NGL Energy Partners (NGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.44B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 271.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.23
• Revenue Growth: -38.82%
• EPS Growth: 92.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 607
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 123,814,285
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 207,119
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 271,156
• PEG Ratio: -0.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.18
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.43
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.05B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(26.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is anchored by a mixed financial profile: strong recent earnings/cash flow improvements are offset by high leverage and a shrinking revenue base. Positive guidance and operational momentum in Water Solutions lift the outlook, while valuation is supportive due to the low P/E. Technicals add a modest positive bias from the longer-term uptrend, but near-term signals remain mixed.

Positive Factors

Water Solutions Growth

Rapid, sustained growth in Water Solutions volumes and EBITDA reflects durable, contract-backed demand for produced-water handling. Higher paid disposal volumes and record daily throughput improve asset utilization, support recurring fee income, and strengthen cash flow visibility over the next several quarters.

Healthy Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides the partnership with the ability to service debt, fund growth projects, and execute capital allocation (preferred redemptions and unit repurchases). Strong cash generation reduces reliance on external markets and supports medium‑term financial flexibility.

Refinancing & Liquidity Improvement

Extending maturities with a seven‑year term loan and trimming the ABL commitment materially reduces near‑term refinancing risk and lowers funding costs tied to leverage. This structural capital‑structure change enhances liquidity and gives management runway to deleverage and invest over the next 2–6 months.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Elevated leverage constrains strategic flexibility and increases vulnerability to commodity cycles and volume shocks. High debt levels raise covenant and refinancing sensitivity, can limit discretionary investment, and mean a larger share of cash flow must service debt rather than fund growth or distributions.

Shrinking Revenue Base

A materially shrinking top line signals potential erosion of core throughput or marketing volumes, which threatens the durability of improved margins and EBITDA. If revenue declines persist, free cash flow and the ability to cover fixed costs and service debt could deteriorate despite recent margin gains.

Project & Regulatory Uncertainty

Ambitious treatment and nuclear-linked initiatives are exploratory and require permitting, customer contracts, and significant regulatory steps. Uncertain timelines and unquantified capex mean anticipated long‑term benefits may be delayed or scaled down, creating execution and regulatory risk to the growth thesis.

NGL Energy Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NGL Energy Partners LP engages in the transportation, storage, blending, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, refined products / renewables, and water solutions. The company operates in three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics. The Water Solutions segment transports, treats, recycles, and disposes produced and flowback water generated from oil and natural gas production; aggregates and sells recovered crude oil; disposes solids, such as tank bottoms, and drilling fluid and muds, as well as performs truck and frac tank washouts; and sells produced water for reuse and recycle, and brackish non-potable water. The Crude Oil Logistics segment purchases crude oil from producers and marketers, and transports it to refineries for resale at pipeline injection stations, storage terminals, barge loading facilities, rail facilities, refineries, and other trade hubs; and provides storage, terminaling, and transportation services through pipelines. The Liquids Logistics segment supplies natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, and biodiesel to commercial, retail, and industrial customers in the United States and Canada through its 24 terminals, third-party storage and terminal facilities, and nine common carrier pipelines, as well as through fleet of leased railcars. This segment is also involved in the marine export of butane through its facility located in Chesapeake, Virginia. NGL Energy Holdings LLC serves as the general partner of the company. The company was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

NGL generates revenue primarily by charging fees and earning margins for midstream logistics and marketing activities across its operating segments. Key revenue streams include: (1) Water solutions/services: NGL is paid for produced-water handling and disposal (e.g., gathering/transport, disposal, and related infrastructure services) and for supplying/transporting water used in drilling and completion activities, with revenue typically tied to volumes handled and contracted service rates. (2) Crude oil logistics: NGL earns fees for crude oil gathering, transportation (including trucking and pipeline movements where applicable), terminaling, storage, and related throughput services; revenues generally depend on volumes moved and storage/throughput commitments under customer contracts. (3) Liquids (NGLs and refined products) and related marketing/distribution: NGL earns gross margins by purchasing, transporting, storing, and reselling NGLs and refined products (and providing associated logistics services), where profitability is driven by the spread between purchase and sale prices, supply/demand dynamics, and the company’s ability to optimize logistics using its asset network; some activities may be supported by contracts and hedging/risk-management practices disclosed by the company. Overall earnings are influenced by commodity price volatility (to the extent the company has exposure in marketing activities), customer activity levels (production and drilling/completions volumes), contracted minimum volume/throughput commitments where present, and the utilization of owned/leased logistics assets (pipelines, terminals, storage, trucking, and disposal infrastructure). Specific named partnerships or counterparties materially contributing to earnings: null.

