Match Group (MTCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.15B
• Dividend Yield: 2.32%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -0.46%
• EPS Growth: -2.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.83
• Shares Outstanding: 236,070,190
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,676,339
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,359,407
• PEG Ratio: 0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): -30.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.47
• 1Y Price Target: $36.33
• Price Target Upside: 14.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.66
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.50B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(3.68% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

MTCH scores as a solid cash-flow business with attractive valuation, supported by guidance for stronger EBITDA and free cash flow. The score is held back by balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity) and weak technical momentum, alongside continued near-term pressure at Tinder and other segments.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow strength

Consistently high operating and free cash flow (2025 FCF > $1B with ~90% conversion) underpins durable capital returns, debt servicing and reinvestment. Strong cash generation supports buybacks/dividends and gives flexibility to fund product investment during multi-quarter turnarounds.

Hinge: high-growth, high-margin brand

Hinge is a durable growth driver: double-digit top-line growth, expanding payers and strong mid-30s EBITDA margins diversify Match’s revenue mix. Its rapid international MAU expansion and scalable economics make Hinge a long-term structural offset to Tinder volatility and a lever for future margin accretion.

Trust & safety product moat

Effective safety tools (FaceCheck) materially reduce fraud/bad-actor interactions, improving user experience and long-term retention. This strengthens marketplace quality, mitigates regulatory risk, and creates a defensible product advantage that supports sustainable payer rates and lifetime value.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and negative equity

High gross leverage and persistently negative equity reduce financial flexibility and increase refinancing and covenant risk if cash flow weakens. This structural balance-sheet profile constrains strategic optionality (M&A, sustained buybacks) and raises downside vulnerability in adverse cycles.

Tinder usage and revenue weakness

Tinder remains the largest revenue engine but shows sustained MAU and payer declines, signaling structural engagement headwinds. Persistent shrinkage of the core app pressures long-term revenue growth and increases reliance on other brands and product fixes to restore topline and monetization.

Revenue variability from product/regulatory shifts

Guidance embeds material assumptions tied to legal and platform outcomes; alternative payment and app-store rulings create execution risk. If favorable outcomes don't materialize, targeted savings and FCF could fall short, making cash-return plans and leverage targets more difficult to sustain over multiple quarters.

Match Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Match Group, Inc. provides dating products worldwide. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Pairs, PlentyOfFish, and OurTime, as well as a various other brands. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Match Group generates revenue primarily through subscription services and in-app purchases across its dating platforms. The company offers premium membership options that provide users with enhanced features, such as unlimited swiping on Tinder or advanced search capabilities on Match.com. Additionally, Match Group earns revenue from advertising on its platforms, leveraging its large user base to attract advertisers looking to reach specific demographics. Significant partnerships with payment processors and advertising networks also contribute to its revenue. The company's ability to innovate and introduce new features, along with strategic acquisitions of complementary brands, plays a crucial role in sustaining its earnings and expanding its market presence.

Match Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong cash generation and solid profitability support shareholder returns, but the balance sheet is a major risk: elevated debt and persistently negative equity reduce financial flexibility despite steady revenue.

Income Statement

Revenue has been steady with modest growth recently (2024 up ~3%, 2025 nearly flat), following stronger expansion earlier in the period. Profitability is solid for the industry, with consistently high gross margins (~70%+) and net margins improving into the mid-to-high teens in 2024–2025. A key watch-out is some volatility in operating profitability (EBIT margin peaked in 2023 and softened in 2024–2025), suggesting margin pressure despite stable revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated with total debt around $3.8–$4.0B across the period. Stockholders’ equity is negative in every year provided, which weakens financial flexibility and makes equity-based leverage and return measures unfavorable. While total assets are relatively stable, the combination of high debt and negative equity increases risk if operating conditions deteriorate or refinancing becomes more expensive.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently high, with 2025 free cash flow exceeding $1.0B. Free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.91–0.95 across years), indicating good earnings quality and conversion. Free cash flow growth is strong in 2025, though year-to-year growth has been uneven historically (including a decline in 2022).

