Match Group (MTCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.99B
• Dividend Yield: 1.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.11M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: -0.46%
• EPS Growth: -2.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.62
• Shares Outstanding: 240,622,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,441,516
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,106,233
• PEG Ratio: -1.28
• Price to Book (P/B): -133.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.99
• 1Y Price Target: $38.00
• Price Target Upside: 16.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.49B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $35.00 ▲(7.20% Upside)

Match Group's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and cost management, offset by financial risks due to high leverage and negative equity. The valuation is reasonable, and while the earnings call highlighted strategic initiatives, challenges at Tinder and in Asia pose risks. Technical indicators suggest a neutral market sentiment, contributing to a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Hinge Revenue Growth

Hinge's strong revenue growth and international expansion indicate a successful strategy that enhances Match Group's market position and diversifies its revenue base.

Successful Cost Management

Effective cost management allows Match Group to reinvest in growth initiatives, supporting long-term operational efficiency and profitability.

Improved User Experience at Tinder

Enhancements in user experience drive engagement and retention, strengthening Tinder's competitive position and potential for revenue growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage and Negative Equity

High leverage and negative equity can limit financial flexibility and pose risks to stability, especially in volatile market conditions.

Tinder Revenue Decline

Declining revenue at Tinder, a key brand, suggests challenges in maintaining growth, potentially impacting overall company performance.

Challenges in Match Group Asia

Regulatory challenges in Asia, such as app blockages, hinder revenue growth and highlight geopolitical risks affecting regional operations.

Match Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Match Group, Inc. is a leading global provider of dating products and services, operating a diverse portfolio of popular online dating platforms. The company owns and operates several well-known brands, including Tinder, Match.com, OkCupid, Plenty of Fish, and Hinge, among others. With a focus on connecting singles worldwide, Match Group leverages technology to facilitate meaningful relationships through its various platforms, which cater to different demographics and relationship preferences.

How the Company Makes Money

Match Group generates revenue primarily through subscription services and in-app purchases. The company offers premium features and memberships for its dating apps, allowing users to access enhanced functionalities such as unlimited swipes, visibility boosts, and advanced profile controls. Tinder, one of its flagship products, employs a freemium model where users can access basic services for free while incentivizing them to purchase Tinder Plus, Tinder Gold, or Tinder Platinum subscriptions for additional benefits. Additionally, Match Group earns revenue from advertising on its platforms, though this is a smaller portion compared to subscription income. The company has also established strategic partnerships and collaborations, enhancing its service offerings and market reach, which contribute positively to its overall earnings.

Match Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Match Group exhibits strong revenue growth and efficient cost management, with a robust gross profit margin. However, the company faces challenges with high leverage and negative equity, which pose risks to financial stability. Cash flow generation is improving, but the financial structure requires careful management to ensure long-term stability.

Income Statement

Match Group shows a strong revenue growth trajectory with a TTM growth rate of 54.5%, indicating robust demand and market expansion. The gross profit margin remains healthy at over 71%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined from previous years, suggesting increased expenses or competitive pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, but slightly lower than historical highs, indicating room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage with a negative equity position, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio. This poses a risk of financial instability, especially in volatile market conditions. Return on equity is negative, highlighting challenges in generating shareholder value. Despite these concerns, the company maintains a stable asset base, which could support future growth if leverage is managed effectively.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a 6.06% growth in free cash flow TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting effective conversion of earnings into cash. However, the high leverage and negative equity position could strain future cash flows if not addressed.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.47B	3.48B	3.36B	3.19B	2.98B	2.39B
Gross Profit	2.51B	2.49B	2.41B	2.23B	2.14B	1.76B
EBITDA	937.96M	951.63M	1.05B	566.63M	428.04M	802.85M
Net Income	562.09M	551.28M	651.54M	361.95M	277.72M	162.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.54B	4.47B	4.51B	4.18B	5.06B	3.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	970.73M	868.64M	581.12M	827.20M	739.16M
Total Debt	4.05B	3.95B	3.84B	3.84B	3.93B	3.84B
Total Liabilities	4.77B	4.53B	4.53B	4.54B	5.26B	4.46B
Stockholders Equity	-223.94M	-63.66M	-19.55M	-359.88M	-203.77M	-1.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	962.64M	882.14M	829.38M	476.56M	832.53M	759.81M
Operating Cash Flow	1.01B	932.72M	896.79M	525.69M	912.50M	802.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-75.35M	-58.54M	-76.58M	-71.70M	-939.83M	-4.89B
Financing Cash Flow	-739.36M	-758.30M	-534.07M	-689.17M	111.11M	1.68B

