Want to see MNTK full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Montauk Renewables
(NASDAQ:MNTK)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-19.79% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held down primarily by weak cash conversion (deeply negative free cash flow) alongside margin deterioration and higher leverage, despite continued profitability. Technicals are broadly neutral-to-slightly constructive, and the earnings call supported the outlook with reaffirmed guidance and strong Q2 improvement, but valuation is a clear headwind given the very high P/E and ongoing capital intensity/liquidity sensitivity.
Positive Factors
RNG plus environmental credits revenue mix
Montauk’s core model monetizes both physical RNG sales and environmental attributes, giving multiple durable revenue channels. This dual monetization supports revenue resilience over the medium term as production scales and provides flexibility to capture value from fuel and attribute markets.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative free cash flow
Sustained negative free cash flow signals heavy capital intensity and poor cash conversion that will require external financing or asset sales to fund growth. Over several years this weakens financial flexibility and raises execution risk for multi-year capex programs like Phase 1.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
RNG plus environmental credits revenue mix
Montauk’s core model monetizes both physical RNG sales and environmental attributes, giving multiple durable revenue channels. This dual monetization supports revenue resilience over the medium term as production scales and provides flexibility to capture value from fuel and attribute markets.
Read all positive factors
Montauk Renewables (MNTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$243.40M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)163.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)111.0
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth0.36%
EPS Growth-70.50%
CountryUS
Employees189
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding142,341,140
10 Day Avg. Volume154,520
30 Day Avg. Volume163,104
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.67
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio-2.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.50Price Target Upside33.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$212.56M
Montauk Renewables Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Montauk Renewables, Inc. is a renewable energy enterprise specializing in the extraction and refinement of biogas sourced from landfills and other non-fossil fuel origins. Its operations are divided into two primary segments: Renewable Natural Gas...
How the Company Makes Money
Montauk Renewables primarily makes money by producing and selling renewable natural gas (RNG) derived from landfill gas. Revenue is generated through (1) sales of RNG (or gas-related products) under supply arrangements, where the company monetizes...
Montauk Renewables Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a materially improved operating performance in Q2 2026 with notable revenue growth (+19.7%), substantial increases in EBITDA (+144.5% adjusted) and a swing to positive net income, supported by RIN-related revenues and GreenWave JV contributions. Operationally, production volumes were modestly higher and the company has made clear progress on the Turkey, NC development and farm collection agreements. However, significant challenges persist: steep declines in contracted RNG commodity sales and RINs generated/unseparated due to regulatory transitions, lower natural gas commodity pricing (-15.7%), project-level non-capital costs and ongoing capital intensity (first-phase capex of $200M and $61.3M YTD capex). Liquidity and leverage (cash ~$15.8M; $155M debt) and dependence on environmental-attribute markets remain key risks. Overall, the financial and operational improvements in the quarter outweigh the headwinds, but the company remains exposed to policy and commodity risk.Positive Updates
Total Revenue Growth
Total revenues of $54.0 million in Q2 2026, an increase of $8.9 million or 19.7% versus $45.1 million in Q2 2025, driven primarily by environmental attribute (RIN) revenues (~$8.4 million) including distributions from GreenWave.
Negative Updates
Large Decline in Fixed-Price RNG Sales and Commodity Revenues
RNG volumes sold under fixed lower-price contracts decreased approximately 80% YoY due to contract expirations; RNG commodity revenue decreased approximately 63.7% YoY, reflecting reduced contracted commodity volumes and lower average natural gas pricing.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Total Revenue Growth
Total revenues of $54.0 million in Q2 2026, an increase of $8.9 million or 19.7% versus $45.1 million in Q2 2025, driven primarily by environmental attribute (RIN) revenues (~$8.4 million) including distributions from GreenWave.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Montauk reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for RNG production of 5.8–6.0 million MMBtu with RNG revenues of $175–$190 million, and renewable electricity output of 185,000–195,000 MWh with electricity revenues of $23–$26 million (driven by Montauk Ag Renewables in Turkey, NC); the company also maintained a Phase 1 capital investment expectation of $200 million and expects programming modifications to be completed by mid‑August to enable consistent power/REC generation and a production ramp through 2026. Supporting metrics from the call include long‑term agreements with >50 farms covering >350,000 of the 400,000–450,000 targeted hog spaces (currently collecting from >250,000), Q2 RNG production of 1.5 million MMBtu, Q2 renewable electricity of ~44,000 MWh, 14.3 million RINs self‑marketed in Q2 (sold ~1.9 million RINs for ~$4.8M) and receipt of ~1.5 million RINs from GreenWave, a Q3 RIN transfer commitment at an average $2.66 (July D3 index $2.64), adjusted EBITDA Q2 $12.3M, EBITDA $11.7M, net income $0.2M, H1 capex $61.3M (including $49.8M for Montauk Ag Renewables), cash net of restricted $15.8M and $155M outstanding under the HASI senior credit facility.Montauk Renewables Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 189.10M | 176.38M | 175.74M | 174.90M | 205.56M | 148.13M |
| Gross Profit | 65.60M | 68.76M | 77.57M | 80.28M | 104.13M | 69.97M |
| EBITDA | 38.07M | 32.30M | 40.97M | 45.12M | 65.73M | 25.43M |
| Net Income | 7.93M | 1.75M | 9.73M | 14.95M | 35.19M | -4.53M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 470.71M | 435.46M | 349.01M | 350.24M | 332.32M | 286.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.76M | 23.75M | 45.62M | 73.81M | 105.18M | 53.27M |
| Total Debt | 157.13M | 137.94M | 62.91M | 68.09M | 76.22M | 79.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 206.18M | 172.31M | 91.60M | 100.00M | 105.22M | 104.19M |
| Stockholders Equity | 264.53M | 263.15M | 257.42M | 250.24M | 227.09M | 182.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -98.39M | -86.21M | -18.53M | -22.04M | 58.79M | 32.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 59.28M | 30.33M | 43.80M | 41.05M | 81.07M | 42.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -159.40M | -120.49M | -62.19M | -63.09M | -20.79M | -19.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 93.58M | 68.34M | -9.84M | -9.33M | -8.28M | 8.65M |
Montauk Renewables Technical Analysis
Positive
1.87
Price Trends
1.67
Positive
1.50
Positive
1.61
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
49.95
Neutral
20.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNTK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.72, above the 50-day MA of 1.67, and above the 200-day MA of 1.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNTK.
Montauk Renewables Risk Analysis
Montauk Renewables disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Montauk Renewables reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Montauk Renewables Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $8.68B | 4.03 | 11.03% | 4.55% | 21.84% | -4.20% | |
64 Neutral | $19.23B | 59.66 | 7.74% | 4.33% | 16.38% | 3611.34% | |
63 Neutral | $10.47B | 7.81 | 28.87% | 4.74% | 2.76% | 5.46% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $7.33B | 9.61 | 16.88% | 7.37% | 10.16% | -29.63% | |
51 Neutral | $243.40M | 111.04 | 0.85% | ― | 0.36% | -70.50% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MNTK
Montauk Renewables
1.70
-0.25
-12.82%
BIP
Brookfield Infrastructure
38.94
10.11
35.05%
CIG
Companhia Energetica Minas Gerais
2.14
0.41
23.84%
AES
AES
14.70
2.46
20.10%
ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
11.69
3.82
48.60%
Montauk Renewables Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Montauk Renewables Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor at Meeting
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Montauk Renewables, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which shareholders elected two board nominees, Jennifer Cunningham and Sean McClain, to serve as directors until the 2029 annual meeting. The meeting also s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.