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NGL Energy Partners
(NYSE:NGL)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(2.83% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is primarily held back by financial performance concerns: persistent net losses and balance-sheet volatility across periods despite improving revenue and solid operating/free cash flow. The latest earnings call adds support via raised EBITDA guidance and strong Water Solutions execution, while technicals are moderately positive with neutral momentum indicators. Valuation remains a constraint due to the negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Water Solutions scale
NGL’s Water Solutions now drives the lion’s share of cash generation via scale assets, high per-barrel economics, and long-term service contracts. Large, repeatable disposal volumes and margin capture create durable fee-like cash flows that support reinvestment and deleveraging over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Earnings concentration
Heavy reliance on one segment concentrates cash flow risk: basin production declines, regulatory limits, or competitive pressure in produced-water services could materially affect consolidated results, reducing diversification benefits and increasing sensitivity to sector-specific shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Water Solutions scale
NGL’s Water Solutions now drives the lion’s share of cash generation via scale assets, high per-barrel economics, and long-term service contracts. Large, repeatable disposal volumes and margin capture create durable fee-like cash flows that support reinvestment and deleveraging over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
NGL Energy Partners (NGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)209.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth-40.00%
EPS Growth-449.42%
CountryUS
Employees449
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.05
Shares Outstanding124,814,285
10 Day Avg. Volume121,859
30 Day Avg. Volume209,659
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)60.45
Price to Sales (P/S)0.50
P/FCF Ratio10.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.71B
NGL Energy Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NGL Energy Partners LP is engaged in the midstream energy sector, focusing on the movement, storage, blending, and marketing of critical energy commodities such as crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), refined petroleum products, and renewable fu...
How the Company Makes Money
NGL makes money primarily by charging fees and earning margins for logistics, handling, and marketing services across its operating segments. (1) Water Solutions: NGL provides produced-water management services for upstream producers, earning reve...
NGL Energy Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum driven by Water Solutions: record produced water volumes, sizable increases in Water Solutions EBITDA, expanded contractual commitments, permitted capacity growth, and a raised fiscal 2027 EBITDA guidance. Management also outlined clear capital allocation and leverage plans (redeeming ~50% of Class D preferreds, line of sight to ~4x leverage) and highlighted future growth avenues (pipeline builds, beneficial reuse, mineral extraction). Key risks include high earnings concentration in Water Solutions, timing mismatch between front-loaded growth capex and when incremental EBITDA is recognized (mostly fiscal 2028), remaining Class D preferred obligations and potential puts in 2028, regulatory delays (TPDES permit history), and mixed performance in non-water segments. Overall, positive operational execution and guidance upgrades outweigh the near-term timing, concentration, and capital-structure risks.Positive Updates
Record Produced Water Volumes
Physically disposed approximately 3.32 million barrels per day (bpd) in 1Q FY27 versus 2.77 million bpd in 1Q FY26, a 19.6% increase; total volumes paid to dispose were ~3.43 million bpd versus 3.06 million bpd, up ~12% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Concentration Risk in Water Solutions
Water Solutions accounted for 91% of quarterly EBITDA and over 85% of trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, indicating high earnings concentration and exposure to produced-water market dynamics.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Produced Water Volumes
Physically disposed approximately 3.32 million barrels per day (bpd) in 1Q FY27 versus 2.77 million bpd in 1Q FY26, a 19.6% increase; total volumes paid to dispose were ~3.43 million bpd versus 3.06 million bpd, up ~12% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million to a new range of $725–$735 million, citing a strong Q1 with consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $186.2 million (vs. $143.9M Y/Y) driven by Water Solutions (Q1 Water Solutions adjusted EBITDA $179.9M vs. $142.9M, 91% of partnership EBITDA) and record physical disposal volumes of ~3.32 million barrels per day (up 19.6% YoY; total volumes paid to dispose ~3.43M bpd, up ~12%). They reported ~1.77M bpd of produced water volume commitments (~53% of total volumes), added >200k bpd of commitments this quarter and expect to bring ~300k bpd more online this fiscal year for a total ~500k bpd of contracted capacity, increased permitted injection capacity ~200k bpd to 5.62M bpd in the Delaware, plan growth CapEx >$200M (majority in H1), expect most incremental EBITDA to be realized in fiscal 2028, see deleveraging continuing with line of sight to ~4x net debt leverage (ex‑preferreds), intend to redeem ~50% of Class D preferreds this year, and view potential reinstatement of the common distribution if about half the Class Ds are eliminated.NGL Energy Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.52B | 3.16B | 3.47B | 4.15B | 5.68B | 7.95B |
| Gross Profit | 880.03M | 747.21M | 707.38M | 701.76M | 716.50M | 519.88M |
| EBITDA | 697.98M | 336.85M | 594.99M | 380.41M | 558.06M | 377.76M |
| Net Income | -170.37M | -180.18M | 39.37M | -143.75M | 51.39M | -184.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.18B | 4.18B | 4.61B | 5.02B | 5.46B | 6.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.07M | 8.51M | 13.55M | 38.91M | 5.43M | 3.82M |
| Total Debt | 129.13M | 3.36B | 3.08B | 2.97B | 2.95B | 3.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 726.15M | 4.18B | 3.91B | 4.02B | 4.14B | 4.80B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.45B | 25.91M | 676.70M | 1.03B | 1.35B | 1.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 209.56M | 144.68M | 51.65M | 51.65M | 297.42M | 63.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 524.38M | 365.95M | 297.46M | 297.46M | 445.19M | 205.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -294.66M | -12.91M | -122.81M | -122.81M | 64.19M | -212.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -233.34M | -350.19M | -207.91M | -207.91M | -507.76M | 5.55M |
NGL Energy Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
15.56
Price Trends
15.88
Positive
15.17
Positive
12.60
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Negative
64.15
Neutral
68.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.72, below the 50-day MA of 15.88, and above the 200-day MA of 12.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGL.
NGL Energy Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $3.21B | 19.09 | -935.80% | 7.85% | 13.04% | 6.21% | |
67 Neutral | $17.33B | 18.47 | 11.77% | 6.48% | -9.94% | 43.70% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $1.87B | -84.73 | 16.91% | 4.59% | -35.30% | 88.99% | |
55 Neutral | $2.05B | -4.70 | -14.35% | ― | -40.00% | -449.42% | |
53 Neutral | $626.84M | -16.39 | -1.23% | ― | 28.21% | 92.42% | |
45 Neutral | $95.46M | -8.64 | 12.49% | 0.82% | 4.01% | 1.75% |
* Energy Sector Average
NGL
NGL Energy Partners
17.35
13.35
333.75%
GEL
Genesis Energy
15.18
-1.18
-7.18%
MMLP
Martin Midstream
2.55
-0.52
-16.99%
PAA
Plains All American
23.52
7.01
42.49%
SMC
Summit Midstream
30.71
5.87
23.63%
DKL
Delek Logistics
58.90
18.64
46.30%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.