MSC Income Fund, Inc. (MSIF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $598.58M
• Dividend Yield: 8.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 345.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: -31.40%
• EPS Growth: 23.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 100
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 46,910,725
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 360,897
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 345,411
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.25
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.82
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.30
• 1Y Price Target: $16.00
• Price Target Upside: 30.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $156.25M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(18.46% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 12/30/25

The score is driven by solid reported profitability and a constructive earnings call, but materially tempered by inconsistent/weak cash flow performance. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and high yield), while technical signals are broadly neutral with the stock still below its 200-day average.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability

High net margins (~60%) and solid operating profitability indicate a strong business model, supporting long-term financial stability.

Dividend Strategy

Consistent dividend payments reflect strong cash generation and a shareholder-friendly approach, enhancing investor confidence.

Return on Equity

Strong ROE demonstrates efficient use of equity capital, indicating effective management and potential for sustained growth.

Negative Factors

Volatile Cash Flow

Inconsistent cash flow can hinder the company's ability to fund operations and investments, posing a risk to financial stability.

Slow Investment Activity

Reduced investment activity may limit future revenue growth and impact the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities.

Decreased Portfolio Yield

A declining yield can reduce income from investments, affecting profitability and the ability to maintain dividend levels.

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MSC Income Fund, Inc. is a Business Development Company specializing in middle market debt and debt and equity investments in lower middle market companies. The fund seeks to invest in management buyouts, recapitalizations, growth financings, refinancing and acquisitions of companies. It invests in companies with revenue between $10 million and $150 million.

How the Company Makes Money

MSC Income Fund, Inc. generates revenue primarily through interest income and dividends from its investments in debt and equity securities. The company invests in senior secured debt, subordinated debt, and to a lesser extent, equity securities of privately held middle-market companies. These investments are structured to provide a steady stream of income through interest payments and potential capital appreciation. Additionally, the company benefits from management and incentive fees associated with its investment advisory agreement with Main Street Capital Corporation. These fees are based on the performance and assets under management, providing an incentive for the company to maximize returns on its investment portfolio. Significant partnerships with middle-market businesses and strategic investment decisions contribute to MSC Income Fund, Inc.'s earnings.

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and TTM revenue growth are strong (Income Statement score 72) and leverage appears moderate (Balance Sheet score 63), but cash flow quality is a key weakness (Cash Flow score 45) with volatile and recently weakening free cash flow despite positive earnings.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew 13.8% and profitability is strong, with high net margins (about 60%) and solid operating profitability. That said, margins have compressed versus 2024 (net margin ~55.6% to ~60.1% but gross and operating margins down from 2024 levels), and historical revenue growth has been uneven (including a sharp decline in 2022 and negative revenue in 2020), which adds volatility risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate: in 2024 total debt of ~$565M sits against ~$625M of equity (about 0.9x debt-to-equity), and equity has grown alongside assets over time. Returns on equity are steady around ~9–10% (TTM ~10.4%), but the debt load is still meaningful for an asset manager, and some leverage fields appear inconsistent across periods (e.g., debt-to-equity reported as 0.0 in several years), which limits confidence in trend quality.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been volatile. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating and free cash flow were positive (~$18.7M) but down sharply (free cash flow growth -41.7%), and 2024 showed negative operating/free cash flow (~-$28.1M) despite positive earnings. Earlier years swung widely (e.g., very negative in 2021, very positive in 2020/2022/2023), indicating less consistent cash conversion and higher variability in underlying cash movements.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	103.78M	101.75M	74.84M	51.74M	82.38M	-4.35M
Gross Profit	68.94M	62.71M	74.84M	51.74M	82.38M	-4.35M
EBITDA	76.29M	57.66M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	79.16M	56.55M	66.21M	45.59M	73.64M	-9.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.30B	1.22B	1.14B	1.11B	1.14B	888.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.08M	28.38M	30.79M	21.31M	25.81M	8.59M
Total Debt	528.68M	565.14M	484.84M	470.54M	502.87M	301.82M
Total Liabilities	563.75M	599.77M	517.59M	497.50M	530.61M	308.40M
Stockholders Equity	734.36M	624.90M	622.31M	609.66M	613.17M	579.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.66M	-28.08M	50.23M	76.68M	-191.15M	195.82M
Operating Cash Flow	18.66M	-28.08M	50.23M	76.68M	-191.15M	195.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-58.23M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	8.73M	25.66M	-40.76M	-81.18M	167.90M	-168.60M

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.24
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSIF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.03, below the 50-day MA of 13.26, and below the 200-day MA of 14.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MSIF.

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NMFC	67 Neutral	$854.13M	12.69	5.43%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.06B	8.15	8.75%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
MSIF	64 Neutral	$598.58M	7.21	11.70%	8.18%	-31.40%	23.71%
ARCC	62 Neutral	$13.94B	10.44	9.39%	9.64%	10.34%	-24.16%
MRCC	55 Neutral	$135.85M	-31.90	-2.25%	14.03%	-34.92%	-132.22%
TCPC	50 Neutral	$406.39M	-44.24	-1.15%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

MSC Income Fund, Inc. Corporate Events

MSC Income Fund Announces Quarterly Cash Dividends

On November 12, 2025, MSC Income Fund, Inc. announced a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.35 per share and a supplemental quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share, both payable on January 30, 2026. These dividends will be paid from the Fund’s undistributed taxable income as of September 30, 2025. The announcement reflects the company’s strategy to distribute excess taxable income to shareholders, potentially impacting its financial positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSIF) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSC Income Fund, Inc. stock, see the MSIF Stock Forecast page.