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Maxlinear Inc (MXL)
NASDAQ:MXL
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Maxlinear
(NASDAQ:MXL)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(2.41% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by improving outlook from the latest earnings call (growth drivers, margin guidance, and stronger non-GAAP profitability/cash generation). This is offset by weaker underlying financial performance (multi-year GAAP losses and compressed equity), with technicals showing only neutral-to-soft near-term momentum and valuation constrained by negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Product ramps & design wins
Design wins with hyperscalers and multiple product ramps create multi-year revenue visibility in higher-growth data center and optical markets. Successful execution of Keystone/Rushmore/Panther reduces reliance on cyclical broadband demand and supports structural revenue diversification over the next several quarters.
High gross margins & improving mix
Sustained gross margins near ~58-60% reflect durable product-level profitability and favorable mix shift to infrastructure/optical. Higher gross margins provide a structural buffer to absorb R&D and SG&A investments, improving the odds of reaching sustained operating profitability as infrastructure revenue scales.
Lower leverage (reduced debt)
Material debt reduction meaningfully lowers financial leverage and interest burden, increasing strategic flexibility. With manageable leverage, the company can better fund multi-quarter product ramps, pursue targeted investments or opportunistic buybacks, and withstand cyclical industry downturns without near-term refinancing pressure.
Negative Factors
Sustained GAAP losses
Persistent GAAP operating and net losses erode equity and limit internal funding for growth. Continued negative GAAP results increase the risk of further non-cash charges, constrain investment in commercialization and R&D, and may force reliance on external capital if non-GAAP improvements don't convert to GAAP profitability.
Weak, volatile cash generation
Cash flow has been highly volatile, with a sharp deterioration in 2024 and only modest recovery in 2025. Limited and inconsistent free cash generation reduces self-funding capacity for sustained product ramps, raises refinancing risk if losses continue, and constrains ability to scale investments without external funding.
Supply-chain & inventory risks
Elevated inventory days and long optical lead times increase working-capital strain and execution risk for ongoing ramps. If demand shifts or component lead times persist, the company may face excess inventory write-downs or shipment delays, both of which can erode margins and lengthen the path to stable profitability.
Maxlinear (MXL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.16
Revenue Growth7.53%
EPS Growth22.97%
CountryUS
Employees1,294
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding86,451,150
10 Day Avg. Volume1,156,888
30 Day Avg. Volume1,202,097
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)3.34
Price to Sales (P/S)3.23
P/FCF Ratio214.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-19.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.79Price Target Upside16.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$562.83M
Maxlinear Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMaxLinear, Inc. provides radiofrequency (RF), high-performance analog, and mixed-signal communications systems-on-chip solutions (SoCs) for the connected home, wired and wireless infrastructure, and industrial and multi-market applications worldwide. Its products integrate various portions of a high-speed communication system, including RF, high-performance analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, security engines, data compression, networking layers, and power management. The company offers broadband radio transceiver front ends, data converters, embedded systems and software architecture, and architecture and system design for highly integrated end-to-end communication platform solutions. Its products are used in various electronic devices, such as cable data over cable service interface specifications (DOCSIS), fiber and DSL broadband modems and gateways; Wi-Fi and wireline routers for home networking; radio transceivers and modems for 4G/5G base-station and backhaul infrastructure; and fiber-optic modules for data center, metro, and long-haul transport networks, as well as power management and interface products. It serves electronics distributors, module makers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and original design manufacturers (ODMs) through a direct sales force, third-party sales representatives, and a network of distributors. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyMaxLinear generates revenue primarily through the sale of its semiconductor products, which are incorporated into various electronic devices and systems. The company's key revenue streams include broadband communications ICs, which are used extensively in cable modems and gateways, and data center solutions that support high-speed data transmission. Additionally, MaxLinear earns revenue from broadcast video processing solutions and other mixed-signal products. Significant partnerships with major telecommunications and technology firms enhance its market reach and sales potential, while ongoing innovation in RF and mixed-signal technology positions the company favorably in a competitive landscape. The diversification of its product offerings allows MaxLinear to cater to multiple sectors, thus stabilizing its revenue across varying market conditions.
