Neurocrine (NBIX)
NASDAQ:NBIX
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Neurocrine
(NASDAQ:NBIX)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$149.00
▲(17.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, low leverage, and standout free-cash-flow generation) and a generally upbeat earnings outlook with continued INGREZZA growth and a meaningful second growth vector in CRENESSITY. Offsetting factors are a mixed technical picture (below longer-term moving averages and slightly negative MACD) and a not-cheap valuation (P/E ~29.5 with no dividend yield provided), with M&A providing incremental diversification but adding execution risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sizable and consistent free cash flow provides durable funding for clinical programs, sales expansion, M&A and capital returns without heavy reliance on external financing. This cash convertibility also supports resilience through trial timelines and reimbursement cycles.
Negative Factors
CRENESSITY launch depth
Early prescriber breadth with shallow depth implies a lengthy conversion process requiring sustained medical education and field effort. If prescriber activation stalls, sales penetration and retention assumptions may take multiple years to realize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sizable and consistent free cash flow provides durable funding for clinical programs, sales expansion, M&A and capital returns without heavy reliance on external financing. This cash convertibility also supports resilience through trial timelines and reimbursement cycles.
Read all positive factors
Neurocrine (NBIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.94B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.5
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth19.61%
EPS Growth11.36%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.48
Shares Outstanding100,363,464
10 Day Avg. Volume1,055,662
30 Day Avg. Volume1,010,072
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.71
Price to Book (P/B)4.34
Price to Sales (P/S)4.93
P/FCF Ratio18.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$183.67Price Target Upside45.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
EPS Forecast (FY)6.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.47B
Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. The company's portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and uteri...
How the Company Makes Money
Neurocrine primarily makes money from product sales of its commercial medicines, with INGREZZA representing the core revenue driver through U.S. (and where applicable, ex-U.S.) net sales to wholesalers and specialty distributors, net of rebates, d...
Neurocrine Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNeurocrine Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial execution, robust top-line growth (22% YoY), a very successful first-year launch for CRENESSITY (> $300M and ~10% penetration), solid cash generation (+$700M to $2.5B) and meaningful pipeline momentum (Phase II entry for NBI-'890 and two Phase III neuropsychiatry programs with 2027 readouts). Headwinds include pricing/formulary concessions (≈ -4% pricing impact), higher SG&A/R&D investments to support sales force expansion and late-stage trials, and early-launch variability for CRENESSITY with limited prescriber depth (two-thirds of prescribers have only one treated patient). Overall, positives — strong revenue, cash, differentiated clinical data and a growing pipeline — outweigh the manageable near-term commercial and expense challenges.Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Total product sales exceeded $2.8 billion in FY2025, representing 22% year-over-year growth versus FY2024.
Negative Updates
Pricing and Formulary Concessions
Management acknowledged pricing concessions tied to formulary access investments that partially offset volume-driven revenue gains; commentary referenced a roughly -4% pricing impact year-over-year associated with contracting entered in 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Total product sales exceeded $2.8 billion in FY2025, representing 22% year-over-year growth versus FY2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Neurocrine guided that INGREZZA sales are expected to be $2.7–$2.8 billion in 2026 (≈10% growth versus 2025) driven by double‑digit volume growth with net pricing roughly stable versus levels exiting 2025 (Matt cited a ~4% price headwind factored into 2026), an expanded sales force to be in place by end‑Q1 and continued strong NRx momentum and broad access; CRENESSITY had >$300 million of net sales in 2025, reached ~10% of the classic CAH population by year‑end with >1,000 prescribers (≈2/3 of them having treated only one patient), and the company is not providing 2026 sales guidance while highlighting CRENESSITY metrics including >450 patient‑years of trial exposure, >550 patient‑years real‑world exposure, >35,000 patient‑weeks exposure, ~80% retention at 2 years, 0% pediatric adrenal insufficiency (1.6% in adults), ~70% of adults brought into physiologic steroid range, ~40% of overweight/obese patients with ≥5% weight loss at 2 years and a >2‑inch predicted adult height benefit in a prepubertal subset; company‑level 2025 results were >$2.8 billion total product sales (22% YoY growth) with INGREZZA ≈$2.5 billion (9% YoY), cash of ~$2.5 billion (up ~$700M from $1.8B), ~30% non‑GAAP operating margin (~$850M non‑GAAP operating income, including $83M of R&D/IP expense), and 2026 expectations of continued strong non‑GAAP income alongside increased SG&A (GAAP SG&A ~low‑40% of sales at the midpoint) and higher R&D (GAAP R&D ex. ≈$25M milestones ~mid‑30% of sales) as the company advances registrational programs with top‑line Phase III data expected in 2027.Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.86B | 2.36B | 1.89B | 1.49B | 1.13B |
| Gross Profit | 2.81B | 2.32B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.12B |
| EBITDA | 666.60M | 639.70M | 416.10M | 264.60M | 138.10M |
| Net Income | 478.60M | 341.30M | 249.70M | 154.50M | 89.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.63B | 3.72B | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.48B | 1.08B | 1.03B | 989.30M | 711.30M |
| Total Debt | 415.30M | 455.10M | 428.40M | 262.90M | 440.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.38B | 1.13B | 1.02B | 660.90M | 698.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.25B | 2.59B | 2.23B | 1.71B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 748.70M | 557.20M | 361.60M | 322.90M | 233.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 782.70M | 595.40M | 389.90M | 339.40M | 256.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -264.40M | -126.80M | -467.10M | -177.10M | -130.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.30M | -486.70M | 65.30M | -234.30M | 27.40M |
Neurocrine Technical Analysis
Negative
126.32
Price Trends
131.30
Negative
137.14
Negative
137.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.33
Positive
40.51
Neutral
40.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 126.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.17, below the 50-day MA of 131.30, and below the 200-day MA of 137.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBIX.
Neurocrine Risk Analysis
Neurocrine disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neurocrine reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Neurocrine Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $12.94B | 29.49 | 16.67% | ― | 19.61% | 11.36% | |
70 Outperform | $11.02B | 21.72 | 16.00% | 0.64% | 10.63% | 6.35% | |
67 Neutral | $963.25M | 163.97 | 0.95% | ― | 3.14% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $36.74B | 25.43 | 20.09% | ― | -0.25% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $924.19M | 12.76 | 12.76% | ― | -0.03% | -27.66% | |
56 Neutral | $15.51B | -4.15 | -22.99% | 3.99% | -6.40% | -320.23% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NBIX
Neurocrine
126.32
30.16
31.36%
RDY
Dr Reddy's Laboratories
13.27
0.02
0.13%
VTRS
Viatris
13.83
6.68
93.53%
PCRX
Pacira Pharmaceuticals
24.06
-0.82
-3.30%
TEVA
Teva Pharmaceutical
31.15
17.55
129.04%
AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals
21.36
-2.14
-9.11%
Neurocrine Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Neurocrine to Acquire Soleno, Expanding Rare Disease Portfolio
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 5, 2026, Neurocrine agreed to acquire Soleno Therapeutics via a cash tender offer at $53 per share, valuing the deal at about $2.9 billion and representing sizable premiums to Soleno’s recent trading levels. The transaction, funded ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.