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Match Group
(NASDAQ:MTCH)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(18.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
MTCH scores 70 primarily due to strong cash flow generation and high profitability, reinforced by constructive technical momentum and a reasonable P/E with a ~2% dividend yield. The main constraints are the sharp TTM revenue decline, ongoing payer pressure highlighted in guidance, and elevated balance-sheet risk from negative equity and significant debt.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
High operating and free cash flow, with free cash flow consistently near net income, indicates strong earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This supports product investment, debt servicing, dividends and repurchases across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue and Payer Contraction
Material revenue and payer declines indicate that the core portfolio is still struggling to retain and convert users. Persistent contraction could limit growth, weaken operating leverage and place greater reliance on pricing and monetization improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
High operating and free cash flow, with free cash flow consistently near net income, indicates strong earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This supports product investment, debt servicing, dividends and repurchases across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Match Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows where Match Group earns its revenue globally, highlighting regions with strong performance and potential areas for expansion or risk.
Shows where Match Group earns its revenue globally, highlighting regions with strong performance and potential areas for expansion or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMatch Group (MTCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.88B
Dividend Yield1.96%
Average Volume (3M)3.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.3
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth1.70%
EPS Growth40.52%
CountryUS
Employees2,205
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.98
Shares Outstanding229,550,980
10 Day Avg. Volume2,616,861
30 Day Avg. Volume3,303,228
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.66
Price to Book (P/B)-30.91
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio7.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.00Price Target Upside10.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.48B
Match Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Match Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Mat...
How the Company Makes Money
Match Group primarily generates revenue from subscriptions and a la carte purchases across its dating platforms. Subscription revenue comes from paid tiers (typically offering enhanced features such as increased visibility, the ability to see who ...
Match Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized meaningful operational and financial progress: adjusted EBITDA and margins expanded, Hinge showed strong top-line and profitability growth, Tinder engagement and key behavioral metrics materially improved after product and algorithm updates, and cash generation and capital returns remain robust. Offsetting items included modest overall revenue decline, continued payer count pressure, and material headwinds in the E&E segment driven by Azar's App Store disruption. Management reduced the expected negative impact from UX tests and provided constructive near-term guidance, signaling confidence in a continued turnaround for Tinder and sustained Hinge momentum.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $331M in Q2, up 14% year over year, representing a 39% adjusted EBITDA margin. Full-year adjusted EBITDA expected to be at or above prior guidance and margin to exceed 37.5%.
Negative Updates
Revenue Slightly Down and FX Headwinds
Total Q2 revenue of $853M, down 1% year over year (down 2% FX-neutral). FX was ~$2M worse than expected and full-year FX outlook shifted ~0.5 point versus prior assumptions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA of $331M in Q2, up 14% year over year, representing a 39% adjusted EBITDA margin. Full-year adjusted EBITDA expected to be at or above prior guidance and margin to exceed 37.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Match Group guided Q3 revenue of $885–$895 million (down ~2–3% YoY, ~1ppt FX headwind; FX‑neutral down ~1–2%), assuming a ~$10M negative impact from Tinder user‑experience tests and ~$15M from lower Azar revenue, with indirect revenue of ~ $15M; Q3 adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $330–$335 million (≈37% margin at the midpoint). For full‑year 2026 they expect total revenue near the midpoint of February guidance (at or above the FX‑neutral midpoint), with FX now expected to be roughly a +0.5ppt tailwind to revenue (a 0.5ppt downgrade vs prior), indirect revenue down mid‑teens %, adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of prior guidance and margin to exceed 37.5%; Tinder direct revenue expected to decline low single digits with full‑year UX test drag now $30–$40M (vs $60M originally), Hinge revenue in line with prior guide, E&E direct revenue down mid‑teens with E&E margins in the high‑20s, free cash flow at the high end of the prior range, and full‑year stock‑based compensation of $230–$240M (≈$20M improvement at the midpoint).Match Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.51B | 3.49B | 3.48B | 3.36B | 3.19B | 2.98B |
| Gross Profit | 2.62B | 2.54B | 2.49B | 2.41B | 2.23B | 2.14B |
| EBITDA | 1.14B | 999.21M | 951.63M | 1.05B | 566.63M | 428.04M |
| Net Income | 707.78M | 613.45M | 551.28M | 651.54M | 361.95M | 277.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.03B | 4.46B | 4.47B | 4.51B | 4.18B | 5.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 583.81M | 1.03B | 970.73M | 868.64M | 581.12M | 827.20M |
| Total Debt | 3.55B | 3.97B | 3.85B | 3.84B | 3.84B | 3.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.27B | 4.71B | 4.53B | 4.53B | 4.54B | 5.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | -237.06M | -253.50M | -63.66M | -19.55M | -359.88M | -203.77M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.14B | 1.02B | 882.14M | 829.38M | 476.56M | 832.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.21B | 1.08B | 932.72M | 896.79M | 525.69M | 912.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -142.24M | -46.83M | -58.54M | -76.58M | -71.70M | -939.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -808.38M | -984.89M | -758.30M | -534.07M | -689.17M | 111.11M |
Match Group Technical Analysis
Positive
37.91
Price Trends
37.62
Positive
36.22
Positive
33.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
58.05
Neutral
71.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.31, above the 50-day MA of 37.62, and above the 200-day MA of 33.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTCH.
Match Group Risk Analysis
Match Group disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Match Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Match Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.72B | 17.04 | 3.47% | 6.49% | 1.02% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $1.39T | 20.29 | 29.73% | 0.35% | 27.65% | -5.02% | |
70 Outperform | $8.88B | 13.32 | -303.57% | 2.06% | 1.70% | 40.52% | |
64 Neutral | $851.03M | 8.47 | 6.72% | ― | -1.21% | -41.09% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $358.95M | -0.72 | -110.37% | ― | -13.33% | 45.52% | |
49 Neutral | $8.64B | -28.36 | -14.61% | ― | 12.65% | 42.94% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MTCH
Match Group
39.70
3.53
9.76%
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SNAP
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Match Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Match Group Highlights Q2 Results and Dividend Declaration
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Match Group reported second-quarter 2026 results showing total revenue of $853 million, down 1% year over year, but a 36% increase in net income to $171 million and a 14% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $331 million, driven by lower ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Match Group shareholders reject executive pay, approve incentives
Negative
Jun 18, 2026
At its June 16, 2026 annual meeting, Match Group shareholders elected four directors—Manuel Bronstein, Laura Rachel Jones, Ann L. McDaniel and Thomas J. McInerney—to one-year terms ending at the 2027 annual meeting, with more than 208....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.