Montauk Renewables (MNTK)
NASDAQ:MNTK
Want to see MNTK full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Montauk Renewables
(NASDAQ:MNTK)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-21.88% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
Overall score reflects weakening financial performance (compressed margins and deeply negative free cash flow) as the primary drag, reinforced by bearish technicals. Earnings call commentary adds a modest offset via 2026 growth guidance and project commissioning progress, but higher-cost financing and RIN-price pressure limit confidence. Valuation remains a headwind due to the very high P/E and no indicated dividend support.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Substantially lower leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.05 in 2025) and steady equity growth give Montauk the financial flexibility to fund development, absorb temporary cash shortfalls, and access capital for projects without immediate distress. This strengthens long-term resilience versus highly leveraged peers.
Negative Factors
Profitability erosion
Sharp margin compression from mid-teens to ~1% and declining EBITDA reflect weaker pricing and rising site costs. Persistently lower profitability undermines return on invested capital, slows equity value creation, and makes it harder to self-fund development without continually tapping external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Substantially lower leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.05 in 2025) and steady equity growth give Montauk the financial flexibility to fund development, absorb temporary cash shortfalls, and access capital for projects without immediate distress. This strengthens long-term resilience versus highly leveraged peers.
Read all positive factors
Montauk Renewables (MNTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$172.23M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)163.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)136.6
Beta (1Y)1.73
Revenue Growth-17.54%
EPS Growth-139.94%
CountryUS
Employees166
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding142,341,140
10 Day Avg. Volume154,520
30 Day Avg. Volume163,104
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.66
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio-2.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.00Price Target Upside134.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$204.70M
Montauk Renewables Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Montauk Renewables, Inc., a renewable energy company, engages in recovery and processing of biogas from landfills and other non-fossil fuel sources. It operates in two segments, Renewable Natural Gas and Renewable Electricity Generation. The compa...
How the Company Makes Money
Montauk Renewables makes money primarily by producing and selling RNG derived from landfill gas. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) physical RNG sales—revenue from selling pipeline-quality RNG (and/or environmental “green gas” attributes b...
Montauk Renewables Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mix of operational progress and strategic actions (facility commissioning, Turkey, NC project commissioning, GreenWave JV contribution, and a new $200M credit facility) alongside material near-term financial headwinds. Key negatives include a sharp decline in realized RIN prices (~29%), lower profitability (Adjusted EBITDA down 16.5%, net income down 84.5%), increased O&M and development-related expenses, impairment charges, and higher leverage with a 10.25% fixed rate. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (higher expected RNG volumes and revenues) and financing to support growth, but near-term earnings and margin pressures dominate the financial picture.Positive Updates
Operational Production Improvements at Specific Sites
Pico project inlet feedstock averaged ~458,000 gallons/day, 17% above contractual minimum; Pico's redesigned facility produced ~31.8% more RNG year-over-year; Apex commissioning contributed to ~7.8% more RNG production at that site in 2025 vs prior year; Rumpke produced 218,000 MMBtu more in 2025.
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in RIN Prices
Average realized RIN price fell ~29% to $2.33 in 2025 from $3.28 in 2024; the D3 RIN index was ~24.9% lower year-over-year, materially pressuring revenue and profitability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Production Improvements at Specific Sites
Pico project inlet feedstock averaged ~458,000 gallons/day, 17% above contractual minimum; Pico's redesigned facility produced ~31.8% more RNG year-over-year; Apex commissioning contributed to ~7.8% more RNG production at that site in 2025 vs prior year; Rumpke produced 218,000 MMBtu more in 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 outlook provided ranges and key financing/capital metrics: RNG production is forecast at 5.8–6.1 million MMBtu with corresponding RNG revenues of $175–$190 million; renewable electricity production is expected at 195,000–207,000 MWh with revenues of $35–$41 million (including Turkey, NC); nondevelopment 2026 capex is guided to $20–$25 million while development capex is estimated at $100–$150 million; the Turkey, NC first‑phase investment is ~ $200 million (processing 400k–450k hog spaces ≈ 35,000 tons/year) with commercial operations beginning April 2026; financing includes a new up‑to $200 million senior facility ($155 million drawn as of 3/11/2026) at a 10.25% fixed rate, 24‑month availability, 1.25% quarterly principal thereafter, and a 4:1 net leverage covenant; management reiterated it does not provide guidance on D3 RIN market prices (and did not guide EBITDA).Montauk Renewables Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 176.38M | 175.74M | 174.90M | 205.56M | 148.13M |
| Gross Profit | 68.76M | 77.57M | 80.28M | 104.13M | 69.97M |
| EBITDA | 34.54M | 40.97M | 45.12M | 65.73M | 25.43M |
| Net Income | 1.75M | 9.73M | 14.95M | 35.19M | -4.53M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 435.46M | 349.01M | 350.24M | 332.32M | 286.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.75M | 45.62M | 73.81M | 105.18M | 53.27M |
| Total Debt | 137.94M | 62.91M | 68.09M | 76.22M | 79.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 172.31M | 91.60M | 100.00M | 105.22M | 104.19M |
| Stockholders Equity | 263.15M | 257.42M | 250.24M | 227.09M | 182.29M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -86.21M | -18.53M | -22.04M | 58.79M | 32.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.33M | 43.80M | 41.05M | 81.07M | 42.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -120.49M | -62.19M | -63.09M | -20.79M | -19.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 68.34M | -9.84M | -9.33M | -8.28M | 8.65M |
Montauk Renewables Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.28
Price Trends
1.42
Negative
1.54
Negative
1.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
52.27
Neutral
76.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNTK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.18, below the 50-day MA of 1.42, and below the 200-day MA of 1.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MNTK.
Montauk Renewables Risk Analysis
Montauk Renewables disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Montauk Renewables reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
The profitability of our renewable fuel projects may be limited by our ability to dispense fuel to separate RINs and the volatility of the price of RINs. Q4, 2025
Montauk Renewables Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $10.02B | 3.67 | 8.00% | 5.43% | 1.96% | -35.00% | |
69 Neutral | $8.89B | 6.53 | 17.23% | 12.98% | -0.38% | -53.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $17.10B | 35.60 | 9.74% | 4.92% | 8.14% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $10.30B | 10.76 | 20.40% | 5.06% | -1.55% | 12.83% | |
50 Neutral | $172.23M | 136.64 | -3.57% | ― | -17.54% | -139.94% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MNTK
Montauk Renewables
1.29
-0.71
-35.50%
BIP
Brookfield Infrastructure
36.56
10.02
37.78%
CIG
Companhia Energetica Minas Gerais
2.66
1.13
73.52%
AES
AES
14.47
4.84
50.28%
ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
13.33
7.03
111.65%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.