Global Partners (GLP) AI Stock Analysis

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Global Partners

(NYSE:GLP)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:

$53.00

▲(6.02% Upside)

Global Partners' overall score reflects strong revenue growth and an attractive dividend yield. However, challenges with profitability, high leverage, and bearish technical indicators weigh on the score. The balanced sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting both strategic successes and operational challenges, also influences the overall assessment.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates effective market strategies and expanding customer base, which supports long-term business sustainability.

Expansion through Terminal Acquisitions

Acquiring terminals strengthens market presence and logistics capabilities, providing a platform for future growth and competitive advantage.

Successful Debt Refinancing

Refinancing enhances financial flexibility and extends debt maturity, reducing near-term financial risk and supporting strategic investments.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can strain financial stability, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and increasing financial risk.

Decline in Quarterly Financial Performance

A decline in quarterly performance may indicate operational challenges, affecting investor confidence and potentially impacting future profitability.

Increased Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses can pressure margins and reduce net income, hindering the company's ability to reinvest in growth initiatives.

Global Partners (GLP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.70B

Dividend Yield5.93%

Average Volume (3M)79.83K

Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2

Beta (1Y)0.62

Revenue Growth3.74%

EPS Growth-4.49%

CountryUS

Employees3,300

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Midstream

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.55

Shares Outstanding33,995,564

10 Day Avg. Volume86,910

30 Day Avg. Volume79,833

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.27

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.10

Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.63

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$53.00

Price Target Upside6.02% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Global Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal Partners LP engages in the purchasing, selling, gathering, blending, storing, and logistics of transporting gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, and propane to wholesalers, retailers, and commercial customers in the New England states, Mid-Atlantic region, and New York. The company is also involved in the transportation of petroleum products and renewable fuels through rail from the mid-continent region of the United States and Canada. Its Wholesale segment sells home heating oil, branded and unbranded gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, and propane to home heating oil retailers and wholesale distributors. It also aggregates crude oil through truck or pipeline in the mid-continent region of the United States and Canada, as well as transports it through rail and ships it through barge to refiners. The company's Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations segment sells branded and unbranded gasoline to gasoline station operators and sub-jobbers; operates gasoline stations and convenience stores; and provides car wash, lottery, and ATM services, as well as leases gasoline stations. Its Commercial segment sells and delivers unbranded gasoline, home heating oil, diesel, kerosene, residual oil, and bunker fuel to customers in the public sector, as well as to commercial and industrial end-users; and sells custom blended fuels. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a portfolio of 1,595 owned, leased, and supplied gasoline stations, which included 295 directly operated convenience stores; and owned, leased, or maintained storage facilities at 26 bulk terminals with a collective storage capacity of 11.9 million barrels. Global GP LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal Partners generates revenue primarily through the sale of petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and heating oil. Key revenue streams include wholesale fuel distribution to convenience stores, commercial customers, and government entities. Additionally, GLP earns income from its extensive network of retail service stations, where it sells fuel directly to consumers. The company also benefits from terminal operations, which involve the storage and transportation of fuel products. Significant partnerships with major oil companies and local distributors enhance GLP's market reach and logistics capabilities, contributing to its overall earnings. Furthermore, GLP is expanding its revenue model by investing in renewable energy projects and offering cleaner energy alternatives, positioning itself for growth in the evolving energy landscape.

Global Partners Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 30, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a balanced view with notable achievements such as strong year-over-year earnings growth, strategic terminal acquisitions, and successful debt refinancing. However, these were tempered by significant challenges including a decline in quarterly financial performance, adverse weather impacts, and decreased site count. The financial results were also affected by increased expenses and market challenges in the Wholesale segment.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Year-over-Year Earnings Growth

Net income increased 8%, adjusted EBITDA increased 7%, and adjusted DCF increased 9% for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Expansion through Terminal Acquisitions

Recent terminal acquisitions have expanded Global Partners' reach and strengthened their presence in key markets, setting up a stronger platform for long-term value and future M&A opportunities.

Increased Cash Distribution

The Board approved a quarterly cash distribution of $0.75 per unit, marking the 15th consecutive increase.

Successful Debt Refinancing

Completed an upsized private offering of $450 million senior unsecured notes with a 7.125% interest rate and a 2033 maturity, enhancing financial flexibility and extending debt maturity.

Negative Updates

Decline in Quarterly Financial Performance

Net income for Q2 2025 was $25.2 million compared to $46.1 million in Q2 2024. EBITDA was $95.7 million compared to $118.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $98.2 million versus $121.1 million.

Weather Impact on Retail Operations

Adverse weather conditions led to a decrease in product margin for GDSO and Station Operations. The Northeast experienced 13 consecutive weekends of rain, impacting site volumes and sales.

Decrease in Site Count

A reduction of 42 sites year-over-year as part of strategic divestment activities, affecting overall sales and operations.

