Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A (NP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 240.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 231.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 60
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 94,718,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 207,764
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 240,096
• PEG Ratio: -0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): -17.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 25.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 84.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 21.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 33.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 32.88
• 1Y Price Target: $26.10
• Price Target Upside: 11.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.52
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $193.76M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▼(-4.09% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (deeply negative equity and rising debt) and an expensive valuation (very high P/E). These are partially offset by strong operating performance, accelerating revenue growth, and healthy free cash flow, while technical indicators remain mixed without a clear bullish trend.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistent, improving operating cash flow and growing free cash flow provide durable internal funding for operations, reinvestment, and debt service. Cash quality roughly matching net income in 2024–2025 reduces reliance on external financing and supports resilience over the next several quarters.

Operating profitability

High operating earnings relative to revenue indicate sustainable margin advantages and operational efficiency. Persistent profitability through 2024–2025 suggests structural cost control and pricing power that can sustain cash generation and fund strategic priorities despite macro variability.

Revenue momentum

A marked acceleration in revenue growth in 2025 points to improving product-market fit or market share gains. Durable top-line momentum over multiple periods indicates the business can scale revenue, strengthening long-term earnings prospects and justifying reinvestment in growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Deep negative equity

Persistently deeply negative shareholders' equity constrains financial flexibility and signals prior losses or capital structure issues. It raises governance and creditor concern, can limit access to capital markets, and increases vulnerability to shocks over the medium term.

Rising debt

A sharp increase in debt elevates leverage and interest obligations, narrowing free cash flow available for growth or deleveraging. Higher debt raises refinancing risk and can strain covenants or credit terms, making the company more sensitive to rate moves and cash-flow volatility.

Small asset base

Operating with a small asset base magnifies balance-sheet strain when leverage rises, reducing collateral for borrowing and limiting capacity to absorb losses. This structural constraint makes the firm more vulnerable to adverse shocks and restricts strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

A data-driven managing general agent for flood insurance. Sells residential and commercial flood insurance (primary & excess), and parametric earthquake insurance. Uses AI and machine learning platforms (e.g. underwriting engine "Triton", policy management "Poseidon"), distributes via agency network, and does not take balance sheet risk or handle claims themselves; rather, insurance and reinsurance carriers do.

Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating profitability and cash generation are strong with accelerating revenue growth, but persistently deeply negative equity and sharply rising debt in 2025 materially increase financial risk and reduce flexibility.

Income Statement

NP shows strong operating profitability with high operating earnings relative to revenue in 2023–2024, while net income also improved meaningfully in 2024 and stayed solid in 2025. Revenue growth accelerated sharply in 2025 versus prior years, indicating strong momentum. Offsetting this, several 2025 margin fields appear missing/zeroed in the dataset, limiting visibility into the current-year profitability profile versus 2024’s very strong margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is the key weakness: stockholders’ equity is deeply negative across all periods, which is a major risk signal and reduces financial flexibility. Debt is substantial and rose sharply in 2025 versus 2024, while the company operates with a relatively small asset base. Even though negative equity can distort traditional leverage and return measures, the overall picture points to elevated balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a bright spot: operating cash flow is strong and improved versus 2023, and free cash flow is positive and growing (notably in 2025). Cash flow quality looks healthy, with cash generation roughly matching net income in 2024–2025. A mild watch-out is that the 2025 operating cash flow-to-net income coverage dipped slightly below 1, suggesting earnings were a bit higher than cash generation in the most recent period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	159.55M	119.30M	84.87M
Gross Profit	103.06M	79.23M	54.51M
EBITDA	75.59M	66.93M	47.37M
Net Income	37.41M	34.59M	17.89M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	65.30M	48.15M	41.67M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.04M	7.09M	8.13M
Total Debt	240.00M	133.65M	174.86M
Total Liabilities	292.79M	414.14M	429.27M
Stockholders Equity	-227.49M	-365.99M	-387.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	47.69M	46.21M	14.62M
Operating Cash Flow	51.67M	49.93M	18.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.98M	-3.71M	-4.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-35.21M	-42.47M	-9.87M

Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DSP	75 Outperform	$744.40M	8.21	19.72%	―	22.97%	49.49%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GRND	67 Neutral	$2.31B	27.11	60.60%	―	28.97%	-4.18%
NP	54 Neutral	$3.24B	231.90	―	―	―	―