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NGL Energy Partners (NGL)
NYSE:NGL
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NGL Energy Partners
(NYSE:NGL)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
▲(31.98% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings outlook with record Water Solutions performance and reaffirmed EBITDA guidance. These positives are tempered by meaningful balance-sheet leverage risk and a very high P/E, which reduces valuation support.
Positive Factors
Water Solutions scale & growth
Rapid, sustained growth in Water Solutions shows durable volumetric scale and pricing leverage in produced-water handling. High contracted and paid volumes plus record daily throughput support recurring fee-like revenue, making this segment a structural earnings driver less exposed to oil price swings.
Improving cash generation and margins
Consistently positive operating and free cash flow provides a durable cushion to fund capex, service debt, and enable buybacks. Improved EBITDA margins indicate operational leverage from investments; these cash-generation dynamics support long-term financial flexibility despite cyclicality.
Capital allocation & execution track record
Active deleveraging, meaningful buybacks and successful project execution signal disciplined capital allocation and operational competence. Reducing preferreds and repurchasing units lowers future dilution, while on-time, under-budget projects increase confidence in future contracted volume and EBITDA growth.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage / balance sheet risk
Sustained high leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk in a cyclical midstream business. Even with recent deleveraging, a still-elevated debt profile limits the firm's ability to absorb prolonged weak volumes or pursue large growth investments without adding leverage or equity.
Shrinking top line
Declining revenue over multiple periods undermines the sustainability of recent margin gains and cash flow improvements. Persistent top-line contraction raises concern that operational fixes and cost saves may not fully offset lost scale, making earnings and cash flow more sensitive to volume and pricing shifts.
Segment EBITDA declines & margin pressure
Material declines in crude and liquids logistics EBITDA highlight exposure to commodity prices, contract mix shifts and lower-tariff volumes. Margin erosion on key pipelines despite volume gains shows sensitivity of unit economics, increasing earnings concentration risk if Water Solutions growth slows.
NGL Energy Partners (NGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)464.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)310.1
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth-38.82%
EPS Growth92.56%
CountryUS
Employees607
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding123,814,285
10 Day Avg. Volume275,682
30 Day Avg. Volume464,029
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.17
P/FCF Ratio11.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.25
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.87B
NGL Energy Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNGL Energy Partners LP engages in the transportation, storage, blending, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, refined products / renewables, and water solutions. The company operates in three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics. The Water Solutions segment transports, treats, recycles, and disposes produced and flowback water generated from oil and natural gas production; aggregates and sells recovered crude oil; disposes solids, such as tank bottoms, and drilling fluid and muds, as well as performs truck and frac tank washouts; and sells produced water for reuse and recycle, and brackish non-potable water. The Crude Oil Logistics segment purchases crude oil from producers and marketers, and transports it to refineries for resale at pipeline injection stations, storage terminals, barge loading facilities, rail facilities, refineries, and other trade hubs; and provides storage, terminaling, and transportation services through pipelines. The Liquids Logistics segment supplies natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, and biodiesel to commercial, retail, and industrial customers in the United States and Canada through its 24 terminals, third-party storage and terminal facilities, and nine common carrier pipelines, as well as through fleet of leased railcars. This segment is also involved in the marine export of butane through its facility located in Chesapeake, Virginia. NGL Energy Holdings LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyNGL Energy Partners generates revenue through multiple key streams, including transportation fees for hauling crude oil, charges for terminal storage, and fees associated with water disposal services. The company operates a fleet of trucks and pipelines that facilitate the efficient movement of crude oil and produced water, generating significant revenue from transportation contracts. Additionally, NGL earns income from its water solutions business, which involves the management and disposal of produced water generated during oil extraction. Strategic partnerships with oil and gas producers enhance NGL's revenue potential by securing long-term contracts and expanding its service capabilities, while its focus on operational efficiency helps to maintain competitive pricing and profitability.
NGL Energy Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial picture driven by record water volumes, strong Water Solutions EBITDA growth (+16.5%), consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth (+9.2%), successful project execution ahead of schedule and under budget, and meaningful capital allocation progress (preferred redemption, common unit repurchases, reduced leverage). Offsetting items include declines in Crude Oil and Liquids Logistics EBITDA (approximately -11% and -18%), lower per-barrel margins on parts of the pipeline business, near-term weather-related volume variability, and the multi-step, longer-timeline nature of large-scale treatment projects and AI benefits which remain unquantified.Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations of $172.5 million versus $158.0 million a year ago, a 9.2% increase; reaffirmed full-year EBITDA guidance of $650–$660 million and projecting fiscal 2027 EBITDA to exceed $700 million for the first time.
