounds, likely over multiple quarters.
National Storage Affiliates (NSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.65B
Dividend Yield8.28%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)56.2
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth-4.98%
EPS Growth-65.45%
CountryUS
Employees1,466
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding76,960,770
10 Day Avg. Volume1,723,903
30 Day Avg. Volume1,470,559
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.29
Price to Sales (P/S)2.87
P/FCF Ratio7.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.14Price Target Upside-6.76% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$744.35M
National Storage Affiliates Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNational Storage Affiliates Trust is a Maryland real estate investment trust focused on the ownership, operation and acquisition of self storage properties located within the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas throughout the United States. As of September 30, 2020, the Company held ownership interests in and operated 788 self storage properties located in 35 states and Puerto Rico with approximately 49.5 million rentable square feet. NSA is one of the largest owners and operators of self storage properties among public and private companies in the United States.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Storage Affiliates generates revenue primarily through rental income from its extensive network of self-storage facilities. The company's revenue model is built on long-term leases with customers who pay monthly for storage space, creating a steady and predictable income stream. In addition to rental income, NSA benefits from ancillary services such as retail sales of packing supplies, insurance offerings for stored goods, and administrative fees for late payments. The company also engages in strategic acquisitions of self-storage properties to enhance its portfolio and increase revenue. Partnerships with local operators allow NSA to leverage existing customer bases and operational expertise, further contributing to its earnings growth.
National Storage Affiliates Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Ending Same-Store Occupancy
Indicates the percentage of storage units occupied at the end of a period in stores open for at least a year, reflecting demand stability and pricing power.
Indicates the percentage of storage units occupied at the end of a period in stores open for at least a year, reflecting demand stability and pricing power.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNational Storage Affiliates Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive operational inflection: management highlighted clear sequential improvements in same-store revenue trends, occupancy inflection (including January YoY occupancy +20 bps), stronger rental volumes, payroll and expense discipline, and strategic portfolio actions (brand consolidation, dispositions, JV and preferred-equity activity). Key near-term headwinds remain — full-year same-store revenue was down 2.3%, some large MSAs still face supply pressure, move-in rates are expected to be negative early in 2026, leverage sits slightly above target and $375M of maturities create refinancing risk. On balance, the company presented more substantive positives around momentum and execution than negatives, with management providing a cautious but confident guide for gradual recovery through 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Core FFO Beat and Full-Year Results
Reported core FFO per share of $0.57 for Q4 and $2.23 for the full year, at the high end of guidance and above consensus; full-year same-store NOI and same-store revenue finished at the high end of guidance ranges.
Sequential Same-Store Revenue and Occupancy Improvement
Same-store revenue decline narrowed to -70 basis points in Q4 (versus -260 bps in Q3) with sequential monthly improvement; year-end occupancy down 70 basis points (improved from -140 bps at Q3 end); January occupancy was +20 basis points year-over-year and that trend continued into February.
Average Revenue Per Square Foot Growth
Average revenue per occupied square foot grew ~100 basis points year-over-year in Q4, partially offsetting occupancy headwinds and contributing to improved RevPath.
Strong Rental Volume and Conversion
Rental volume improved materially (sq ft basis ~11% higher year-over-year in Q4), with management citing higher top-of-funnel activity, improved conversion rates and successful marketing/AI-driven pricing and promotions.
Expense Control and Payroll Savings
Operating expenses declined ~80 basis points in Q4; payroll costs decreased 4.1% in Q4 and 2.8% for the full year due to hours/operations optimization and call center/digital efficiencies.
Marketing Investments Driving Growth
Marketing spend increased 37% in Q4 and 31% for the full year as management prioritized customer acquisition where returns were evident, helping drive improved rental volumes and search/conversion performance.
Portfolio Optimization and Brand Consolidation
Continued portfolio optimization: consolidated another brand (down to six), exited 5 states and sold 15 properties totaling $97 million (full year); acquired 10 properties totaling $75 million across JVs and on-balance sheet; Q4 sales of $24M plus subsequent $21M, and a $10M acquisition post-quarter.
Liquidity and Access to Capital
Maintained liquidity with ~$400M revolver balance and ~$550M availability; management believes it has optionality to address $375M of 2026 maturities and access to term loan, private placement and secured markets.
New Preferred Equity Platform Off to a Start
Launched a preferred equity investments platform (2-year target deployment); already has 3 properties under contract totaling over $50M, providing an additional growth channel alongside JVs.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Same-Store Revenue Decline
Same-store revenues declined 2.3% for the full year, reflecting the ongoing recovery lift still required across parts of the portfolio despite sequential improvement in Q4.
Ongoing Occupancy and Market Pressure in Some MSAs
Although occupancy trends improved, several large markets (e.g., Phoenix, Atlanta, Gulf Coast FL) remain challenged by elevated new supply; some markets still negative year-over-year and will require time to absorb additional product.
Near-Term Move-In Rate Pressure
Management expects move-in rates to be negative for the first ~4–5 months of 2026 (tough comps from 2025) before inflecting to neutral/positive in the back half of the year.
Leverage Slightly Above Target Range
Net debt to EBITDA was 6.6x at quarter end, modestly above the stated 5.5x–6.5x target range; guidance implies leverage will remain roughly neutral through 2026 absent material transaction activity.
Dividend Coverage and Payout Pressure
Guidance implies the company will not fully cover the dividend in 2026; management expects dividend coverage to return toward the back half of 2026 and into 2027 if fundamentals continue to improve.
Refinancing and Interest Rate Headwinds
$375M of debt maturities in 2026 (including a $275M term loan) may require refinancing likely at higher rates (~0.5% or so higher modeled), creating an interest expense headwind factored into guidance.
