Neurocrine (NBIX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 42.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 21.73%
• EPS Growth: -19.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 98,965,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 998,076
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,344,148
• PEG Ratio: 1.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.87
• 1Y Price Target: $160.25
• Price Target Upside: 28.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $133.00 ▲(6.39%Upside)

Neurocrine's stock score reflects its strong financial performance and promising developments in R&D, tempered by valuation concerns and operational challenges. While the company's financial stability and growth potential are significant strengths, high P/E ratio and reimbursement challenges pose risks. The technical analysis suggests mixed signals, indicating potential volatility.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

The clinical profile for NBI-568 is viewed positively, boosting confidence in progressing to Phase 3 trials.

New Patient Starts

Record new patient starts were attributed to the sales force expansion pull-through and improving formulary access.

Sales Performance

Investors will be highly pleased with 1Q25 Ingrezza sales of $545M, which exceeded expectations.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Non-GAAP EPS of $0.70 was below consensus due to higher-than-expected spending.

Growth Challenges

The Ingrezza growth debate - slower but still robust: NBIX reaffirmed 2025 Ingrezza growth of +8-12% due to a higher base effect, increased competitive pressure, payer-related challenges, and sales force expansion & disruption.

Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. The company's portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids, as well as clinical programs in various therapeutic areas. Its lead asset is INGREZZA, a VMAT2 inhibitor for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia. The company's commercial products include ONGENTYS, a catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitor used as an adjunct therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors for patients with Parkinson's disease; ORILISSA for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women; and ORIAHNN, a non-surgical oral medication option for the management of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in pre-menopausal women. Its product candidates in clinical development include NBI-921352 for treating pediatric patients, as well as adult focal epilepsy indications; and NBI-827104 to treat rare pediatric epilepsy and essential tremor. The company's products in clinical development also comprise NBI-1065845 for the treatment of major depressive disorder; NBI-1065846 for treating anhedonia in major depressive disorder; and NBI-118568 for the treatment of schizophrenia. It has license and collaboration agreements with Heptares Therapeutics Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals Ltd; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; BIAL Portela & Ca, S.A.; Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Neurocrine Biosciences generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commercialized products, with INGREZZA being the primary driver of its revenues due to its position as a leading treatment for tardive dyskinesia. The company also earns income from collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments, royalties, and research and development funding. Neurocrine's strategic partnerships, such as those with AbbVie for the commercialization of ORILISSA (elagolix) for endometriosis and with Voyager Therapeutics for gene therapy research, further contribute to its earnings by expanding its product offerings and enhancing its research capabilities. Additionally, ongoing investments in research and development are aimed at maintaining a strong pipeline of potential new therapies, which can eventually lead to new revenue streams as these candidates are commercialized.

Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Neurocrine demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage and a strong equity base, though there is room for improvement in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Neurocrine's income statement shows strong growth and profitability. The revenue has increased significantly over the years, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 2.43% compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin has consistently remained above 98%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin for the TTM is 12.67%, showcasing solid profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly declined compared to the annual figures, suggesting a need for operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Neurocrine reflects a healthy financial position with a strong equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.18, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity (ROE) is 12.06% for the TTM, suggesting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is robust at 68.76%, demonstrating a solid capital structure. Overall, the company maintains a stable balance sheet with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Neurocrine's cash flow statement reveals positive cash generation with a TTM free cash flow of $492.2 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.73, indicating strong cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow has decreased from the previous year, showing a decline in free cash flow growth rate. The company needs to focus on enhancing its free cash flow generation for improved financial flexibility.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.41B	2.36B	1.89B	1.49B	1.13B	1.05B
	Gross Profit
2.37B	2.32B	1.85B	1.47B	1.12B	1.04B
	EBIT
497.30M	570.50M	250.90M	249.00M	196.90M	318.90M
	EBITDA
539.80M	639.70M	358.00M	264.60M	218.70M	336.10M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
305.80M	341.30M	249.70M	154.50M	89.60M	407.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
943.50M	1.08B	1.03B	989.30M	711.30M	801.00M
	Total Assets
3.69B	3.72B	3.25B	2.37B	2.07B	1.73B
	Total Debt
447.50M	455.10M	428.40M	262.90M	440.40M	412.30M
	Net Debt
253.40M	222.10M	177.30M	0.00	99.60M	-388.70M
	Total Liabilities
1.15B	1.13B	1.02B	660.90M	698.50M	608.50M
	Stockholders Equity
2.54B	2.59B	2.23B	1.71B	1.37B	1.13B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
492.20M	557.20M	361.60M	322.90M	233.10M	217.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
529.90M	595.40M	389.90M	339.40M	256.50M	228.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
-57.60M	-126.80M	-467.10M	-177.10M	-130.20M	4.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-674.50M	-486.70M	65.30M	-234.30M	27.40M	-157.80M

Neurocrine Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 125.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 125.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 123.15, above the 50-day MA of 112.31, and above the 200-day MA of 121.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBIX.

Neurocrine Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RDY	77 Outperform	$13.11B	19.84	18.36%	0.60%	13.26%	1.33%
NBIX	74 Outperform	$12.29B	42.39	12.43%	―	21.73%	-19.24%
PRGO	63 Neutral	$3.79B	―	-3.64%	4.26%	-4.85%	-4290.31%
ITCI	63 Neutral	$14.05B	―	-8.58%	―	46.62%	50.50%
TEVA	57 Neutral	$19.97B	―	-18.98%	―	3.38%	-175.90%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.31	-45.11%	3.29%	16.82%	0.04%
VTRS	53 Neutral	$10.61B	―	-21.25%	5.34%	-6.88%	-6809.78%

Neurocrine Corporate Events

Neurocrine Announces Leadership Transition with New CMO

Neurocrine has announced a leadership transition with Sanjay Keswani, M.D. set to succeed Eiry W. Roberts, M.D. as Chief Medical Officer effective June 2, 2025. Dr. Roberts, who has served in the role for seven years, will continue with the company as a Strategic Advisor to the CEO until the end of 2025. The transition involves an amended employment agreement for Dr. Roberts, maintaining her salary and bonus eligibility while ensuring her equity awards continue to vest.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIX) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Neurocrine stock, see the NBIX Stock Forecast page.

Neurocrine Holds Annual Meeting, Approves Key Matters

On May 21, 2025, Neurocrine held its Annual Meeting where stockholders voted on several key matters. The election of four Class II Directors was confirmed, and the compensation for named executive officers was approved. Additionally, the 2025 Plan and the Amended and Restated ESPP were sanctioned, and Ernst & Young LLP’s appointment as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIX) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Neurocrine stock, see the NBIX Stock Forecast page.

Neurocrine Biosciences Appoints Dr. Keswani as CMO

Neurocrine Biosciences announced the appointment of Dr. Sanjay Keswani as Chief Medical Officer effective June 2, 2025, succeeding Dr. Eiry W. Roberts, who will remain as a strategic advisor. Dr. Keswani brings over 20 years of pharmaceutical industry experience and will lead clinical development and medical affairs, enhancing the company’s capabilities as it explores new therapeutic modalities.