MSC Income Fund, Inc. (MSIF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $619.98M
• Dividend Yield: 8.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 394.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.23
• Revenue Growth: -31.40%
• EPS Growth: 23.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 100
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 46,026,478
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 357,291
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 394,565
• PEG Ratio: 0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.71
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.61
• 1Y Price Target: $15.42
• Price Target Upside: 15.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $155.65M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▼(-2.55% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

MSIF’s score is supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings call highlighting solid ROE, NAV growth, and low nonaccruals. The main offsets are weak cash-flow consistency/quality in the financial statements and bearish technicals with the price below key moving averages and negative MACD.

Positive Factors

Improved Capitalization

MSIF’s move to zero debt in 2025 materially reduces financial leverage and interest expense risk, increasing balance sheet flexibility. This improved capitalization gives the fund durable optionality to deploy capital, withstand portfolio stress, and support distributions without immediate refinancing.

High Return on Equity

A sustained high ROE (14.6% reported) signals efficient capital deployment and strong income generation from private debt investments. For a BDC, durable above-average ROE supports repeatable distributions and helps rebuild NAV after losses, underpinning long‑term shareholder returns.

Dividend Policy & Sponsor Backstop

Consistent regular and supplemental dividends, funded in part by undistributed taxable income, plus Main Street’s up-to-$20M purchase commitment create a durable distribution framework and liquidity backstop. This structural shareholder support helps maintain payout reliability through capital cycles.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent Cash Generation

MSIF’s operating and free cash flows have been highly volatile with recent negative outflows, weakening earnings quality. For an income-focused BDC, inconsistent cash conversion forces reliance on non‑cash marks, asset sales or external funding to sustain dividends and investment activity, raising structural risk.

Slower Deal Activity & Yield Pressure

A net reduction in private loan deployments and a 70bp yield decline reduce the fund’s core interest income potential. Slower investment pacing limits revenue growth while lower portfolio yields compress the spread over funding costs, pressuring durable net investment income until deployment and yield conditions improve.

Credit Exposure Weakness

Observed softness in consumer‑exposed portfolio companies highlights concentration and credit risk that can persist across cycles. For a BDC concentrated in middle‑market loans, ongoing weakness in these sectors can erode NAV, trigger higher provisions and impair realized returns over the medium term.

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MSC Income Fund, Inc. is a Business Development Company specializing in middle market debt and debt and equity investments in lower middle market companies. The fund seeks to invest in management buyouts, recapitalizations, growth financings, refinancing and acquisitions of companies. It invests in companies with revenue between $10 million and $150 million.

How the Company Makes Money

MSC Income Fund, Inc. generates revenue primarily through interest income and dividends from its investments in debt and equity securities. The company invests in senior secured debt, subordinated debt, and to a lesser extent, equity securities of privately held middle-market companies. These investments are structured to provide a steady stream of income through interest payments and potential capital appreciation. Additionally, the company benefits from management and incentive fees associated with its investment advisory agreement with Main Street Capital Corporation. These fees are based on the performance and assets under management, providing an incentive for the company to maximize returns on its investment portfolio. Significant partnerships with middle-market businesses and strategic investment decisions contribute to MSC Income Fund, Inc.'s earnings.

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Reported profitability is strong with expanding revenue and generally high net margins, and the balance sheet improved notably with 2025 showing zero debt. However, cash flow quality is a major concern due to highly volatile and recently negative operating/free cash flow despite strong net income, alongside some reporting inconsistencies across profit measures.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the last several years (including a sharp step-up in 2025), and profitability is consistently high with net margins generally above 45% in recent periods. However, results look somewhat volatile (including a loss year in 2020 and margin inconsistencies such as 2025 showing zero operating profit measures despite strong net income), which reduces confidence in the durability and comparability of earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows solid equity support and generally healthy returns on equity (roughly high-single to low-double digits in most years). Leverage was meaningful from 2021–2024 (debt close to equity), but 2025 shows zero debt and improved capitalization; the main watch-out is the historical reliance on debt and the variability in returns (including a negative return year in 2020).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weak spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow swing sharply between positive and negative, with large outflows in 2021, 2024, and 2025 despite strong reported net income. While some years show strong cash inflows (2020, 2022, 2023), the inconsistency and recent negative trajectory raise concerns about the quality and timing of cash earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	129.65M	101.75M	74.84M	51.74M	82.38M
Gross Profit	94.28M	62.71M	74.84M	51.74M	82.38M
EBITDA	126.38M	57.66M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	88.73M	56.55M	66.21M	45.59M	73.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.38B	1.22B	1.14B	1.11B	1.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	20.64M	28.38M	30.79M	21.31M	25.81M
Total Debt	602.75M	565.14M	484.84M	470.54M	502.87M
Total Liabilities	642.37M	599.77M	517.59M	497.50M	530.61M
Stockholders Equity	738.66M	624.90M	622.31M	609.66M	613.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-70.35M	-28.08M	50.23M	76.68M	-191.15M
Operating Cash Flow	-70.35M	-28.08M	50.23M	76.68M	-191.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-112.19M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	62.61M	25.66M	-40.76M	-81.18M	167.90M

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSIF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.66, above the 50-day MA of 12.94, and below the 200-day MA of 13.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MSIF.

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.04B	8.99	8.03%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
MSIF	64 Neutral	$619.98M	6.89	12.18%	8.18%	-31.40%	23.71%
ARCC	63 Neutral	$13.06B	10.89	9.22%	9.64%	10.34%	-24.16%
NMFC	61 Neutral	$795.36M	59.29	1.29%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
MRCC	59 Neutral	$103.57M	12.10	6.46%	14.03%	-34.92%	-132.22%
TCPC	53 Neutral	$304.44M	-5.23	-12.44%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Corporate Events

MSC Income Fund Declares Quarterly and Supplemental Dividends

MSC Income Fund, Inc., a NYSE‑listed investment firm focused on providing secured debt capital and tailored debt‑and‑equity financing to private equity‑backed and lower middle market companies, invests across diversified industry sectors in businesses with annual revenues generally ranging from $10 million to $500 million. By working alongside private equity sponsors and Main Street Capital Corporation, the fund structures “one‑stop” financing solutions that support leveraged buyouts, recapitalizations, growth initiatives and acquisitions in the private markets.

On February 25, 2026, MSC Income Fund’s board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.35 per share and a supplemental cash dividend of $0.01 per share, both payable on May 1, 2026 to stockholders of record as of March 31, 2026. The supplemental dividend will be funded from undistributed taxable income accumulated as of December 31, 2025, and investors who have not opted out of the dividend reinvestment plan will automatically receive additional shares instead of cash, underscoring the fund’s continued distribution capacity and options for income reinvestment.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSIF) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSC Income Fund, Inc. stock, see the MSIF Stock Forecast page.