Water Solutions Record Volumes and Strong EBITDA
Water Solutions adjusted EBITDA of $154.5 million versus $132.7 million prior-year Q3, a 16.5% increase. Physical produced water processed averaged 3.07 million barrels per day versus 2.60 million bpd prior-year Q3, up 17.1%. Total volumes paid to dispose (including deficiency volumes) were 3.13 million bpd versus 2.91 million bpd, up approximately 7% year-over-year.
All-Time Daily Water Disposal Records
Achieved intraday operational records in the period: an all-time daily record of ~3.3 million bpd in the quarter and 3.5+ million bpd received on January 16, reflecting capacity increases from capital investments (including 27 miles of 24-inch Western Express pipeline expansion).
Capital Allocation and Deleveraging Progress
Redeemed an additional ~15% of original Class D preferred outstanding; repurchased 1.6 million common units in the quarter and ~8.7 million units (~7% of outstanding) since program inception at an average price of $5.70. Leverage reduced to the low 4.0x area and management has eliminated roughly 25% of future common unit dilution through warrant purchases and repurchases.
Successful Project Execution
Delaware Basin growth projects executed ahead of schedule and under budget; new contracted volumes from these projects are online and contributing to results, enabling management to expect a strong start to fiscal 2027.
Strategic Portfolio Streamlining
Liquids platform repositioned (sale of wholesale propane business and 17 NGL terminals, exit of refined products, winding down biodiesel marketing) to focus on Centennial butane blending; management reports the streamlined footprint is performing as expected.
Technology and Long-Term Treatment Initiatives
AI/machine-learning initiative in year two using SCADA and other data to drive operational efficiencies (anticipated measurable contributions this calendar year). Entered an MOU with Natura Resources to evaluate advanced modular nuclear reactor + thermal desalination for large-scale produced water treatment; progressing toward TPDES discharge permit draft and long-term desalination strategy without immediate nuclear CapEx to NGL.
Operating Expense Improvement
Reported operating expenses of $0.18 per barrel this quarter attributable to nonrecurring expense reductions, contributing to improved unit economics.
Negative Updates
Crude Oil Logistics EBITDA Decline
Crude Oil Logistics adjusted EBITDA declined to $15.4 million from $17.3 million prior-year Q3, a decrease of approximately 11%, driven by lower oil prices and a reduction in higher-tariff committed producer volumes.
Liquids Logistics EBITDA Decline
Liquids Logistics adjusted EBITDA decreased to $15.2 million versus $18.6 million prior-year Q3, a decline of roughly 18.3% following the strategic repositioning and wind-down of several non-core businesses.
Lower Margins on Grand Mesa Despite Volume Increase
Grand Mesa pipeline physical volumes rose to ~85,000 bpd from ~61,000 bpd (up ~39%), but margins per barrel were lower in the quarter due to weaker oil prices and reduced volumes from higher-tariff committed producers.
Near-Term Weather-Related Volume Variability
Experienced several mid-January days with volumes below 3.0 million bpd due to extreme cold; while management does not expect a material impact to the full-year guide because >1.5 million bpd of volumes are under MVC/CBC contracts, short-term operational variability occurred.
Uncertainty and Timing Around Large-Scale Treatment Projects and AI Benefits
Large-scale desalination and nuclear-linked treatment projects require multiple regulatory and commercial steps (TPDES permitting, customer contracts, off-take for new water) and may take quarters or years; Natura MOU is exploratory and NGL cannot quantify near-term CapEx liability on the nuclear side. AI-driven savings and revenue uplift are acknowledged but not yet quantified.
