Match Group (MTCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.98B
• Dividend Yield: 1.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: -0.60%
• EPS Growth: -11.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 93
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 240,622,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,473,549
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,575,985
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.13
• 1Y Price Target: $39.44
• Price Target Upside: 6.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(10.87% Upside)

Match Group's strong cash flow and positive technical indicators are key strengths, supporting a stable outlook. However, financial instability and challenges with revenue growth, particularly at Tinder, weigh on the overall score. Product innovation and strategic initiatives offer potential for future improvement.

Positive Factors

Operational Results

Match Group produced a solid set of operational results with revenue ahead of its guided range.

Product Development

The Tinder turnaround has accelerated product velocity and is willing to take bigger product risks.

Revenue Growth

Direct payments lead to a greater than 10 point increase to net revenue.

Negative Factors

Industry Growth

Neutral rating reflects expectation for muted growth in the online dating industry in 2025 and limited visibility in the timing and magnitude of the Tinder turnaround.

Market Expectations

Tinder payers at 8.97 million slightly missed Street but 2Q Tinder direct revenue was above Street.

Revenue Concerns

Tinder users and payers remain in decline, but are starting to move in the right direction.

Match Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Match Group, Inc. provides dating products worldwide. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Pairs, PlentyOfFish, and OurTime, as well as a various other brands. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Match Group generates revenue primarily through subscription services and in-app purchases. The company offers premium features and memberships for its dating apps, allowing users to access enhanced functionalities such as unlimited swipes, visibility boosts, and advanced profile controls. Tinder, one of its flagship products, employs a freemium model where users can access basic services for free while incentivizing them to purchase Tinder Plus, Tinder Gold, or Tinder Platinum subscriptions for additional benefits. Additionally, Match Group earns revenue from advertising on its platforms, though this is a smaller portion compared to subscription income. The company has also established strategic partnerships and collaborations, enhancing its service offerings and market reach, which contribute positively to its overall earnings.

Match Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Match Group shows strong cash flow generation, which is positive for liquidity. However, challenges include declining revenue growth, reduced profitability margins, and a concerning balance sheet with negative equity, indicating financial instability.

Income Statement

Match Group's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin around 71.8% in TTM, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 15.8% in TTM from 19.4% in 2023, reflecting reduced profitability. Revenue growth has been negative recently, with a -1% decline in TTM, suggesting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also slightly decreased, indicating pressure on operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning negative stockholders' equity, leading to a high and negative debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates financial instability and high leverage risk. Return on equity is negative, reflecting losses relative to equity. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a 14.5% growth in free cash flow in TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.64, suggesting efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 0.94, demonstrating good cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.45B	3.48B	3.36B	3.19B	2.98B	2.39B
Gross Profit	2.45B	2.49B	2.41B	2.23B	2.14B	1.76B
EBITDA	926.59M	951.63M	1.05B	662.79M	921.64M	794.51M
Net Income	537.81M	551.28M	651.54M	361.95M	277.72M	587.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.87B	4.47B	4.51B	4.18B	5.06B	3.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	340.42M	970.73M	868.64M	581.12M	827.20M	739.16M
Total Debt	3.43B	3.85B	3.84B	3.84B	3.93B	3.84B
Total Liabilities	4.10B	4.53B	4.53B	4.54B	5.26B	4.46B
Stockholders Equity	-230.88M	-63.66M	-19.55M	-359.88M	-203.77M	-1.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	907.64M	882.14M	829.38M	476.56M	832.53M	759.81M
Operating Cash Flow	956.61M	932.72M	896.79M	525.69M	912.50M	802.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-74.10M	-58.54M	-76.58M	-71.70M	-939.83M	-4.89B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.40B	-758.30M	-534.07M	-689.17M	111.11M	1.68B

Match Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.26, above the 50-day MA of 34.55, and above the 200-day MA of 31.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTCH.

Match Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPRA	74 Outperform	$1.45B	20.21	8.57%	4.86%	29.62%	-19.65%
MOMO	73 Outperform	$1.33B	7.79	12.39%	―	-11.02%	-5.17%
WB	71 Outperform	$2.76B	8.12	10.77%	7.28%	1.49%	14.94%
MTCH	68 Neutral	$8.98B	18.21	-865.98%	1.03%	-0.60%	-11.05%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$44.01B	4.13	-12.81%	4.14%	1.86%	-42.71%
JOYY	59 Neutral	$2.78B	―	-2.33%	3.18%	-6.82%	-150.90%
SEAT	50 Neutral	$182.51M	25.25	-75.68%	―	-10.52%	-420.74%

Match Group Corporate Events

Match Group Issues $700 Million in Senior Notes

On August 20, 2025, Match Group Holdings II, LLC, a subsidiary of Match Group, Inc., issued $700 million in senior notes due 2033 with an interest rate of 6.125%. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and for general corporate purposes, impacting the company’s financial strategy by managing its debt obligations and potentially affecting its market positioning.

Match Group Announces $700M Senior Notes Offering

On August 6, 2025, Match Group, Inc. announced the pricing of a $700 million unregistered offering of senior notes by its subsidiary, Match Group Holdings II, LLC. The notes, due in 2033, are priced at par with a 6.125% interest rate and are offered to qualified institutional buyers and certain persons outside the U.S., with the offering expected to close on August 20, 2025.

Match Group Announces $700 Million Senior Notes Offering

On August 6, 2025, Match Group announced that its subsidiary, Match Group Holdings II, LLC, plans to offer $700 million in senior notes due 2033. The proceeds will be used to repay existing notes due in 2026 and for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

Match Group Announces Cash Dividend and Q2 Results

On August 5, 2025, Match Group announced a cash dividend of $0.19 per share, payable on October 17, 2025. The company reported its second-quarter financial results, highlighting a successful phase in its transformation strategy with revenue and adjusted operating income surpassing expectations, excluding a legal settlement charge. The company is reinvesting $50 million in strategic initiatives and product development to enhance user experiences and drive long-term growth. Tinder and Hinge showed significant progress, with new features and geographic expansion plans, positioning Match Group for future success.

Match Group Stockholders Approve Key Governance Changes

On June 18, 2025, Match Group, a leading provider of dating products, held its annual stockholders meeting where several significant decisions were made. The stockholders approved an amendment to declassify the Board of Directors over a three-year period, which was part of the Fifth Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation. Additionally, they ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the company’s independent auditor for the fiscal year 2025, approved executive compensation for 2024, and endorsed the Amended and Restated 2024 Stock and Incentive Plan. These decisions reflect Match Group’s ongoing efforts to streamline governance and enhance shareholder engagement.