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NGL Energy Partners (NGL)
:NGL
US Market

NGL Energy Partners (NGL) AI Stock Analysis

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NGL Energy Partners

(NYSE:NGL)

Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
NGL Energy Partners exhibits significant financial and operational challenges, reflected in its overall stock score of 44. The company's high leverage and negative profitability present substantial risks, despite strong operational cash flows. Technical indicators suggest a bearish market sentiment, while valuation metrics highlight ongoing profitability issues. Although strategic initiatives like asset sales and debt reduction are positive, financial stability remains under pressure. The stock is currently undervalued but risky, given the financial and operational headwinds.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Free cash flow per unit exceeded expectations, coming in above forecasted levels.
Growth Prospects
Management anticipates growth in the Crude Oil Logistics segment driven by future production expansion in the DJ Basin.
Operational Performance
Butane blending margins and volumes were higher than management's targets, showing strong operational performance into the fiscal second quarter.
Negative Factors
Earnings Guidance
Management reduced FY25 EBITDA guidance by 3% due to lower expectations for the Liquids segment and declining crude oil prices.
Earnings Miss
Fiscal second quarter adjusted EBITDA was below both consensus and internal estimates.
Segment Performance
All three business segments delivered contributions below internal estimates, affecting overall performance.

NGL Energy Partners (NGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NGL Energy Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNGL Energy Partners LP engages in the transportation, storage, blending, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, refined products / renewables, and water solutions. The company operates in three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics. The Water Solutions segment transports, treats, recycles, and disposes produced and flowback water generated from oil and natural gas production; aggregates and sells recovered crude oil; disposes solids, such as tank bottoms, and drilling fluid and muds, as well as performs truck and frac tank washouts; and sells produced water for reuse and recycle, and brackish non-potable water. The Crude Oil Logistics segment purchases crude oil from producers and marketers, and transports it to refineries for resale at pipeline injection stations, storage terminals, barge loading facilities, rail facilities, refineries, and other trade hubs; and provides storage, terminaling, and transportation services through pipelines. The Liquids Logistics segment supplies natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, and biodiesel to commercial, retail, and industrial customers in the United States and Canada through its 24 terminals, third-party storage and terminal facilities, and nine common carrier pipelines, as well as through fleet of leased railcars. This segment is also involved in the marine export of butane through its facility located in Chesapeake, Virginia. NGL Energy Holdings LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyNGL Energy Partners generates revenue through a variety of streams primarily associated with its midstream energy services. The crude oil logistics segment earns money by transporting, storing, and marketing crude oil, leveraging infrastructure such as pipelines and terminals. The water solutions sector provides produced water services, including transportation, treatment, and disposal, which are critical for oil and gas producers, especially in hydraulic fracturing operations. The liquids logistics segment involves the procurement, transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and refined products. The company's earnings are also supported by significant partnerships and contracts with oil and gas producers, refineries, and other industry participants that ensure steady demand for its services.

NGL Energy Partners Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 31.68%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive outlook with strong performance in the Water Solutions segment, successful asset sales leading to debt reduction, and a strategic focus on core business areas. However, there are challenges in the Crude Oil and Liquids Logistics segments and potential headwinds from oil price uncertainty. Despite these lowlights, the highlights significantly outweigh the challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Non-Core Asset Sales
NGL Energy Partners LP closed on the sale of 18 natural gas liquids terminals and monetized several other non-core assets, generating proceeds at a double-digit multiple.
Water Solutions Segment Growth
Water Solutions adjusted EBITDA was $154.9 million in Q4, up from $123.4 million in the prior year, driven by higher disposal volumes and fees. Total disposal volumes increased by 11% year-over-year.
Reduction in Operating Costs
Operating cost per barrel in the Water Solutions segment decreased to 22¢ for fiscal 2025 from 24¢ in fiscal 2024.
Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Exceeds Guidance
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $622.9 million, surpassing the previous guidance of $620 million.
Debt Reduction and Capital Structure Improvement
Proceeds from asset sales helped pay off the entirety of the outstanding indebtedness on the ABL, and 20,000 units of Class D preferreds were purchased in the open market.
Strategic Focus on Core Water Solutions Business
NGL Energy Partners LP is concentrating on its Water Solutions segment, which will generate approximately 85% of adjusted EBITDA.
Negative Updates
Decline in Crude Oil Logistics EBITDA
Crude oil logistics adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million in Q4, down from $15.3 million in the prior year's Q4, primarily due to lower volumes on the Grand Mesa pipeline.
Liquids Logistics Segment Challenges
Liquids Logistics adjusted EBITDA decreased to $17.7 million in Q4 from $22.2 million in the prior year, with butane margins declining due to a weak gasoline blending season.
Potential Headwinds from Oil Price Uncertainty
The guidance for fiscal 2026 accounts for a $20 million decline in skim oil revenues due to lower crude prices, indicating potential challenges if oil prices remain volatile.
Company Guidance
During the NGL Energy Partners LP 2025 Q4 earnings call, CFO Brad Cooper outlined several key financial metrics and strategic moves. The quarter's consolidated adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was reported at $176.8 million, marking a 20% increase from the prior year's $147.9 million, primarily due to the Water Solutions segment's performance. For the full fiscal year, adjusted EBITDA reached $622.9 million, surpassing their guidance of $620 million. The Water Solutions segment alone reported an adjusted EBITDA of $154.9 million for the quarter, with a notable increase in water disposal volumes to 2.73 million barrels per day, an 11% rise compared to the previous year. The company's asset sales, including non-core assets and the wind-down of the biodiesel business, resulted in reduced volatility and seasonality of adjusted EBITDA, freeing up over $100 million of working capital. These proceeds were used to pay off outstanding indebtedness, including the purchase of 20,000 Class D preferred units. For fiscal 2026, NGL Energy Partners guides an EBITDA range of $615 million to $625 million, with capital expenditures totaling $105 million, $60 million of which will be allocated to growth projects within the Water Solutions segment.

