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ModivCare (MODVQ)
OTHER OTC:MODVQ
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ModivCare
(OTC:MODVQ)
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Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
$0.00
▼(-100.00% Downside)
ModivCare's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The company's negative profitability and liquidity issues, combined with a lack of positive valuation metrics, present significant risks. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events leaves these concerns unmitigated.
Positive Factors
Business Model Strength
The company's focus on technology-enabled healthcare services for vulnerable populations positions it well in a growing market, enhancing its long-term business prospects.
Revenue Streams
Stable revenue streams from government contracts provide a reliable income base, supporting long-term financial stability and growth potential.
Market Position
Strong partnerships enhance ModivCare's market position, enabling comprehensive service delivery and competitive advantage in the healthcare sector.
Negative Factors
Financial Challenges
Ongoing financial challenges, including declining revenue and high leverage, threaten long-term sustainability and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet Health
A weak balance sheet with high leverage and negative equity raises concerns about financial stability and the ability to withstand economic downturns.
Cash Flow Issues
Persistent negative cash flows highlight liquidity issues, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and meet financial obligations.
ModivCare (MODVQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$143.54K
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)69.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth-0.70%
EPS Growth-2.38%
CountryUS
Employees23,675
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding14,353,820
10 Day Avg. Volume34,402
30 Day Avg. Volume69,417
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)-4.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio-4.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.00
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.65B
ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionModivCare Inc., a technology-enabled healthcare services company, provides a suite of integrated supportive care solutions for public and private payors and patients. The company operates through four segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), Personal Care, Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM), and the Matrix Investment. The NEMT segment offers contact center management, network credentialing, claims management, and non-emergency medical transport management services for Medicaid or Medicare eligible members, whose limited mobility or financial resources hinder their ability to access necessary healthcare and social services. The Personal Care segment provides bathing, personal hygiene, grooming, oral care, dressing, medication reminders, meal planning, preparation and feeding, housekeeping, transportation services, prescription reminders, and assistance with dressing and ambulation services through placing non-medical personal care assistants, home health aides, and skilled nurses primarily to Medicaid patients in need of care monitoring and assistance in performing daily living activities, including senior citizens and disabled adults. The RPM segment offers personal emergency response systems, vitals monitoring, medication management, and data-driven patient engagement solutions. The Matrix Investment segment provides in-home and on-site care services, as well as a fleet of mobile health clinics that offers community-based care with advanced diagnostic capabilities and care options. It serves federal, state, and local government agencies, MCOs, commercial insurers, private individuals, and health systems. The company was formerly known as The Providence Service Corporation and changed its name to ModivCare Inc. in January 2021. ModivCare Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyModivCare generates revenue primarily through contracts with state Medicaid programs and other governmental entities, which pay for the transportation services provided to eligible beneficiaries. The company also earns income from personal care services, which are billed on a per-hour or per-visit basis, depending on the service agreement. Additionally, revenue is generated from remote patient monitoring services, where clients pay for technology solutions and ongoing patient engagement support. Significant partnerships with healthcare providers, managed care organizations, and government agencies further bolster ModivCare's revenue streams, enhancing their ability to deliver comprehensive, integrated healthcare services.
ModivCare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strategic contract wins, digital transformation progress, and cost reduction initiatives being positive aspects. However, revenue decline, increased net loss, and negative free cash flow are significant challenges. While there are promising strategic initiatives underway, financial performance in the short term remains challenging.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Contract Wins
Secured two new Medicaid managed care contracts in the Southwest and Pacific regions with a combined annual contract value of approximately $52 million. Additionally, submitted four state contract renewals totaling over $246 million in annual contract value.
Digital Transformation Progress
Self-service call-to-trip ratio increased to 36.1% from 31% a year ago, with digital reservations supported by API integration and channel enhancements. Automated intake and trip adjudication reduced unit costs by 1.2% year-over-year.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Launched a company-wide G&A reduction initiative targeting approximately $25 million in annualized savings. Structural realignment and cost-saving measures implemented in late 2024 and early 2025 are expected to drive additional savings.
Improved Operational Efficiency
Implemented a full operating restructure in the NEMT segment, integrating trip operations under unified regional leadership, enhancing decision speed and financial accountability.
