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Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQ:MRNA
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Moderna
(NASDAQ:MRNA)
48Neutral
Positive Factors
Cost Reduction Initiative
The company expects a $1 billion reduction in cash costs from 2024 to 2025, which contributes to the goal of cash breakeven by 2028.
Potential Approvals and Market Positioning
Potential approvals in 2025, as well as higher vaccination rates and improved competitive positioning, could provide upside to revenue guidance.
Negative Factors
Litigation and Patent Challenges
ROIV/ABUS have escalated litigation of lipid nanoparticle patent infringement by pursuing MRNA on its mRNA vaccine sales globally.
Product Launch Delays
Break-even goal pushed back by 2 years due to delayed product launches.
Regulatory and Market Challenges
The evolving regulatory environment is seen as negative for primary care vaccine manufacturers, with MRNA being most exposed.
Moderna (MRNA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)10.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth-52.75%
EPS Growth25.00%
CountryUS
Employees5,800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength77
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-9.28
Shares Outstanding385,815,900
10 Day Avg. Volume11,004,862
30 Day Avg. Volume10,119,925
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)3.89
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)3.80
P/FCF Ratio3.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$51.29Price Target Upside104.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering18
Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionModerna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyModerna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA-based vaccines, particularly its COVID-19 vaccine, which has been a major source of income since its emergency use authorization and subsequent approvals worldwide. The company also earns revenues through collaborations and licensing agreements with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, enabling it to advance its research and development initiatives. Additionally, Moderna receives funding from governmental and non-governmental organizations for the development of vaccines and therapeutics. These revenue streams are supplemented by potential future earnings from newly developed products as they receive regulatory approval and enter the market.
Moderna Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Moderna's financial health is mixed with strong equity but declining revenue and profitability. The company faces cash flow challenges and a decreasing asset base, highlighting potential risks. Addressing operational inefficiencies is crucial for long-term resilience.Income Statement
Moderna's income statement shows significant volatility in revenue and profitability. The company experienced a sharp decline in revenue from 2022 to 2024, with a substantial net loss in 2024. Gross profit margin decreased, and the company reported negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in recent years, indicating operational challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a strong equity base, with a high equity ratio indicating financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio increased slightly, reflecting modest leverage. The decreasing trend in total assets and cash reserves raises concerns about long-term liquidity.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Moderna's cash flow statements highlight negative free cash flow and operating cash flow in recent years, suggesting cash management challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio turned unfavorable, reflecting reduced cash efficiency. Despite previous years' strong cash flow, recent trends indicate potential liquidity risks.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 3.24B | 6.85B | 19.26B | 17.74B | 274.49M | Gross Profit |
| 1.77B | 2.15B | 13.85B | 15.12B | 266.56M | EBIT |
| -3.94B | -4.24B | 9.42B | 13.30B | -763.14M | EBITDA |
| -3.39B | -3.28B | 9.77B | 13.53B | -732.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -3.56B | -4.71B | 8.36B | 12.20B | -747.06M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 1.93B | 8.60B | 9.90B | 10.73B | 4.61B | Total Assets |
| 14.14B | 18.43B | 25.86B | 24.67B | 7.34B | Total Debt |
| 710.00M | 1.24B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Net Debt |
| -1.22B | -1.66B | -3.21B | -6.85B | -2.62B | Total Liabilities |
| 3.24B | 4.57B | 6.74B | 10.52B | 4.78B | Stockholders Equity |
| 10.90B | 13.85B | 19.12B | 14.14B | 2.56B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -4.05B | -3.83B | 4.58B | 13.34B | 1.96B | Operating Cash Flow |
| -3.00B | -3.12B | 4.98B | 13.62B | 2.03B | Investing Cash Flow |
| 1.95B | 4.21B | -5.18B | -8.52B | -1.67B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 56.00M | -1.38B | -3.45B | -873.00M | 2.03B |
Moderna Technical Analysis
Negative
25.11
Price Trends
33.72
Negative
37.24
Negative
61.04
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.34
Positive
31.92
Neutral
8.71
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.87, below the 50-day MA of 33.72, and below the 200-day MA of 61.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MRNA.