NGL Energy Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NGL Energy Partners faces significant financial challenges, primarily due to high leverage and negative profitability. While operational cash flows remain strong, the company's high debt levels and negative equity indicate financial instability risks. Despite some improvements in EBITDA margins, the persistent negative net income requires strategic focus on cost management and revenue growth to enhance financial health.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
The income statement indicates challenges with profitability as evidenced by negative net income in recent years, though some improvements are seen in EBITDA margin. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline in the most recent TTM period after a previous increase. The overall gross profit margin has shown some resilience, but the net profit margin remains negative, indicating persistent operational difficulties.
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
The balance sheet reveals significant challenges, particularly with high leverage, as the debt-to-equity ratio is elevated due to considerable total debt and low equity. The return on equity is negative in recent periods, reflecting profitability issues. The equity ratio is low, indicating a high reliance on debt financing, which raises potential financial stability concerns.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows some positive trends, with operating cash flow consistently positive, indicating good cash generation from operations. However, free cash flow has experienced fluctuations, with recent periods showing growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high due to negative net income, suggesting operational cash generation strengths despite profitability issues.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.47B6.96B8.69B7.95B5.23B
Gross Profit707.38M723.25M771.26M519.88M415.97M
EBITDA594.99M395.99M602.10M377.51M-124.48M
Net Income39.37M-143.75M51.39M-184.10M-637.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.61B5.02B5.46B6.07B5.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.65M38.91M5.43M3.82M4.83M
Total Debt3.08B2.95B2.95B3.47B3.47B
Total Liabilities3.91B4.02B4.14B4.80B4.45B
Stockholders Equity0.001.03B767.43M-308.00K-266.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow51.65M223.87M297.42M63.49M117.19M
Operating Cash Flow297.46M376.16M445.19M205.85M303.99M
Investing Cash Flow-122.81M-83.76M64.19M-212.41M-221.49M
Financing Cash Flow-207.91M-258.93M-507.76M5.55M-100.38M

NGL Energy Partners Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4.24
Price Trends
50DMA
3.79
Positive
100DMA
3.97
Positive
200DMA
4.35
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.11
Positive
RSI
55.64
Neutral
STOCH
23.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.36, above the 50-day MA of 3.79, and below the 200-day MA of 4.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGL.

NGL Energy Partners Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TKTK
80
Outperform
$650.10M5.4218.55%25.84%-23.02%-38.08%
79
Outperform
$611.58M5.9420.43%5.47%1.25%-5.58%
68
Neutral
$15.42B10.076.34%5.16%4.06%-67.04%
65
Neutral
$553.75M10.345.17%3.90%19.15%15.37%
NBNBR
55
Neutral
$535.67M-44.00%-0.94%-19.18%
NGNGL
44
Neutral
$565.01M4.63%-19.76%-323.41%
SMSMC
41
Neutral
$458.63M5.86-28.13%-4.69%-418.50%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NGL
NGL Energy Partners
4.28
-0.42
-8.94%
NBR
Nabors Industries
34.12
-44.46
-56.58%
TK
Teekay
7.74
1.46
23.25%
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
27.77
-1.35
-4.64%
SMC
Summit Midstream
24.44
-11.54
-32.07%
BORR
Borr Drilling
2.05
-4.59
-69.13%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 22, 2025