Global Partners (GLP) AI Stock Analysis

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Global Partners

(NYSE:GLP)

Rating:58Neutral

Price Target:

$53.00

▲(3.88% Upside)

Global Partners' overall score is influenced by strong revenue growth and attractive dividend yield. However, challenges with profitability, high leverage, and lack of technical indicators weigh on the score. The earnings call provided mixed signals, with strategic positives offset by operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Infrastructure Flexibility

Global's infrastructure system is flexible and can source crude from numerous supply points, such as the US, Canada, Europe, and the Caribbean.

M&A Opportunities

Management believes the M&A market continues to be busy and will continue to look at deals that provide value to the partnership.

Stock Performance

GLP units have increased 23% compared to the AMZ's 10% increase.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

GLP posted 4Q24 results below expectations, driven by lower fuel margins in GDSO.

Potential Cost Increases

GLP is currently evaluating potential scenarios around Canadian tariffs, as increased costs are likely.

Valuation

GLP is considered fairly valued, leading to a downgrade from Buy to Hold.

Global Partners (GLP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.69B

Dividend Yield5.82%

Average Volume (3M)31.25K

Price to Earnings (P/E)19.1

Beta (1Y)0.61

Revenue Growth3.74%

EPS Growth-4.49%

CountryUS

Employees3,300

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength44

IndustryOil & Gas Midstream

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.55

Shares Outstanding33,995,564

10 Day Avg. Volume39,535

30 Day Avg. Volume31,249

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.28

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.10

Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.63

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$53.00

Price Target Upside3.88% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering2

Global Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal Partners LP engages in the purchasing, selling, gathering, blending, storing, and logistics of transporting gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, and propane to wholesalers, retailers, and commercial customers in the New England states, Mid-Atlantic region, and New York. The company is also involved in the transportation of petroleum products and renewable fuels through rail from the mid-continent region of the United States and Canada. Its Wholesale segment sells home heating oil, branded and unbranded gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, and propane to home heating oil retailers and wholesale distributors. It also aggregates crude oil through truck or pipeline in the mid-continent region of the United States and Canada, as well as transports it through rail and ships it through barge to refiners. The company's Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations segment sells branded and unbranded gasoline to gasoline station operators and sub-jobbers; operates gasoline stations and convenience stores; and provides car wash, lottery, and ATM services, as well as leases gasoline stations. Its Commercial segment sells and delivers unbranded gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, and bunker fuel to customers in the public sector, as well as to commercial and industrial end-users; and sells custom blended fuels. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a portfolio of 1,595 owned, leased, and supplied gasoline stations, which included 295 directly operated convenience stores; and owned, leased, or maintained storage facilities at 26 bulk terminals with a collective storage capacity of 11.9 million barrels. Global GP LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal Partners generates revenue primarily through the sale of petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and heating oil. Key revenue streams include wholesale fuel distribution to convenience stores, commercial customers, and government entities. Additionally, GLP earns income from its extensive network of retail service stations, where it sells fuel directly to consumers. The company also benefits from terminal operations, which involve the storage and transportation of fuel products. Significant partnerships with major oil companies and local distributors enhance GLP's market reach and logistics capabilities, contributing to its overall earnings. Furthermore, GLP is expanding its revenue model by investing in renewable energy projects and offering cleaner energy alternatives, positioning itself for growth in the evolving energy landscape.

Global Partners Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 30, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -1.43%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative aspects. While there was commendable year-over-year growth in key financial metrics and successful strategic acquisitions and refinancing, the quarter faced significant challenges including decreased quarterly results, adverse weather impacts, and site count reductions.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Positive Year-over-Year Growth

Global Partners reported a year-over-year increase in net income by 8%, adjusted EBITDA by 7%, and adjusted DCF by 9% for the first half of 2025.

Dividend Increase

The Board approved a quarterly cash distribution of $0.75 per unit, marking the 15th consecutive increase.

Terminal Acquisitions

Recent terminal acquisitions have expanded Global Partners' reach and strengthened their presence in key markets, providing a stronger platform for long-term value and future M&A opportunities.

Successful Debt Refinancing

Completed an upsized private offering of $450 million senior unsecured notes with a 7.125% interest rate and a 2033 maturity, strengthening the balance sheet and extending debt maturity profile.

Negative Updates

Decreased Quarterly Financial Metrics

Net income for Q2 2025 was $25.2 million versus $46.1 million in Q2 2024. EBITDA decreased from $118.8 million to $95.7 million and adjusted EBITDA from $121.1 million to $98.2 million.

Impact of Adverse Weather

Adverse weather conditions in the Northeast led to a record 13 weekends of consecutive rain, negatively impacting retail and fuel sales.

Decreased Site Count

The GDSO product margin decreased by $13.6 million, attributed to a lower site count year-over-year and adverse weather conditions.

Wholesale Segment Challenges

Wholesale segment product margin decreased due to less favorable market conditions, with gasoline and gasoline blendstocks down $11.6 million.

