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Montauk Renewables (MNTK)
NASDAQ:MNTK
US Market

Montauk Renewables (MNTK) AI Stock Analysis

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Montauk Renewables

(NASDAQ:MNTK)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(11.61%Upside)
Montauk Renewables' stock score reflects a challenging financial performance with declining profitability and cash generation issues. Despite some positive technical indicators and revenue growth, the high valuation and regulatory uncertainties pose significant risks. The company's need to improve profitability and navigate industry challenges are key factors affecting its score.

Montauk Renewables (MNTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Montauk Renewables Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMontauk Renewables, Inc., a renewable energy company, engages in recovery and processing of biogas from landfills and other non-fossil fuel sources. It operates in two segments, Renewable Natural Gas and Renewable Electricity Generation. The company develops, owns, and operates renewable natural gas (RNG) projects that capture methane and prevents it from being released into the atmosphere by converting it into either RNG or electrical power for the electrical grid. Its customers for RNG and renewable identification numbers (RIN) include long-term owner-operators of landfills and livestock farms, local utilities, and refiners in the natural gas and refining sectors. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyMontauk Renewables generates revenue through the production and sale of renewable natural gas (RNG) and renewable electricity, which are derived from biogas collected from landfills and other agricultural sources. The company benefits from various environmental credits and incentives provided by governmental and regulatory bodies aimed at promoting clean energy. Montauk also engages in long-term partnerships and contracts with utility companies and other energy consumers to ensure a stable and consistent revenue stream. A significant portion of its earnings is derived from state and federal programs such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in the U.S., which mandates the inclusion of renewable fuels in transportation fuel.

Montauk Renewables Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -3.86%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with revenue and RIN sales growth but faced significant challenges with decreased RIN pricing, operating income, and recorded a net loss. Regulatory uncertainties and impairments also posed challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Increase
Total revenues in the first quarter of 2025 were $42.6 million, an increase of $3.8 million, or 9.8%, compared to $38.8 million in the first quarter of 2024.
RIN Sales Increase
Montauk self-marketed 9.9 million RINs, a 25.3% increase compared to 7.9 million RINs self-marketed during the first quarter of 2024.
Renewable Natural Gas Segment Revenue Growth
Revenues from the Renewable Natural Gas segment during the first quarter of 2025 were $38.5 million, an increase of $4.5 million or 13.1% compared to $34.0 million during the first quarter of 2024.
Cost Reduction in General and Administrative Expenses
Total general and administrative expenses were $8.8 million for the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of $0.7 million, or 7.1%, compared to $9.4 million in the first quarter of 2024.
North Carolina Swine Project Development
Montauk's development efforts in North Carolina continue in full force with an expectation to commence significant production and revenue generation activities in 2026.
Negative Updates
Decrease in RIN Pricing
Average pricing realized in RIN sales during the first quarter of 2025 was $2.46 compared to $3.25 during the first quarter of 2024, a decrease of 24.3%.
Operating Income Decline
Operating income for the first quarter of 2025 was $0.4 million, a decrease of $2.0 million compared to operating income of $2.4 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Net Loss Recorded
Net loss for the first quarter of 2025 was $0.5 million, a decrease of $2.3 million as compared to net income of $1.9 million for the first quarter of 2024.
Impairment Charges
Reported impairment of $2.0 million in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of $1.5 million compared to $0.5 million in the first quarter of 2024, primarily related to RNG equipment design at the Blue Granite RNG project.
Decrease in Renewable Electricity Generation
Produced approximately 46,000 megawatt hours in renewable electricity during the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of approximately 8,000 megawatt hours, or 14.8%, compared to 54,000 megawatt hours during the first quarter of 2024.
Company Guidance
During the Montauk Renewables earnings call, significant guidance was provided concerning their 2025 outlook and operational developments. The company reaffirmed their full-year 2025 outlook, expecting RNG production volumes to range between 5.8 million MMBtu and 6 million MMBtu, generating revenues between $150 million and $170 million. Meanwhile, renewable electricity production is anticipated to range from 178,000 to 186,000 megawatt hours, with revenues between $17 million and $18 million. The call highlighted the impact of regulatory uncertainties, such as the EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard compliance delay, on the renewable natural gas industry. Montauk emphasized its financial stability, citing a $200 million credit facility and a cash position of $40.1 million as of March 31, 2025. They also detailed various projects, including the North Carolina swine waste-to-energy development, which is expected to commence production and revenue generation activities in 2026. Additionally, Montauk is advancing multiple biogenic CO2 projects, enhancing their diversified portfolio in renewable energy solutions.