Maxlinear Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong positive operational and financial momentum: high single- to double-digit revenue growth (30% FY, 48% Q4 YoY), robust infrastructure and optical ramps (Keystone guidance $100M–$130M in 2026), improved non-GAAP profitability and cash generation, and active share repurchases. Key risks discussed include a Q4 GAAP operating loss driven by sizable non-cash adjustments, expected weakness in broadband/cable revenue for 2026, supply-chain lead-time risks in optical, and elevated inventory days. On balance, the company presented multiple clear growth drivers and improving margins that outweigh the noted headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $136.4M, up 8% sequentially and up 48% year-over-year (Q4 2024: $92.2M). For the full year 2025, revenue grew ~30% year-over-year.
Infrastructure Business Momentum
Infrastructure revenue approximately $47M in Q4 and grew ~76% YoY in Q4; company expects infrastructure to become the largest revenue contributor in 2026. Keystone PAM4 DSP is forecast to generate about $100M–$130M in 2026 with potential upside.
Product Ramps and Design Wins (Data Center & Storage)
Keystone PAM4 DSP ramping in major hyperscalers (400G/800G); Rushmore (next-gen PAM4/1.6T products) expected to start production revenue end of 2026. Panther storage accelerator sampling (Panther 5) and management expects accelerator revenue to at least double in 2026 vs 2025.
High Gross Margins and Improving Mix
Q4 GAAP gross margin ~57.6% and non-GAAP gross margin ~59.6%. Management cites improving product mix (infrastructure higher-margin) and multi-quarter margin improvement trend.
Profitability on Non-GAAP Basis and Cash Generation
Q4 non-GAAP operating income was ~16% of revenue; GAAP operating loss was (11)% (see lowlights for GAAP adjustments). Q4 net cash from operating activities was ~$10.4M and cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at quarter end was ~$101.4M.
Share Repurchases and Board Confidence
Repurchased ~$20M of common stock in Q4 under a $75M authorization, signaling management/board confidence in cash flow and outlook.
Operational Improvements (Working Capital)
Days sales outstanding improved to ~31 days; inventory decreased by ~$8M QoQ and days of inventory improved to ~130 days despite long lead times in certain optical supply chains.
Q1 2026 Guidance and Visibility
Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $130M–$140M; Q1 GAAP gross margin expected 56%–59% and non-GAAP gross margin 58%–61%. Management reports robust bookings and backlog with improved visibility into early 2026 ramps.
Negative Updates
GAAP Operating Loss and Large Non-Cash Adjustments
Q4 GAAP loss from operations was (11)% of revenue while non-GAAP was +16%; significant deltas driven by ~ $28.1M of stock-based compensation and performance equity accruals, ~$6M of acquisition-related costs and ~$2.6M of acquisition-related intangible amortization impacting GAAP results.
Broadband / Cable Revenue Headwinds
Management expects broadband (cable/DOCSIS) revenue to be down in 2026 overall due to a seasonal soft first half and industry transition ahead of a multi-year DOCSIS 4 upgrade cycle starting late 2026.
Supply Chain and Lead-Time Risks
Optical supply chains face long lead times (management cited ~28-week lead times) and some tightness; while not currently a major constraint per management, supply risk remains a downside factor for optical ramps.
Inventory Days Still Elevated
Although inventory fell ~$8M QoQ, days of inventory remain around ~130 days, which is elevated and could pressure working capital if product mix or demand shifts.
Exposure to FX and Other Expense Volatility
Q1 non-GAAP interest and other expense guidance carries FX volatility as a primary risk; management highlighted this as a potential headwind to quarter-to-quarter results.
Competitive Positioning Challenges
CEO noted MaxLinear entered some markets later (#3 in U.S. timing) and acknowledged incumbency advantages among competitors; winning share will require continued execution across product ramps.
