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Neurocrine (NBIX)
NASDAQ:NBIX
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Neurocrine
(NASDAQ:NBIX)
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Select Model
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$159.00
▲(21.71% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, strong cash generation, and low leverage) and a positive earnings-call outlook with continued growth guidance and solid profitability/cash. The main offsets are mixed technical momentum (negative MACD, below key mid-term averages) and a relatively high P/E with no dividend yield support.
Positive Factors
Cash generation strength
Consistent, high free-cash-flow conversion (FCL ~91–96%) and a jump to ~$748.7M in FCF provides durable funding for R&D, commercial expansion, and optionality for M&A or buybacks. Strong cash conversion limits reliance on external financing and supports multi-year strategy execution.
High margins and revenue growth
Exceptionally high gross margins and improving net margins with multi-year revenue growth signal durable profitability and pricing power. This margin structure supports sustained reinvestment into pipelines and commercial expansion while insulating core cash flows from modest revenue volatility.
Successful CRENESSITY launch
A rapid first-year commercial scale with meaningful persistence and reimbursement signals demonstrates real-world demand and expands Neurocrine's commercial footprint. Early commercial traction diversifies revenue beyond INGREZZA and creates a platform to expand endocrinology adoption over coming years.
Negative Factors
Pricing and formulary pressure
A recurring ~4% pricing headwind from formulary contracting is structural for specialty drugs and can erode revenue growth even with volume gains. Persistent access negotiations may compress unit economics over time, requiring higher volumes or cost control to preserve margins.
Product concentration risk
With INGREZZA representing the majority of sales, the company remains exposed to competitive, pricing, or formulary shifts impacting a single franchise. That concentration makes long-term revenue and cash forecasts sensitive to market dynamics and successful diversification execution.
Rising SG&A and R&D investment
Planned sizable increases in SG&A and R&D to expand sales force and fund Phase III programs will pressure GAAP margins and require sustained revenue growth to justify higher fixed costs. Execution risk exists if commercial lift or trial outcomes lag expectations.
Neurocrine (NBIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.1
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth19.61%
EPS Growth11.36%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.48
Shares Outstanding100,363,464
10 Day Avg. Volume1,480,001
30 Day Avg. Volume1,121,202
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.71
Price to Book (P/B)4.34
Price to Sales (P/S)4.93
P/FCF Ratio18.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$176.43Price Target Upside35.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)5.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.44B
Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. The company's portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids, as well as clinical programs in various therapeutic areas. Its lead asset is INGREZZA, a VMAT2 inhibitor for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia. The company's commercial products include ONGENTYS, a catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitor used as an adjunct therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors for patients with Parkinson's disease; ORILISSA for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women; and ORIAHNN, a non-surgical oral medication option for the management of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in pre-menopausal women. Its product candidates in clinical development include NBI-921352 for treating pediatric patients, as well as adult focal epilepsy indications; and NBI-827104 to treat rare pediatric epilepsy and essential tremor. The company's products in clinical development also comprise NBI-1065845 for the treatment of major depressive disorder; NBI-1065846 for treating anhedonia in major depressive disorder; and NBI-118568 for the treatment of schizophrenia. It has license and collaboration agreements with Heptares Therapeutics Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals Ltd; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; BIAL Portela & Ca, S.A.; Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyNeurocrine Biosciences generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its pharmaceutical products, notably Ingrezza and Ongentys. The company earns money from product sales to healthcare providers and pharmacies, following the approval of its products by regulatory agencies such as the FDA. Additionally, Neurocrine may receive milestone payments and royalties from collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies for the development and commercialization of new drugs. These collaborations often involve sharing the costs and risks associated with drug development, thus contributing to Neurocrine's earnings. The company also invests in R&D to expand its pipeline, which can lead to future revenue streams from new products.
Neurocrine Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNeurocrine Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial execution, robust top-line growth (22% YoY), a very successful first-year launch for CRENESSITY (> $300M and ~10% penetration), solid cash generation (+$700M to $2.5B) and meaningful pipeline momentum (Phase II entry for NBI-'890 and two Phase III neuropsychiatry programs with 2027 readouts). Headwinds include pricing/formulary concessions (≈ -4% pricing impact), higher SG&A/R&D investments to support sales force expansion and late-stage trials, and early-launch variability for CRENESSITY with limited prescriber depth (two-thirds of prescribers have only one treated patient). Overall, positives — strong revenue, cash, differentiated clinical data and a growing pipeline — outweigh the manageable near-term commercial and expense challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Total product sales exceeded $2.8 billion in FY2025, representing 22% year-over-year growth versus FY2024.
INGREZZA: Durable Franchise with Double-Digit Volume Growth
INGREZZA generated just over $2.5 billion in revenue in 2025 (up 9% YoY). Management guides INGREZZA sales of $2.7–$2.8 billion for 2026 (~10% growth) driven by double-digit volume growth and an expanded sales force; net pricing expected to be relatively consistent with exit-2025 levels.
