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Match Group
(NASDAQ:MTCH)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(7.01% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/19/26
MTCH scores as a moderate-quality opportunity: strong margins and cash flow support the profile, but the overall score is held back by balance-sheet risk (negative equity and sizable debt) and muted revenue growth. Valuation and shareholder returns are supportive, while technical indicators are broadly neutral and guidance implies near-term revenue headwinds despite EBITDA resilience.
Positive Factors
Robust cash generation & margins
Consistently high gross (≈71–74%) and operating margins and strong free cash flow (~$0.83–$1.02B) give Match durable internal funding. Reliable FCF supports product investment, buybacks, dividends and debt servicing, providing resilience through cyclical downturns and strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Negative equity & sizable debt load
Persistent negative equity and ~ $3.8–$4.0B of long-term debt leave limited balance-sheet cushion. High structural leverage reduces financial flexibility for larger M&A, increases refinancing risk, and makes the company more vulnerable to operating volatility despite strong cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust cash generation & margins
Consistently high gross (≈71–74%) and operating margins and strong free cash flow (~$0.83–$1.02B) give Match durable internal funding. Reliable FCF supports product investment, buybacks, dividends and debt servicing, providing resilience through cyclical downturns and strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Match Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows where Match Group earns its revenue globally, highlighting regions with strong performance and potential areas for expansion or risk.
Shows where Match Group earns its revenue globally, highlighting regions with strong performance and potential areas for expansion or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMatch Group (MTCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.84B
Dividend Yield2.32%
Average Volume (3M)3.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth2.00%
EPS Growth30.81%
CountryUS
Employees2,200
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.76
Shares Outstanding233,266,530
10 Day Avg. Volume3,274,027
30 Day Avg. Volume3,284,093
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.66
Price to Book (P/B)-30.91
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio7.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.11Price Target Upside18.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.48B
Match Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Match Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Mat...
How the Company Makes Money
Match Group primarily generates revenue from subscriptions and a la carte purchases across its dating platforms. Subscription revenue comes from paid tiers (typically offering enhanced features such as increased visibility, the ability to see who ...
Match Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call tilted positive: the company beat Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations, demonstrated clear product-led momentum at Tinder with improving engagement metrics (Sparks, retention, registrations) and delivered strong growth and margins at Hinge. These operational gains, along with cost actions, cash generation, and strategic investments (Sniffies), outweigh near-term headwinds from Azar’s App Store disruption, payer declines, and short-term revenue impacts from UX tests and safety rollouts. Management reiterated a path to restore Tinder MAU and full-year targets while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.Positive Updates
Beat Revenue and EBITDA Expectations
Q1 total revenue of $864M, up 4% (flat FXN); adjusted EBITDA $343M, up 25% with a 40% margin. Outperformance driven by Tinder strength and a one-time benefit from Canada’s rescission of its digital services tax (~$11M).