Moderna Risk Analysis
Moderna disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moderna Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $205.80B | 12.09 | 40.81% | 3.88% | 6.85% | 4577.79% | |
69 Neutral | $74.14B | 22.63 | 19.11% | 4.17% | 6.28% | -47.11% | |
68 Neutral | $130.27B | 16.30 | 9.05% | 7.36% | 8.77% | 272.80% | |
54 Neutral | $21.13B | ― | -3.38% | ― | -27.64% | -172.62% | |
48 Neutral | $6.36B | 1.14 | -49.01% | 2.63% | 17.12% | 1.49% | |
48 Neutral | $9.69B | ― | -28.77% | ― | -52.75% | 25.00% | |
39 Underperform | $1.00B | ― | 30.06% | ― | -30.65% | 77.62% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MRNA
Moderna
25.11
-79.98
-76.11%
GSK
GlaxoSmithKline
36.53
-2.77
-7.05%
MRK
Merck & Company
81.47
-41.45
-33.72%
NVAX
Novavax
6.24
1.81
40.86%
PFE
Pfizer
22.97
-2.04
-8.16%
BNTX
BioNTech SE
88.05
-1.26
-1.41%
Moderna Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 14, 2025 | % Change Since: -21.33% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Moderna's earnings call reflected a challenging year with significant revenue declines and net losses. However, the company demonstrated strong cost-saving measures and maintained a substantial cash position. Progress in the product pipeline and operational efficiency goals offer potential for future growth.Highlights
Significant Cost Reductions
Moderna achieved $2.6 billion in cost savings in 2024, a 27% reduction from 2023, driven by manufacturing footprint resizing, pricing renegotiations, and improved operational efficiencies.
Substantial Cash Position
The company ended 2024 with $9.5 billion in cash and investments, up from $9 billion, due to efficient management of OpEx, CapEx, and working capital.
Progress in Product Pipeline
In 2024, Moderna became a multi-product company with the approval of mRESVIA and positive Phase 3 results in four respiratory vaccine programs. Three products were filed for FDA approval.
Operational Efficiency Goals
Moderna plans to reduce cash costs to $5.5 billion in 2025 and $5 billion in 2026, aiming for over $1 billion in cost reductions.
Lowlights
Significant Revenue Decline
Total revenue for 2024 was $3.2 billion, a 53% decline from 2023, primarily due to lower product sales.
Net Losses
Moderna reported a net loss of $3.6 billion for 2024, compared to $4.7 billion in 2023, with a loss per share of $9.28.
Sales Challenges in Key Markets
The decline in sales volume was attributed to lower vaccination rates, lower market share, and increased competition, particularly impacting the US market.
Inventory Write-Downs
Inventory write-downs and manufacturing resizing charges totaled $739 million for Q4 2024, significantly affecting cost of sales.
Company Guidance
During Moderna's Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call, the company provided detailed financial guidance and updates on their product pipeline. For the fiscal year 2024, Moderna reported revenue of $3.2 billion, achieving cost savings of $2.6 billion compared to 2023, but also posted a net loss of $3.6 billion. They concluded the year with $9.5 billion in cash and investments. The fourth quarter product sales were $0.9 billion, with $0.2 billion from the U.S. and $0.7 billion internationally. The company also discussed their focus on ten high-value programs expected to drive growth, including respiratory vaccines and oncology treatments. For 2025, they anticipate revenue between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, with continued cost management targeting $5.5 billion in cash costs. Moderna's strategic priorities include driving sales of approved products, focusing on late-stage pipeline approvals, and maintaining cost efficiency.Moderna Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Moderna Projects Revenue Growth and Strategic Cost Reduction
Positive
Jan 13, 2025
Moderna announced its 2024 product sales reached $3.0 to 3.1 billion, driven by its COVID-19 vaccine business, and reported a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. Looking ahead, the company plans to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025 and anticipates further cost reductions in 2026. The company expects revenues of $1.5 to 2.5 billion in 2025 and aims for several product approvals and data readouts across its prioritized programs, including vaccines for respiratory viruses and other diseases, with potential significant financial and industry impact.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.