Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)
NASDAQ:MOMO
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Hello Group
(NASDAQ:MOMO)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-6.88% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is supported primarily by balance-sheet strength and a reasonable valuation, but is held back by weakening fundamentals (shrinking revenue, margin compression, softer cash conversion) and bearish technicals. The latest earnings call reinforces the near-term risk: management expects further revenue declines in 2026 even as overseas growth and cost discipline partially offset domestic pressure.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low debt and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility: supports continued buybacks/dividends, funds overseas scale-ups, and cushions revenue cyclicality. Conservative capitalization reduces refinancing risk and gives management time to execute strategic pivots during multi-quarter top-line weakness.
Negative Factors
Multi-year domestic revenue decline
Sustained domestic shrinkage erodes the historical high-margin live-video VAS base that underpinned profits. Structural declines in paying users and tax-driven pressure on high-value streamers reduce core monetization power, making it harder for overseas growth to fully offset lost domestic economics within 6–12 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low debt and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility: supports continued buybacks/dividends, funds overseas scale-ups, and cushions revenue cyclicality. Conservative capitalization reduces refinancing risk and gives management time to execute strategic pivots during multi-quarter top-line weakness.
Read all positive factors
Hello Group (MOMO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$972.24M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)767.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth-4.66%
EPS Growth-38.42%
CountryUS
Employees1,390
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding116,883,500
10 Day Avg. Volume601,402
30 Day Avg. Volume767,979
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.58
Price to Book (P/B)0.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.75
P/FCF Ratio11.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.39
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)5.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.10B
Hello Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hello Group Inc. provides mobile-based social and entertainment services in the People's Republic of China. It operates Momo platform that includes its Momo mobile application, as well as various related properties, features, functionalities, tool...
How the Company Makes Money
Hello Group generates revenue primarily from services offered within its mobile applications. Historically, a major revenue stream has been live video services on Momo, where the company earns money from users purchasing virtual gifts and other pa...
Hello Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Reveals how different parts of the business contribute to overall revenue, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth or decline within the company’s operations.
Reveals how different parts of the business contribute to overall revenue, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth or decline within the company’s operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHello Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed results: the company showed clear operational discipline, margin resilience, meaningful overseas revenue acceleration (+71% FY) and signs of recovery in paying-user trends for Momo, while facing material domestic revenue declines, tax-driven disruptions to high-value live-streaming revenue, a sizable decrease in cash reserves YoY, and continued investment-related overseas losses. Management guidance expects further domestic headwinds in early 2026 but plans to offset with overseas expansion and disciplined capital allocation; on balance the call communicated both strong growth engines and substantial near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Overseas Revenue Growth
Overseas revenue reached RMB 608 million in Q4 2025, up 70% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter; full-year overseas revenue was RMB 2.0 billion, up 71% year-over-year, increasing its share to 24% of Q4 group revenue (19% for full-year vs 11% in 2024).
Negative Updates
Domestic Revenue Decline
Domestic revenue was RMB 1.97 billion in Q4, down 14% year-over-year (full-year domestic revenue RMB 8.37 billion, down 11% YoY). Management expects Mainland China revenue to decline mid- to high-teens in Q1 and low-to-mid teens for full-year 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Overseas Revenue Growth
Overseas revenue reached RMB 608 million in Q4 2025, up 70% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter; full-year overseas revenue was RMB 2.0 billion, up 71% year-over-year, increasing its share to 24% of Q4 group revenue (19% for full-year vs 11% in 2024).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 2026 revenue of RMB 2.3–2.4 billion (a year‑over‑year decline of ~8.8%–4.8%), assuming Mainland China revenue will decline mid‑ to high‑teens at the midpoint while overseas revenue grows in the high‑40s; for full‑year 2026 they expect group revenue to decline roughly low‑to‑mid‑teens YoY (H1 down mid‑teens with H2 moderating) and outlined an overseas baseline of about RMB 3.0 billion (vs RMB 2.0 billion in 2025); they plan to keep adjusted operating margin above 10% (likely in the low‑teens), expect R&D to rise low single‑digits YoY and marketing to grow in the high‑teens to ~20% depending on ROI, target 1–3 year payback for new product investments, and noted that Yaha Live should turn profitable in 2026 with Amar following roughly six months later.Hello Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 10.08B | 10.71B | 12.00B | 12.93B | 14.39B |
| Gross Profit | 3.79B | 4.14B | 4.94B | 5.34B | 6.01B |
| EBITDA | 1.36B | 1.55B | 2.25B | 1.75B | 2.07B |
| Net Income | 786.99M | 1.05B | 1.96B | 1.51B | -2.88B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.79B | 18.38B | 16.23B | 15.83B | 18.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.68B | 6.15B | 6.89B | 10.62B | 8.43B |
| Total Debt | 128.91M | 4.58B | 2.29B | 2.77B | 4.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.70B | 6.95B | 4.24B | 4.90B | 7.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.09B | 11.43B | 11.80B | 10.78B | 10.45B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 671.78M | 1.35B | 1.70B | 1.15B | 1.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 1.64B | 2.28B | 1.23B | 1.56B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 159.99M | -558.89M | 2.41B | 1.72B | 2.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.29B | 236.20M | -1.70B | -3.43B | -1.79B |
Hello Group Technical Analysis
Positive
6.98
Price Trends
5.98
Positive
6.25
Positive
6.83
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
64.99
Neutral
73.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOMO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.79, above the 50-day MA of 5.98, and above the 200-day MA of 6.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOMO.
Hello Group Risk Analysis
Hello Group disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hello Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hello Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $13.87B | 17.48 | 13.77% | 1.02% | 13.86% | 80.97% | |
62 Neutral | $10.44B | 717.59 | 0.47% | ― | 15.17% | 75.90% | |
61 Neutral | $972.24M | 9.67 | 7.21% | ― | -4.66% | -38.42% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $3.15B | 15.27 | 31.92% | 4.25% | -7.60% | -160.75% | |
60 Neutral | $2.21B | 5.42 | 12.13% | 8.13% | -1.29% | 22.48% | |
54 Neutral | $41.98B | 208.29 | 2.48% | ― | -87.55% | 336.73% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MOMO
Hello Group
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1.13
21.49%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.