Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.69B
• Dividend Yield: 8.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 54.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 1.51%
• EPS Growth: -78.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 49
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.83
• Shares Outstanding: 97,294,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,517,539
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,522,294
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.90
• 1Y Price Target: $29.67
• Price Target Upside: 7.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.08B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▲(8.34% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/14/26

Score is driven primarily by improved financial health and strong operating cash flow, supported by constructive technical trends. It is held back by sharp 2025 profit compression and historical free-cash-flow volatility, plus valuation pressure from a high P/E (partly offset by the high dividend). Earnings-call guidance and commentary were generally positive but highlighted meaningful near-term uncertainty and impairment-related headwinds.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet strength

Material deleveraging and rebuilt equity give NOG durable financial flexibility. Reported equity above $2.1B and a move to no reported debt in 2025 reduce refinancing and solvency risk, supporting acquisitions, dividend continuity and downside resilience across commodity cycles.

Cash generation

Strong adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow in 2025 demonstrate the company’s ability to convert production into cash. Reliable operating cash coverage (roughly 2.8x) supports dividends, debt paydown and organic ground-game spend, giving a persistent cash cushion through cycles.

Strategic acreage and Utica acquisition

The Utica/Antero deal and record ground-game materially expand inventory and midstream optionality, diversifying basin exposure. A larger Appalachian position and added locations enhance long-term development flexibility and potential production growth independent of single-basin risks.

Negative Factors

Large impairments

Substantial non-cash write-downs signal lower reserve valuations and increase earnings volatility. Impairments erode reported equity and can prompt more conservative capital allocation, complicating trend analysis and potentially constraining shareholder distributions if price-driven revaluations persist.

Free-cash-flow volatility

Historic swings from multi-year negative FCF to a large 2025 inflection highlight sensitivity to commodity prices and timing of operator activity. Such volatility undermines predictability for sustained buybacks, acquisitions or dividend increases and raises execution risk for multi-year plans.

Operator-driven activity uncertainty

As a non-operator, NOG’s production and cash flow depend on third-party operator programs. The wide low/high 2026 scenarios (70–90 net wells) reflect durable visibility risk: operator curtailments or delays can materially swing volumes, capex needs and cash generation versus plan.

Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

NOG makes money by owning non-operated working interests in oil and natural gas wells and then selling its share of the hydrocarbons produced. Its primary revenue stream is upstream production revenue: for each well in which it owns an interest, NOG receives its share of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids volumes (or the cash proceeds from marketing those volumes), with realized prices influenced by commodity benchmarks, regional differentials, and the company’s commodity risk management (hedging) activities. Because it is non-operated, NOG typically does not earn operator fees; instead, it generates earnings from the net cash margin between (a) sales proceeds from its share of production and (b) its share of lease operating expenses, production taxes, transportation/processing costs, and other field-level costs charged by the operator. A second important driver of earnings is acquisitions: NOG deploys capital to buy additional non-operated interests and related assets; these transactions increase the company’s production base and future cash flows, while purchase accounting can also create gains or losses in reported results depending on the specifics of the deal. NOG’s economics and pace of cash generation are materially affected by third-party operators’ drilling and completion activity (which determines when new wells are brought online), by commodity prices, and by differentials and midstream access in the regions where it owns interests. Significant partnerships typically take the form of joint participation with multiple third-party operators across its acreage positions rather than operating the assets itself; operators control development decisions, and NOG’s revenue scales with its ownership percentages and the operators’ execution and capital programs.

Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength improved materially (rebuilt equity; leverage down vs. 2021–2022), and operating cash flow is consistently strong. Offsetting this, 2025 profitability compressed sharply (very low net margin) and free cash flow has been volatile (negative for several years before turning positive in 2025), with some 2025 data consistency flags noted.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully from 2020 to 2025 (annual growth positive in most years, with 2025 up ~13%), showing a stronger scale than the earlier period. However, profitability has become far less consistent: net margin fell sharply from very strong levels in 2022–2024 to a low ~1.6% in 2025, and several margin fields for 2025 appear missing/zeroed, limiting confidence in the latest-year margin quality. Overall, the income profile looks cyclical—strong in 2022–2024, but a clear profit compression in 2025.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved substantially versus earlier years: debt-to-equity moved from highly leveraged levels in 2021–2022 to around ~0.90–1.02 in 2023–2024, and the latest 2025 data shows no debt (as reported). Equity has grown materially over time (from a deficit in 2020 to >$2.1B in 2025), supporting balance-sheet resilience. The main caution is data consistency in 2025 (debt reported at zero while assets remain sizable), and returns on equity cooled to ~1.8% in 2025 after much stronger levels in 2022–2024.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently strong and covers earnings well (roughly 2.6–3.1x in 2022–2024; ~2.8x in 2025), indicating good cash conversion and non-cash charges typical for the sector. The key weakness is free cash flow volatility: it was negative in 2021–2024, then jumped sharply positive in 2025, with the reported free cash flow growth extremely large in magnitude (suggesting a major swing year-over-year). Overall cash generation is solid, but free cash flow stability is a risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.10B	2.16B	1.91B	1.99B	975.09M
Gross Profit	675.20M	835.98M	913.86M	1.32B	586.49M
EBITDA	1.05B	1.58B	1.62B	1.11B	206.44M
Net Income	38.76M	520.31M	922.97M	773.24M	6.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.41B	5.60B	4.48B	2.88B	1.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.30M	8.93M	8.20M	2.53M	9.52M
Total Debt	2.40B	2.37B	1.84B	1.53B	803.44M
Total Liabilities	3.28B	3.28B	2.44B	2.13B	1.31B
Stockholders Equity	2.13B	2.32B	2.05B	745.26M	215.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	252.83M	-283.19M	-661.93M	-431.36M	-197.32M
Operating Cash Flow	1.51B	1.41B	1.18B	928.42M	396.47M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.25B	-1.67B	-1.86B	-1.40B	-634.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-247.46M	266.83M	684.69M	467.37M	246.06M

Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 27.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.73, above the 50-day MA of 25.42, and above the 200-day MA of 24.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOG.

Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BSM	80 Outperform	$3.25B	9.38	27.16%	9.94%	-0.75%	-29.40%
SM	74 Outperform	$6.50B	3.32	14.00%	4.38%	34.93%	-11.85%
CRGY	68 Neutral	$4.09B	15.28	3.06%	5.78%	32.31%	-122.30%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NOG	65 Neutral	$2.69B	54.12	1.69%	8.18%	1.51%	-78.38%
BKV	59 Neutral	$3.11B	14.44	10.00%	―	31.67%	―

Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events

Northern Oil And Gas Completes Public Equity Offering

On March 11, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with BofA Securities, Inc. for a previously announced public equity offering of 7,207,208 shares of common stock, including a 30-day option for the underwriter to purchase up to 1,081,081 additional shares. The equity offering closed on March 13, 2026, with the company planning to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, notably to repay a portion of outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility, which should modestly strengthen its capital structure and financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.

Northern Oil And Gas Expands Utica Assets and Liquidity

On February 23, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. closed its previously announced joint acquisition of non-operated upstream and midstream interests in Ohio Utica Shale assets from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream. Under amended purchase agreements signed on February 22, 2026, Northern took a 40% interest in both the upstream and midstream assets, with Infinity Natural Resources increasing its stake to 60%.

Northern’s share of the unadjusted purchase price was set at $320 million for the upstream assets and $160 million for the midstream assets, and the company paid $464.5 million in cash at closing, funded with cash on hand, operating free cash flow and borrowings under its revolving credit facility. On February 23, 2026, Northern also amended its credit agreement, lifting the borrowing base to $1.975 billion and elected commitments to $1.8 billion, effectively adding about $200 million in liquidity to support its expanded Utica footprint and overall growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOG) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Oil And Gas stock, see the NOG Stock Forecast page.