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Neurocrine
(NASDAQ:NBIX)
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Rating:86Outperform
Price Target:
$206.00
▲(54.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
NBIX scores highly primarily due to strong financial performance (expanding margins, low leverage, and robust free cash flow). Technicals add support with a clear uptrend and positive momentum. The earnings call reinforces the outlook via reaffirmed INGREZZA guidance and strong Q1 execution, partially offset by manageable commercial headwinds and investment/spend timing. Valuation is reasonable on P/E, but there is no dividend yield support in the provided data.
Positive Factors
High margins & free cash flow
Sustained very high gross margins and FCF (~$831M TTM, ~96% of net income) indicate durable earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This strengthens reinvestment ability, funds R&D and launches, and reduces reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Uneven revenue growth cadence
Volatile year-to-year growth complicates forecasting and capital allocation. Reliance on milestone timing, episodic launches and variable uptake means revenue may spike or plateau, increasing execution risk for multi-year planning and investor predictability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins & free cash flow
Sustained very high gross margins and FCF (~$831M TTM, ~96% of net income) indicate durable earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This strengthens reinvestment ability, funds R&D and launches, and reduces reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Neurocrine Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNeurocrine (NBIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.92B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.6
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth28.59%
EPS Growth120.51%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.71
Shares Outstanding100,549,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,066,076
30 Day Avg. Volume1,157,446
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.71
Price to Book (P/B)4.34
Price to Sales (P/S)4.93
P/FCF Ratio18.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$199.11Price Target Upside49.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)7.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.73B
Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is a pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the creation, advancement, and commercialization of medicines addressing a spectrum of neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric conditions. Its current therapeutic pipeline and mar...
How the Company Makes Money
Neurocrine primarily generates revenue from product sales of its commercial medicines, recorded as net product sales (after typical deductions such as rebates, chargebacks, and returns). A second major revenue stream comes from collaboration-relat...
Neurocrine Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial momentum and financial performance (record quarterly net product sales, INGREZZA growth of 20% YoY to $657M, Cranesity annualizing >$600M, ~44% overall revenue growth) alongside robust pipeline progress (multiple Phase 1/2 starts in 2026 and key Phase 3 readouts expected in 2027). Minor near-term headwinds were noted, including Q1 gross-to-net pressure for Cranesity, recurring Q1 payer seasonality for INGREZZA, early-stage commercial penetration for Cranesity, and limited disclosure on an in-progress acquisition. Overall, the positive commercial execution, high profitability, and strong R&D momentum materially outweigh the modest operational and timing risks discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Net Product Sales
Total net product sales exceeded $800 million for the first time in company history, representing ~44% year-over-year growth (Q1 2026).
Negative Updates
Gross-to-Net Pressure in Q1
Cranesity experienced slight gross-to-net pressure in Q1 2026 driven by commercial copay resets; management noted modest impact but indicated pressure was anticipated and manageable.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Net Product Sales
Total net product sales exceeded $800 million for the first time in company history, representing ~44% year-over-year growth (Q1 2026).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 INGREZZA guidance of $2.7–$2.8 billion after a record Q1 in which quarterly net product sales exceeded $800 million (≈44% YoY) and total revenue topped $800 million (>40% YoY); INGREZZA Q1 sales were $657 million (up 20% YoY; ~11% after adjusting for one fewer order week), Cranesity Q1 sales were $153 million and are annualizing at >$600 million, and GAAP and non‑GAAP net income were each about $200 million (non‑GAAP includes $44 million of milestone/IPR&D). Management also guided a non‑GAAP tax rate of ~22–24% for 2026, plans six new Phase 1 and four new Phase 2 starts this year (nine Phase 1s underway with four more to initiate), expects multiple key data readouts in 2027 (e.g., NBIP‑2118/CRF2 obesity, osavapitor in MDD, dereclidine in schizophrenia), and said the Soleno acquisition remains on track to close in Q2 with transaction financial details to be provided on the Q2 call.Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
92
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.10B | 2.86B | 2.36B | 1.89B | 1.49B | 1.13B |
| Gross Profit | 3.05B | 2.81B | 2.32B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.12B |
| EBITDA | 955.80M | 666.60M | 639.70M | 416.10M | 236.60M | 138.10M |
| Net Income | 668.60M | 478.60M | 341.30M | 249.70M | 154.50M | 89.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.91B | 4.63B | 3.72B | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.32B | 1.48B | 1.08B | 1.03B | 989.30M | 711.30M |
| Total Debt | 406.20M | 415.30M | 455.10M | 428.40M | 262.90M | 440.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.50B | 1.38B | 1.13B | 1.02B | 660.90M | 698.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.41B | 3.25B | 2.59B | 2.23B | 1.71B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 831.30M | 748.70M | 557.20M | 361.60M | 322.90M | 233.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 863.70M | 782.70M | 595.40M | 389.90M | 339.40M | 256.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -784.80M | -264.40M | -126.80M | -467.10M | -177.10M | -130.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.50M | -38.30M | -486.70M | 65.30M | -234.30M | 27.40M |
Neurocrine Technical Analysis
Positive
133.25
Price Trends
156.96
Positive
143.43
Positive
142.92
Positive
Market Momentum
5.34
Negative
71.65
Negative
94.25
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 133.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.70, below the 50-day MA of 156.96, and below the 200-day MA of 142.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.65 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBIX.
Neurocrine Risk Analysis
Neurocrine disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neurocrine reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Neurocrine Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $17.92B | 26.56 | 21.64% | ― | 28.59% | 120.51% | |
70 Outperform | $832.47M | 11.04 | 10.23% | ― | -1.39% | -41.70% | |
68 Neutral | $1.00B | 209.01 | 0.73% | ― | 4.57% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $11.78B | 26.23 | 11.76% | 0.64% | -1.06% | -26.71% | |
61 Neutral | $39.08B | 24.38 | 20.79% | ― | 5.76% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $19.55B | -63.13 | -1.97% | 3.99% | 2.14% | 91.93% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NBIX
Neurocrine
178.24
44.73
33.50%
RDY
Dr Reddy's Laboratories
14.12
-0.57
-3.85%
VTRS
Viatris
16.66
7.78
87.61%
PCRX
Pacira Pharmaceuticals
25.52
2.35
10.14%
TEVA
Teva Pharmaceutical
33.24
16.53
98.92%
AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals
18.88
-3.56
-15.86%
Neurocrine Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Neurocrine Shareholders Reelect Directors and Approve Governance Measures
Positive
May 28, 2026
At its Annual Meeting on May 27, 2026, Neurocrine stockholders elected three Class III directors—Kevin C. Gorman, Gary A. Lyons and Johanna Mercier—to new three-year terms ending with the 2029 shareholder meeting, while existing Class ...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Neurocrine Closes Soleno Deal, Expands Rare Disease Portfolio
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 18, 2026, Neurocrine Biosciences completed its $2.9 billion cash acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics, following a tender offer that closed on May 15 with 88.9% of Soleno shares validly tendered, and subsequently merged Soleno into a wholly o...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Neurocrine to Acquire Soleno, Expanding Rare Disease Portfolio
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 5, 2026, Neurocrine agreed to acquire Soleno Therapeutics via a cash tender offer at $53 per share, valuing the deal at about $2.9 billion and representing sizable premiums to Soleno’s recent trading levels. The transaction, funded ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.