Novavax (NVAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.72M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.77
• Revenue Growth: -30.65%
• EPS Growth: 77.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 74
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.32
• Shares Outstanding: 160,844,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,460,018
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,719,251
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -1.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $14.75
• Price Target Upside: 118.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

Novavax's stock score is low due to significant financial instability, ongoing losses, and dependency on strategic partnerships for future success. While strategic partnerships and cost-cutting efforts are positive, the overall financial health and market performance remain concerning.

Positive Factors

Financial Milestone

Full FDA approval is a meaningful milestone for Novavax given the anticipated $175MM payment from Sanofi tied to approval of the U.S. BLA.

Market Share

Expert feedback anticipates Novavax COVID-19 vaccine market share gains.

Partnerships

The partnership with Sanofi is expected to be the main contributor to Novavax's growth and is a key value-driver.

Negative Factors

Execution Risks

Execution and competitive risks remain a concern despite the positive aspects of the company's strategy.

Investor Concerns

The biggest hurdle to increased investor interest in Novavax is forgetting the company's complex past, including challenges such as selling a vaccine with shelf-life problems.

Regulatory Delays

FDA had missed the PDUFA date for its SNY partnered COVID-19 vaccine.

Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company dedicated to the development and commercialization of innovative vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. Headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland, Novavax focuses on leveraging its recombinant nanoparticle technology and proprietary adjuvant to create vaccines that address global health needs. The company is primarily known for its work on vaccines for diseases such as COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

How the Company Makes Money

Novavax generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines to governments and health organizations around the world. The company earns money from product sales, government contracts, and grants, as well as collaborations and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. A significant portion of its revenue is derived from sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, particularly through agreements with various countries and international health agencies. Additionally, partnerships with organizations such as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and funding from government entities have been crucial in supporting Novavax's research and development efforts, contributing to its overall earnings.

Novavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novavax is facing significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative equity. While there is some revenue growth, the company's profitability and liquidity remain major concerns. The cash flow situation is slightly improved, but still negative, casting doubts on long-term sustainability without strategic financial restructuring or profitability improvements.

Income Statement

Novavax has shown some revenue improvement from 2023 to 2024, with a growth rate of approximately 22.58%. However, the company is still struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins. Gross profit margin is reasonably positive at around 70.26% for 2024. The persistent losses suggest challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity. Despite an improvement in cash reserves, overall liabilities exceed total assets, leading to a precarious financial position.

Cash Flow

Novavax's cash flow situation shows some improvement, with operating cash flow reducing in negativity, but free cash flow remains negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful given the negative net income. Financing activities have provided a cash influx, but sustainability is a concern.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
682.16M	556.38M	1.60B	1.15B	475.60M
	Gross Profit
479.42M	212.61M	696.31M	1.13B	-271.43M
	EBIT
-248.93M	-566.51M	-644.74M	-1.69B	-416.72M
	EBITDA
-108.04M	-487.39M	-604.71M	-1.68B	-398.23M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-187.50M	-545.06M	-657.94M	-1.74B	-427.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
923.12M	568.50M	1.34B	1.52B	711.05M
	Total Assets
1.56B	1.80B	2.26B	2.58B	1.58B
	Total Debt
230.42M	229.08M	549.78M	453.99M	322.04M
	Net Debt
-299.81M	-339.42M	-787.10M	-1.06B	-231.36M
	Total Liabilities
2.18B	2.51B	2.89B	2.93B	955.27M
	Stockholders Equity
-623.84M	-716.93M	-634.08M	-351.67M	627.21M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-100.32M	-772.77M	-508.92M	265.46M	-97.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
-87.26M	-713.97M	-415.94M	322.95M	-42.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
-204.04M	-58.81M	-92.98M	100.15M	-377.78M
	Financing Cash Flow
260.58M	4.47M	324.99M	461.71M	984.76M

Novavax Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.12, below the 50-day MA of 7.69, and below the 200-day MA of 10.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.28 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.

Novavax Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PFE	68 Neutral	$127.55B	15.96	9.05%	7.74%	8.77%	272.80%
BNTX	54 Neutral	$20.83B	―	-3.38%	―	-27.64%	-172.62%
VXRT	49 Neutral	$71.00M	―	-114.71%	―	288.94%	39.45%
MRNA	48 Neutral	$10.29B	―	-28.77%	―	-52.75%	25.00%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.36B	1.24	-44.94%	2.70%	18.33%	1.47%
NVCR	43 Neutral	$1.86B	―	-46.67%	―	18.82%	19.76%
NVAX	39 Underperform	$1.05B	―	30.06%	―	-30.65%	77.62%

Novavax Corporate Events

Novavax Announces Board Changes and Strategic Shift

On March 10, 2025, Novavax announced the resignation of James F. Young, Ph.D. from its Board of Directors, with no disagreements cited. Margaret G. McGlynn was appointed as the new Chairperson, and John W. Shiver, Ph.D. joined as a Class III director and member of the Research and Development Committee. Dr. Shiver brings over 30 years of experience in vaccine development, enhancing the board’s expertise. This transition marks a strategic shift for Novavax, as it continues to focus on partnerships and leveraging its technology platform for growth.

Novavax Faces Contract Termination with Canadian Government

On March 7, 2025, Novavax received a notice terminating its advanced purchase agreement with the Canadian government due to the company’s failure to obtain regulatory approval for its COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2024. As a result, Novavax will recognize $576 million as product revenue in the first quarter of 2025, but must refund $28 million in advanced payments to Canada. Additionally, a proposed memorandum of understanding related to in-country commitments is no longer feasible, allowing Novavax to release related funds.

Novavax to Present Strategic Plans at Health Conference

On March 4, 2025, Novavax will update investors at the TD Cowen 45th Annual Health Care Conference about its strategic and business plans, including the transition of COVID-19 vaccine commercialization to Sanofi for the 2025-2026 season. The company aims to advance its vaccine pipeline and expand partnerships, but faces challenges such as regulatory approvals and manufacturing constraints, which could impact its financial and operational performance.

Novavax Shares Strategic Updates at Healthcare Conference

Novavax announced plans to provide strategic and business updates at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. The company is working on various initiatives, including new partnerships and the development of their COVID-19 vaccine, along with other product candidates. Despite challenges such as regulatory hurdles and manufacturing constraints, Novavax aims to enhance its market position through innovations and partnerships. Preliminary financial data for 2024 was shared, with caution advised due to potential changes before final results. The use of non-GAAP financial measures was highlighted to provide insights into the company’s financial trends.