Medallion Financial (MFIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $208.48M
• Dividend Yield: 4.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 43.20K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: 15.52%
• EPS Growth: 2.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 174
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 23,530,083
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 47,971
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 43,203
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.81
• 1Y Price Target: $12.00
• Price Target Upside: 35.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(18.51% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/11/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/11/26

The score is driven primarily by reasonably strong financial performance with some volatility risk, supported by very attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risks around credit costs and potential margin pressure despite constructive growth guidance.

Positive Factors

Strategic partnership growth

The rapid expansion of strategic partnership originations to record quarterly volumes diversifies origination channels beyond legacy books and scales originations quickly. As a durable distribution lever, partnerships lower single-book concentration, accelerate loan growth capability, and can sustainably seed higher net interest income as those channels mature.

Strong net interest income and margin

Consistent net interest income growth combined with an ~8% net interest margin underpins the company’s spread-based business model and recurring cash generation. Higher NII that management expects to outpace operating cost growth supports sustainable earnings, dividend capacity, and internal funding for loan origination over coming quarters.

Positive cash flow and capitalization

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow with recent modest growth strengthens the company's ability to fund loans, pay dividends, and retire debt. Coupled with improving equity and manageable leverage, this durable cash generation enhances financial flexibility for growth and capital returns without immediate external financing.

Negative Factors

Elevated recreation net charge-offs

High and rising net charge-offs in the largest loan segment materially erode returns and consume capital. Persistent elevated loss rates would force higher allowances or tighter underwriting, constrain sustainable originations, and impair mid-term ROE and distributable earnings if not reversed.

Spike in credit provisions

A large one-quarter provision and allowance step-up indicate realized or reassessed portfolio credit risk. If provisions remain elevated, they reduce retained earnings and capital available for growth, pressure reported profitability over multiple quarters, and may necessitate conservative underwriting or additional capital measures.

Margin pressure & rising operating costs

Management’s decision to lower origination rates to preserve credit economics, together with rising non-interest operating costs, risks compressing net interest margins and net income. Sustained rate moderation plus higher expenses would reduce cash available for buybacks/dividends and constrain long-term profitability.

Medallion Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Medallion Financial Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a finance company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Recreation Lending, Home Improvement Lending, Commercial Lending, and Medallion Lending. It provides loans that finance consumer purchases of recreational vehicles, boats, and trailers; consumer home improvements; commercial businesses; and taxi medallions to individuals, and small to mid-size businesses. The company also offers commercial loans for purchase of equipment and related assets necessary to open a new business, or purchase or improvement of an existing business; and medallion loans. In addition, it provides debt, mezzanine, and equity investment capital to companies in various industries; and raises deposits and conducts other banking activities. Medallion Financial Corp. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in New York City, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Medallion Financial primarily makes money by originating and holding loans and earning spread-based income. The core revenue driver is net interest income: the interest it collects from borrowers on consumer and commercial loans minus the interest it pays on its own funding sources (such as deposits and other borrowings, depending on the subsidiary and funding structure). In addition to interest spread, it generates non-interest income through loan-related fees (for example, origination and servicing-related fees where applicable) and may also recognize gains or losses tied to loan sales, securitizations, or changes in the fair value of certain financial assets or liabilities when those are used. As a financial holding company with bank and non-bank operations, its earnings are also influenced by credit performance (provisions for loan losses/charge-offs), funding costs, and underwriting/servicing scale. Specific named partnerships or major counterparty relationships: null.