Match Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 32.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTCH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 32.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.59, below the 50-day MA of 34.72, and above the 200-day MA of 32.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MTCH.

Match Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPRA	72 Outperform	$1.29B	15.84	8.73%	5.61%	30.00%	-9.72%
WB	66 Neutral	$2.64B	7.51	10.77%	7.74%	1.21%	14.72%
MTCH	63 Neutral	$7.99B	15.45	―	1.16%	-0.46%	-2.75%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
JOYY	59 Neutral	$3.06B	―	-2.32%	4.72%	-7.07%	-150.40%
MOMO	51 Neutral	$1.08B	10.21	7.65%	―	-7.33%	-34.16%
SEAT	45 Neutral	$122.46M	―	-51.54%	―	-16.83%	-485.31%

Match Group Corporate Events

Match Group’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

Match Group, Inc.’s recent earnings call painted a mixed picture, highlighting both achievements and challenges. The sentiment was buoyed by strong growth at Hinge and effective cost management, yet tempered by difficulties at Tinder and in the Asian market, alongside a legal settlement impacting financials.

Match Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Match Group, Inc., a leader in the digital dating industry, operates a portfolio of popular brands like Tinder and Hinge, providing technology-driven platforms for meaningful connections worldwide.

Match Group Q3 Results: Revenue and Net Income Rise

On November 4, 2025, Match Group announced its third-quarter financial results, showcasing a 2% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $914 million and an 18% rise in net income to $161 million. The company highlighted its strategic focus on innovation and user outcomes, with significant advancements in product features and international expansion. Match Group also resolved a long-standing legal case and announced a cash dividend of $0.19 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.

Match Group Issues $700 Million in Senior Notes

On August 20, 2025, Match Group Holdings II, LLC, a subsidiary of Match Group, Inc., issued $700 million in senior notes due 2033 with an interest rate of 6.125%. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and for general corporate purposes, impacting the company’s financial strategy by managing its debt obligations and potentially affecting its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Hold with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.

Match Group’s Earnings Call: Hinge Shines, Tinder Struggles

Match Group’s latest earnings call revealed a mixed sentiment, with positive momentum at Hinge due to product innovation and international expansion, while Tinder is showing early signs of improvement despite ongoing revenue challenges. The company surpassed financial expectations, excluding one-time charges, but continues to face macroeconomic pressures and challenges in certain segments like E&E.

Match Group Announces $700M Senior Notes Offering

On August 6, 2025, Match Group, Inc. announced the pricing of a $700 million unregistered offering of senior notes by its subsidiary, Match Group Holdings II, LLC. The notes, due in 2033, are priced at par with a 6.125% interest rate and are offered to qualified institutional buyers and certain persons outside the U.S., with the offering expected to close on August 20, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.

Match Group Announces $700 Million Senior Notes Offering

On August 6, 2025, Match Group announced that its subsidiary, Match Group Holdings II, LLC, plans to offer $700 million in senior notes due 2033. The proceeds will be used to repay existing notes due in 2026 and for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.

Match Group Exceeds Expectations Amid Strategic Transformation

Match Group, Inc. is a leading provider of digital technologies in the online dating sector, offering a diverse portfolio of brands such as Tinder, Hinge, and OkCupid to facilitate meaningful connections worldwide. In its latest earnings report, Match Group announced that its total revenue and adjusted operating income for the second quarter of 2025 exceeded both guidance and Wall Street expectations, despite an unexpected legal settlement charge. The company is currently undergoing a three-phase transformation strategy aimed at resetting its structure, revitalizing its product offerings, and preparing for future growth.