Market Challenges in Wholesale Segment

Wholesale segment experienced a decline in product margin from gasoline and gasoline blendstocks by $11.6 million due to less favorable market conditions.

Increased Operating and SG&A Expenses

Operating expenses increased by $5.7 million to $135.7 million, and SG&A expenses increased by $2.4 million to $74.7 million in Q2 2025.

Company Guidance

During the Global Partners Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company reported strong year-over-year performance, with net income increasing by 8%, adjusted EBITDA by 7%, and adjusted distributable cash flow (DCF) by 9% for the first half of 2025. The Board approved a quarterly cash distribution of $0.75 per unit, marking the 15th consecutive increase. The company noted a decrease in net income to $25.2 million, EBITDA to $95.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA to $98.2 million for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024, partly due to a $2.8 million loss on early debt extinguishment. The trailing 12-month distribution coverage stood at 1.81x. The GDSO product margin decreased by $13.6 million to $207.9 million, affected by weather and site count reductions. CapEx for Q2 was $15 million, with full-year expectations of $60-$70 million for maintenance and $65-$75 million for expansion. The company completed an offering of $450 million in senior notes.

Global Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Global Partners exhibits a mixed financial landscape. While there is robust revenue growth, profitability margins and leverage pose potential risks. The company's ability to manage debt and generate consistent free cash flow will be crucial for sustaining financial health. Strategic focus on reducing debt levels and improving profit margins could enhance overall financial stability.

Income Statement

Positive

Global Partners shows a mixed performance in their income statement. Gross profit margin and EBIT margin have experienced fluctuations over the years, with the TTM figures indicating some recovery. However, net profit margin has decreased significantly compared to previous years. Revenue growth from the previous year to TTM is strong at 26.71%, indicating a positive trajectory in revenue generation.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals a stable yet concerning position with a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage risk. The equity ratio is relatively low, showing limited equity relative to total assets. Return on equity has been declining, suggesting challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis indicates volatility with free cash flow showing significant fluctuations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting effective cash generation from operations relative to net income. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, which could pose challenges for future investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.96B	17.16B	16.49B	18.88B	13.25B	8.32B
Gross Profit	941.84M	1.06B	513.83M	1.10B	719.26M	721.14M
EBITDA	401.26M	389.39M	356.36M	565.08M	244.46M	285.24M
Net Income	109.06M	107.69M	152.51M	362.21M	60.80M	102.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.78B	3.79B	3.45B	3.16B	2.83B	2.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.10M	8.21M	19.64M	4.04M	10.85M	9.71M
Total Debt	2.01B	2.03B	1.54B	1.43B	1.57B	1.49B
Total Liabilities	3.10B	3.07B	2.65B	2.37B	2.30B	2.05B
Stockholders Equity	683.00M	713.52M	798.83M	788.44M	-1.90M	1.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	256.02M	-286.78M	110.42M	373.20M	-51.50M	236.19M
Operating Cash Flow	360.14M	31.60M	512.44M	480.00M	50.22M	312.53M
Investing Cash Flow	-89.13M	-276.87M	-492.38M	-236.19M	-115.05M	-69.73M
Financing Cash Flow	-263.57M	233.84M	-4.46M	-250.61M	65.97M	-245.13M

Global Partners Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price49.99

Price Trends

50DMA

51.00

Negative

100DMA

51.08

Negative

200DMA

50.89

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.39

Positive

RSI

44.07

Neutral

STOCH

42.79

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.26, below the 50-day MA of 51.00, and below the 200-day MA of 50.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GLP.

Global Partners Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INSW	77 Outperform	2.33B	9.82	12.57%	6.93%	-22.01%	-54.34%
TNK	76 Outperform	1.81B	6.50	22.98%	3.82%	-21.71%	-37.58%
DHT	75 Outperform	1.98B	10.41	17.48%	6.34%	-8.89%	21.28%
DKL	73 Outperform	2.43B	15.41	401.61%	9.74%	-12.08%	1.44%
GLP	60 Neutral	$1.70B	19.19	13.89%	5.93%	3.74%	-4.49%
GEL	45 Neutral	2.03B	-10.66	-191.96%	3.97%	-28.72%	-1173.53%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GLP

Global Partners

49.99

6.09

13.87%

DHT

DHT Holdings

12.31

2.04

19.86%

GEL

Genesis Energy

16.61

3.89

30.58%

TNK

Teekay Tankers

52.37

-3.32

-5.96%

DKL

Delek Logistics

45.50

6.24

15.89%

INSW

International Seaways

47.22

>-0.01

-0.02%

Global Partners Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing

Global Partners Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Neutral

Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Global Partners LP reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showing a decline in net income and adjusted EBITDA compared to the same period in 2024. Despite the decrease, the company highlighted strategic acquisitions and a diversified asset base as key factors in maintaining growth in earnings and cash flow for the first half of 2025. The company completed an upsized private offering of $450 million of senior unsecured notes and announced a cash distribution to unitholders, indicating a focus on strengthening its financial position and delivering long-term value.