Matador Resources (MTDR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.65B
• Dividend Yield: 3.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 14.77%
• EPS Growth: -17.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 452
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 124,249,940
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,458,472
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,871,898
• PEG Ratio: -0.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.22
• 1Y Price Target: $58.50
• Price Target Upside: 6.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.49B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(10.89% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

MTDR scores well on financial performance and valuation, led by strong operating cash flow/free cash flow and a low P/E with a solid dividend. Technicals are constructive but somewhat stretched (near-overbought), while the latest earnings commentary and recent financing actions reinforce a disciplined, efficiency-focused plan with ongoing commodity and execution risks.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Operating cash flow consistently covers earnings (coverage ~2.3x) and free cash flow was positive 2021–2025 with a sharp 2025 surge. Durable cash generation supports dividends, opportunistic buybacks, debt paydown and flexible capital allocation through commodity cycles.

Improving balance sheet and liquidity

Matador has meaningfully delevered (large paydown and leverage near 1x), maintained a strong borrowing base and expanded midstream credit availability. These actions extend maturities, preserve liquidity and increase financial flexibility through industry downturns or execution delays.

Sustained operational efficiency gains

Multi-year gains — lower D&C cost per foot, longer laterals, improved EURs and faster completion cycles — reduce break-evens and capital intensity. High produced-water usage cuts operating and completion costs, structurally improving returns across commodity cycles.

Negative Factors

Commodity-price sensitivity

Revenue and cash flow remain highly tied to volatile oil and gas prices despite hedges. A 50% oil hedge protects downside but leaves material price exposure; prolonged weak commodity markets would compress margins and limit reinvestment or shareholder returns.

Midstream value realization uncertainty

Midstream holds the promise of improving realizations and asset value, but planned drop-downs and monetizations rely on partner vehicles and timing outside management's full control. Delays or unfavorable terms could postpone cash returns and reduce anticipated long-term uplift.

Early-stage technical upside and modest near-term growth

Technical pilots and new-play tests offer upside but are early-stage and not reflected in guidance, so upside may take time to materialize. Management's deliberate focus on cash flow and modest production growth limits near-term volumetric expansion and relies on execution to unlock future reserves.

Matador Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. It operates through two segments, Exploration and Production; and Midstream. The company primarily holds interests in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. It also operates the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas; and the Haynesville shale and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana. In addition, the company conducts midstream operations in support of its exploration, development, and production operations; provides natural gas processing and oil transportation services; and offers oil, natural gas, and produced water gathering services, as well as produced water disposal services to third parties. As of December 31, 2021, its estimated total proved oil and natural gas reserves were 323.4 million barrels of oil equivalent, including 181.3 million stock tank barrels of oil and 852.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The company was formerly known as Matador Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Matador Resources Company in August 2011. Matador Resources Company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Matador Resources generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company sells its products to various customers, including large integrated oil companies, midstream companies, and other independent oil and gas producers. Key revenue streams include oil sales, natural gas sales, and NGL sales, with oil typically representing the majority of their revenue. Matador also benefits from favorable pricing conditions and operational efficiencies within its production processes. The company may engage in hedging strategies to protect against volatile commodity prices, which can stabilize cash flows. Additionally, partnerships with midstream companies for the transportation and processing of its hydrocarbons further enhance their revenue potential and operational capabilities.

