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Novavax (NVAX)
NASDAQ:NVAX
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Novavax
(NASDAQ:NVAX)40Underperform
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Novavax reported 4Q24 revenue that exceeded Street consensus estimates, reflecting positively on the company's financial performance.
Partnerships
The strategic partnership and milestone payments with SNY are expected to bring substantial financial benefits to Novavax, enhancing its business prospects.
Negative Factors
Investor Sentiment
The biggest hurdle to increased investor interest in Novavax is forgetting the company's complex past, including challenges such as selling a vaccine with shelf-life problems.
Novavax (NVAX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.01
Revenue Growth-30.65%
EPS Growth77.62%
CountryUS
Employees1,543
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength74
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.32
Shares Outstanding160,844,200
10 Day Avg. Volume6,154,409
30 Day Avg. Volume4,356,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.81
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1.80
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.20Price Target Upside105.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNovavax, Inc. is a late-stage biotechnology company, which focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. It produces vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats by using the proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology. Its vaccine candidates include ResVax and NanoFlu. It also develops immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants through its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary, Novavax AB. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.
How the Company Makes MoneyNovavax generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines to governments and health organizations around the world. The company earns money from product sales, government contracts, and grants, as well as collaborations and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. A significant portion of its revenue is derived from sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, particularly through agreements with various countries and international health agencies. Additionally, partnerships with organizations such as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and funding from government entities have been crucial in supporting Novavax's research and development efforts, contributing to its overall earnings.
Novavax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Novavax is facing significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative equity. While there is some revenue growth, the company's profitability and liquidity remain major concerns. The cash flow situation is slightly improved, but still negative, casting doubts on long-term sustainability without strategic financial restructuring or profitability improvements.Income Statement
Novavax has shown some revenue improvement from 2023 to 2024, with a growth rate of approximately 22.58%. However, the company is still struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins. Gross profit margin is reasonably positive at around 70.26% for 2024. The persistent losses suggest challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity. Despite an improvement in cash reserves, overall liabilities exceed total assets, leading to a precarious financial position.25
Negative
Cash Flow
Novavax's cash flow situation shows some improvement, with operating cash flow reducing in negativity, but free cash flow remains negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful given the negative net income. Financing activities have provided a cash influx, but sustainability is a concern.30
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 885.19M | 682.16M | 556.38M | 1.60B | 1.15B | 475.60M | Gross Profit |
| 590.85M | 479.42M | 212.61M | 696.31M | 1.13B | -271.43M | EBIT |
| -295.32M | -248.93M | -566.51M | -644.74M | -1.69B | -416.72M | EBITDA |
| -216.35M | -248.93M | -487.39M | -604.71M | -1.68B | -398.23M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -284.86M | -187.50M | -545.06M | -657.94M | -1.74B | -427.50M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 70.15M | 923.12M | 568.50M | 1.34B | 1.52B | 711.05M | Total Assets |
| 207.98M | 1.56B | 1.80B | 2.26B | 2.58B | 1.58B | Total Debt |
| 319.19M | 230.42M | 229.08M | 549.78M | 453.99M | 322.04M | Net Debt |
| 249.03M | -299.81M | -339.42M | -787.10M | -1.06B | -231.36M | Total Liabilities |
| 375.91M | 2.18B | 2.51B | 2.89B | 2.93B | 955.27M | Stockholders Equity |
| -167.94M | -623.84M | -716.93M | -634.08M | -351.67M | 627.21M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -111.08M | -100.32M | -772.77M | -508.92M | 265.46M | -97.16M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -90.88M | -87.26M | -713.97M | -415.94M | 322.95M | -42.54M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -357.12M | -204.04M | -58.81M | -92.98M | 100.15M | -377.78M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 364.39M | 260.58M | 4.47M | 324.99M | 461.71M | 984.76M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Negative
7.89
Price Trends
8.48
Negative
8.92
Negative
11.30
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
47.70
Neutral
49.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.92, below the 50-day MA of 8.48, and below the 200-day MA of 11.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.
