Neurocrine (NBIX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.23B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 777.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 45.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 21.73%
• EPS Growth: -19.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 98,965,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 766,323
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 777,334
• PEG Ratio: -4.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.63
• 1Y Price Target: $162.95
• Price Target Upside: 23.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $153.00 ▲(16.23%Upside)

Neurocrine's strong financial performance and encouraging earnings call, highlighting growth in patient starts and R&D advancements, are significant positives. However, the technical analysis shows overbought conditions, and the high P/E ratio suggests valuation concerns. The combination of these factors results in a moderately strong overall stock score.

Positive Factors

Growth Opportunity

Crenessity has shown strong uptake with a high reimbursement rate, suggesting a significant opportunity in the CAH market.

Market Position

Ingrezza remains the market leader for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia and is poised to generate significant sales, providing stable cash flow into 2038.

Product Launch

The launch of Crenessity, NBIX's second commercial product, is expected to beat expectations and drive growth for the company.

Negative Factors

Growth Concerns

Despite its attractive growth profile, Neurocrine Biosciences trades at a discount to peers reflecting concerns on the company's growth outlook into the next decade.

Pricing Pressure

Expansion of Part D formulary coverage is expected to worsen gross to net quarter over quarter.

Regulatory Risks

Safety, clinical, regulatory, competition, and financing are all risks inherent to commercial stage biotechs including NBIX.

Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the development and commercialization of innovative treatments for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in San Diego, California, the company is committed to addressing unmet medical needs through its proprietary drug discovery platform and a robust pipeline of therapeutic candidates. Neurocrine's flagship product is INGREZZA (valbenazine), the first FDA-approved medication for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia, a movement disorder. Additionally, the company has other products and candidates targeting conditions such as Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and congenital adrenal hyperplasia.

How the Company Makes Money

Neurocrine Biosciences generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commercialized products, with INGREZZA being the primary driver of its revenues due to its position as a leading treatment for tardive dyskinesia. The company also earns income from collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments, royalties, and research and development funding. Neurocrine's strategic partnerships, such as those with AbbVie for the commercialization of ORILISSA (elagolix) for endometriosis and with Voyager Therapeutics for gene therapy research, further contribute to its earnings by expanding its product offerings and enhancing its research capabilities. Additionally, ongoing investments in research and development are aimed at maintaining a strong pipeline of potential new therapies, which can eventually lead to new revenue streams as these candidates are commercialized.

Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Neurocrine demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage and strong equity, while cash flows are positive but require focus on free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Neurocrine's income statement shows strong growth and profitability. The revenue has increased significantly over the years, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 2.43% compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin has consistently remained above 98%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin for the TTM is 12.67%, showcasing solid profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly declined compared to the annual figures, suggesting a need for operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Neurocrine reflects a healthy financial position with a strong equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.18, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity (ROE) is 12.06% for the TTM, suggesting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is robust at 68.76%, demonstrating a solid capital structure. Overall, the company maintains a stable balance sheet with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Neurocrine's cash flow statement reveals positive cash generation with a TTM free cash flow of $492.2 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.73, indicating strong cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow has decreased from the previous year, showing a decline in free cash flow growth rate. The company needs to focus on enhancing its free cash flow generation for improved financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.36B	1.89B	1.49B	1.13B	1.05B
Gross Profit	2.32B	1.85B	1.47B	1.12B	1.04B
EBITDA	639.70M	358.00M	264.60M	218.70M	336.10M
Net Income	341.30M	249.70M	154.50M	89.60M	407.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.72B	3.25B	2.37B	2.07B	1.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.08B	1.03B	989.30M	711.30M	801.00M
Total Debt	455.10M	428.40M	262.90M	440.40M	412.30M
Total Liabilities	1.13B	1.02B	660.90M	698.50M	608.50M
Stockholders Equity	2.59B	2.23B	1.71B	1.37B	1.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	557.20M	361.60M	322.90M	233.10M	217.60M
Operating Cash Flow	595.40M	389.90M	339.40M	256.50M	228.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-126.80M	-467.10M	-177.10M	-130.20M	4.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-486.70M	65.30M	-234.30M	27.40M	-157.80M

Neurocrine Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 131.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 131.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.93, above the 50-day MA of 126.55, and above the 200-day MA of 122.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBIX.

Neurocrine Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NBIX	77 Outperform	$13.23B	45.32	12.43%	―	21.73%	-19.24%
RDY	71 Outperform	$12.20B	18.26	18.36%	0.03%	13.03%	-0.49%
PRGO	63 Neutral	$3.87B	―	-3.64%	4.03%	-4.85%	-4290.31%
TEVA	55 Neutral	$19.15B	―	-18.98%	―	3.38%	-175.90%
VTRS	54 Neutral	$11.00B	―	-21.25%	5.12%	-6.88%	-6809.78%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.60B	0.10	-62.94%	2.08%	16.16%	0.34%

Neurocrine Corporate Events

Neurocrine Announces Leadership Transition with New CMO

Neurocrine has announced a leadership transition with Sanjay Keswani, M.D. set to succeed Eiry W. Roberts, M.D. as Chief Medical Officer effective June 2, 2025. Dr. Roberts, who has served in the role for seven years, will continue with the company as a Strategic Advisor to the CEO until the end of 2025. The transition involves an amended employment agreement for Dr. Roberts, maintaining her salary and bonus eligibility while ensuring her equity awards continue to vest.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIX) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Neurocrine stock, see the NBIX Stock Forecast page.

Neurocrine Holds Annual Meeting, Approves Key Matters

On May 21, 2025, Neurocrine held its Annual Meeting where stockholders voted on several key matters. The election of four Class II Directors was confirmed, and the compensation for named executive officers was approved. Additionally, the 2025 Plan and the Amended and Restated ESPP were sanctioned, and Ernst & Young LLP’s appointment as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIX) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Neurocrine stock, see the NBIX Stock Forecast page.