Matador Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong cash generation and consistently positive free cash flow (with a sharp 2025 surge) support a solid financial profile. Profitability has remained healthy, and leverage has improved meaningfully versus 2020, but results show clear cyclicality with recently negative revenue growth and net income down from the 2022 peak.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong in the last several years, with net margins remaining solid (roughly 21%–40% from 2021–2025) and earnings staying positive after the 2020 loss. However, revenue growth has been volatile and has turned negative recently (2025 down ~3.4% after modest growth in 2024), and net income has stepped down from the 2022 peak—consistent with a more cyclical operating backdrop.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable today, with debt-to-equity improving meaningfully from 2020 (~1.46x) to 2025 (~0.37x) as equity expanded. Returns on equity remain positive (about 13% in 2025), but have cooled versus 2021–2023 levels, and the absolute debt load is still sizable (~$2.1B), which can matter in a weaker commodity-price environment.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow is consistently strong and more than covers earnings (coverage ~2.3x in 2024–2025). Free cash flow is positive across 2021–2025, with a sharp surge in 2025 (free cash flow up ~486% and matching operating cash flow), though free cash flow was relatively thin in 2023–2024 versus operating cash flow—suggesting variability likely tied to investment/spending levels.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.66B	3.48B	2.82B	3.06B	1.66B
Gross Profit	1.60B	1.54B	1.33B	1.88B	891.54M
EBITDA	2.45B	2.42B	1.93B	2.23B	1.14B
Net Income	759.22M	885.32M	846.07M	1.21B	584.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.87B	10.85B	7.73B	5.55B	4.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	79.48M	23.03M	52.66M	505.18M	48.13M
Total Debt	3.55B	2.11B	2.27B	1.23B	1.56B
Total Liabilities	5.88B	5.39B	3.60B	2.24B	2.13B
Stockholders Equity	5.66B	5.09B	3.91B	3.11B	1.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	241.64M	280.04M	318.02M	894.75M	319.88M
Operating Cash Flow	2.43B	2.25B	1.87B	1.98B	1.05B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.16B	-3.67B	-3.21B	-1.04B	-729.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-282.60M	1.41B	902.33M	-480.85M	-328.55M

Matador Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 55.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTDR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.35, above the 50-day MA of 45.16, and above the 200-day MA of 45.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTDR.

Matador Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTDR	78 Outperform	$6.65B	6.96	14.13%	3.14%	14.77%	-17.38%
MGY	75 Outperform	$5.33B	12.49	16.65%	2.74%	0.68%	-11.13%
CHRD	75 Outperform	$6.39B	120.54	0.53%	5.73%	8.43%	-86.63%
APA	74 Outperform	$11.25B	6.12	25.22%	3.80%	4.88%	-41.34%
CNX	66 Neutral	$5.97B	6.35	15.01%	―	43.30%	-43.07%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CRK	54 Neutral	$6.07B	17.04	16.07%	―	35.41%	―

Matador Resources Corporate Events

Matador Resources Refinances Debt with New 2034 Notes

On March 5, 2026, Matador Resources closed a $750 million private offering of 6.000% senior unsecured notes due 2034, receiving approximately $737.2 million in net proceeds under an indenture that includes typical high-yield covenants, change-of-control protections and detailed default provisions, with the notes guaranteed by certain subsidiaries and carrying a stepped optional redemption schedule from 2029.

In a parallel balance sheet move, Matador announced that its cash tender offer for any and all of its $500 million 6.875% senior notes due 2028 expired on March 4, 2026, with about 84% of those notes validly tendered for purchase and slated for cancellation, and the company intends to redeem the remaining 2028 notes on April 15, 2026, effectively refinancing higher-cost debt with longer-dated paper and extending its maturity profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.

Matador Resources Announces $750 Million Senior Notes Offering

On February 26, 2026, Matador Resources Company announced it had priced a private placement of $750 million in 6.000% senior unsecured notes due 2034 at par, with closing expected on March 5, 2026, subject to customary conditions. The notes will be sold only to qualified institutional buyers in the United States and certain non-U.S. investors under applicable securities law exemptions.

Matador plans to use most of the proceeds to repurchase the entire $500 million of its 6.875% senior notes due 2028 via a cash tender offer launched the same day, including related premiums, fees and expenses, and to repay borrowings under its credit facility. The transaction is set to extend the company’s debt maturity profile and is expected to reduce interest costs over time while also freeing up capacity under its bank credit facility, which may strengthen its balance sheet and financial flexibility for ongoing operations and future investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Hold with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.