Montauk Renewables Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Montauk Renewables exhibits strengths in operational efficiency and financial stability, with improved EBIT and EBITDA margins and a low Debt-to-Equity ratio. However, it faces challenges with revenue volatility, declining net profit margins, and negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Montauk Renewables shows a volatile revenue trend with a sharp decline in 2024, offsetting previous growth. Gross profit margins are unavailable, but EBIT and EBITDA margins improved in 2024, indicating operational efficiency. The net profit margin is positive but has decreased from prior years, suggesting some profitability challenges.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet is strong with a low Debt-to-Equity ratio, indicating low leverage and financial stability. ROE is positive but has fluctuated over the years, reflecting varying profitability. The equity ratio shows a high level of equity financing, which is healthy for long-term sustainability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow is robust, consistently covering net income. However, free cash flow is negative in the latest period due to high capital expenditures, which could impact liquidity. The company shows a strong capacity to generate operating cash, but free cash flow trends need monitoring.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue175.74M174.90M205.56M148.13M100.38M
Gross Profit77.57M80.28M104.13M69.97M38.64M
EBITDA40.97M45.12M65.73M25.43M25.06M
Net Income9.73M14.95M35.19M-4.53M4.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets349.01M350.24M332.32M286.48M253.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments45.62M73.81M105.18M53.27M20.99M
Total Debt62.91M68.09M76.22M79.53M66.36M
Total Liabilities91.60M100.00M105.22M104.19M93.73M
Stockholders Equity257.42M250.24M227.09M182.29M159.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-18.53M-22.04M58.79M32.89M11.04M
Operating Cash Flow43.80M41.05M81.07M42.88M28.68M
Investing Cash Flow-62.19M-63.09M-20.79M-19.47M-15.99M
Financing Cash Flow-9.84M-9.33M-8.28M8.65M-1.50M

Montauk Renewables Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.24
Price Trends
50DMA
2.13
Positive
100DMA
2.58
Negative
200DMA
3.63
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.05
Negative
RSI
52.95
Neutral
STOCH
72.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNTK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.14, above the 50-day MA of 2.13, and below the 200-day MA of 3.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNTK.

Montauk Renewables Risk Analysis

Montauk Renewables disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Montauk Renewables reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Montauk Renewables Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
CICIG
80
Outperform
$6.30B4.3226.38%72.95%-4.14%13.02%
ELELP
78
Outperform
$6.46B12.659.22%3.48%-7.02%17.33%
ALALE
68
Neutral
$3.70B20.046.49%4.57%-11.15%-23.41%
BKBKH
67
Neutral
$4.06B14.288.02%4.83%3.28%-3.49%
67
Neutral
$16.42B16.954.63%3.59%4.77%6.10%
61
Neutral
$321.07M43.082.90%-7.70%-64.05%
AEAES
53
Neutral
$7.63B5.8529.79%6.57%-3.22%141.11%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MNTK
Montauk Renewables
2.24
-3.08
-57.89%
ALE
Allete
63.88
4.44
7.47%
BKH
Black Hills
55.94
4.21
8.14%
CIG
Companhia Energetica Minas Gerais
1.91
0.37
24.03%
ELP
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Pfd
8.91
2.61
41.43%
AES
AES
10.72
-6.10
-36.27%

Montauk Renewables Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Montauk Renewables Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 27, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Montauk Renewables, Inc. conducted its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where two director nominees, Theventheran G. Govender and Yunis Shaik, were elected to the Board for terms expiring in 2028. Additionally, the stockholders ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, indicating continued confidence in the company’s financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNTK) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Montauk Renewables stock, see the MNTK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025