Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.69B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: -56.00%
• EPS Growth: -38.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -2.11
• Shares Outstanding: 394,939,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,652,954
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,878,263
• PEG Ratio: 0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.90
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 73.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.84
• 1Y Price Target: $36.13
• Price Target Upside: -31.05% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): -6.44
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.07B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $60.00 ▲(14.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue base, deep losses, and significant cash burn), partially offset by a low-debt balance sheet. Technicals are a major positive with strong trend and momentum, while valuation support is limited due to losses. The earnings call adds moderate support via cost discipline and a return-to-growth framework, but regulatory risk and H2 timing concentration reduce near-term visibility.

Positive Factors

Proven mRNA platform and commercial launch capability

Moderna’s mRNA platform has shown repeatable commercial execution: MNEXT Spike captured meaningful U.S. retail share on launch, demonstrating product-market fit, scalable manufacturing and commercial capabilities that support long-term commercialization of future mRNA vaccines and therapeutics globally.

Low financial leverage and liquidity buffer

Moderna’s low debt profile and comparatively strong balance sheet provide strategic flexibility to fund R&D, commercial launches and litigation settlements without immediate refinancing pressure, giving runway to execute the pipeline while managing cash burn over the medium term.

Sustained cost reductions and operating discipline

Material operating and COGS cuts indicate a structurally lower cost base and improved operating leverage potential. Persistent efficiency gains reduce the revenue threshold to profitability and improve resiliency to demand variability while preserving investment capacity for key late-stage programs.

Negative Factors

Severe post-pandemic revenue contraction

A multi-year collapse in revenue erodes scale advantages, squeezes fixed-cost absorption and lengthens the timeline to sustainable profitability. Recovery depends on successful launches, international tenders and diversification beyond COVID, leaving execution and timing risk for core revenue restoration.

Persistent negative cash flow and runway pressure

Sustained negative operating and free cash flows are steadily drawing down reserves; guided cash declines toward year-end 2026 increase reliance on either revenue recovery, further cost cuts, or external financing. This dynamic constrains long-term optionality for pipeline funding and strategic deals.

Regulatory unpredictability and event-driven pipeline risk

An RTF for a key vaccine underscores U.S. regulatory uncertainty; divergent regulatory views across jurisdictions can delay U.S. market access and revenue. Heavy reliance on binary clinical readouts and approvals concentrates risk and can materially delay commercialization timelines and revenue recovery.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, most notably its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which has seen significant global demand since its emergency use authorization. The company's revenue model is largely driven by contracts with governments and health organizations for vaccine supply, resulting in substantial upfront payments and milestone payments. Additionally, Moderna engages in collaborations and partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions to develop its mRNA platform for other therapeutic areas, providing additional revenue through collaborative agreements and royalties. As the company expands its pipeline of mRNA-based therapies, potential future revenue streams may include sales from these new products and licensing agreements. Overall, the combination of vaccine sales, partnerships, and a growing pipeline of therapeutics contributes to Moderna's earnings.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are pressured by a sharp post-pandemic revenue contraction and continued large losses, with materially negative operating and free cash flow in 2023–2025. The key offset is a relatively strong, low-leverage balance sheet that provides flexibility, but sustained cash burn and shrinking equity keep the overall financial profile weak.

Income Statement

Revenue has contracted sharply from the pandemic peak (2025 revenue of ~$1.9B vs. ~$18.9B in 2022), with continued declines in 2023–2025. While gross margin remains solid in 2024–2025 (~54–55%), the company is deeply unprofitable: 2023–2025 show large operating and net losses (2025 net margin roughly -145%), reflecting a cost structure that is not yet aligned to the lower revenue base. The main positive is that profitability was very strong in 2021–2022, indicating the model can produce high margins under the right demand conditions—but current earnings power is weak and the trajectory is still negative.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks comparatively strong for a biotech: leverage is modest (debt is well below equity across the period; 2024 debt-to-equity ~0.07), providing financial flexibility. However, equity has trended down materially since 2022 (from ~$19.1B to ~$8.7B in 2025), consistent with sustained losses and cash burn, and returns on equity have been negative in 2023–2024. Overall, low debt is a clear strength, but continued losses are steadily eroding the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has deteriorated significantly: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned meaningfully negative in 2023–2025 (2025 operating cash flow about -$1.9B; free cash flow about -$2.1B), following strong positive cash flows in 2021–2022. Free cash flow also worsened versus the prior year in 2025, signaling ongoing cash burn. A partial offset is that free cash flow has generally moved in line with reported losses (free cash flow to net income above 1 in 2023–2025), but the magnitude of negative cash flow remains a key risk if revenue does not stabilize.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.94B	3.20B	6.85B	18.88B	17.74B
Gross Profit	1.08B	1.74B	2.15B	13.46B	15.12B
EBITDA	-2.55B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B
Net Income	-2.82B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.34B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.80B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B
Total Debt	1.92B	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M
Total Liabilities	3.69B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B
Stockholders Equity	8.65B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.06B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B
Operating Cash Flow	-1.87B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B
Investing Cash Flow	1.95B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B
Financing Cash Flow	593.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 52.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.81, above the 50-day MA of 46.42, and above the 200-day MA of 32.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PTGX	62 Neutral	$6.20B	-42.66	-19.89%	―	-35.39%	-72.97%
RVMD	59 Neutral	$19.44B	-13.39	-63.10%	―	-100.00%	-44.24%
MRNA	58 Neutral	$20.69B	-4.07	-30.15%	―	-56.00%	-38.95%
RYTM	52 Neutral	$5.86B	-35.39	-179.05%	―	54.92%	28.47%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
IONS	50 Neutral	$11.84B	-33.22	-68.82%	―	20.39%	34.00%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna Reaches Major Patent Settlement on mRNA Vaccines