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $650–$660 million and said recent contracted volumes set the partnership up to exceed $700 million of EBITDA in fiscal 2027; third‑quarter adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was $172.5 million (up 9.2% YoY from $158.0M), with Water Solutions generating $154.5 million (up 16.5% YoY from $132.7M) on a physical disposal rate of 3.07 million barrels per day (up 17.1% from 2.6M bpd) and total paid disposal volumes of 3.13M bpd versus 2.91M bpd (≈+7%); the business hit an in‑quarter daily record of ~3.3M bpd and topped 3.5M bpd on January 16, with over 1.5M bpd under MVC/CBC, operating expense of $0.18 per barrel for the quarter, Grand Mesa volumes ~85,000 bpd (vs. 61,000 prior), Crude Oil Logistics adj. EBITDA $15.4M (vs. $17.3M) and Liquids Logistics $15.2M (vs. $18.6M), while the company redeemed an additional 15% of original Class D preferreds, repurchased 1.6M common units in the quarter (8.7M total, ~7% outstanding, avg. $5.70) having nearly exhausted the board‑approved repurchase plan, reduced leverage to the low ~4.0x area, increased growth capital by over $100M across Q2–Q3, and completed a 27‑mile, 24‑inch Western Express expansion to support future growth.NGL Energy Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operations and cash generation have improved (positive net income and healthy operating/free cash flow), but the balance sheet is a major constraint due to high leverage and declining equity. Shrinking revenue and historically volatile results keep the overall financial profile in the mid-range despite the recent rebound.Income Statement
Profitability has improved meaningfully versus prior years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) showing solid operating and EBITDA margins and positive net income. That said, the top line has been shrinking (TTM revenue down sharply, with multiple years of declines), which raises questions about the durability of earnings even as margins improve. Historically, results have been volatile, including loss years, which keeps the score in the middle range despite the recent rebound.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains the key overhang. Recent periods show a high debt load relative to equity (debt-to-equity consistently elevated), which reduces flexibility in a weaker volume/price environment. While TTM returns on equity are strong, equity has also trended lower over time, and the overall balance sheet profile looks more leveraged than is comfortable for a cyclical/commodity-exposed business.38
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are both healthy and comfortably positive, supporting debt service and reinvestment. However, free cash flow is down versus the prior period and cash conversion is not consistently strong (free cash flow is less than net income in TTM), suggesting working-capital and/or capital-spend needs can meaningfully influence year-to-year cash outcomes.66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.18B | 3.47B | 4.15B | 5.68B | 7.95B | 5.23B |
| Gross Profit | 755.25M | 707.38M | 701.76M | 716.50M | 519.88M | 733.20M |
| EBITDA | 639.38M | 594.99M | 380.41M | 558.06M | 377.76M | 408.73M |
| Net Income | 159.11M | 39.37M | -143.75M | 51.39M | -184.76M | -639.82M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.38B | 4.61B | 5.02B | 5.46B | 6.07B | 5.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.48M | 13.55M | 38.91M | 5.43M | 3.82M | 4.83M |
| Total Debt | 3.15B | 3.08B | 2.97B | 2.95B | 3.47B | 3.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.79B | 3.91B | 4.02B | 4.14B | 4.80B | 4.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 623.54M | 676.70M | 1.03B | 1.35B | 1.30B | 1.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 291.14M | 51.65M | 51.65M | 297.42M | 63.49M | 117.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 525.54M | 297.46M | 297.46M | 445.19M | 205.85M | 303.99M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 55.68M | -122.81M | -122.81M | 64.19M | -212.41M | -221.49M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -583.67M | -207.91M | -207.91M | -507.76M | 5.55M | -100.38M |
NGL Energy Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
9.85
Price Trends
10.78
Positive
9.49
Positive
7.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Positive
59.92
Neutral
61.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.94, below the 50-day MA of 10.78, and above the 200-day MA of 7.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGL.
NGL Energy Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | $1.49B | 310.08 | 17.70% | ― | -38.82% | 92.56% | |
60 Neutral | $2.21B | -27.23 | -2.48% | 4.14% | -36.47% | -75.37% | |
58 Neutral | $112.09M | -7.76 | ― | 0.77% | -0.58% | -587.83% | |
56 Neutral | $1.60B | 22.30 | 11.44% | 6.93% | 4.10% | -36.72% | |
47 Neutral | $554.39M | -8.83 | -1.23% | ― | 17.09% | 72.64% |
* Energy Sector Average
NGL
NGL Energy Partners
12.00
7.36
158.62%
GEL
Genesis Energy
18.06
5.40
42.68%
GLP
Global Partners
46.98
-6.67
-12.44%
MMLP
Martin Midstream
2.87
-0.85
-22.91%
SMC
Summit Midstream
29.51
-13.10
-30.74%
PBT
Permian Basin
19.79
10.02
102.50%
NGL Energy Partners Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
NGL Energy Partners Unitholders Approve Incentive Plan, Auditor
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, NGL Energy Partners held a special meeting of unitholders of record as of December 18, 2025, to vote on a new long-term incentive plan, the appointment of its independent auditor for fiscal 2026, and a potential adjournment option. Unitholders approved the 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan and ratified Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026, reinforcing the partnership’s executive and employee compensation framework and confirming continuity in its external financial oversight, while the adjournment proposal was deemed unnecessary and was not acted upon.
The most recent analyst rating on (NGL) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NGL Energy Partners stock, see the NGL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.