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ModivCare (MODVQ)
OTHER OTC:MODVQ
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ModivCare
(OTC:MODVQ)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$0.02
▲(0.00% Upside)
ModivCare's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by high leverage and negative cash flows. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation is unattractive due to negative earnings. The lack of earnings call data and corporate events further limits positive influences on the score.
Positive Factors
Market Position
ModivCare's leadership in technology-enabled healthcare services positions it well to leverage growing demand for integrated care solutions.
Revenue Streams
Stable revenue from government contracts provides a reliable income stream, supporting long-term financial stability despite current challenges.
Partnerships
Strategic partnerships enhance ModivCare's service delivery capabilities, potentially driving future growth and market expansion.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage limits financial flexibility and increases risk, potentially impacting ModivCare's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Cash Flows
Persistent negative cash flows hinder ModivCare's ability to maintain adequate reserves, posing risks to operational sustainability.
Declining Revenue
Declining revenue trends suggest challenges in maintaining market share and competitiveness, affecting long-term profitability.
ModivCare (MODVQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$287.08K
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)69.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth-0.70%
EPS Growth-2.38%
CountryUS
Employees23,675
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding14,353,820
10 Day Avg. Volume34,402
30 Day Avg. Volume69,417
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)-4.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio-4.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.54K
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.21K
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionModivCare, Inc. is a leading provider of technology-enabled healthcare services that focuses on improving access to care for vulnerable populations. The company operates primarily in three segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), Personal Care, and Remote Patient Monitoring. ModivCare's core services include arranging transportation for Medicaid and Medicare recipients to medical appointments, providing personal care services to individuals in need, and offering innovative remote patient monitoring solutions to enhance patient engagement and health outcomes.
How the Company Makes MoneyModivCare generates revenue primarily through contracts with state Medicaid programs and other governmental entities, which pay for the transportation services provided to eligible beneficiaries. The company also earns income from personal care services, which are billed on a per-hour or per-visit basis, depending on the service agreement. Additionally, revenue is generated from remote patient monitoring services, where clients pay for technology solutions and ongoing patient engagement support. Significant partnerships with healthcare providers, managed care organizations, and government agencies further bolster ModivCare's revenue streams, enhancing their ability to deliver comprehensive, integrated healthcare services.
ModivCare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strategic contract wins, digital transformation progress, and cost reduction initiatives being positive aspects. However, revenue decline, increased net loss, and negative free cash flow are significant challenges. While there are promising strategic initiatives underway, financial performance in the short term remains challenging.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Contract Wins
Secured two new Medicaid managed care contracts in the Southwest and Pacific regions with a combined annual contract value of approximately $52 million. Additionally, submitted four state contract renewals totaling over $246 million in annual contract value.
Digital Transformation Progress
Self-service call-to-trip ratio increased to 36.1% from 31% a year ago, with digital reservations supported by API integration and channel enhancements. Automated intake and trip adjudication reduced unit costs by 1.2% year-over-year.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Launched a company-wide G&A reduction initiative targeting approximately $25 million in annualized savings. Structural realignment and cost-saving measures implemented in late 2024 and early 2025 are expected to drive additional savings.
Improved Operational Efficiency
Implemented a full operating restructure in the NEMT segment, integrating trip operations under unified regional leadership, enhancing decision speed and financial accountability.
Monitoring Segment Growth
Increased Medicaid LTSS referrals by 45% year-over-year in Indiana and launched additional programs in new states. Operating under three active condition-based monitoring contracts.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue for the quarter was $650.7 million, down 5% year-over-year and 2% sequentially. Decline attributed to known NEMT contract attrition, lower billed hours in PCS, and membership churn in monitoring.
Increased Net Loss
Net loss for the quarter was $50.4 million, up from $22.3 million a year ago, primarily due to higher interest expenses, which rose to $38.8 million.
Contract Losses
Experienced the loss of a regional contract totaling $15 million in annual revenue due to a national plan's decision to consolidate vendors.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was negative at $86.2 million, largely due to working capital build from timing of accounts payable, contract transitions, and higher interest expense.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter 2025 financial results conference call, ModivCare Inc. outlined several key metrics and strategic objectives guiding its operations. Revenue for the quarter was reported at $650.7 million, representing a 5% year-over-year decline, primarily due to known contract attrition in the NEMT segment. The company secured two new Medicaid managed care contracts worth approximately $52 million annually, with projected in-year contributions of around $38 million. Despite a net loss of $50.4 million, up from $22.3 million the previous year, ModivCare focused on cost-saving measures, including a $25 million reduction in G&A expenses and improvements in capital efficiency. The self-service call-to-trip ratio for NEMT increased to 36.1%, and digital trip volumes surpassed 1 million transactions. Adjusted EBITDA was $32.6 million, reflecting a sequential decline but aligning with expectations. ModivCare emphasized its commitment to five strategic objectives, including digitizing its care access platform and increasing capital efficiency, while not providing formal guidance for 2025 but focusing on executing measurable initiatives.ModivCare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ModivCare is experiencing significant financial challenges, with declining revenue, consistent net losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. These factors indicate financial instability and potential solvency issues.Income Statement
ModivCare's income statement shows a challenging financial situation with declining revenue and consistent net losses. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating operational inefficiencies. Although the historical revenue growth has been substantial, recent trends show stagnation, and profitability has not been maintained.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning as it suggests heavy reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is negative, which signals financial distress and potential solvency issues.42
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating liquidity challenges. The free cash flow growth rate remains negative, and the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio underscores inefficiencies in transforming earnings into cash. These factors point towards potential difficulties in maintaining adequate cash reserves.38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.75B | 2.79B | 2.75B | 2.50B | 2.00B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 417.15M | 420.37M | 446.95M | 472.32M | 412.59M | 289.88M |
| EBITDA | 250.00K | 4.88M | -23.33M | 169.14M | 146.77M | 148.22M |
| Net Income | -229.35M | -201.28M | -204.46M | -31.81M | -6.58M | 88.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.68B | 1.65B | 1.77B | 1.94B | 2.03B | 1.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 115.96M | 112.58M | 2.22M | 14.45M | 133.14M | 183.28M |
| Total Debt | 1.40B | 1.30B | 1.14B | 1.02B | 1.02B | 517.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.76B | 1.69B | 1.61B | 1.59B | 1.65B | 1.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | -87.63M | -38.47M | 156.19M | 354.56M | 373.27M | 411.61M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -121.14M | -34.04M | -125.26M | -43.45M | 165.52M | 336.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -97.30M | -6.41M | -82.97M | -10.44M | 186.84M | 348.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.84M | -27.63M | -42.29M | -111.81M | -685.63M | -635.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 231.05M | 144.37M | 113.07M | 3.81M | 448.85M | 408.26M |
ModivCare Technical Analysis
Negative
0.02
Price Trends
0.10
Negative
0.99
Negative
1.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
42.34
Neutral
56.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODVQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.01, below the 50-day MA of 0.10, and below the 200-day MA of 1.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MODVQ.
ModivCare Risk Analysis
ModivCare disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ModivCare reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ModivCare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.09B | 23.97 | 8.58% | ― | 18.77% | 6.88% | |
74 Outperform | $2.20B | 21.85 | 9.94% | 1.77% | 23.74% | -18.99% | |
73 Outperform | $1.01B | 38.93 | 10.87% | ― | 29.89% | 10.33% | |
72 Outperform | $1.38B | 36.42 | 8.07% | ― | 6.26% | -19.33% | |
58 Neutral | $1.90B | 24.81 | ― | ― | 15.48% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | $287.08K | >-0.01 | ― | ― | -0.70% | -2.38% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.