NGL Energy Partners (NGL)
NYSE:NGL
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NGL Energy Partners
(NYSE:NGL)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(62.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile fundamentals and balance-sheet stress (including negative equity), despite steady operating/free cash flow. Offsetting this, management delivered constructive FY27 EBITDA growth guidance with strong Water Solutions performance and meaningful refinancing progress, while technicals are moderately positive and valuation appears mid-range.
Positive Factors
Water Solutions growth
Water Solutions now drives the partnership’s core cash generation with record volumes (~3.0m bpd Q4) and low reported operating cost ($0.22/barrel). High contractualization and acreage dedications increase revenue visibility and support durable fee-like cash flows over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Stressed balance sheet & negative equity
Negative shareholders’ equity and historically elevated leverage (debt-to-equity well above 2x, >4x in 2025) materially constrain financial flexibility. Even with refinancing progress, negative equity raises covenant, refinancing and investor-return risks that can hinder long-term strategic moves.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Water Solutions growth
Water Solutions now drives the partnership’s core cash generation with record volumes (~3.0m bpd Q4) and low reported operating cost ($0.22/barrel). High contractualization and acreage dedications increase revenue visibility and support durable fee-like cash flows over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
NGL Energy Partners (NGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.00B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)349.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth-40.00%
EPS Growth-449.42%
CountryUS
Employees607
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.49
Shares Outstanding124,814,285
10 Day Avg. Volume342,706
30 Day Avg. Volume349,275
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)60.45
Price to Sales (P/S)0.50
P/FCF Ratio10.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.22
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.71B
NGL Energy Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NGL Energy Partners LP is engaged in the midstream energy sector, focusing on the movement, storage, blending, and marketing of critical energy commodities such as crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), refined petroleum products, and renewable fu...
How the Company Makes Money
NGL makes money primarily by charging fees and earning margins for logistics, handling, and marketing services across its operating segments. (1) Water Solutions: NGL provides produced-water management services for upstream producers, earning reve...
NGL Energy Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational momentum driven by record Water Solutions performance, meaningful volume growth (Q4 +10% and full-year +11%), successful refinancing actions (including a $950M refinancing and preferred redemptions), executed buybacks, and a clear growth project pipeline (LEX II expansion). Management also provided constructive 2027 guidance (~10% EBITDA growth) and conservative capex guidance. Key risks noted include a recent goodwill impairment, remaining high-cost preferred exposure that requires further paydown, concentration of growth in Water Solutions, and near-term absorption of incremental pipeline costs. Overall, the positive operational and balance-sheet developments and upward guidance materially outweigh the remaining capital-structure and concentration challenges.Positive Updates
Record Annual Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Q4
Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for fiscal 2026 was approximately $660 million (at the high end of guidance). Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was approximately $176 million. Excluding the goodwill impairment charge, income from continuing operations was approximately $70 million for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Goodwill Impairment Impact
A goodwill impairment charge reduced reported results for the quarter; excluding that charge, income from continuing operations was approximately $70 million, indicating the impairment had a material impact on GAAP results.
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Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Adjusted EBITDA and Strong Q4
Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for fiscal 2026 was approximately $660 million (at the high end of guidance). Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was approximately $176 million. Excluding the goodwill impairment charge, income from continuing operations was approximately $70 million for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2027 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $715–$725 million (about 10% year‑over‑year growth at the high end), driven primarily by Water Solutions, and noted the guidance excludes any new contracts or benefits from current crude prices; they plan roughly $200 million of growth capital (the bulk for the LEX II expansion) and about $45 million of maintenance capital, with most LEX II spend occurring in the first few quarters. The LEX II expansion increases capacity by 165,000 bpd to ~560,000 bpd (expandable to 650,000 bpd) and is underwritten by long‑term volume commitments; Water Solutions finished FY‑26 with adjusted EBITDA of ~ $603 million (Q4 ~ $153 million), produced water of ~3.0 million bpd in Q4 (paid volumes ~3.1 million bpd) and full‑year disposal averaging ~2.9 million bpd (+11% YoY), operating costs of $0.22/barrel in the quarter, committed disposal volumes rising from 45% to 53%, and >90% of volumes contractual or acreage‑dedicated.NGL Energy Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.16B | 3.47B | 4.15B | 5.68B | 7.95B |
| Gross Profit | 747.21M | 707.38M | 701.76M | 716.50M | 519.88M |
| EBITDA | 336.85M | 594.99M | 380.41M | 558.06M | 377.76M |
| Net Income | -180.18M | 39.37M | -143.75M | 51.39M | -184.76M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.18B | 4.61B | 5.02B | 5.46B | 6.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.51M | 13.55M | 38.91M | 5.43M | 3.82M |
| Total Debt | 3.36B | 3.08B | 2.97B | 2.95B | 3.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.18B | 3.91B | 4.02B | 4.14B | 4.80B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.91M | 676.70M | 1.03B | 1.35B | 1.30B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 144.68M | 51.65M | 51.65M | 297.42M | 63.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 365.95M | 297.46M | 297.46M | 445.19M | 205.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.91M | -122.81M | -122.81M | 64.19M | -212.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -350.19M | -207.91M | -207.91M | -507.76M | 5.55M |
NGL Energy Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
9.85
Price Trends
15.75
Positive
13.87
Positive
11.02
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
49.04
Neutral
45.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.40, below the 50-day MA of 15.75, and below the 200-day MA of 11.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGL.
NGL Energy Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.45B | 11.13 | 18.84% | 6.93% | 9.54% | 13.40% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $2.00B | -11.27 | -36.85% | ― | -40.00% | -449.42% | |
55 Neutral | $1.77B | 49.96 | 16.91% | 4.14% | -35.30% | 88.99% | |
53 Neutral | $586.16M | -45.67 | -1.23% | ― | 28.21% | 92.42% | |
43 Neutral | $93.51M | -4.62 | 24.10% | 0.77% | -1.12% | -115.63% |
* Energy Sector Average
NGL
NGL Energy Partners
15.99
11.38
246.85%
GEL
Genesis Energy
14.47
-1.53
-9.59%
GLP
Global Partners
42.58
-8.48
-16.60%
MMLP
Martin Midstream
2.39
-0.72
-23.08%
SMC
Summit Midstream
28.82
3.85
15.42%
PBT
Permian Basin
24.97
13.14
111.06%
NGL Energy Partners Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NGL Energy Partners Refinances Debt and Simplifies Capital Structure
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, NGL Energy Partners closed a new seven‑year $950 million senior secured term loan facility through its subsidiaries, increasing its secured debt financing from $687.8 million and using proceeds to repay its prior term loan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.