CRENESSITY: Very Strong First Full-Year Launch
CRENESSITY delivered more than $300 million in net product sales in its first full commercial year (2025) and reached ~10% of the addressable classic CAH population. Real-world signals include rapid reimbursement, strong refill/persistence behavior, and >550 patient-years of real-world exposure.
Compelling Clinical Differentiation and Safety Data
CRENESSITY open-label extension: durable ACTH and androgen reductions through 2 years, ~80% retention at 2 years, 0% pediatric adrenal insufficiency in double-blind study and 1.6% in adults, slowing of bone-age advancement in prepubertal subset (predicted adult height gain >2 inches), ~70% of adults brought into physiologic steroid range, and ~40% of overweight/obese adults lost ≥5% body weight over 2 years.
INGREZZA Receptor-Occupancy Edge vs Competitor
Head-to-head PET data showed INGREZZA produced nearly twofold higher VMAT2 target occupancy versus AUSTEDO XR at therapeutic doses, supporting differentiated efficacy claims.
Strong Cash Position and Profitability
Cash and investments rose by approximately $700 million to $2.5 billion at year-end 2025 (from $1.8 billion), and the company delivered ~30% non-GAAP operating margin (~$850 million non-GAAP operating income) in 2025.
Productivity and Pipeline Momentum
2025 was the most productive clinical year (met Phase I–III objectives). Pipeline highlights include NBI-'890 entering Phase II (VMAT2 follow-on), NBI-'675 advancing, and two late-stage Phase III neuropsychiatry programs (osavampator in MDD and direclidine in schizophrenia) with top-line data expected in 2027.
Commercial Investments to Drive Growth
Planned sales force expansions for both INGREZZA and CRENESSITY (CRENESSITY field additions deploying in April 2026) and investments in AI/patient-finding and medical education aimed at expanding reach into endocrinology and non-endocrinology prescribers.
Negative Updates
Pricing and Formulary Concessions
Management acknowledged pricing concessions tied to formulary access investments that partially offset volume-driven revenue gains; commentary referenced a roughly -4% pricing impact year-over-year associated with contracting entered in 2025.
CRENESSITY: Early-Launch Variability and Limited Prescriber Depth
Quarter-to-quarter start form activity for CRENESSITY has been variable; the company is not providing 2026 sales guidance. While >1,000 prescribers wrote at least one script, ~2/3 of those physicians have treated only one patient so far, indicating limited depth and a need for ongoing education/activation.
Rising SG&A and R&D Investment Requirements
SG&A growth reflects sales force expansion (GAAP SG&A expected in the low-40% of sales for 2026 at midpoint). R&D is rising due to full-year Phase III programs (GAAP R&D expense expected in the mid-30% of sales range excluding ~ $25M in milestones); major Phase III costs will carry through 2027 with roll-off in 2028.
Uncertainty from Competitive and Formulary Dynamics
Potential 2027 formulary impacts noted (deuterated tetrabenazine becoming negotiated/MFP) and ongoing competitive pipeline risk (e.g., ACTH antagonists in development for CAH), creating medium-term access and pricing uncertainty despite management confidence.
Near-Term Modeling/Seasonality Unknowns and Gross-to-Net Headwind
Management stated it is too early to determine seasonality or steady-state patient add rates for CRENESSITY; analysts should note a ~5% Q1 gross-to-net impact related to a commercial co-pay reset that could affect Q1 comparatives.
