Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)
NASDAQ:MOMO
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Hello Group
(NASDAQ:MOMO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-14.04% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/04/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial stability (very low leverage) but offset by deteriorating growth and profitability plus weakening free-cash-flow trends. Low valuation supports the rating, while weak technical momentum and mixed guidance—strong overseas growth but continued domestic pressure—cap upside.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low leverage and a large equity base materially reduce financial risk and increase strategic optionality. This balance-sheet strength supports continued buybacks/dividends, funds sustained R&D or overseas expansion, and provides a buffer versus cyclical domestic revenue shocks.
Negative Factors
Material domestic revenue decline
Regulatory tax enforcement and platform-payment policy changes have structurally impaired domestic live and membership monetization. Given China remains the core market, persistent mid‑teens declines will erode scale, reduce network effects, and limit long‑term monetization levers unless regulatory dynamics ease.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low leverage and a large equity base materially reduce financial risk and increase strategic optionality. This balance-sheet strength supports continued buybacks/dividends, funds sustained R&D or overseas expansion, and provides a buffer versus cyclical domestic revenue shocks.
Read all positive factors
Hello Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Reveals how different parts of the business contribute to overall revenue, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth or decline within the company’s operations.
Reveals how different parts of the business contribute to overall revenue, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth or decline within the company’s operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHello Group (MOMO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$803.75M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)782.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth-1.21%
EPS Growth-41.09%
CountryUS
Employees1,390
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.56
Shares Outstanding116,883,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,139,584
30 Day Avg. Volume782,336
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio11.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.43
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)6.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.14B
Hello Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hello Group Inc. delivers a suite of mobile-centric social and entertainment offerings across the People's Republic of China. The company's flagship "Momo" platform comprises its primary mobile application along with numerous associated features, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Hello Group generates revenue primarily from services offered within its mobile applications. Historically, a major revenue stream has been live video services on Momo, where the company earns money from users purchasing virtual gifts and other pa...
Hello Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 02, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong and fast-growing overseas momentum (44% YoY) and improved margins/operating income contrasted with meaningful domestic challenges—primarily tax enforcement impacts on Momo agencies and Alipay policy changes hitting Tantan's membership monetization—leading to notable revenue and net income declines. Management emphasized cost discipline, product and AI-driven initiatives, and a clear path for overseas products toward profitability, while revising domestic full-year expectations modestly downward and keeping margin targets intact. Overall, positives (overseas growth, margin resilience, product improvements, cost control) partially offset significant domestic headwinds and a sizable YoY net income decline.Positive Updates
Group Revenue and Overseas Growth
Total group revenue of RMB 2.39 billion in Q1 2026 (down 5% YoY) with strong overseas growth: overseas revenue RMB 597 million, up 44% YoY and increasing to 25% of group revenue (vs 16% year-ago).
Negative Updates
Domestic Revenue Decline
Domestic revenue declined to RMB 1.79 billion, down 15% YoY. Mainland value-added service revenue was RMB 1.76 billion, down 15% YoY and 9% QoQ, driven primarily by tax scrutiny and softer consumer spending.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue and Overseas Growth
Total group revenue of RMB 2.39 billion in Q1 2026 (down 5% YoY) with strong overseas growth: overseas revenue RMB 597 million, up 44% YoY and increasing to 25% of group revenue (vs 16% year-ago).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 revenue of RMB 2.45–2.55 billion (a year‑over‑year decline of roughly 6.5% to 2.7%), noting that at the midpoint Mainland China revenue is expected to fall by high‑teens while overseas revenue is expected to grow by high‑50s y/y; for full‑year 2026 they now expect group revenue to be slightly down year‑over‑year (a couple percentage points), Mainland China revenue to decline around mid‑teens (worse than prior low‑teens view), overseas revenue to reach about RMB 3.0 billion (± ~RMB100 million), and adjusted operating margin still targeted in the low‑teens, with the company pursuing further cost and efficiency actions as needed.Hello Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.23B | 10.37B | 10.56B | 12.00B | 12.70B | 14.58B |
| Gross Profit | 3.89B | 3.92B | 4.12B | 4.98B | 5.28B | 6.19B |
| EBITDA | 1.77B | 1.82B | 2.01B | 2.79B | 2.23B | -1.76B |
| Net Income | 737.07M | 804.01M | 1.04B | 1.96B | 1.48B | -2.91B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.67B | 13.79B | 18.38B | 16.23B | 15.83B | 18.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.50B | 8.68B | 6.15B | 6.89B | 10.62B | 8.43B |
| Total Debt | 90.40M | 128.91M | 4.58B | 2.29B | 2.77B | 4.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.85B | 2.70B | 6.95B | 4.24B | 4.90B | 7.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.82B | 10.88B | 11.43B | 11.80B | 10.78B | 10.45B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 617.22M | 671.78M | 1.35B | 1.70B | 1.15B | 1.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.09B | 1.15B | 1.64B | 2.28B | 1.23B | 1.56B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -725.24M | 159.99M | -558.89M | 2.41B | 1.72B | 2.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.76B | -5.29B | 236.20M | -1.70B | -3.43B | -1.79B |
Hello Group Technical Analysis
Negative
6.98
Price Trends
6.01
Negative
6.02
Negative
6.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.13
Positive
35.57
Neutral
47.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOMO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.75, above the 50-day MA of 6.01, and above the 200-day MA of 6.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOMO.
Hello Group Risk Analysis
Hello Group disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hello Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hello Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $3.31B | 14.36 | 3.47% | 4.25% | 1.02% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $12.42B | 10.25 | 10.97% | 1.02% | 17.25% | -3.49% | |
67 Neutral | $1.80B | 4.67 | 9.89% | 8.13% | 1.64% | 4.56% | |
65 Neutral | $7.36B | 125.53 | 1.28% | ― | 16.83% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $803.75M | 7.88 | 6.68% | ― | -1.21% | -41.09% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $72.15B | 88.54 | 16.37% | ― | 443.93% | ― |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MOMO
Hello Group
5.44
-2.61
-32.39%
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JOYY
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Hello Group Corporate Events
Hello Group Q1 2026 Results Highlight Revenue Dip in China, Fast-Growing Overseas Business and Capital Returns
Jun 2, 2026
Hello Group Inc. reported unaudited results for the first quarter of 2026 on June 2, showing a 5.3% year-on-year decline in net revenues to RMB2.39 billion as domestic Momo and Tantan businesses softened and paying users fell, while overseas reven...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.