NGL Energy Partners (NGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 336.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.20
• Revenue Growth: -38.82%
• EPS Growth: 92.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 607
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 124,269,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 556,681
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 336,178
• PEG Ratio: -0.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.03
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(26.90% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mid-level financial performance (strong cash generation but notable revenue decline and leverage risk) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with raised EBITDA guidance and cost savings. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technicals and limited valuation support due to a negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

Sustained 61.7% free cash flow growth demonstrates durable internal funding ability, enabling the company to fund growth CapEx, pay down debt, and absorb cyclical revenue pressure. Strong cash conversion provides a buffer against volatility and supports long-term strategic choices.

Water Solutions Segment

Robust Water Solutions performance and record volumes point to a structural growth engine tied to produced-water handling. High-margin disposal and treatment services, backed by pipeline and permitted injection capacity, create sticky, recurring cash flows and a durable competitive position.

Capital Structure Optimization

Repricing Term Loan B and repurchasing preferred units materially lower recurring financing and distribution expenses, improving operating cash flow retention. These structural cost savings enhance financial flexibility and lower ongoing interest burden, aiding medium-term deleveraging.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A meaningful TTM revenue decline reduces scale and strains fixed-cost absorption, pressuring net margins and free cash flow if trends persist. Sustained top-line weakness would challenge EBITDA growth assumptions and force trade-offs in pricing, contract wins, or investment pace.

Elevated Leverage

High leverage (~0.99 D/E) limits strategic flexibility and increases exposure to interest-rate or cash-flow shocks. While repricing eases costs, elevated indebtedness constrains the ability to fund large CapEx or pursue M&A without adding refinancing risk or dilutive capital in adverse cycles.

Higher Growth CapEx Requirement

An unexpected $100M incremental growth CapEx raises near-term funding needs and delays returns from new volumes. Large upfront investment for midstream assets can strain liquidity, increase leverage or external financing needs, and extend the timeline to realize incremental free cash flow.

NGL Energy Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NGL Energy Partners LP engages in the transportation, storage, blending, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, refined products / renewables, and water solutions. The company operates in three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics. The Water Solutions segment transports, treats, recycles, and disposes produced and flowback water generated from oil and natural gas production; aggregates and sells recovered crude oil; disposes solids, such as tank bottoms, and drilling fluid and muds, as well as performs truck and frac tank washouts; and sells produced water for reuse and recycle, and brackish non-potable water. The Crude Oil Logistics segment purchases crude oil from producers and marketers, and transports it to refineries for resale at pipeline injection stations, storage terminals, barge loading facilities, rail facilities, refineries, and other trade hubs; and provides storage, terminaling, and transportation services through pipelines. The Liquids Logistics segment supplies natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, and biodiesel to commercial, retail, and industrial customers in the United States and Canada through its 24 terminals, third-party storage and terminal facilities, and nine common carrier pipelines, as well as through fleet of leased railcars. This segment is also involved in the marine export of butane through its facility located in Chesapeake, Virginia. NGL Energy Holdings LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

NGL Energy Partners generates revenue through multiple key streams, including transportation fees for hauling crude oil, charges for terminal storage, and fees associated with water disposal services. The company operates a fleet of trucks and pipelines that facilitate the efficient movement of crude oil and produced water, generating significant revenue from transportation contracts. Additionally, NGL earns income from its water solutions business, which involves the management and disposal of produced water generated during oil extraction. Strategic partnerships with oil and gas producers enhance NGL's revenue potential by securing long-term contracts and expanding its service capabilities, while its focus on operational efficiency helps to maintain competitive pricing and profitability.

NGL Energy Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong free cash flow growth (+61.7%) and reasonable EBITDA margin (13.5%) support the business, but revenue declined 15.1% and leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~0.99), creating balance-sheet risk.

Income Statement

NGL Energy Partners shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of approximately 39.9%, which is strong, but the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.3%. The company has experienced a significant revenue decline of 15.1% in the TTM period, which is a concern. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are reasonable at 7.2% and 13.5%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability margins are decent, the declining revenue trend poses a risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.99 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage, though it has improved from previous periods. The return on equity is strong at 17.3%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is low, reflecting a higher reliance on debt financing. The company's financial stability is moderate, with potential risks due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trajectory with a 61.7% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.64, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.55, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. These metrics suggest strong cash flow management, providing a buffer against revenue declines.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.03B	3.47B	4.15B	5.68B	7.95B	5.23B
Gross Profit	748.42M	707.38M	701.76M	716.50M	519.88M	733.20M
EBITDA	639.70M	594.99M	380.41M	558.06M	377.76M	408.73M
Net Income	125.44M	39.37M	-143.75M	51.39M	-184.76M	-639.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.30B	4.61B	5.02B	5.46B	6.07B	5.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.66M	13.55M	38.91M	5.43M	3.82M	4.83M
Total Debt	3.03B	3.08B	2.97B	2.95B	3.47B	3.47B
Total Liabilities	3.69B	3.91B	4.02B	4.14B	4.80B	4.45B
Stockholders Equity	644.32M	676.70M	1.03B	1.35B	1.30B	1.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	340.77M	51.65M	51.65M	297.42M	63.49M	117.19M
Operating Cash Flow	497.02M	297.46M	297.46M	445.19M	205.85M	303.99M
Investing Cash Flow	120.21M	-122.81M	-122.81M	64.19M	-212.41M	-221.49M
Financing Cash Flow	-616.32M	-207.91M	-207.91M	-507.76M	5.55M	-100.38M

NGL Energy Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.19, below the 50-day MA of 9.93, and above the 200-day MA of 6.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.69 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGL.

NGL Energy Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NGL	64 Neutral	$1.46B	-67.65	12.40%	―	-38.82%	92.56%
GLP	62 Neutral	$1.61B	22.58	11.24%	6.93%	4.10%	-36.72%
GEL	49 Neutral	$2.03B	-12.92	-11.88%	4.14%	-36.47%	-75.37%
MMLP	47 Neutral	$109.35M	-5.37	―	0.77%	-0.58%	-587.83%
SMC	47 Neutral	$539.36M	-8.59	-1.23%	―	17.09%	72.64%