Montauk Renewables (MNTK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $247.53M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 163.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: -17.54%
• EPS Growth: -139.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 166
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 142,256,620
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 154,520
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 163,104
• PEG Ratio: -1.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.22
• P/FCF Ratio: -30.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.90
• 1Y Price Target: $4.00
• Price Target Upside: 86.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-6.54% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weakening financial performance (declining revenue, pressured margins, and deteriorating free cash flow). Technicals are only modestly supportive (near-term improvement but still below longer-term averages with slightly negative MACD). Valuation is less compelling due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided. Earnings call factors were mixed: maintained production guidance and strategic initiatives, but significant declines in revenue, profitability, and RIN pricing remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Stability

A moderate debt-to-equity ratio (0.30) and stable equity ratio indicate structural capital-strength, lowering refinancing and interest burdens. This durability supports project financing for RNG assets and preserves access to capital for growth over the next several months.

RNG and Renewable Electricity Production Growth

Increasing RNG output and higher renewable electricity generation reflect expanding operational scale and feedstock capture. Sustained production growth enhances long-term revenue capacity, contract fulfillment credibility, and incremental margin potential as utilization and commercialization improve.

Strategic JV to Improve RNG Utilization

Forming GreenWave Energy Partners with a marketing partner addresses long-standing off-take and utilization constraints. This strategic tie-up can durably expand market access, improve sales of environmental attributes, and increase realized pricing over time versus handling market access in-house.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline and Profitability Pressure

A large year-over-year revenue drop materially reduces operating scale and margin headroom, constraining reinvestment into projects and elevating per-unit fixed costs. Sustained top-line weakness over months threatens EBITDA traction and long-term cash generation.

Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion

Severely weakened free cash flow conversion limits the company’s ability to self-fund capital projects, service debt, or absorb commodity/credit price shocks. Poor cash conversion increases reliance on external financing and heightens execution risk for ongoing buildouts.

Credit Agreement Amendment Tightens Oversight

The credit amendment raises allowable leverage and imposes tighter reporting, signaling lender concern and reducing operational flexibility. Higher permitted leverage and enhanced oversight increase covenant and refinancing risk, potentially constraining strategic investments and timing.

Montauk Renewables Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Montauk Renewables (MNTK) is a leading renewable energy company focused on the production and marketing of renewable natural gas (RNG) derived from organic waste. The company operates in the renewable energy sector, primarily converting landfill gas and other organic materials into clean energy solutions. Montauk's core products include RNG, which is sold to utilities and other customers, as well as environmental attributes associated with their energy production, contributing to a more sustainable energy landscape.

How the Company Makes Money

Montauk Renewables generates revenue primarily through the sale of renewable natural gas (RNG) produced from organic waste sources, such as landfills and agricultural byproducts. The company capitalizes on various revenue streams, including the direct sale of RNG to utilities and industrial customers, as well as the monetization of environmental credits associated with its production processes, such as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Additionally, Montauk may engage in long-term contracts with customers, providing stable revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with waste management companies and energy providers further enhance its market reach and profitability, as these collaborations can create synergies in waste processing and energy distribution.

Montauk Renewables Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed but pressured: revenue declined (-11.39% TTM) and profitability is weak (1.46% net margin, EBIT margin negative). The balance sheet is relatively stable with moderate leverage (0.30 debt-to-equity), but cash flow is a key concern with sharply deteriorating free cash flow (negative growth of 175.39% TTM) and weaker cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income of 0.84).

Income Statement

Montauk Renewables has shown a decline in revenue growth with a negative growth rate of -11.39% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The gross profit margin has decreased slightly from previous years, reflecting potential cost pressures. The net profit margin is low at 1.46% in the TTM, and EBIT margin has turned negative, suggesting operational inefficiencies. However, the company maintains a reasonable EBITDA margin of 20.25%, indicating some level of operational cash flow generation.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30 in the TTM, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 1.01%, reflecting lower profitability on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but with reduced profitability.

Cash Flow

Montauk Renewables has experienced a significant decline in free cash flow, with a negative growth rate of 175.39% in the TTM, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.84, showing a decrease in cash generation efficiency. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights the company's struggle to convert earnings into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	160.68M	175.74M	174.90M	205.56M	148.13M	100.38M
Gross Profit	55.74M	77.57M	80.28M	104.13M	69.97M	38.64M
EBITDA	24.31M	40.97M	45.12M	65.73M	25.43M	25.06M
Net Income	-9.20M	9.73M	14.95M	35.19M	-4.53M	4.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	383.31M	349.01M	350.24M	332.32M	286.48M	253.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.77M	45.62M	73.81M	105.18M	53.27M	20.99M
Total Debt	72.97M	62.91M	68.09M	76.22M	79.53M	66.36M
Total Liabilities	122.58M	91.60M	100.00M	105.22M	104.19M	93.73M
Stockholders Equity	260.73M	257.42M	250.24M	227.09M	182.29M	159.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-53.37M	-18.53M	-22.04M	58.79M	32.89M	11.04M
Operating Cash Flow	30.72M	43.80M	41.05M	81.07M	42.88M	28.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-87.28M	-62.19M	-63.09M	-20.79M	-19.47M	-15.99M
Financing Cash Flow	8.33M	-9.84M	-9.33M	-8.28M	8.65M	-1.50M

Montauk Renewables Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNTK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.52, above the 50-day MA of 1.66, and above the 200-day MA of 2.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNTK.

Montauk Renewables Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CIG	70 Outperform	$6.90B	8.74	13.35%	12.98%	-0.38%	-53.94%
ELPC	67 Neutral	$7.44B	19.55	8.00%	5.43%	1.96%	-35.00%
AES	65 Neutral	$10.43B	8.92	23.02%	5.06%	-1.55%	12.83%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
BIP	59 Neutral	$16.70B	37.04	7.99%	4.92%	8.14%	―
MNTK	54 Neutral	$247.53M	-26.36	-3.43%	―	-17.54%	-139.94%

Montauk Renewables Corporate Events

Montauk Renewables amends credit agreement, adjusts leverage terms

On December 31, 2025, Montauk Energy Holdings, a subsidiary of Montauk Renewables, amended its existing revolving credit and term loan agreement, replacing the Total Leverage Ratio covenant with a new Total Net Leverage Ratio and increasing the allowable ratio to 3.50 to 1.00 for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, stepping down to 3.00 to 1.00 from March 31, 2026 onward. The amendment also tightened reporting requirements by obligating the subsidiary to provide additional monthly financial information and analysis to its lenders, a move that affects Montauk’s financial flexibility while enhancing lender oversight of the company’s performance and leverage profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNTK) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Montauk Renewables stock, see the MNTK Stock Forecast page.