Company Guidance
For Q1 2026, MaxLinear guided revenue of $130 million to $140 million, calling for growth from infrastructure offset by seasonal declines in broadband, connectivity and industrial multimarket. They expect GAAP gross margin of approximately 56%–59% and non‑GAAP gross margin of approximately 58%–61%; GAAP operating expenses of $85 million–$90 million and non‑GAAP operating expenses of $58 million–$64 million; GAAP interest and other expense of roughly $2.1 million–$2.7 million and non‑GAAP interest and other of about $2.0 million–$2.6 million (FX volatility cited as the primary risk). Tax guidance was a GAAP tax provision of ~$4.0 million and a non‑GAAP tax provision of ~$0.8 million, with an expected basic share count of ~88 million and diluted share count of ~91 million, and management noted they do not provide a reconciliation of non‑GAAP guidance due to uncertainty around stock‑based compensation and potential impairments.Maxlinear Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Results are mixed. Revenue stabilized and rebounded in 2025, and debt has been reduced materially, but operating performance remains weak with sustained GAAP losses and equity erosion. Cash flow improved back to modestly positive in 2025, yet remains small relative to ongoing losses.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded in 2025 (annual) to $468M (+10.5% YoY), but the broader trajectory is down sharply from 2022’s $1.12B and 2023–2024 declines. Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully: gross profit remains solid in dollars, yet operating results are deeply negative (2025 operating loss of $127M; 2024 even worse), and net losses widened to $137M in 2025 after a very large loss in 2024. The key strength is that sales stabilized in 2025, but the main weakness is the sustained inability to translate revenue into operating earnings since 2023.38
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a relative support: debt has been reduced steadily from $393M (2020) to $136M (2025), lowering financial risk. However, equity has also compressed from ~$676M (2022) to $452M (2025), reflecting cumulative losses, and total assets have trended down versus 2022–2023. Overall leverage looks manageable, but continued losses are eroding the equity cushion.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened materially versus the 2022 peak (operating cash flow $389M and free cash flow $347M). Since then, results have been volatile: 2024 turned negative (operating cash flow -$45M; free cash flow -$63M), while 2025 returned to modestly positive free cash flow (~$20M) but with a steep year-over-year decline versus the prior positive periods. The positive in 2025 is a return to cash generation; the key risk is that cash flow remains small relative to ongoing net losses, suggesting limited self-funding capacity if losses persist.44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 467.64M | 360.53M | 693.26M | 1.12B | 892.40M |
| Gross Profit | 265.81M | 192.42M | 382.78M | 637.81M | 472.20M |
| EBITDA | -58.37M | -181.69M | 9.53M | 255.86M | 145.27M |
| Net Income | -136.68M | -245.20M | -73.15M | 125.04M | 41.97M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 796.40M | 866.88M | 1.08B | 1.19B | 1.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 74.22M | 119.58M | 188.34M | 206.86M | 130.68M |
| Total Debt | 157.34M | 149.36M | 157.75M | 155.60M | 339.68M |
| Total Liabilities | 344.50M | 350.60M | 397.80M | 509.77M | 563.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 451.89M | 516.28M | 686.26M | 676.38M | 489.20M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.02M | -62.98M | 11.59M | 347.47M | 129.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.62M | -45.30M | 25.05M | 388.73M | 168.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.80M | -23.45M | -15.94M | -91.76M | -91.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.66M | 1.29M | -8.03M | -240.40M | -91.90M |
Maxlinear Technical Analysis
Positive
19.53
Price Trends
18.38
Positive
16.98
Positive
15.58
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
57.76
Neutral
87.46
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MXL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.64, above the 50-day MA of 18.38, and above the 200-day MA of 15.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.46 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MXL.
Maxlinear Risk Analysis
Maxlinear disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maxlinear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Maxlinear Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.29B | 16.95 | 11.89% | ― | -2.04% | 8.84% | |
69 Neutral | $1.35B | 30.65 | 4.95% | 4.48% | -3.62% | -20.33% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $2.03B | 40.54 | 6.12% | ― | -3.90% | -41.66% | |
55 Neutral | $1.69B | ― | -28.23% | ― | 7.53% | 22.97% | |
55 Neutral | $2.86B | -58.87 | -19.18% | ― | 12.05% | 14.24% | |
48 Neutral | $1.91B | -12.98 | -33.25% | ― | -38.06% | -50.14% |
* Technology Sector Average
MXL
Maxlinear
19.53
2.70
16.04%
HIMX
Himax Technologies
7.72
-2.63
-25.41%
PLAB
Photronics
38.80
16.53
74.23%
VECO
Veeco
33.61
8.94
36.24%
LASR
nLIGHT
52.28
41.94
405.61%
NVTS
Navitas Semiconductor
8.30
4.97
149.25%
Maxlinear Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
MaxLinear Announces $75 Million Share Buyback Plan
Positive
Nov 24, 2025
On November 20, 2025, MaxLinear, Inc.’s board of directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to $75 million of its common stock by November 20, 2028. This initiative reflects the company’s confidence in its long-term growth prospects and commitment to enhancing stockholder value, as it continues to focus on expanding its product offerings in data center optical interconnects, wireless infrastructure, and other key areas.
The most recent analyst rating on (MXL) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Maxlinear stock, see the MXL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.