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Northern Oil And Gas (NOG)
NYSE:NOG
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Northern Oil And Gas
(NYSE:NOG)
70Neutral
Positive Factors
Dividends
The quarterly base dividend was raised by approximately 7% to $0.45 per share, offering an above-average yield of about 5%.
Merger and Acquisition
NOG is preparing a sweeter offer for the new year, suggesting potential for a successful acquisition of Granite Ridge.
Natural Gas Production
NOG continues to benefit from its natural gas position with production coming in between 315 – 319 mmcfd, above consensus of 300 mmcfd.
Negative Factors
Capex Expectations
NOG announced 2025 guidance which fell short of expectations, with capex ~3% above consensus while oil volume guidance was ~5% below.
Logistical Issues
Fourth quarter volumes were negatively impacted by Bakken wildfires and third-party rail delays in Uinta.
Oil Production Guidance
2025 oil guidance coming in at 77 mbd is below the estimate and consensus at 81 kbd.
Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.04B
Dividend Yield5.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth29.45%
EPS Growth-48.29%
CountryUS
Employees49
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength87
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.14
Shares Outstanding99,113,650
10 Day Avg. Volume1,643,179
30 Day Avg. Volume1,940,595
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.55
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.59
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)2.60
P/FCF Ratio2.30
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.85Price Target Upside44.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthern Oil and Gas generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. By acquiring non-operated working interests, the company benefits from its partnerships with major operators who manage the day-to-day drilling and extraction activities. This model allows NOG to participate in the revenue streams generated from the sale of oil and natural gas without directly managing the operations. Northern Oil and Gas also enhances its earnings by strategically acquiring assets in regions known for high productivity and favorable economic conditions. The company's revenue is influenced by several factors, including commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, NOG's partnerships with leading operators in the industry help to optimize its asset portfolio and contribute to its overall earnings.
Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Northern Oil And Gas has demonstrated solid financial recovery with substantial revenue and income growth. Notably, their cash flow management is robust, and the balance sheet shows improved stability despite past high leverage.Income Statement
Northern Oil And Gas has shown significant revenue growth over the years, notably increasing from $324 million in 2020 to over $2.2 billion in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin has been substantial, and the company has demonstrated strong profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 23.4% in 2024. There was a remarkable recovery from a net loss in 2020 to consistent profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, indicating some variability in operating efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an increased Stockholders' Equity from negative in 2020 to over $2.3 billion in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has improved significantly due to debt reduction, indicating enhanced financial stability. However, the company still faces potential risk from past high leverage periods, though recent improvements are noteworthy.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals strong Operating Cash Flow growth, reaching $1.4 billion in 2024, which supports robust Free Cash Flow. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is favorable, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The consistent Free Cash Flow growth and positive Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio highlight effective cash management.85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 2.16B | 1.91B | 1.99B | 975.09M | 324.07M | Gross Profit |
| 2.23B | 913.86M | 1.32B | 586.49M | 15.83M | EBIT |
| 837.83M | 1.12B | 853.19M | 415.31M | -2.72M | EBITDA |
| 1.58B | 1.62B | 1.11B | 206.44M | -685.58M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 520.31M | 922.97M | 773.24M | 6.36M | -906.04M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 8.93M | 8.20M | 2.53M | 9.52M | 1.43M | Total Assets |
| 5.60B | 4.48B | 2.88B | 1.52B | 872.09M | Total Debt |
| 2.37B | 1.84B | 1.53B | 803.44M | 944.84M | Net Debt |
| 2.36B | 1.83B | 1.52B | 793.92M | 943.41M | Total Liabilities |
| 3.28B | 2.44B | 2.13B | 1.31B | 1.10B | Stockholders Equity |
| 2.32B | 2.05B | 745.26M | 215.13M | -223.30M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 1.41B | -661.93M | -431.36M | -197.32M | 47.76M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.41B | 1.18B | 928.42M | 396.47M | 331.69M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.67B | -1.86B | -1.40B | -634.43M | -283.93M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 266.83M | 684.69M | 467.37M | 246.06M | -62.40M |
Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis
Neutral
30.95
Price Trends
33.82
Negative
36.55
Negative
36.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.73
Negative
49.47
Neutral
84.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.36, below the 50-day MA of 33.82, and below the 200-day MA of 36.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NOG.
Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
30.95
-7.39
-19.27%
MTDR
Matador Resources
52.24
-13.40
-20.41%
SM
SM Energy
30.79
-18.22
-37.18%
Northern Oil And Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -12.57% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with significant achievements in terms of production growth, financial performance, and strategic acquisitions. However, these were offset by operational disruptions and increased costs. The company's long-term growth strategy remains strong, but immediate challenges are notable.Highlights
Record Production Growth
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. reported a 25% year-over-year growth in oil volumes, achieving high single-digit growth for 2025 with a strong exit expected in 2025.
Successful Acquisition and Expansion
The company executed significant acquisitions, including 14 ground game deals in Q4, expanding in key basins like Appalachia, Permian, and Uinta.
Strong Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 billion and free cash flow was $461 million for 2024, marking all-time highs for the company.
Positive Outlook for M&A
The company is evaluating $8 billion in assets across various basins, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth.
Continued Dividend Growth
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. delivered nearly $260 million in returns through dividends and share repurchases in 2024.
Lowlights
Operational Disruptions
The company faced multiple challenges, including forest fires, refinery outages, and freeze-offs, which affected Q4 oil volumes and will impact the start of 2025.
Higher Lease Operating Expenses
LOE increased to $9.62 per BOE due to fixed carrying costs and disruptions primarily in the Williston Basin.
Delayed Well Completions
Refrac start-up delays and deferrals in the Williston Basin and third-party takeaway issues in the Uinta Basin led to delayed well completions.
Increased Workover Costs
Workover costs have increased as shale wells age, contributing to a higher capital expenditure.
Company Guidance
During Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Chad Allen detailed the guidance for 2025, emphasizing a production range of 130,000 to 145,000 BOE per day, with oil production expected between 75,000 to 79,000 barrels per day. The capital expenditure budget is set between $1.05 billion and $1.2 billion, including 25% allocated for ground game acquisition and development and 10% for the Appalachian drilling partnership. Cash taxes are projected to be under $10 million, primarily from state income taxes. The call highlighted a production ramp towards the end of the year, with a significant portion of completions anticipated in the back half of 2025, and noted the potential for further growth into 2026 due to the strategic build-up of the D&C list and the completion of ongoing projects.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.