Matador Resources Announces $750 Million Senior Notes Offering

On February 26, 2026, Matador Resources announced a proposed private placement of $750 million in senior unsecured notes due 2034 to eligible institutional purchasers. The company plans to use the proceeds primarily to fund a cash tender offer for all $500 million of its 6.875% senior notes due 2028, cover related premiums and fees, and repay borrowings under its credit facility.

Matador’s concurrent tender offer for the 2028 notes, launched the same day, is conditioned on the successful completion of the new notes offering and contemplates satisfying and discharging any 2028 notes that remain after the tender. Together, the transactions are aimed at extending the company’s debt maturity profile, reducing reliance on its credit facility and potentially improving its capital structure, with implications for its financial flexibility as it pursues ongoing oil and gas development and midstream operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.

Matador Resources Outlines 2026 Growth and Capital Plan

Matador Resources reported that 2025 was another record year, highlighted by record fourth-quarter production of 211,290 barrels of oil equivalent per day and year-end proved reserves of 667 million BOE, a 9% increase from 2024 with a 173% reserve replacement ratio and lower finding and development costs. The company also grew combined midstream Adjusted EBITDA to $332 million, expanded its Delaware Basin footprint by 17,500 net acres to about 212,500 net acres, strengthened its balance sheet by paying down roughly $200 million on its credit facility while repeatedly raising its dividend, and laid out a 2026 plan to grow oil output about 3% while cutting capital spending 11%, supported by drilling efficiency gains, a major new gas transportation deal to access higher-priced markets, and ongoing strategic options for its midstream assets.

Matador’s 2026 operating plan emphasizes improving capital efficiency through targeted drilling costs of about $795 per lateral foot and a 13% reduction in drill-and-complete cycle times. Management expects midstream Adjusted EBITDA to rise about 8% in 2026, sees further upside from the Hugh Brinson pipeline’s access to Henry Hub and LNG and AI-related demand centers, and aims to preserve a strong balance sheet with leverage of 1.1 times, ample liquidity and hedges covering roughly half of projected 2026 oil production.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.

Matador Resources Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signaling Confidence

On February 17, 2026, Matador Resources Company announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.375 per share on its common stock, payable on March 10, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026. This payout is being made under a dividend policy adopted in October 2025 and underscores the company’s current capacity and willingness to return cash to shareholders while signaling confidence in its financial position.

Future dividends will remain at the discretion of the board and will depend on Matador’s operating results, cash flows, balance sheet strength, capital needs and broader business and regulatory conditions. This framework indicates that while investors are now receiving a regular cash return, the level and continuity of future payouts will be closely tied to the company’s performance and industry conditions, preserving flexibility for capital allocation amid commodity price and regulatory uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.

Matador Resources Announces EVP Retirement and Advisory Role

On January 16, 2026, Matador Resources Company announced that G. Gregg Krug, its Executive Vice President – Marketing and Midstream Strategy, plans to retire at age 65 effective February 28, 2026, after nearly 14 years with the company, during which he played a key role in building its midstream business. Following his retirement, Krug will move into a Special Advisor role to the CEO and Executive Committee under an agreement dated January 21, 2026, running through December 31, 2026 with possible month-to-month extensions, ensuring continuity in midstream and marketing strategy through his ongoing advisory work, subject to confidentiality, non-competition and non-solicitation commitments.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.

Matador Resources Enhances Credit Facility and Liquidity

On December 9, 2025, Matador Resources announced a Seventh Amendment to its Credit Agreement, reaffirming its borrowing base at $3.25 billion and maintaining elected commitments at $2.25 billion. Additionally, Matador’s San Mateo Midstream, LLC received unanimous lender support to increase its revolving credit facility by $250 million to $1.10 billion, enhancing operational and financial flexibility. These developments reflect Matador’s commitment to debt repayment, capital efficiency, and operational growth, with a significant reduction in its debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio and increased liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTDR) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matador Resources stock, see the MTDR Stock Forecast page.