Monitoring Segment Growth
Increased Medicaid LTSS referrals by 45% year-over-year in Indiana and launched additional programs in new states. Operating under three active condition-based monitoring contracts.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue for the quarter was $650.7 million, down 5% year-over-year and 2% sequentially. Decline attributed to known NEMT contract attrition, lower billed hours in PCS, and membership churn in monitoring.
Increased Net Loss
Net loss for the quarter was $50.4 million, up from $22.3 million a year ago, primarily due to higher interest expenses, which rose to $38.8 million.
Contract Losses
Experienced the loss of a regional contract totaling $15 million in annual revenue due to a national plan's decision to consolidate vendors.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was negative at $86.2 million, largely due to working capital build from timing of accounts payable, contract transitions, and higher interest expense.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter 2025 financial results conference call, ModivCare Inc. outlined several key metrics and strategic objectives guiding its operations. Revenue for the quarter was reported at $650.7 million, representing a 5% year-over-year decline, primarily due to known contract attrition in the NEMT segment. The company secured two new Medicaid managed care contracts worth approximately $52 million annually, with projected in-year contributions of around $38 million. Despite a net loss of $50.4 million, up from $22.3 million the previous year, ModivCare focused on cost-saving measures, including a $25 million reduction in G&A expenses and improvements in capital efficiency. The self-service call-to-trip ratio for NEMT increased to 36.1%, and digital trip volumes surpassed 1 million transactions. Adjusted EBITDA was $32.6 million, reflecting a sequential decline but aligning with expectations. ModivCare emphasized its commitment to five strategic objectives, including digitizing its care access platform and increasing capital efficiency, while not providing formal guidance for 2025 but focusing on executing measurable initiatives.ModivCare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ModivCare is facing significant financial challenges with negative profitability margins, high leverage, and liquidity issues. The company's inability to generate positive cash flow and its reliance on debt financing raise concerns about its financial health and sustainability.Income Statement
ModivCare's income statement shows a challenging financial situation with declining revenue and consistent net losses. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating operational inefficiencies. Although the historical revenue growth has been substantial, recent trends show stagnation, and profitability has not been maintained.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning as it suggests heavy reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is negative, which signals financial distress and potential solvency issues.42
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating liquidity challenges. The free cash flow growth rate remains negative, and the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio underscores inefficiencies in transforming earnings into cash. These factors point towards potential difficulties in maintaining adequate cash reserves.38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.75B | 2.79B | 2.75B | 2.50B | 2.00B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 417.15M | 420.37M | 446.95M | 472.32M | 412.59M | 289.88M |
| EBITDA | 250.00K | 4.88M | -23.33M | 169.14M | 146.77M | 148.22M |
| Net Income | -229.35M | -201.28M | -204.46M | -31.81M | -6.58M | 88.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.68B | 1.65B | 1.77B | 1.94B | 2.03B | 1.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 115.96M | 112.58M | 2.22M | 14.45M | 133.14M | 183.28M |
| Total Debt | 1.40B | 1.30B | 1.14B | 1.02B | 1.02B | 517.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.76B | 1.69B | 1.61B | 1.59B | 1.65B | 1.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | -87.63M | -38.47M | 156.19M | 354.56M | 373.27M | 411.61M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -121.14M | -34.04M | -125.26M | -43.45M | 165.52M | 336.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -97.30M | -6.41M | -82.97M | -10.44M | 186.84M | 348.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.84M | -27.63M | -42.29M | -111.81M | -685.63M | -635.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 231.05M | 144.37M | 113.07M | 3.81M | 448.85M | 408.26M |
ModivCare Technical Analysis
Negative
0.01
Price Trends
0.19
Negative
1.49
Negative
2.07
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
35.57
Neutral
3.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODVQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.08, below the 50-day MA of 0.19, and below the 200-day MA of 2.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MODVQ.
ModivCare Risk Analysis
ModivCare disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ModivCare reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ModivCare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $927.11M | 35.43 | 10.87% | ― | 29.89% | 10.33% | |
74 Outperform | $2.22B | 25.73 | 8.58% | ― | 18.77% | 6.88% | |
72 Outperform | $2.11B | 21.03 | 9.94% | 1.97% | 23.74% | -18.99% | |
72 Outperform | $1.32B | 34.75 | 8.07% | ― | 6.26% | -19.33% | |
54 Neutral | $1.95B | 25.94 | ― | ― | 15.48% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
41 Neutral | $143.54K | ― | ― | ― | -0.70% | -2.38% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.