Company Guidance

During the Global Partners Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, robust financial performance was highlighted, with net income increasing by 8%, adjusted EBITDA by 7%, and adjusted distributable cash flow (DCF) by 9% compared to the previous year. The Board approved a quarterly cash distribution of $0.75 per unit, marking the 15th consecutive increase. Second quarter results showed a reduction in net income to $25.2 million from $46.1 million in Q2 2024, with adjusted EBITDA decreasing to $98.2 million from $121.1 million. Segment-specific results included a decrease in GDSO product margin by $13.6 million to $207.9 million, driven by adverse weather and a lower site count. The Wholesale segment's product margin was $91.7 million, while the Commercial segment saw a slight decrease to $6.1 million. Operating expenses increased by $5.7 million due to terminal operations, and capital expenditures for the quarter were $15 million. Global Partners maintained a leverage ratio of 3.5x as of June 30, 2025, following a $450 million senior unsecured notes offering.

Global Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Global Partners exhibits a mixed financial landscape. While there is robust revenue growth, profitability margins and leverage pose potential risks. The company's ability to manage debt and generate consistent free cash flow will be crucial for sustaining financial health. Strategic focus on reducing debt levels and improving profit margins could enhance overall financial stability.

Income Statement

Positive

Global Partners shows a mixed performance in their income statement. Gross profit margin and EBIT margin have experienced fluctuations over the years, with the TTM figures indicating some recovery. However, net profit margin has decreased significantly compared to previous years. Revenue growth from the previous year to TTM is strong at 26.71%, indicating a positive trajectory in revenue generation.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals a stable yet concerning position with a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage risk. The equity ratio is relatively low, showing limited equity relative to total assets. Return on equity has been declining, suggesting challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis indicates volatility with free cash flow showing significant fluctuations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting effective cash generation from operations relative to net income. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, which could pose challenges for future investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.96B	17.16B	16.49B	18.88B	13.25B	8.32B
Gross Profit	941.84M	1.06B	513.83M	1.10B	719.26M	721.14M
EBITDA	401.26M	389.39M	356.36M	565.08M	244.46M	285.24M
Net Income	109.06M	107.69M	152.51M	362.21M	60.80M	102.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.78B	3.79B	3.45B	3.16B	2.83B	2.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.10M	8.21M	19.64M	4.04M	10.85M	9.71M
Total Debt	2.01B	2.03B	1.54B	1.43B	1.57B	1.49B
Total Liabilities	3.10B	3.07B	2.65B	2.37B	2.30B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	683.00M	713.52M	798.83M	788.44M	-1.90M	1.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	256.02M	-286.78M	110.42M	373.20M	-51.50M	236.19M
Operating Cash Flow	360.14M	31.60M	512.44M	480.00M	50.22M	312.53M
Investing Cash Flow	-89.13M	-276.87M	-492.38M	-236.19M	-115.05M	-69.73M
Financing Cash Flow	-263.57M	233.84M	-4.46M	-250.61M	65.97M	-245.13M

Global Partners Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price51.02

Price Trends

50DMA

51.63

Negative

100DMA

50.59

Positive

200DMA

50.48

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.29

Negative

RSI

51.66

Neutral

STOCH

45.81

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.70, below the 50-day MA of 51.63, and above the 200-day MA of 50.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GLP.

Global Partners Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (56)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DKL	73 Outperform	$2.28B	14.43	542.39%	10.12%	-12.08%	1.44%
NGL	64 Neutral	$621.34M	―	8.32%	―	-33.19%	81.02%
GLP	58 Neutral	$1.69B	19.14	13.89%	5.82%	3.74%	-4.49%
Sector *	56 Neutral	C$4.17B	2.02	16.25%	5.63%	10.63%	-51.09%
GEL	49 Neutral	$2.04B	―	-14.68%	3.92%	-28.72%	-1173.53%
MMLP	49 Neutral	$134.35M	33.55	-6.93%	0.58%	-1.06%	-340.61%
SMC	48 Neutral	$380.19M	5.86	-25.85%	―	2.91%	-432.03%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GLP

Global Partners

51.02

11.53

29.20%

GEL

Genesis Energy

16.82

3.67

27.91%

MMLP

Martin Midstream

3.48

-0.08

-2.25%

NGL

NGL Energy Partners

4.93

0.75

17.94%

SMC

Summit Midstream

20.09

-14.72

-42.29%

DKL

Delek Logistics

43.76

8.72

24.89%

Global Partners Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Global Partners Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Neutral

Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Global Partners LP reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showing a decline in net income and adjusted EBITDA compared to the same period in 2024. Despite the decrease, the company highlighted strategic acquisitions and a diversified asset base as key factors in maintaining growth in earnings and cash flow for the first half of 2025. The company completed an upsized private offering of $450 million of senior unsecured notes and announced a cash distribution to unitholders, indicating a focus on strengthening its financial position and delivering long-term value.