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Maxlinear (MXL)
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Maxlinear (MXL) AI Stock Analysis

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MXL

Maxlinear

(NASDAQ:MXL)

Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(7.46%Upside)
MaxLinear's stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including declining revenues and negative profitability. Nonetheless, positive technical indicators and an optimistic earnings call outlook support a moderate overall score. Continued focus on strategic growth and operational improvements is essential for future performance.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
MaxLinear reported solid results and even stronger guidance as the company benefits from strength across its strategic growth markets.
Product Development
The infrastructure business is performing very well with new products gaining momentum in optical interconnects, storage accelerators, and wireless infrastructure.
Negative Factors
Market Challenges
Industrial was perhaps the biggest disappointment with a -30% QOQ decline versus expectations for +50% QOQ growth, particularly affected by pricing pressures in China.
Operational Costs
Despite the now higher expected revenue, it is not translating into meaningfully higher EPS in 2025/26 due to slightly higher OpEx and FX related expenses.

Maxlinear (MXL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Maxlinear Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMaxLinear, Inc. provides radiofrequency (RF), high-performance analog, and mixed-signal communications systems-on-chip solutions (SoCs) for the connected home, wired and wireless infrastructure, and industrial and multi-market applications worldwide. Its products integrate various portions of a high-speed communication system, including RF, high-performance analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, security engines, data compression, networking layers, and power management. The company offers broadband radio transceiver front ends, data converters, embedded systems and software architecture, and architecture and system design for highly integrated end-to-end communication platform solutions. Its products are used in various electronic devices, such as cable data over cable service interface specifications (DOCSIS), fiber and DSL broadband modems and gateways; Wi-Fi and wireline routers for home networking; radio transceivers and modems for 4G/5G base-station and backhaul infrastructure; and fiber-optic modules for data center, metro, and long-haul transport networks, as well as power management and interface products. It serves electronics distributors, module makers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and original design manufacturers (ODMs) through a direct sales force, third-party sales representatives, and a network of distributors. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyMaxLinear generates revenue primarily through the sale of its semiconductor products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and original design manufacturers (ODMs) who incorporate these components into their systems. The company focuses on markets such as broadband, connectivity, and infrastructure, providing solutions for cable and satellite broadband, wireless infrastructure, and data center environments. Key revenue streams include sales from RF transceivers and tuners, power management solutions, and high-speed connectivity products. Additionally, MaxLinear benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with leading technology firms, which help to expand its market reach and drive innovation in its product offerings.

Maxlinear Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.26%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
MaxLinear's earnings call for Q1 2025 reflected a positive trajectory with strong revenue growth, improved non-GAAP margins, and significant product development achievements, particularly in data center and PON markets. However, challenges remain with operational losses, cash flow issues, and geopolitical risks impacting the outlook. Overall, the highlights and strategic progress indicate a focus on recovery and growth, with a cautiously optimistic view for the remainder of the year.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeding Revenue Guidance
MaxLinear reported Q1 2025 revenue of $95.9 million, surpassing the midpoint of their guidance. This represents growth from the previous quarter's $92.2 million.
Positive Non-GAAP Margins
The company achieved a non-GAAP gross margin of 59.1% in Q1 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency.
Infrastructure Revenue Growth
Infrastructure revenue for Q1 2025 was approximately $27 million, with expectations for growth across all end markets in Q2.
Significant Progress in Product Development
MaxLinear highlighted advancements in high-speed data center interconnects, PON, Wi-Fi, and Ethernet, with expectations for strong growth in 2025 and 2026.
Strong Product Traction in Optical DSP
The Keystone PAM4 DSP product showcased at the Optical Fiber Conference demonstrated a wide array of applications, with expectations for revenue growth in 2026.
Positive Cash Flow Outlook
The company expects to generate positive free cash flow in Q2 2025, marking a return to profitability.
Negative Updates
Loss from Operations
GAAP loss from operations for Q1 2025 was 48% of net revenue, highlighting ongoing financial challenges.
Cash Flow Used in Operations
In Q1 2025, cash flow used in operating activities was approximately $11.4 million, though improvements are expected in Q2.
Tariff and Geopolitical Uncertainty
Uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade environments presents risks, particularly in the broadband market, which could impact customer demand.
Weakness in Industrial Markets
The company noted ongoing weakness in industrial markets with exposure to China, affecting demand dynamics.
Company Guidance
During the MaxLinear, Inc. first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance for the second quarter, anticipating revenue between $95 million and $115 million. The GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be in the range of 57.5% to 59.5% of revenue. Operating expenses on a GAAP basis are projected between $92 million and $98 million, while non-GAAP operating expenses are forecasted between $55 million to $61 million. The company also expects GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other expenses to be between $2 million and $3 million, with a GAAP tax expense of $2.4 million and a non-GAAP tax rate of 10.5%. The diluted share count is anticipated to be approximately 87.0 million to 87.5 million shares. MaxLinear expressed confidence in continuing growth and recovery throughout 2025, driven by innovation in strategic applications such as high-speed interconnects, wireless infrastructure, storage, Ethernet, Wi-Fi, and fiber PON gateways.