NGL Energy Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operations and profitability have improved and cash generation is solid (positive operating and free cash flow), but the balance sheet is a major constraint with high leverage. Revenue has also been shrinking over multiple years, which adds durability risk despite better margins.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully versus prior years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) showing solid operating and EBITDA margins and positive net income. That said, the top line has been shrinking (TTM revenue down sharply, with multiple years of declines), which raises questions about the durability of earnings even as margins improve. Historically, results have been volatile, including loss years, which keeps the score in the middle range despite the recent rebound.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains the key overhang. Recent periods show a high debt load relative to equity (debt-to-equity consistently elevated), which reduces flexibility in a weaker volume/price environment. While TTM returns on equity are strong, equity has also trended lower over time, and the overall balance sheet profile looks more leveraged than is comfortable for a cyclical/commodity-exposed business.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are both healthy and comfortably positive, supporting debt service and reinvestment. However, free cash flow is down versus the prior period and cash conversion is not consistently strong (free cash flow is less than net income in TTM), suggesting working-capital and/or capital-spend needs can meaningfully influence year-to-year cash outcomes.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.18B	3.47B	4.15B	5.68B	7.95B	5.23B
Gross Profit	755.25M	707.38M	701.76M	716.50M	519.88M	733.20M
EBITDA	639.38M	594.99M	380.41M	558.06M	377.76M	408.73M
Net Income	159.11M	39.37M	-143.75M	51.39M	-184.76M	-639.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.38B	4.61B	5.02B	5.46B	6.07B	5.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.48M	13.55M	38.91M	5.43M	3.82M	4.83M
Total Debt	3.15B	3.08B	2.97B	2.95B	3.47B	3.47B
Total Liabilities	3.79B	3.91B	4.02B	4.14B	4.80B	4.45B
Stockholders Equity	623.54M	676.70M	1.03B	1.35B	1.30B	1.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	291.14M	51.65M	51.65M	297.42M	63.49M	117.19M
Operating Cash Flow	525.54M	297.46M	297.46M	445.19M	205.85M	303.99M
Investing Cash Flow	55.68M	-122.81M	-122.81M	64.19M	-212.41M	-221.49M
Financing Cash Flow	-583.67M	-207.91M	-207.91M	-507.76M	5.55M	-100.38M

NGL Energy Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.72, below the 50-day MA of 11.27, and above the 200-day MA of 7.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGL.

NGL Energy Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NGL	64 Neutral	$1.44B	6.63	24.41%	―	-38.82%	92.56%
SMC	64 Neutral	$594.92M	-169.84	-2.47%	―	17.09%	72.64%
GLP	60 Neutral	$1.65B	17.89	12.24%	6.93%	4.10%	-36.72%
GEL	58 Neutral	$2.15B	24.04	-162.28%	4.14%	-36.47%	-75.37%
MMLP	58 Neutral	$102.64M	-7.02	18.35%	0.77%	-0.58%	-587.83%

NGL Energy Partners Corporate Events

NGL Energy Partners Refinances Debt and Simplifies Capital Structure

On March 12, 2026, NGL Energy Partners closed a new seven‑year $950 million senior secured term loan facility through its subsidiaries, increasing its secured debt financing from $687.8 million and using proceeds to repay its prior term loan. The partnership also plans to redeem or repurchase about 195,000 Class D preferred units, leaving roughly 316,000 outstanding, a move its CEO framed as a meaningful step toward a simpler, more flexible capital structure.

The term loan, which matures on March 11, 2033, features SOFR‑ or base‑rate pricing with leverage‑linked margins, quarterly amortization starting with the quarter ending June 30, 2026, and customary covenants and guarantees from NGL’s subsidiaries. In conjunction with the new facility, NGL amended its asset‑based revolving credit facility on March 12, 2026, trimming total commitments from $475 million to $425 million and lowering interest margins and fees, collectively reshaping its liquidity profile and debt costs.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGL) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NGL Energy Partners stock, see the NGL Stock Forecast page.

NGL Energy Partners Unitholders Approve Incentive Plan, Auditor

On February 9, 2026, NGL Energy Partners held a special meeting of unitholders of record as of December 18, 2025, to vote on a new long-term incentive plan, the appointment of its independent auditor for fiscal 2026, and a potential adjournment option. Unitholders approved the 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan and ratified Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026, reinforcing the partnership’s executive and employee compensation framework and confirming continuity in its external financial oversight, while the adjournment proposal was deemed unnecessary and was not acted upon.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGL) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NGL Energy Partners stock, see the NGL Stock Forecast page.