Neurocrine (NBIX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 959.42K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 18.42%
• EPS Growth: 1.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 1.06
• Shares Outstanding: 99,181,510
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 723,661
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 959,418
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.91
• 1Y Price Target: $167.17
• Price Target Upside: 19.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 24

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $152.00 ▲(8.26% Upside)

Neurocrine Biosciences' strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its stock score. Technical indicators support a positive trend, although valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Neurocrine posted a breakout quarter for Crenessity, generating $53M in sales, significantly surpassing consensus expectations.

Product Launch

The Crenessity launch has been solid beating both the company's and investor expectations, and management is pleased with the performance so far.

Negative Factors

Pricing Pressure

Management expects a 5% hit to the average selling price driven by increased contracting for Medicare formulary coverage.

Revenue Guidance

Neurocrine lowered its FY25 Ingrezza guidance by $50M at the top end, suggesting that Ingrezza's revenue growth in the VMAT2 market may be hampered by continued Austedo growth.

Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. The company's portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids, as well as clinical programs in various therapeutic areas. Its lead asset is INGREZZA, a VMAT2 inhibitor for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia. The company's commercial products include ONGENTYS, a catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitor used as an adjunct therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors for patients with Parkinson's disease; ORILISSA for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women; and ORIAHNN, a non-surgical oral medication option for the management of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in pre-menopausal women. Its product candidates in clinical development include NBI-921352 for treating pediatric patients, as well as adult focal epilepsy indications; and NBI-827104 to treat rare pediatric epilepsy and essential tremor. The company's products in clinical development also comprise NBI-1065845 for the treatment of major depressive disorder; NBI-1065846 for treating anhedonia in major depressive disorder; and NBI-118568 for the treatment of schizophrenia. It has license and collaboration agreements with Heptares Therapeutics Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals Ltd; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; BIAL Portela & Ca, S.A.; Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Neurocrine generates revenue primarily through the sales of its approved pharmaceutical products, especially Ingrezza and Ongentys, which contribute significantly to its earnings. The company's revenue model is largely driven by direct product sales to healthcare providers and pharmacies, as well as partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies for drug development and commercialization. Neurocrine has also engaged in licensing agreements, which can provide additional revenue streams through milestone payments and royalties. The company's strategic focus on expanding its product pipeline and leveraging its expertise in neurology and endocrinology further supports its financial growth.

Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Neurocrine Biosciences demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and high gross profit margins. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and strong equity positions. Cash flow is consistently positive, supporting operational flexibility. However, attention to increasing operational expenses and debt is necessary.

Income Statement

The company has shown a robust revenue growth trajectory, with a 33% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a 6.5% increase in TTM compared to 2024. Gross profit margins remain high, consistently above 98%, indicating efficient cost management. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins show some decline in TTM, suggesting increasing operational expenses. Despite this, net profit margins have remained stable, showcasing good bottom-line management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16 in the TTM period, reflecting prudent leverage management. ROE is healthy at 12.9% for TTM, indicating effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio at 69.2% suggests solid equity financing. However, the slight increase in total debt over the periods could be a future concern if it continues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is solid, with consistent free cash flow generation and a stable free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating strong cash earnings quality. Operating cash flow covers net income comfortably in TTM, demonstrating effective cash management. However, slight volatility in free cash flow growth could suggest room for improvement in managing capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.51B	2.36B	1.89B	1.49B	1.13B	1.05B
Gross Profit	2.47B	2.32B	1.85B	1.47B	1.12B	1.04B
EBITDA	557.20M	639.70M	416.10M	264.60M	138.10M	148.10M
Net Income	348.30M	341.30M	249.70M	154.50M	89.60M	407.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.89B	3.72B	3.25B	2.37B	2.07B	1.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	975.60M	1.08B	1.03B	989.30M	711.30M	801.00M
Total Debt	439.10M	455.10M	428.40M	262.90M	440.40M	412.30M
Total Liabilities	1.20B	1.13B	1.02B	660.90M	698.50M	608.50M
Stockholders Equity	2.69B	2.59B	2.23B	1.71B	1.37B	1.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	528.70M	557.20M	361.60M	322.90M	233.10M	217.60M
Operating Cash Flow	567.30M	595.40M	389.90M	339.40M	256.50M	228.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-58.40M	-126.80M	-467.10M	-177.10M	-130.20M	4.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-384.80M	-486.70M	65.30M	-234.30M	27.40M	-157.80M

Neurocrine Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 140.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 140.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 133.76, above the 50-day MA of 132.01, and above the 200-day MA of 124.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBIX.

Neurocrine Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NBIX	78 Outperform	$14.08B	40.18	13.39%	―	18.42%	1.47%
RDY	75 Outperform	$11.90B	17.66	17.48%	0.65%	13.13%	-0.47%
AMPH	68 Neutral	$1.43B	11.00	18.32%	―	1.37%	-18.10%
PCRX	61 Neutral	$1.22B	―	-15.57%	―	2.25%	-301.59%
VTRS	59 Neutral	$12.31B	―	-19.77%	4.65%	-7.47%	-438.39%
TEVA	58 Neutral	$21.49B	―	-2.31%	―	2.43%	64.37%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.91B	-0.36	-41.71%	2.23%	23.45%	-1.86%

Neurocrine Corporate Events

Neurocrine Announces Leadership Transition with New CMO

Neurocrine has announced a leadership transition with Sanjay Keswani, M.D. set to succeed Eiry W. Roberts, M.D. as Chief Medical Officer effective June 2, 2025. Dr. Roberts, who has served in the role for seven years, will continue with the company as a Strategic Advisor to the CEO until the end of 2025. The transition involves an amended employment agreement for Dr. Roberts, maintaining her salary and bonus eligibility while ensuring her equity awards continue to vest.

Neurocrine Holds Annual Meeting, Approves Key Matters

On May 21, 2025, Neurocrine held its Annual Meeting where stockholders voted on several key matters. The election of four Class II Directors was confirmed, and the compensation for named executive officers was approved. Additionally, the 2025 Plan and the Amended and Restated ESPP were sanctioned, and Ernst & Young LLP’s appointment as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified.