Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $793.59M
• Dividend Yield: 2.58%
• Average Volume (3M): 162.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 12.09%
• EPS Growth: -15.97%
• Country: US
• Employees: 600
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.83
• Shares Outstanding: 25,153,465
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 131,026
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 162,787
• PEG Ratio: -1.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.24
• 1Y Price Target: $37.00
• Price Target Upside: 17.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.44
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $287.40M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(4.60% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/13/26

The score is led by solid financial stability (notably low leverage and solid margins) and supportive valuation (moderate P/E with a solid dividend). These positives are tempered by a major near-term concern in 2025 cash flow turning negative and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while corporate actions are a modest positive tailwind.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage and stronger capital

A very low debt-to-equity (~0.07 in 2025) and meaningful equity growth provide a durable capital buffer that supports lending capacity, regulatory resilience, and room for measured organic growth or acquisitions without stressing funding. This structural strength reduces balance-sheet risk over the next several quarters.

Expanded net interest margin and efficiency gains

Sustained NIM expansion to 3.79% and a materially improved efficiency ratio (down to ~59% for the year) indicate the bank is capturing funding/loan repricing benefits and managing expenses. These margin and cost improvements are structural drivers of recurring profitability that support earnings durability beyond near-term cycles.

Strategic M&A expands footprint and capabilities

Completion of the 1st Colonial deal materially expands Mid Penn's geographic scale into the Philadelphia metro and, combined with the Cumberland Advisors purchase, meaningfully broadens wealth management capabilities. These structural moves enhance deposit diversity, fee-income mix, and local market share over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow in 2025

A sharp reversal to negative operating and free cash flow in 2025 breaks years of positive conversion and raises persistent questions about cash generation quality. Weak cash flow constrains internally fundable growth, dividend flexibility, and integration costs for acquisitions, increasing funding and execution risk over coming quarters.

Revenue growth cooled and modest decline in 2025

A modest revenue decline indicates organic growth momentum has cooled and raises reliance on acquisitions to maintain top-line growth. Over the medium term this can pressure ability to scale core bank earnings, making sustainable loan origination, deposit gathering, and fee-income expansion more critical and potentially more challenging.

ROE remains low relative to equity growth

ROE near mid-to-high single digits despite equity growth suggests the bank has not fully translated stronger capital into higher shareholder returns. Persistently muted ROE can limit long-term earnings leverage per share and indicates execution or mix headwinds that may persist while integrating acquisitions and rebuilding organic profitability.

Mid Penn Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Mid Penn Bank that provides commercial banking services to individuals, partnerships, non-profit organizations, and corporations. The company offers various time and demand deposit products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, clubs, money market deposit accounts, certificates of deposit, and IRAs. It also provides a range of loan products comprising mortgage and home equity loans, secured and unsecured commercial and consumer loans, lines of credit, construction financing, farm loans, community development loans, loans to non-profit entities, and local government loans. In addition, the company offers online banking, telephone banking, cash management, and automated teller services, as well as safe deposit boxes; and trust and wealth management services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated sixty full-service retail banking locations in Berks, Blair, Bucks, Centre, Chester, Clearfield, Cumberland, Dauphin, Fayette, Huntingdon, Lancaster, Lehigh, Luzerne, Lycoming, Montgomery, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, and Westmoreland counties, Pennsylvania. The company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Mid Penn Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by (1) earning net interest income and (2) generating noninterest income, while incurring operating costs and credit losses typical of a commercial bank. 1) Net interest income (core earnings driver): The bank collects interest and fees on interest-earning assets—primarily loans (such as commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, residential mortgage, and consumer loans) and securities—and pays interest on its funding sources—primarily customer deposits (including interest-bearing checking, savings, money market accounts, and time deposits) and, when used, wholesale borrowings. The difference between interest earned and interest paid is net interest income. This spread is influenced by loan growth and mix, the yield on loans and investment securities, deposit mix (e.g., proportion of noninterest-bearing vs. interest-bearing deposits), funding costs, and broader interest-rate conditions. 2) Noninterest income (fees and service-based revenue): The bank also earns revenue from fees and other sources tied to providing banking services. Common sources for community banks include service charges and fees on deposit accounts, debit/ATM-related fees, wealth or trust-related fees (if offered), and gains or fees from mortgage-related activities or loan sales/servicing (if conducted). Specific line-item amounts or the materiality of each category for MPB are null. 3) Other factors affecting profitability: Earnings are reduced by provision for credit losses (driven by loan performance and economic conditions) and by noninterest expense (personnel, occupancy, technology, regulatory/compliance, and other operating costs). Like other banks, results can also be affected by acquisition activity, balance-sheet repositioning, and changes in market values/yields of investment securities, but specific partnerships or unique arrangements are null.

Mid Penn Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a clear positive (very low recent leverage and steady mid-to-high single-digit ROE), and profitability remains solid with ~17% net margin. However, 2025 operating cash flow/free cash flow turned negative after multiple years of positive conversion, and revenue dipped modestly, making cash-flow volatility the key drag.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2020–2024, but 2025 showed a modest decline (-2.3%), suggesting growth has cooled. Profitability remains solid with a 2025 net margin of ~17.2% and improved EBIT margin (~22.1%) versus 2024, but margins are well below the exceptionally strong 2022 level, indicating some normalization/pressure over time. Net income continues to rise overall versus earlier years, though the pace appears less consistent recently.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative in the most recent period, with debt-to-equity down to ~0.07 in 2025 (improving from 2024 and sharply better than 2023). Equity has grown meaningfully over the period, supporting a larger asset base, and return on equity has been relatively steady in the mid-to-high single digits (~6.9% in 2025). The main watch item is profitability efficiency: ROE is below the 2022 peak, so improved balance-sheet strength has not fully translated into higher shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened materially in 2025, with operating cash flow and free cash flow turning negative (both -$17.7M), a sharp reversal from positive free cash flow in 2020–2024. In prior years, free cash flow generally covered net income well (roughly ~0.74–0.95 of net income), supporting earnings quality; 2025 breaks that pattern and raises questions about near-term cash conversion and volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	326.93M	306.71M	254.38M	187.25M	143.83M
Gross Profit	200.96M	174.66M	161.72M	165.18M	126.13M
EBITDA	77.41M	66.86M	51.55M	73.82M	40.73M
Net Income	56.25M	49.44M	37.40M	54.81M	29.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.13B	5.47B	5.29B	4.50B	4.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.14M	311.97M	303.66M	296.08M	250.49M
Total Debt	59.38M	79.44M	356.17M	71.08M	166.91M
Total Liabilities	5.32B	4.82B	4.75B	3.99B	4.20B
Stockholders Equity	814.06M	655.02M	542.35M	512.10M	490.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	65.35M	44.47M	49.57M	55.74M	62.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-17.72M	51.39M	52.34M	59.99M	65.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.82M	-208.74M	-408.93M	-704.71M	169.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-58.20M	131.16M	392.47M	-208.15M	374.76M

Mid Penn Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 31.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 31.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.46, below the 50-day MA of 32.45, and above the 200-day MA of 29.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MPB.

Mid Penn Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FSBC	76 Outperform	$786.43M	12.33	13.95%	2.18%	22.24%	18.63%
BFST	71 Outperform	$861.92M	8.79	10.19%	2.12%	17.99%	11.08%
THFF	70 Outperform	$730.88M	8.35	13.02%	3.19%	16.57%	69.64%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ORRF	67 Neutral	$678.65M	6.86	14.41%	2.93%	47.65%	101.00%
GSBC	62 Neutral	$672.37M	9.89	11.33%	2.48%	0.67%	17.88%
MPB	61 Neutral	$793.59M	12.77	7.31%	2.58%	12.09%	-15.97%

Mid Penn Bancorp Corporate Events

Mid Penn Bancorp Completes Acquisition of 1st Colonial Bancorp

Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. announced that it completed its acquisition of 1st Colonial Bancorp, Inc. after the close of business on February 27, 2026, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $106.1 million, merging 1st Colonial Community Bank into Mid Penn Bank. The transaction, disclosed in a March 2, 2026 release, expands Mid Penn’s footprint in the greater Philadelphia metropolitan area and southern New Jersey and brings the combined company’s consolidated assets to roughly $7 billion.

As part of the merger, former 1st Colonial director Thomas R. Brugger, a veteran banking executive with more than 30 years of industry experience and prior CFO roles at several regional banks, was appointed a Class A director of Mid Penn and Mid Penn Bank at the effective time of the transaction. Brugger joined the Mid Penn Board’s Audit and Risk Committees and the Mid Penn Bank Board’s Trust Committee and will receive the standard compensation and equity-related eligibility afforded to Mid Penn’s non-employee directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPB) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid Penn Bancorp stock, see the MPB Stock Forecast page.

Mid Penn Bancorp Shareholders Approve 1st Colonial Merger

On February 11, 2026, Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. and 1st Colonial Bancorp, Inc. reported that 1st Colonial shareholders overwhelmingly approved their previously announced merger agreement dated September 24, 2025. More than 80% of outstanding 1st Colonial shares were represented at the special virtual meeting, and over 99% of votes cast supported the merger, eliminating the need to consider an adjournment proposal.

The transaction, once completed, is expected to significantly extend Mid Penn’s footprint in the Greater Philadelphia market and deepen its reach in Southeastern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey. On a pro forma basis following the merger, Mid Penn projected that it would hold approximately $7.5 billion in assets as of March 31, 2026, potentially strengthening its competitive position and scale in the regional banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPB) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid Penn Bancorp stock, see the MPB Stock Forecast page.

Mid Penn Bancorp Advances Acquisition of 1st Colonial Bancorp

On February 6, 2026, Mid Penn Bancorp and 1st Colonial Bancorp announced that they had received all required bank regulatory approvals for Mid Penn’s previously announced acquisition of 1st Colonial in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $101 million, with closing targeted for the first quarter of 2026 pending 1st Colonial shareholder approval and other customary conditions. The transaction, after which 1st Colonial will be merged into Mid Penn Bank, is expected to extend Mid Penn’s footprint further into the greater Philadelphia metropolitan area and deepen its presence in southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, positioning the combined bank at approximately $7.5 billion in assets as of March 31, 2026 and potentially strengthening its competitive scale and market reach in those regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPB) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid Penn Bancorp stock, see the MPB Stock Forecast page.

Mid Penn Bancorp Reports Strong Q4 Earnings, Raises Dividends

On January 21, 2026, Mid Penn Bancorp reported that fourth-quarter 2025 net income available to common shareholders rose 47% year over year to $19.4 million, or $0.84 per basic share, while full-year 2025 net income reached $56.2 million despite earnings-per-share dilution from a higher share count following the William Penn acquisition. The bank posted a sharply higher net interest margin of 3.79% in the fourth quarter, supported by improved deposit costs and loan yields, and recorded solid loan growth to $4.9 billion and deposit growth to $5.2 billion versus year-end 2024, though organic loan balances were essentially flat and organic deposits declined when excluding acquisition and planned brokered CD reductions. Efficiency metrics improved significantly, with the core efficiency ratio falling to 55.26% in the fourth quarter and tangible book value per share rising, prompting the board to declare Mid Penn’s 61st consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.22 per common share and a special dividend of $0.05 per share, both payable on February 17, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 6, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPB) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid Penn Bancorp stock, see the MPB Stock Forecast page.

Mid Penn Bancorp Appoints Dana Stewart as Chief Operating Officer

On January 8, 2026, Mid Penn Bank announced it had hired veteran banker Dana R. Stewart as first executive vice president and chief operating officer, effective January 5, 2026, tasking him with leading the bank’s loan and deposit operations and reporting directly to President and CEO Rory Ritrievi. Stewart, who brings more than 35 years of financial services experience from senior roles at First National Bank and BNY Mellon, is expected to strengthen Mid Penn’s operational capabilities, strategic execution and transformation initiatives as the bank pursues disciplined growth, while former COO Jordan D. Space shifts his focus to leading the Private Bank and overseeing MPB Financial Services, LLC and its nonbank subsidiaries.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPB) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid Penn Bancorp stock, see the MPB Stock Forecast page.

Mid Penn Bancorp Completes Acquisition of Cumberland Advisors

On January 1, 2026, Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. completed its acquisition of Sarasota, Florida-based Cumberland Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisory firm founded in 1973 with approximately $3.2 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025. Cumberland, known for its conservative, fee-for-service investment management for advisors, individuals and institutional clients, was merged into a newly formed Mid Penn acquisition subsidiary and now operates as Cumberland Advisors, LLC, with its team of investment advisory professionals joining Mid Penn. The transaction consideration for Cumberland shareholders consisted of a mix of Mid Penn common stock and cash, with most shares converted into Mid Penn stock, plus the potential for additional cash via an earn-out and cash-settled stock appreciation rights to be exercised over the first three years after closing, underscoring Mid Penn’s push to expand its wealth and investment management capabilities alongside its core banking operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPB) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mid Penn Bancorp stock, see the MPB Stock Forecast page.