Maxlinear Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MaxLinear faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability, and cash flow difficulties. Although the balance sheet remains stable, it shows increased leverage and decreasing equity, indicating a need for strategic improvement.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Maxlinear's financial performance shows a concerning trend with declining revenues and negative profitability. The TTM period saw a decrease in revenue and gross profit margins, and the net profit margin is significantly negative due to substantial net losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational challenges. This reflects a significant downturn compared to past performance.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows stability in terms of equity but highlights leverage concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, but the decline in stockholders' equity over time is notable. Despite these issues, the equity ratio remains reasonably strong, suggesting a stable asset base. However, the negative return on equity indicates profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows negative operating cash flows and free cash flows in the TTM period, highlighting liquidity pressures. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, exacerbating concerns about the company's ability to generate cash from operations amidst net losses. This poses risks to sustainability without a turnaround.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue360.53M693.26M1.12B892.40M478.60M
Gross Profit194.78M385.66M649.77M495.83M212.80M
EBITDA-173.70M9.53M255.86M145.27M-29.28M
Net Income-245.20M-73.15M125.04M41.97M-98.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets864.64M1.08B1.18B1.05B1.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments118.58M187.29M205.88M130.57M148.90M
Total Debt149.36M157.75M155.60M330.79M384.45M
Total Liabilities348.36M393.99M503.64M561.19M631.33M
Stockholders Equity516.28M686.26M676.38M489.20M391.12M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-68.74M23.56M336.29M121.48M58.31M
Operating Cash Flow-45.30M43.37M388.73M168.23M73.59M
Investing Cash Flow-23.45M-15.94M-91.76M-91.76M-175.29M
Financing Cash Flow1.29M-26.36M-240.40M-91.90M159.65M

Maxlinear Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price15.82
Price Trends
50DMA
13.80
Positive
100DMA
12.55
Positive
200DMA
14.90
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.82
Negative
RSI
54.31
Neutral
STOCH
36.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MXL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.59, above the 50-day MA of 13.80, and above the 200-day MA of 14.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MXL.

Maxlinear Risk Analysis

Maxlinear disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maxlinear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Maxlinear Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
$757.99M-2.55%3.57%-134.36%
64
Neutral
$620.99M16.964.72%4.87%-0.41%-46.38%
62
Neutral
$35.05B6.90-11.57%2.06%6.28%-15.90%
60
Neutral
$1.38B-37.97%-15.65%-7.18%
60
Neutral
$830.54M-9.87%-30.75%-3668.44%
59
Neutral
$675.23M-2.35%13.41%72.56%
57
Neutral
$1.11B38.78-19.47%14.28%-1644.64%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MXL
Maxlinear
15.82
3.35
26.86%
AOSL
Alpha and Omega
25.47
-9.34
-26.83%
IMOS
ChipMOS Technologies
16.96
-5.76
-25.35%
COHU
Cohu
17.86
-8.76
-32.91%
UCTT
Ultra Clean Holdings
22.52
-13.78
-37.96%
ICHR
Ichor Holdings
19.79
-9.28
-31.92%

Maxlinear Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MaxLinear’s 2025 Annual Meeting Key Decisions
Neutral
May 21, 2025

MaxLinear held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 20, 2025, where several key decisions were made. Daniel A. Artusi was re-elected as a Class I director, while the proposed executive officer compensation and amendment to the 2010 Equity Incentive Plan were not approved by stockholders. The appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (MXL) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Maxlinear stock, see the MXL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 26, 2025