Negative Updates
Azar App Store Removal and Continued Revenue Pressure
Azar was temporarily removed from the App Store (02/22/2026) and reinstated on 04/06/2026; registrations and MAU beginning to recover but monetization is lower. Azar incurred an estimated ~$3M direct revenue hit in Q1 and guidance assumes a $20M negative impact for Q2; continued pressure expected over multiple quarters.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Beat Revenue and EBITDA Expectations
Q1 total revenue of $864M, up 4% (flat FXN); adjusted EBITDA $343M, up 25% with a 40% margin. Outperformance driven by Tinder strength and a one-time benefit from Canada’s rescission of its digital services tax (~$11M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Match Group guided Q2 2026 total revenue of $850–860 million (down 2% to flat year‑over‑year), assuming a one‑point FX tailwind (FX‑neutral down 1%–3% YoY) and explicitly modeling ~$10 million of downside from Tinder user‑experience tests and ~$20 million of downside from reduced Azar direct revenue; adjusted EBITDA is guided to $325–330 million (about a 13% YoY increase) implying roughly a 38% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint. Management said the full‑year guide is unchanged, noted a $45 million user‑investment budget penciled into H2 (split between Q3/Q4), cautioned Azar pressure may persist for several quarters, and pointed to margin optionality from cost actions (≈$15 million annualized savings from MG Asia consolidation, ≈$10 million from winding down Archer) alongside Q1 liquidity/leverage metrics (≈$1.0 billion cash, TTM gross leverage 3.1x, net leverage 2.3x).Match Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.52B | 3.49B | 3.48B | 3.36B | 3.19B | 2.98B |
| Gross Profit | 2.60B | 2.54B | 2.49B | 2.41B | 2.23B | 2.14B |
| EBITDA | 1.08B | 999.21M | 951.63M | 1.05B | 566.63M | 428.04M |
| Net Income | 662.71M | 613.45M | 551.28M | 651.54M | 361.95M | 277.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.41B | 4.46B | 4.47B | 4.51B | 4.18B | 5.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 1.03B | 970.73M | 868.64M | 581.12M | 827.20M |
| Total Debt | 3.97B | 3.97B | 3.85B | 3.84B | 3.84B | 3.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.63B | 4.71B | 4.53B | 4.53B | 4.54B | 5.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | -218.12M | -253.50M | -63.66M | -19.55M | -359.88M | -203.77M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.02B | 1.02B | 882.14M | 829.38M | 476.56M | 832.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.08B | 1.08B | 932.72M | 896.79M | 525.69M | 912.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -50.72M | -46.83M | -58.54M | -76.58M | -71.70M | -939.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -423.97M | -984.89M | -758.30M | -534.07M | -689.17M | 111.11M |
Match Group Technical Analysis
Positive
35.51
Price Trends
36.13
Positive
33.80
Positive
33.19
Positive
Market Momentum
0.65
Negative
61.09
Neutral
81.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.80, below the 50-day MA of 36.13, and above the 200-day MA of 33.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTCH.
Match Group Risk Analysis
Match Group disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Match Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Match Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $1.48T | 20.85 | 33.22% | 0.32% | 26.18% | 6.07% | |
79 Outperform | $3.31B | 14.36 | 3.47% | 4.25% | 1.02% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.80B | 4.67 | 9.89% | 8.13% | 1.64% | 4.56% | |
64 Neutral | $867.28M | 8.72 | 6.68% | ― | -1.21% | -41.09% | |
63 Neutral | $8.84B | 13.73 | -286.13% | 2.32% | 2.00% | 30.81% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
54 Neutral | $427.81M | -0.51 | -110.37% | ― | -11.42% | -20.07% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MTCH
Match Group
37.90
6.63
21.19%
META
Meta Platforms
582.90
-133.10
-18.59%
JOYY
JOYY
67.26
20.00
42.33%
WB
Weibo
7.36
-1.66
-18.38%
MOMO
Hello Group
5.87
-2.31
-28.24%
BMBL
Bumble
3.28
-3.06
-48.26%
Match Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Match Group shareholders reject executive pay, approve incentives
Negative
Jun 18, 2026
At its June 16, 2026 annual meeting, Match Group shareholders elected four directors—Manuel Bronstein, Laura Rachel Jones, Ann L. McDaniel and Thomas J. McInerney—to one-year terms ending at the 2027 annual meeting, with more than 208....
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Match Group Posts Strong Q1 Results, Declares Dividend
Positive
May 5, 2026
Match Group reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026, showing total revenue up 4% year over year to $864 million and net income up 42% to $167 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising 25% and margins improving. The board also declared a quar...
Executive/Board Changes
Match Group Appoints Raina Moskowitz to Board
Neutral
Apr 30, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Match Group, Inc.’s board appointed Raina Moskowitz as a director, effective at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, to fill the vacancy created by the previously announced resignation of director Pamela S. Seymon, wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.