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Maxlinear
(NASDAQ:MXL)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$95.00
▲(261.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
The score is driven primarily by a mixed financial foundation (improving revenue and solid gross margins, but still-weak profitability and only modest/volatile free cash flow). The earnings call meaningfully improves the outlook via strong growth, margin improvement and upbeat guidance/raised optical outlook, while valuation remains pressured by negative earnings and technicals are supportive but not strongly bullish.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & infrastructure ramp
Sustained, broad-based top-line expansion driven by infrastructure optics converts cyclical semiconductor exposure into a multi-quarter growth runway. The large optical backlog and raised 2026 optical outlook indicate durable revenue visibility from data-center ramps and recurring OEM platform adoption.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative profitability
Despite improving revenue and margins, recurring net losses and negative ROE undermine internal capital generation and retention of earnings. Continued reliance on external financing or equity compensation could constrain reinvestment and dilute returns until sustained profitability is achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & infrastructure ramp
Sustained, broad-based top-line expansion driven by infrastructure optics converts cyclical semiconductor exposure into a multi-quarter growth runway. The large optical backlog and raised 2026 optical outlook indicate durable revenue visibility from data-center ramps and recurring OEM platform adoption.
Read all positive factors
Maxlinear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue by Geography
Shows how sales are distributed across regions, highlighting exposure to major customers, local demand trends, currency moves and trade or regulatory risks. Growth concentrated in diversified or expanding geographies suggests upside, whereas reliance on one country or region raises vulnerability to economic slowdowns, supply‑chain disruptions or geopolitical issues.
Shows how sales are distributed across regions, highlighting exposure to major customers, local demand trends, currency moves and trade or regulatory risks. Growth concentrated in diversified or expanding geographies suggests upside, whereas reliance on one country or region raises vulnerability to economic slowdowns, supply‑chain disruptions or geopolitical issues.
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The Fly
The FlyMaxlinear (MXL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.77B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.61
Revenue Growth40.89%
EPS Growth42.62%
CountryUS
Employees1,115
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.18
Shares Outstanding89,545,960
10 Day Avg. Volume3,169,336
30 Day Avg. Volume3,526,674
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)3.34
Price to Sales (P/S)3.23
P/FCF Ratio214.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$100.63Price Target Upside283.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$657.19M
Maxlinear Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MaxLinear, Inc. provides communications systems-on-chip solutions in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. Its products integrate various portions of a high-speed communication system, including radio frequency, high-performance an...
How the Company Makes Money
MaxLinear makes money primarily by selling semiconductor ICs to equipment manufacturers (OEMs/ODMs) and platform providers that incorporate its chips into end products such as broadband gateways, cable and fiber access equipment, Wi‑Fi routers, Et...
Maxlinear Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong positive operational and financial momentum: robust revenue growth (Q2 revenue +55% YoY, +23% QoQ), infrastructure revenue up 145% YoY, improved gross margins (~59.5% non-GAAP) and a return to GAAP EPS positivity ($0.02). Management raised 2026 optical revenue expectations and provided confident Q3 guidance (midpoint non-GAAP gross margin ~60% and revenue $210M–$220M). Key technology wins (Keystone ramp, Rushmore sampling) and multiple design wins broaden the product footprint. Offsetting factors include rising purchase obligations and wafer prepayments, input cost pressures, elevated GAAP OpEx driven by stock compensation, modest operating cash generation this quarter, and execution/timing risk around next‑gen product ramps and potential customer concentration as volumes consolidate. On balance the positives—substantial top-line growth, margin expansion, strong product ramps and upgraded guidance—meaningfully outweigh the near-term risks and obligations.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total Q2 revenue of $168.8M, up 23% sequentially from $137.2M and up 55% year-over-year from $108.8M.
Negative Updates
Concentration and Customer Risk Emerging
Management indicated no single 10% customer in Q2 today but warned that as optical ramps concentrate volumes, a small number of customers or module makers could drive the majority of volumes over the next several quarters, increasing concentration risk.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Total Q2 revenue of $168.8M, up 23% sequentially from $137.2M and up 55% year-over-year from $108.8M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MaxLinear guided Q3 2026 revenue of $210–$220 million, GAAP gross margin of approximately 57%–60% and non‑GAAP gross margin of 58.5%–61.5% (management noted ~60% at the midpoint), GAAP operating expenses of $98–$104 million and non‑GAAP operating expenses of $66–$71 million, GAAP interest and other expense of $3.8–$4.2 million (non‑GAAP $3.7–$4.1 million), a GAAP tax provision of $1.5 million (non‑GAAP ≈$1.0 million), and GAAP and non‑GAAP diluted share counts of about 99 million; the company also raised its 2026 optical data‑center revenue outlook to $210–$230 million and emphasized continued infrastructure strength.Maxlinear Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 568.93M | 467.64M | 360.53M | 693.26M | 1.12B | 892.40M |
| Gross Profit | 326.65M | 265.81M | 192.42M | 382.78M | 637.81M | 472.20M |
| EBITDA | -47.86M | -58.37M | -181.69M | 9.53M | 255.86M | 145.27M |
| Net Income | -103.76M | -136.68M | -245.20M | -73.15M | 125.04M | 41.97M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 822.57M | 796.40M | 866.88M | 1.08B | 1.19B | 1.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 64.81M | 74.22M | 119.58M | 188.34M | 206.86M | 130.68M |
| Total Debt | 139.39M | 157.34M | 149.36M | 157.75M | 155.60M | 339.68M |
| Total Liabilities | 292.05M | 344.50M | 350.60M | 397.80M | 509.77M | 563.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 484.84M | 451.89M | 516.28M | 686.26M | 676.38M | 489.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.31M | 7.02M | -62.98M | 11.59M | 347.47M | 129.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.47M | 19.62M | -45.30M | 25.05M | 388.73M | 168.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.81M | -19.80M | -23.45M | -15.94M | -91.76M | -91.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.71M | -18.66M | 1.29M | -8.03M | -240.40M | -91.90M |
Maxlinear Technical Analysis
Positive
26.27
Price Trends
90.33
Positive
61.74
Positive
39.45
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.44
Positive
52.11
Neutral
66.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MXL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 92.19, below the 50-day MA of 90.33, and below the 200-day MA of 39.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MXL.
Maxlinear Risk Analysis
Maxlinear disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maxlinear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Maxlinear Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.84B | 11.33 | 13.39% | ― | 0.52% | 41.86% | |
67 Neutral | $3.33B | 138.85 | 2.64% | ― | -7.71% | -66.03% | |
67 Neutral | $4.09B | -241.96 | -5.40% | ― | 40.91% | 74.24% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $7.77B | -77.32 | -28.42% | ― | 40.89% | 42.62% | |
54 Neutral | $2.38B | 72.28 | 3.60% | 4.48% | -10.57% | -62.96% | |
46 Neutral | $3.00B | -19.08 | -32.99% | ― | -45.38% | -19.24% |
* Technology Sector Average
MXL
Maxlinear
91.24
73.99
428.93%
HIMX
Himax Technologies
13.27
3.86
41.01%
PLAB
Photronics
30.94
11.34
57.86%
VECO
Veeco
54.58
33.99
165.08%
LASR
nLIGHT
73.00
53.49
274.17%
NVTS
Navitas Semiconductor
12.03
3.05
33.96%
Maxlinear Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MaxLinear Shareholders Approve Equity Plan and ESPP Amendments
Positive
May 22, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 20, 2026, MaxLinear shareholders approved amendments to both the company’s 2010 Equity Incentive Plan and 2010 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, including a new ten-year term for the equity ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.