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Montauk Renewables
(NASDAQ:MNTK)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(16.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and deeply negative free cash flow, plus very unfavorable valuation (extremely high P/E). These are partially offset by a strong balance sheet, constructive price momentum, and a mixed-but-stable earnings update with reaffirmed guidance and project progress amid notable execution and cost risks.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet, low leverage
Very low debt relative to equity and a sizable asset base give Montauk structural financing flexibility to fund growth and weather operational setbacks. Over the next 2–6 months this reduces default and refinancing risk and supports capital allocation for project ramp and optional draws under credit facilities.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative free cash flow
Sustained negative free cash flow forces reliance on external financing and heightens execution risk for capital projects. Over 2–6 months this increases vulnerability to covenant tests, raises funding costs, and may constrain the company’s ability to self-fund Montauk Ag ramp or address unforeseen operational shortfalls.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet, low leverage
Very low debt relative to equity and a sizable asset base give Montauk structural financing flexibility to fund growth and weather operational setbacks. Over the next 2–6 months this reduces default and refinancing risk and supports capital allocation for project ramp and optional draws under credit facilities.
Read all positive factors
Montauk Renewables (MNTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$240.56M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)163.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)109.7
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth0.36%
EPS Growth-70.50%
CountryUS
Employees166
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding142,341,140
10 Day Avg. Volume154,520
30 Day Avg. Volume163,104
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.67
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio-2.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.20Price Target Upside70.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$210.39M
Montauk Renewables Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Montauk Renewables, Inc. is a renewable energy enterprise specializing in the extraction and refinement of biogas sourced from landfills and other non-fossil fuel origins. Its operations are divided into two primary segments: Renewable Natural Gas...
How the Company Makes Money
Montauk Renewables makes money primarily by producing and selling renewable natural gas (RNG) and by monetizing the environmental attributes associated with that production. (1) RNG sales: The company captures landfill gas, upgrades it to pipeline...
Montauk Renewables Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but generally stable picture: operationally, Montauk achieved a major milestone by commissioning the Montauk Ag renewables project and saw top-line growth (revenues +9%) and strong improvements in adjusted EBITDA (+22.8%) and EBITDA (+40.3%). The GreenWave JV contributed revenue and income, and full-year guidance was reaffirmed. However, the business faces near-term challenges including the termination of a CO2 offtake contract, expiration of fixed-price RNG contracts (RNG commodity revenue down ~49.3%), higher renewable O&M (up 33.8%), certain facility-level production declines, one-month commissioning delay, and new costs tied to RIN distribution and pathway dispensing. These offset many positives and leave the quarter as a balance of encouraging financial/operational progress and several execution and timing risks.Positive Updates
Commissioning of Montauk Ag Renewables Project
Montauk Ag renewables project in Turkey, North Carolina was commissioned and is producing gas; renewable electricity from syngas expected to commence in May 2026. Targeted first phase capacity: 47,000 (reported) and 120,000 RECs annually at ~50% reactor capacity. Capital investment for first phase reaffirmed at $200 million; ramp-up expected through 2026 tied to additional feedstock collection.
Negative Updates
Termination of CO2 Offtake Agreement
Terminated contract with European Energy North America (EENA) for delivery of biogenic CO2 due to EENA's failure to provide contractual assurances; Montauk is exploring alternative offtake arrangements. Timing of associated capital expenditures will depend on replacement agreements; expected additional capex of $30M–$40M remains contingent.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Commissioning of Montauk Ag Renewables Project
Montauk Ag renewables project in Turkey, North Carolina was commissioned and is producing gas; renewable electricity from syngas expected to commence in May 2026. Targeted first phase capacity: 47,000 (reported) and 120,000 RECs annually at ~50% reactor capacity. Capital investment for first phase reaffirmed at $200 million; ramp-up expected through 2026 tied to additional feedstock collection.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance: RNG production of about 5.8–6.0 million MMBtu with corresponding RNG (environmental attribute) revenues of $175–$190 million, and renewable electricity generation of 195,000–207,000 MWh with revenues of $33–$37 million; it expects Montauk Ag’s first phase (targeting 47,000 megawatts and 120,000 RECs annually at ~50% reactor capacity) to begin revenue generation in May 2026 and to cost about $200 million for that phase, with additional capital investment timing and $30–$40 million contemplated as replacement offtake arrangements are finalized; the company also expects production to ramp through 2026 tied to feedstock collection, has committed to sell roughly 60% of expected Q2 2026 RIN volumes, and noted it does not provide guidance on D3 RIN market prices.Montauk Renewables Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 180.21M | 176.38M | 175.74M | 174.90M | 205.56M | 148.13M |
| Gross Profit | 63.55M | 68.76M | 77.57M | 80.28M | 104.13M | 69.97M |
| EBITDA | 38.70M | 34.54M | 40.97M | 45.12M | 65.73M | 25.43M |
| Net Income | 2.22M | 1.75M | 9.73M | 14.95M | 35.19M | -4.53M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 467.78M | 435.46M | 349.01M | 350.24M | 332.32M | 286.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.95M | 23.75M | 45.62M | 73.81M | 105.18M | 53.27M |
| Total Debt | 157.84M | 137.94M | 62.91M | 68.09M | 76.22M | 79.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 204.01M | 172.31M | 91.60M | 100.00M | 105.22M | 104.19M |
| Stockholders Equity | 263.77M | 263.15M | 257.42M | 250.24M | 227.09M | 182.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -98.74M | -86.21M | -18.53M | -22.04M | 58.79M | 32.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 37.04M | 30.33M | 43.80M | 41.05M | 81.07M | 42.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -139.69M | -120.49M | -62.19M | -63.09M | -20.79M | -19.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 90.83M | 68.34M | -9.84M | -9.33M | -8.28M | 8.65M |
Montauk Renewables Technical Analysis
Positive
1.29
Price Trends
1.56
Positive
1.48
Positive
1.66
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
58.23
Neutral
79.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNTK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.61, below the 50-day MA of 1.56, and below the 200-day MA of 1.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNTK.
Montauk Renewables Risk Analysis
Montauk Renewables disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Montauk Renewables reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Montauk Renewables Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $8.65B | 4.09 | 11.03% | 5.43% | 21.84% | -4.20% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $6.96B | 9.21 | 16.88% | 12.98% | 10.16% | -29.63% | |
58 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.81 | 28.87% | 5.06% | 2.76% | 5.46% | |
55 Neutral | $17.10B | 48.89 | 7.74% | 4.92% | 13.02% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $240.56M | 109.74 | 0.85% | ― | 0.36% | -70.50% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MNTK
Montauk Renewables
1.69
-0.59
-25.88%
BIP
Brookfield Infrastructure
37.01
5.40
17.10%
CIG
Companhia Energetica Minas Gerais
2.09
0.28
15.53%
AES
AES
14.58
3.62
33.08%
ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
11.61
3.82
49.02%
Montauk Renewables Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Montauk Renewables Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor at Meeting
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Montauk Renewables, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which shareholders elected two board nominees, Jennifer Cunningham and Sean McClain, to serve as directors until the 2029 annual meeting. The meeting also s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.