Company Guidance
Neurocrine guided that INGREZZA sales are expected to be $2.7–$2.8 billion in 2026 (≈10% growth versus 2025) driven by double‑digit volume growth with net pricing roughly stable versus levels exiting 2025 (Matt cited a ~4% price headwind factored into 2026), an expanded sales force to be in place by end‑Q1 and continued strong NRx momentum and broad access; CRENESSITY had >$300 million of net sales in 2025, reached ~10% of the classic CAH population by year‑end with >1,000 prescribers (≈2/3 of them having treated only one patient), and the company is not providing 2026 sales guidance while highlighting CRENESSITY metrics including >450 patient‑years of trial exposure, >550 patient‑years real‑world exposure, >35,000 patient‑weeks exposure, ~80% retention at 2 years, 0% pediatric adrenal insufficiency (1.6% in adults), ~70% of adults brought into physiologic steroid range, ~40% of overweight/obese patients with ≥5% weight loss at 2 years and a >2‑inch predicted adult height benefit in a prepubertal subset; company‑level 2025 results were >$2.8 billion total product sales (22% YoY growth) with INGREZZA ≈$2.5 billion (9% YoY), cash of ~$2.5 billion (up ~$700M from $1.8B), ~30% non‑GAAP operating margin (~$850M non‑GAAP operating income, including $83M of R&D/IP expense), and 2026 expectations of continued strong non‑GAAP income alongside increased SG&A (GAAP SG&A ~low‑40% of sales at the midpoint) and higher R&D (GAAP R&D ex. ≈$25M milestones ~mid‑30% of sales) as the company advances registrational programs with top‑line Phase III data expected in 2027.Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong and improving profitability (net margin up to ~16.7% by 2025), revenue more than doubled since 2020, and cash generation is a standout with high, consistent free-cash-flow conversion. Offsets include moderating 2025 growth and a potential comparability concern in the provided 2025 operating margin figures.Income Statement
Profitability is strong and improving: net margin rose from ~7.9% (2021) to ~16.7% (2025), while gross margin remains exceptionally high (~98–99%) across the period. Revenue has more than doubled from ~$1.05B (2020) to ~$2.86B (2025), showing a solid multi-year growth trajectory, though 2025 growth moderated to ~6.6% versus the higher growth rates seen in 2022–2024. A key weakness is a sharp drop in operating profitability in 2025 based on the provided figures (operating margin listed as 0% despite positive EBIT/EBITDA), which introduces uncertainty around comparability and underlying cost trends.86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks conservatively levered with low debt relative to equity, improving from ~0.37 (2020) to ~0.13 (2025). Equity has grown meaningfully (to ~$3.25B in 2025), supporting a larger asset base and indicating retained profitability over time. Returns on equity are solid (~14.7% in 2025), although they are well below the unusually high 2020 level, suggesting normalization. Overall risk from leverage appears contained, but the company remains dependent on sustaining profitability to keep returns attractive.84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a standout: operating cash flow increased from ~$228.5M (2020) to ~$782.7M (2025) and free cash flow reached ~$748.7M (2025). Free cash flow is consistently close to net income (roughly ~91–96% across the years), indicating earnings quality is generally backed by cash. Free cash flow growth accelerated in 2025 (+~26.2%), a positive signal. A watch item is that operating cash flow relative to net income is not consistently above 1.0 (notably weaker in 2022–2023), implying some periodic working-capital or timing headwinds.88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.86B | 2.36B | 1.89B | 1.49B | 1.13B |
| Gross Profit | 2.81B | 2.32B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.12B |
| EBITDA | 666.60M | 639.70M | 416.10M | 264.60M | 138.10M |
| Net Income | 478.60M | 341.30M | 249.70M | 154.50M | 89.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.63B | 3.72B | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.48B | 1.08B | 1.03B | 989.30M | 711.30M |
| Total Debt | 415.30M | 455.10M | 428.40M | 262.90M | 440.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.38B | 1.13B | 1.02B | 660.90M | 698.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.25B | 2.59B | 2.23B | 1.71B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 748.70M | 557.20M | 361.60M | 322.90M | 233.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 782.70M | 595.40M | 389.90M | 339.40M | 256.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -264.40M | -126.80M | -467.10M | -177.10M | -130.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.30M | -486.70M | 65.30M | -234.30M | 27.40M |
Neurocrine Technical Analysis
Neutral
130.64
Price Trends
137.42
Negative
141.08
Negative
136.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.40
Positive
45.54
Neutral
50.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 130.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 133.48, below the 50-day MA of 137.42, and below the 200-day MA of 136.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NBIX.
Neurocrine Risk Analysis
Neurocrine disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neurocrine reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Neurocrine Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.27B | 12.40 | 14.84% | ― | -0.03% | -27.66% | |
78 Outperform | $13.14B | 28.10 | 16.38% | ― | 19.61% | 11.36% | |
70 Outperform | $11.93B | 18.96 | ― | 0.64% | 10.63% | 6.35% | |
67 Neutral | $1.01B | 52.59 | 2.90% | ― | 3.14% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $39.96B | 27.62 | 21.37% | ― | -0.25% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $18.50B | -5.19 | -21.09% | 3.99% | -6.40% | -320.23% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NBIX
Neurocrine
130.64
13.13
11.17%
RDY
Dr Reddy's Laboratories
14.58
1.70
13.15%
VTRS
Viatris
15.25
6.18
68.14%
PCRX
Pacira Pharmaceuticals
22.59
-2.79
-10.99%
TEVA
Teva Pharmaceutical
33.77
17.45
106.92%
AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals
26.49
-5.00
-15.88%
Neurocrine Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Neurocrine Extends Eiry W. Roberts’ Employment Term
Neutral
Nov 24, 2025
On June 2, 2025, Sanjay Keswani, M.D. took over as Chief Medical Officer of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc., succeeding Eiry W. Roberts, M.D. In conjunction with this leadership change, Dr. Roberts transitioned to a role as Strategic Advisor, with her employment term extended until December 31, 2026, following an amendment to her employment agreement made on November 21, 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (NBIX) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Neurocrine stock, see the NBIX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.