Match Group (MTCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.76B
• Dividend Yield: 0.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: -0.60%
• EPS Growth: -11.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 240,622,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,384,371
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,413,560
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.13
• 1Y Price Target: $39.44
• Price Target Upside: 1.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(5.83% Upside)

Match Group's overall stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and positive earnings call sentiment, particularly from Hinge's growth. However, financial stability risks due to high leverage and declining revenue growth weigh on the score. The valuation is fair, and the dividend yield adds a modest benefit.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Match Group produced a solid set of operational results with revenue ahead of its guided range.

Product Development

Early positive results from new features in the Tinder App, such as Double Date, are being highlighted.

Negative Factors

Profit Margins

The decline in adjusted operating income is attributed to increased marketing spending for Tinder and Hinge brand campaigns, impacting profit margins.

User Trends

Uncertainty on when Tinder payer trends inflect remains a key concern.

Match Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Match Group, Inc. provides dating products worldwide. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Pairs, PlentyOfFish, and OurTime, as well as a various other brands. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Match Group generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based business model. Users can access basic features for free, but the company offers premium subscription options that provide additional features such as ad-free experiences, advanced search capabilities, and 'super likes' to increase visibility on platforms like Tinder. These subscriptions are the main revenue stream for Match Group. Additionally, the company earns money through in-app purchases, where users can buy virtual goods and enhanced functionalities to improve their chances of making connections. Advertising also contributes to revenue, though to a lesser extent, as Match Group allows limited advertising on its platforms. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions have further expanded its market presence and user base, contributing to its earnings.

Match Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Match Group demonstrates strong cash flow generation, which is a positive indicator for liquidity. However, declining revenue growth and profitability margins, along with a highly leveraged balance sheet and negative equity, pose significant financial stability risks.

Income Statement

Match Group's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin around 71.8% in TTM, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 15.8% in TTM from 19.4% in 2023, reflecting reduced profitability. Revenue growth has been negative recently, with a -1% decline in TTM, suggesting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also slightly decreased, indicating pressure on operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning negative stockholders' equity, leading to a high and negative debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates financial instability and high leverage risk. Return on equity is negative, reflecting losses relative to equity. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a 14.5% growth in free cash flow in TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.64, suggesting efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 0.94, demonstrating good cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.45B	3.48B	3.36B	3.19B	2.98B	2.39B
Gross Profit	2.45B	2.49B	2.41B	2.23B	2.14B	1.76B
EBITDA	926.59M	951.63M	1.05B	662.79M	921.64M	794.51M
Net Income	537.81M	551.28M	651.54M	361.95M	277.72M	587.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.87B	4.47B	4.51B	4.18B	5.06B	3.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	340.42M	970.73M	868.64M	581.12M	827.20M	739.16M
Total Debt	3.43B	3.85B	3.96B	3.84B	3.93B	3.84B
Total Liabilities	4.10B	4.53B	4.53B	4.54B	5.26B	4.46B
Stockholders Equity	-230.88M	-63.66M	-19.55M	-359.88M	-203.77M	-1.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	907.64M	882.14M	829.38M	476.56M	832.53M	759.81M
Operating Cash Flow	956.61M	932.72M	896.79M	525.69M	912.50M	802.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-74.10M	-58.54M	-76.58M	-71.70M	-939.83M	-4.89B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.40B	-758.30M	-534.07M	-689.17M	111.11M	1.68B

Match Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 38.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.62, above the 50-day MA of 32.68, and above the 200-day MA of 31.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.62 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTCH.

Match Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WB	75 Outperform	$2.41B	7.47	10.80%	7.98%	0.86%	22.11%
OPRA	73 Outperform	$1.47B	22.30	9.18%	4.74%	26.71%	-23.67%
MOMO	71 Outperform	$1.29B	7.57	12.39%	―	-11.02%	-5.17%
MTCH	71 Outperform	$8.76B	17.94	-865.98%	0.98%	-0.60%	-11.05%
JOYY	64 Neutral	$2.62B	―	-2.48%	3.70%	-3.61%	-143.37%
Sector *	56 Neutral	C$4.26B	1.39	-13.88%	5.36%	-5.96%	-56.64%
SEAT	50 Neutral	$180.04M	25.25	-75.68%	―	-10.52%	-420.74%

Match Group Corporate Events

Match Group Announces $700M Senior Notes Offering

On August 6, 2025, Match Group, Inc. announced the pricing of a $700 million unregistered offering of senior notes by its subsidiary, Match Group Holdings II, LLC. The notes, due in 2033, are priced at par with a 6.125% interest rate and are offered to qualified institutional buyers and certain persons outside the U.S., with the offering expected to close on August 20, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.

Match Group Announces $700 Million Senior Notes Offering

On August 6, 2025, Match Group announced that its subsidiary, Match Group Holdings II, LLC, plans to offer $700 million in senior notes due 2033. The proceeds will be used to repay existing notes due in 2026 and for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.

Match Group Announces Cash Dividend and Q2 Results

On August 5, 2025, Match Group announced a cash dividend of $0.19 per share, payable on October 17, 2025. The company reported its second-quarter financial results, highlighting a successful phase in its transformation strategy with revenue and adjusted operating income surpassing expectations, excluding a legal settlement charge. The company is reinvesting $50 million in strategic initiatives and product development to enhance user experiences and drive long-term growth. Tinder and Hinge showed significant progress, with new features and geographic expansion plans, positioning Match Group for future success.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.

Match Group Stockholders Approve Key Governance Changes

On June 18, 2025, Match Group, a leading provider of dating products, held its annual stockholders meeting where several significant decisions were made. The stockholders approved an amendment to declassify the Board of Directors over a three-year period, which was part of the Fifth Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation. Additionally, they ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the company’s independent auditor for the fiscal year 2025, approved executive compensation for 2024, and endorsed the Amended and Restated 2024 Stock and Incentive Plan. These decisions reflect Match Group’s ongoing efforts to streamline governance and enhance shareholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.