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.49B	3.48B	3.36B	3.19B	2.98B
Gross Profit	2.54B	2.49B	2.41B	2.23B	2.14B
EBITDA	999.21M	951.63M	1.05B	566.63M	428.04M
Net Income	613.45M	551.28M	651.54M	361.95M	277.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.46B	4.47B	4.51B	4.18B	5.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.03B	970.73M	868.64M	581.12M	827.20M
Total Debt	3.97B	3.85B	3.84B	3.84B	3.93B
Total Liabilities	4.71B	4.53B	4.53B	4.54B	5.26B
Stockholders Equity	-253.50M	-63.66M	-19.55M	-359.88M	-203.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.02B	882.14M	829.38M	476.56M	832.53M
Operating Cash Flow	1.08B	932.72M	896.79M	525.69M	912.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-46.83M	-58.54M	-76.58M	-71.70M	-939.83M
Financing Cash Flow	-984.89M	-758.30M	-534.07M	-689.17M	111.11M

Match Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.09, above the 50-day MA of 31.80, and below the 200-day MA of 32.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTCH.

Match Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
META	81 Outperform	$1.63T	27.39	30.24%	0.32%	22.17%	-2.66%
MTCH	67 Neutral	$7.15B	12.72	―	2.32%	-0.46%	-2.75%
MOMO	62 Neutral	$1.01B	10.70	6.57%	―	-4.66%	-38.42%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
JOYY	60 Neutral	$3.16B	-29.41	-2.29%	4.25%	-7.60%	-160.75%
WB	60 Neutral	$2.47B	5.77	12.46%	8.13%	-1.29%	22.48%
BMBL	51 Neutral	$304.40M	-1.51	-25.34%	―	-7.43%	61.36%

Match Group Corporate Events

Match Group Adds Tech Leaders to Refresh Board Governance

On February 13, 2026, Match Group announced that directors Pamela S. Seymon and Sharmistha Dubey would leave its board at the 2026 annual meeting, with both departures stated as unrelated to any disagreements over company operations, policies or practices. In a February 17, 2026 release, the company said veteran tech executives Manuel Bronstein and Raina Moskowitz are expected to join the board, following a targeted search to bolster product, growth and marketplace expertise.

The planned appointments bring board-level experience from high-growth consumer technology and marketplace businesses such as Roblox, Alphabet, Etsy and The Knot Worldwide, aligning with Match Group’s focus on innovation, user engagement and global expansion. With Bronstein and Moskowitz, Match Group will have added six new directors over two years, signaling an ongoing effort to refresh governance, deepen strategic capabilities and support the company’s transformation agenda while maintaining continuity through an orderly transition from departing board members.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.

Match Group Highlights 2025 Results and Raises Dividend

On February 3, 2026, Match Group reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results that underscored a product-led transformation focused on user outcomes, particularly at flagship apps Tinder and Hinge. For 2025, revenue was flat at $3.5 billion but profitability improved, with net income up 11% to $613 million and an 18% margin, while adjusted EBITDA slipped 1% to $1.2 billion, or 35% margin, in part due to legal and restructuring costs. In the fourth quarter, revenue rose 2% year-on-year to $878 million and net income jumped 32% to $210 million as adjusted EBITDA grew 14% and margins reached 42%, driven by higher revenue per payer offsetting a 5% decline in payers. Operationally, Tinder showed better engagement and safety metrics—with Sparks Coverage up 4% in December and the Face Check verification tool cutting interactions with bad actors by more than half—while Hinge delivered 26% direct revenue growth in Q4, nearly 50% MAU growth in European expansion markets during 2025, and strong traction in new markets such as Mexico and Brazil. Match Group also returned substantial capital to shareholders in 2025, using 108% of free cash flow on share repurchases, dividends and equity award settlements, and its board declared a 5% higher cash dividend of $0.20 per share payable on April 21, 2026 to shareholders of record on April 7, 2026, signaling confidence in its multi-brand strategy and roadmap for 2026 despite a flat top line and declining payer base.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTCH) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Match Group stock, see the MTCH Stock Forecast page.