Medallion Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength is solid (steady revenue growth and positive profitability since 2021), but margin and earnings quality have been volatile. Leverage looks manageable and equity has grown, yet ROE has trended down from earlier peaks. Cash flow is consistently positive, though coverage metrics have been inconsistent year to year.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years, accelerating in 2025 (annual) to ~8% growth versus modest growth in 2024. Profitability is generally solid with positive operating and net margins from 2021–2025, but earnings quality has been volatile: net margins fell meaningfully from 2021–2023 levels to ~12% in 2024–2025, and the business posted a loss in 2020. 2025 shows an unusually high gross and operating margin versus prior years, which improves the current-year profile but also raises the risk that margins are not sustainable.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable for the group, with debt-to-equity consistently around ~0.74–0.81 since 2021 (and improving from higher leverage in 2020). Equity has grown over time, supporting balance-sheet resilience, and returns on equity are positive in 2021–2025 (mid-to-high single digits in 2024–2025 after higher levels in 2021–2023). The key weakness is that profitability on equity has trended down from earlier peaks and the company has a history of stress (negative return on equity in 2020), which tempers the credit profile despite improved capitalization.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across all years shown, with modest growth most recently (free cash flow growth ~4.5% in 2025). Cash generation is sizable relative to reported earnings in both 2024 and 2025 (free cash flow equals net income in the data), which is supportive. The main concern is volatility in cash-flow coverage metrics—coverage was very strong in 2025 but extremely weak in 2021–2024—suggesting less consistent conversion/coverage and making cash-flow strength less predictable year to year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	353.31M	291.79M	254.51M	198.43M	179.21M
Gross Profit	341.81M	127.12M	153.76M	132.19M	143.44M
EBITDA	178.31M	69.15M	91.28M	73.08M	88.39M
Net Income	43.04M	35.88M	55.08M	43.84M	54.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.96B	2.87B	2.59B	2.26B	1.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	261.75M	101.17M	106.87M	81.66M	106.25M
Total Debt	316.28M	288.59M	253.06M	229.93M	231.23M
Total Liabilities	2.45B	2.43B	2.18B	1.89B	1.52B
Stockholders Equity	408.62M	370.17M	342.99M	301.74M	287.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	126.28M	115.51M	113.76M	108.74M	78.73M
Operating Cash Flow	126.28M	115.51M	113.76M	108.74M	78.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-124.49M	-335.78M	-340.70M	-449.00M	-238.32M
Financing Cash Flow	30.20M	239.99M	271.18M	321.38M	172.04M

Medallion Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MFIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.82, below the 50-day MA of 10.06, and below the 200-day MA of 9.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.32 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MFIN.

Medallion Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
MFIN	67 Neutral	$208.48M	5.44	11.82%	4.44%	15.52%	2.05%
CPSS	64 Neutral	$167.12M	10.30	6.34%	―	16.94%	-10.46%
OPRT	64 Neutral	$183.79M	10.05	6.66%	―	-5.29%	―
RM	62 Neutral	$290.27M	8.66	12.12%	2.99%	9.63%	77.14%
LPRO	52 Neutral	$169.45M	-43.40	-102.53%	―	-82.33%	-3365.80%
SUIG	46 Neutral	$109.83M	-0.25	-172.41%	―	-19.68%	-1055.59%

Medallion Financial Corporate Events

Medallion Financial Retires $31.25 Million in Notes

On February 26, 2026, Medallion Financial Corp. repaid at maturity the full $31.25 million aggregate principal amount of its privately placed notes. The retirement of this debt reduces the company’s outstanding obligations and may improve balance sheet flexibility and capital structure for future financing needs.

The repayment underscores Medallion Financial’s ability to meet its scheduled debt commitments, which may be viewed positively by creditors and investors assessing its credit profile. By extinguishing this tranche of privately placed notes on time, the company potentially lowers interest expense and enhances its financial positioning in the specialty finance market.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFIN) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medallion Financial stock, see the MFIN Stock Forecast page.

Medallion Financial posts strong Q4 results, exits medallions

On January 29, 2026, Medallion Bank reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by a 24% year-over-year increase in quarterly net income to $19.4 million and a 19% rise in full-year net income to $72.2 million. Net interest income and margins improved modestly, while non-interest income surged on the sale of the bank’s remaining taxi medallion assets, effectively exiting that legacy exposure and boosting profitability. Strategic partnership loan originations more than tripled in 2025 to $771.6 million, underscoring the growing importance of fintech relationships, and the total loan portfolio expanded to $2.4 billion with return on equity rising to 17.05%. Recreation lending remained the largest book at $1.617 billion with higher originations and slightly elevated charge-offs and provisions, reflecting both growth and tighter credit risk management, while the smaller home improvement segment saw reduced originations but improved asset quality, lower delinquencies and lower credit loss provisions. Capital levels were further strengthened as total capital increased to $450.2 million, aided by the net $27.1 million uplift from the issuance of Series G preferred stock and redemption of Series F, and the board declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Series G shares payable on April 1, 2026, signaling confidence in the bank’s capital position and earnings capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFIN) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medallion Financial stock, see the MFIN Stock Forecast page.

Medallion Financial Realigns Medallion Bank Executive Leadership Roles

On January 12, 2026, Medallion Financial Corp. and its subsidiary Medallion Bank implemented senior leadership changes through amended employment agreements with two key executives. Donald Poulton relinquished the title of president of Medallion Bank but remained its chief executive officer for the balance of his existing employment term, while David Justin Haley transitioned from executive vice president and chief financial officer to president of Medallion Bank under a new two‑year employment agreement that automatically renews, sets his annual base salary at $430,000 effective January 1, 2026, and provides severance protections and a non‑competition covenant, signaling a planned realignment of the bank’s executive structure without altering Poulton’s broader contractual terms.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFIN) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medallion Financial stock, see the MFIN Stock Forecast page.