Other Revenue Drag and Policy Restrictions
Other property-related income (including tenant insurance) was a ~40 basis-point drag on same-store revenue in the quarter; temporary regulatory restrictions/state-of-emergency actions (e.g., Oklahoma wildfire-related limits) have constrained pricing in affected pockets.
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance calls for same-store revenue growth of about 90 basis points, same-store operating expense growth of 3%, flat same-store NOI and core FFO per share of $2.19, with acquisition and disposition ranges of $50–$150 million (NSA share) that are roughly neutral at the midpoints; this follows Q4 core FFO/share of $0.57 and FY‑2025 core FFO/share of $2.23 (at the high end of guidance). For context, Q4 same-store revenue was down 70 bps (FY‑2025 down 2.3%), Q4 expenses were down 80 bps (FY +3.1%), payroll was down 4.1% in Q4 (‑2.8% FY) while marketing was up 37% in Q4 (31% FY), and rent roll‑downs are in the low‑to‑mid‑30s; balance sheet highlights include $375 million of 2026 maturities ($275M term loan due July, $100M unsecured notes in May/Oct), ~ $400M revolver balance with $550M availability, and net debt/EBITDA of 6.6x (versus a 5.5–6.5x target). Management expects occupancy to have inflected to +20 bps YoY in January, move‑in rates to be negative for ~4–5 months before turning neutral/positive in the back half, and a midpoint FFO decline of $0.04 (roughly $0.02 from higher G&A and $0.02 from refinancing/insurance captive headwinds).National Storage Affiliates Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are mixed: cash generation is a relative strength (consistently positive operating cash flow/free cash flow), but recent fundamentals weakened with revenue turning negative and margin compression in the latest annual period. Leverage was elevated through 2024, and the sharp reported 2025 balance-sheet improvement is a trend discontinuity that reduces confidence.Income Statement
Profitability is generally solid, with net margins holding in the low-to-high teens across most annual periods and strong operating profitability in 2021–2024. However, growth has turned negative: revenue shifted from strong gains in 2021–2022 to a small decline in 2024 and a steep drop in 2025 (annual). Margin compression is also evident in 2025 versus prior years, pointing to a weaker near-term earnings trajectory.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows mixed signals. From 2020–2024 the company carried substantial leverage (debt-to-equity generally around ~1.7x to ~3.2x), which increases sensitivity to refinancing costs and downturns. 2025 (annual) shows extremely low reported debt versus equity, which would be a major positive if sustainable, but it is a sharp discontinuity from prior years and reduces confidence in the trend. Returns on equity are moderate (mid-single-digit to low-teens), improving into 2023–2025.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive, and free cash flow tracks closely with net income (roughly ~0.89–0.94x in recent years), suggesting earnings are backed by cash. That said, free cash flow growth deteriorated meaningfully in 2024 and was very weak in 2025 (annual), signaling pressure on cash expansion. Coverage of accounting earnings by operating cash flow is generally adequate, with an unusually high figure in 2025 (annual) that aligns with the same year’s balance sheet discontinuity.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 752.93M | 770.34M | 858.06M | 801.57M | 585.67M |
| Gross Profit | 346.06M | 558.48M | 629.08M | 590.54M | 430.41M |
| EBITDA | 281.82M | 531.15M | 626.72M | 532.21M | 379.00M |
| Net Income | 122.48M | 111.52M | 156.67M | 103.74M | 105.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.08B | 5.35B | 5.93B | 6.07B | 5.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.33M | 50.41M | 64.98M | 35.31M | 25.01M |
| Total Debt | 22.62M | 3.47B | 3.68B | 3.58B | 2.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.55B | 3.59B | 3.81B | 3.68B | 3.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 946.04M | 1.08B | 1.42B | 1.65B | 1.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 299.81M | 342.49M | 406.03M | 400.12M | 303.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 338.50M | 363.06M | 441.58M | 443.85M | 331.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 19.86M | 425.42M | 161.10M | -584.16M | -2.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -385.47M | -825.42M | -557.19M | 154.64M | 1.67B |
National Storage Affiliates Technical Analysis
Positive
34.47
Price Trends
31.40
Positive
30.48
Positive
30.71
Positive
Market Momentum
0.93
Negative
60.62
Neutral
57.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.26, above the 50-day MA of 31.40, and above the 200-day MA of 30.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NSA.
National Storage Affiliates Risk Analysis
National Storage Affiliates disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Storage Affiliates reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Storage Affiliates Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $33.02B | 32.61 | 7.10% | 5.01% | 3.38% | 17.16% | |
72 Outperform | $1.43B | 13.01 | 6.09% | 13.07% | -11.22% | -24.64% | |
71 Outperform | $53.37B | 33.74 | 18.82% | 4.63% | 2.30% | -0.22% | |
69 Neutral | $9.16B | 25.64 | 12.82% | 5.69% | 4.19% | -12.19% | |
67 Neutral | $56.92M | 32.10 | 3.70% | 5.63% | 3.36% | -43.55% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $4.65B | 56.16 | 7.29% | 8.28% | -4.98% | -65.45% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
NSA
National Storage Affiliates
34.47
-1.89
-5.20%
CUBE
Cubesmart
40.21
-0.16
-0.38%
EXR
Extra Space Storage
147.64
0.99
0.68%
PSA
Public Storage
303.95
10.61
3.62%
IIPR
Innovative Industrial Properties
54.62
-11.03
-16.80%
SELF
Global Self Storage
5.02
0.12
2.45%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.