Newmont Mining (NEM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $120.80B
• Dividend Yield: 0.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: 26.25%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 44,100
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 2.52
• Shares Outstanding: 1,087,874,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,613,020
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,276,492
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.91
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.29
• 1Y Price Target: $156.61
• Price Target Upside: 41.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $28.15B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $122.00 ▲(9.87% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial footing (strong balance sheet and improving cash generation) and strong technical uptrend signals. It is tempered by earnings/data volatility and interpretability risk in the financials, plus near-term operational/JV and sequencing headwinds outlined on the earnings call; valuation is neutral with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet and cash generation

Sustained, materially improved cash generation and a strong balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility. Record FCF in 2025 funds sustaining/development capital, supports the net cash target and the $5B minimum cash buffer, allowing disciplined reinvestment and shareholder returns through cycles.

Capital-allocation framework and shareholder returns

A formalized capital-allocation policy with a sustainable dividend and controlled buybacks signals management discipline. Coupled with $4.5B divestiture proceeds realized, this reduces execution risk for shareholder returns and prioritizes balance-sheet resilience over cyclical cash swings.

Large reserve base and project execution

A deep reserve/resource position and recent project commissioning (Ahafo North adding >300k oz) provide long-term production optionality. Combined with demonstrated project execution and exploration success, this underpins multi-decade production potential and supports steady mid-term output growth.

Negative Factors

JV operational and legal risk

A formal default notice in a major JV introduces governance and operational uncertainty that can delay production, increase dispute-related costs, and complicate capital allocation. JV disputes are structural risks that can persist months and affect a large portion of output and cash flow.

2026 production trough and sequencing

A planned production trough shifts the company into a period of lower attributable ounces and higher H2 weighting, pressuring near-term revenue and free cash flow generation. This sequencing risk reduces margin visibility and limits headroom for growth capex or opportunistic returns over the 2–6 month horizon.

Reserve reclassifications and project deferments

Reclassification of reserves and deferral of long-lead projects reduce near- to mid-term production optionality and signal portfolio uncertainty. Loss of near-mine reserve converts future supply uncertainty into a structural headwind for production growth and long-term valuation of development capital.

Newmont Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Newmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and Ghana. As of December 31, 2021, it had proven and probable gold reserves of 92.8 million ounces and land position of 62,800 square kilometers. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Newmont makes money mainly by producing and selling metals, led by gold. Revenue is recognized from the sale of mined and processed metal (typically as doré bars for gold/silver and concentrates or other saleable forms for copper and certain by-products) to customers such as refiners, smelters, and commodity buyers, with pricing largely based on prevailing market prices for the relevant commodities. The company’s key revenue streams include (1) gold sales, which generally represent the largest share of revenue; (2) copper sales; and (3) by-product metal sales (e.g., silver, zinc, lead) that are generated alongside primary metal production and help offset operating costs. Earnings are driven by a combination of realized commodity prices, sales volumes, ore grades and recoveries, production costs (including energy, labor, consumables, and logistics), sustaining and growth capital spending, and the timing of shipments and sales. Newmont also generates cash flow from managing its asset base—acquiring, developing, optimizing, or divesting mines and projects—though proceeds from asset sales are episodic rather than core operating revenue. The company’s results can be significantly affected by factors such as commodity price movements, foreign exchange rates, operating performance and downtime, reserve/resource updates, regulatory and permitting outcomes, and royalties and production taxes tied to mining jurisdictions. Significant partnerships specific to earnings: null.

Newmont Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a clear positive (modest leverage and improved ROE), and cash generation improved meaningfully with strong operating cash flow and accelerating free cash flow in the last two years. Offsetting this, profitability and growth have been volatile (losses in 2022–2023), and 2025 reporting inconsistencies (revenue/margin fields recorded as zero despite large profit metrics) reduce confidence in trend quality.

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have been highly volatile. After losses in 2022–2023, 2024 rebounded strongly with healthy margins and solid revenue growth. However, the 2025 annual report shows revenue and margin fields recorded as zero (despite large EBIT/EBITDA and net income), which materially reduces confidence in trend quality and suggests one-time items or data inconsistency; overall earnings power looks improved but not yet stable.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage is modest to moderate in most years and appears extremely low in 2025, supported by a large equity base. Return on equity swung from negative in 2022–2023 to solidly positive in 2024 and very strong in 2025, indicating improved profitability versus the capital base. Key risk is the magnitude of year-to-year swings in returns, which points to cyclical/one-off impacts typical in the sector.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved meaningfully: operating cash flow rose sharply from 2023 to 2024 and further in 2025, and free cash flow growth is strong in the last two years. That said, cash conversion was weak in 2023 (very low free cash flow relative to results), and 2024 free cash flow covered less than half of net income, implying heavier reinvestment or working-capital/capex drag before the 2025 step-up.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.10B	18.56B	11.78B	11.95B	12.19B
Gross Profit	11.00B	6.42B	1.17B	2.14B	2.38B
EBITDA	13.12B	7.87B	1.86B	3.28B	5.54B
Net Income	7.08B	3.35B	-2.52B	-459.00M	1.17B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	57.12B	56.35B	55.51B	38.48B	40.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.65B	3.64B	3.02B	3.76B	5.07B
Total Debt	474.00M	8.97B	9.44B	6.13B	6.30B
Total Liabilities	23.08B	26.24B	26.30B	18.95B	18.70B
Stockholders Equity	33.87B	29.93B	29.03B	19.35B	22.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.30B	2.96B	97.00M	1.09B	2.63B
Operating Cash Flow	10.33B	6.36B	2.76B	3.22B	4.28B
Investing Cash Flow	739.00M	-2.70B	-1.00B	-2.98B	-1.87B
Financing Cash Flow	-7.17B	-2.95B	-1.60B	-2.36B	-2.96B

Newmont Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 111.04
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 111.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 119.85, below the 50-day MA of 118.17, and above the 200-day MA of 86.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NEM.

Newmont Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AU	78 Outperform	$48.57B	16.43	35.18%	2.82%	26.43%	―
GFI	75 Outperform	$42.32B	10.92	50.82%	1.51%	49.62%	195.39%
RGLD	74 Outperform	$21.70B	33.10	10.92%	0.77%	28.11%	66.85%
NEM	72 Outperform	$120.80B	15.59	21.72%	0.95%	26.25%	―
HMY	71 Outperform	$10.19B	5.53	32.51%	0.87%	29.08%	72.12%
HL	66 Neutral	$13.15B	38.89	13.65%	0.07%	45.61%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%