On March 3, 2026, Moderna entered into a settlement agreement with Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences to resolve all worldwide patent litigation related to Spikevax, mRESVIA and its broader infectious disease portfolio. The deal grants Moderna a fully paid-up, royalty-free, irrevocable worldwide license for SM-102-based LNP infectious disease vaccines and a covenant not to sue, eliminating future royalty obligations on key products.

Under the agreement, Moderna will make a $950 million noncontingent lump-sum payment to Arbutus/Genevant by July 8, 2026, and both sides will move to dismiss or withdraw outstanding claims with prejudice. A further contingent payment of up to $1.3 billion hinges on the outcome of Moderna’s appeal to the Federal Circuit over the applicability of 28 U.S.C. § 1498 to doses sold to the U.S. government, with mechanisms for prorated payment, potential repayment with interest, and binding arbitration if needed.

The settlement removes significant legal uncertainty around Moderna’s current and future infectious disease vaccines and clarifies its financial exposure tied to past government-supplied doses. By securing long-term freedom to operate on SM-102-based LNP formulations, Moderna strengthens its strategic positioning in the competitive mRNA vaccines market and provides greater visibility to stakeholders on litigation risk and cash commitments.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Faces FDA Setback on mRNA Flu Vaccine

On February 10, 2026, Moderna disclosed that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research issued a Refusal-to-File letter on February 3, 2026 for its biologics license application for the investigational seasonal influenza vaccine mRNA-1010, declining to initiate review because the Phase 3 trial used a licensed standard-dose influenza vaccine comparator that regulators now say does not reflect the best-available standard of care. The decision, which did not raise safety or efficacy concerns and diverged from earlier FDA feedback on trial design, leaves Moderna seeking a Type A meeting to clarify a path forward even as mRNA-1010 remains under review in the EU, Canada and Australia based on two Phase 3 studies showing statistical superiority over comparators, and the company maintains that the U.S. setback will not affect its 2026 financial guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Sell with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna updates 2025 outlook and highlights pipeline progress

On January 12, 2026, Moderna reported that it expected unaudited 2025 revenue of about $1.9 billion—slightly above prior guidance—alongside improved projected 2025 GAAP operating expenses of $5.0–$5.2 billion and an estimated year-end 2025 cash balance of $8.1 billion, supported in part by a $1.5 billion term loan facility. The company reiterated a framework of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, further operating expense reductions through 2027 on a path to cash breakeven in 2028, and highlighted progress in its late-stage pipeline, including its approved mNEXSPIKE COVID vaccine, regulatory submissions and studies for RSV, flu, flu/COVID combination and norovirus vaccines, as well as advancing oncology candidates such as mRNA-4157 and mRNA-4359 and rare disease programs mRNA-3927 and mRNA-3705, underpinned by new funding support from Ares Management and CEPI for its H5 pandemic influenza candidate.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Highlights 2025 Progress and Strengthened Vaccine Portfolio

In a January 5, 2026 letter to shareholders, Moderna reviewed a challenging 2025 operating environment in the U.S. but highlighted strong execution that yielded three approved commercial products, multiple new regulatory approvals and a more stable seasonal vaccine business. The company reported that mNEXSPIKE’s U.S. launch in 2025 rapidly made it the leading product in the retail COVID-19 channel, accounting for roughly a quarter of all U.S. retail COVID vaccinations and nearly a third among adults 65 and older, while long-term public-sector and international partnerships in the UK, Canada, Australia, Brazil and Taiwan strengthened revenue visibility and global access to its mRNA vaccines. Moderna advanced its pipeline with U.S. approvals and label expansions for its COVID-19 and RSV vaccines, positive Phase 3 data and global submissions for its flu and flu/COVID combination candidates, continued progress of its personalized cancer therapy intismeran autogene and other oncology programs, and key milestones in rare disease candidates mRNA-3927 and mRNA-3705. At the same time, the company tightened financial discipline, cutting GAAP operating expenses from $11.1 billion in 2023 to an expected level below $5.5 billion in 2025, securing a $1.5 billion term loan facility, and targeting cash breakeven in 2028, while increasingly using AI tools to improve R&D, forecasting and operations as it enters 2026 positioned for its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.