Novavax Risk Analysis
Novavax disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Novavax Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $145.93B | 18.28 | 9.05% | 6.56% | 8.77% | 272.80% | |
56 Neutral | $26.29B | ― | -2.37% | ― | -52.11% | -118.03% | |
55 Neutral | $107.03M | ― | -103.37% | ― | 303.27% | 36.35% | |
49 Neutral | $7.05B | 0.34 | -55.09% | 2.46% | 25.27% | -3.43% | |
48 Neutral | $11.72B | ― | -28.77% | ― | -52.75% | 25.00% | |
43 Neutral | $2.00B | ― | -46.67% | ― | 18.82% | 19.76% | |
40 Underperform | $1.24B | ― | 30.06% | ― | -30.65% | 77.62% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NVAX
Novavax
7.89
2.28
40.64%
PFE
Pfizer
25.94
0.35
1.37%
NVCR
NovoCure
19.15
2.50
15.02%
VXRT
Vaxart
0.47
-0.73
-60.83%
MRNA
Moderna
35.21
-62.89
-64.11%
BNTX
BioNTech SE
114.77
23.38
25.58%
Novavax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: 7.79% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights several positive strategic moves by Novavax, including a significant partnership with Sanofi, financial improvements, and new pipeline initiatives. However, these are counterbalanced by challenges such as declining revenues, dependence on Sanofi for future success, and regulatory uncertainties.Highlights
Strategic Partnership with Sanofi
Novavax announced a wide-ranging partnership agreement with Sanofi, receiving an initial cash payment of $500 million upfront and a $70 million equity investment. Sanofi will take the lead commercialization role for Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine starting this year.
Financial Improvements and Cost Reductions
Novavax reduced its current liabilities by $1.3 billion over the last two years and significantly reduced combined R&D and SG&A expenses. They are on track to decrease expenses by approximately 85% by 2027 compared to their 2022 baseline.
New Early-Stage Pipeline Initiatives
Novavax added four new early-stage assets focused on C. Diff, varicella-zoster virus, pandemic flu, and a triple RSV combination. Preclinical data from these programs are expected in the second half of the year.
Sale of Czech Republic Facility
The sale of the Czech Republic manufacturing facility for $200 million helped reduce annual operating costs by approximately $80 million.
Lowlights
Revenue Decline
In Q4 2024, Novavax reported total revenue of $88 million compared to $291 million in the same period in 2023, reflecting a significant decline.
Dependence on Sanofi for Future Revenues
Novavax's path to profitability relies heavily on the successful commercialization and execution by Sanofi, including achieving milestone payments and royalties.
Uncertainty in Regulatory Approvals
There is ongoing work to gain regulatory approval for the COVID-19 vaccine, with the BLA action date set for April. The outcome of regulatory interactions remains uncertain.
Company Guidance
During the Novavax Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic developments. Novavax reported total revenue of $682 million for the year, with $190 million from product sales and $492 million from licensing and royalties. They successfully reduced their R&D and SG&A expenses by 40% compared to 2023, targeting further reductions in 2025. The company achieved significant milestones, including the sale of a Czech Republic manufacturing facility for $200 million, which contributed to reducing operating costs by $80 million annually. Novavax also decreased current liabilities by $1.3 billion over two years. Moving forward, the company anticipates 2025 as a transition year, focusing on a partnership with Sanofi, which includes potential milestone payments totaling $225 million and royalties in the high-teens to low 20% range. The company aims for profitability by 2027 with a breakeven revenue target of $225 million, supported by continued cost reductions and strategic partnerships.Novavax Corporate Events
Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Novavax to Present Strategic Plans at Health Conference
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025
On March 4, 2025, Novavax will update investors at the TD Cowen 45th Annual Health Care Conference about its strategic and business plans, including the transition of COVID-19 vaccine commercialization to Sanofi for the 2025-2026 season. The company aims to advance its vaccine pipeline and expand partnerships, but faces challenges such as regulatory approvals and manufacturing constraints, which could impact its financial and operational performance.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Novavax Shares Strategic Updates at Healthcare Conference
Neutral
Jan 13, 2025
Novavax announced plans to provide strategic and business updates at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. The company is working on various initiatives, including new partnerships and the development of their COVID-19 vaccine, along with other product candidates. Despite challenges such as regulatory hurdles and manufacturing constraints, Novavax aims to enhance its market position through innovations and partnerships. Preliminary financial data for 2024 was shared, with caution advised due to potential changes before final results. The use of non-GAAP financial measures was highlighted to provide insights into the company’s financial trends.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.