Mizuho Financial (MFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $95.03B
• Dividend Yield: 2.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: -2.84%
• EPS Growth: 25.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 51,212
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 12,449,243,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,553,077
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,099,206
• PEG Ratio: 0.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 196.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.89
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.62
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $20.19B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▼(-20.16% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is held back primarily by financial fundamentals—high leverage and negative operating/free cash flow alongside declining revenue growth—despite healthy profitability margins. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought signals increase pullback risk. Valuation is reasonable but not compelling, with only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability Margins

Sustained net margins near 22.7% indicate the group generates strong earnings on revenue, reflecting efficient cost and product mix across banking, trust and securities. Over 2-6 months this margin buffer can absorb cyclical revenue dips and support internal capital accumulation and dividend capacity.

Improved Regulatory Capital

Higher CET1 and total capital ratios materially strengthen loss‑absorbing capacity and regulatory buffers. This improves resilience to credit or market stress, reduces short-term recapitalization risk, and gives management scope to support lending and capital markets activity for several quarters ahead.

Diversified Funding Access

Frequent access to international debt markets and a recent $1.8bn filing demonstrate diversified wholesale funding capabilities. That structural funding flexibility lowers concentration risk, supports liquidity management, and enables underwriting of lending or market positions without relying solely on domestic deposits.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

A D/E near 5.8 denotes heavy reliance on debt funding and a low equity cushion, increasing sensitivity to higher interest rates and funding shocks. Over months this constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing risk, and magnifies downside to equity if credit costs or market valuations deteriorate.

Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flows create structural liquidity pressure, forcing reliance on wholesale issuance or asset sales to fund operations. Over a multi-month horizon this undermines capacity to build capital internally and increases vulnerability to funding market dislocations.

Declining Revenue Growth

A multi-percent revenue decline reduces scale benefits and fee income, pressuring future earnings and ROE unless offset by cost cuts or non-core gains. Persisting top-line weakness limits reinvestment, constrains margin expansion opportunities, and elevates the importance of balance sheet management.

Mizuho Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Retail & Business Banking Company, Corporate & Institutional Company, Global Corporate Company, Global Markets Company, and Asset Management Company. The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services. It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities. In addition, it offers financial solutions, such as bonds, mergers and acquisitions advisory, risk hedging products, etc. for corporate customers to meet their needs in fund-raising, investment management, and financial strategies; solutions based on their capital management, business strategy, and financial strategy; real estate agency services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on proposals on various investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting. Further, the company offers sales and trading services to meet needs for customers; investment products for individual customers; and consulting services for institutional investors. Additionally, the company provides products and services related to trust, securitization and structured finance, pension, and stock transfers; securities services; and research, private banking, and information technology-related services. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mizuho Financial Group makes money primarily by earning interest income and fees across banking, trust, and securities businesses. A key revenue driver is net interest income: Mizuho Bank collects deposits and other funding and lends to customers (e.g., corporate loans, project and structured finance, and other credit products), earning interest on loans and securities holdings while paying interest on deposits and wholesale funding; the spread between these rates (plus the scale of the balance sheet) generates earnings. The group also generates non-interest income from fees and commissions. In banking, this includes fees for domestic and cross-border payments and cash management, trade finance, loan arrangement/agency services, and various transaction banking services. Through Mizuho Trust & Banking, it earns trust and fiduciary fees from pension and asset administration, custody services, real estate-related trust services, and other trust products where it acts as trustee/administrator and charges ongoing service fees. Through Mizuho Securities, it earns brokerage and underwriting-related revenue and advisory fees tied to capital markets activity, including equity and debt underwriting, sales and trading-related income, and mergers and acquisitions and other financial advisory fees. Additional earnings can come from gains/losses and investment returns on securities portfolios and other market-related activities, subject to market conditions and risk management. Overall profitability is influenced by interest-rate levels and yield curves (affecting lending and deposit margins), credit costs (loan losses and provisioning), capital markets issuance and trading volumes, client activity levels in advisory and transaction services, and the group’s funding mix and cost base.

Mizuho Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid (net margin 22.71%) and operating margins are stable, but financial risk is elevated due to high leverage (debt-to-equity 5.83) and liquidity pressure from negative operating and free cash flow. Declining revenue growth (-5.25%) also weakens the outlook.

Income Statement

Mizuho Financial's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 5.25% in the latest period, which is a concern. The net profit margin is healthy at 22.71%, but the negative revenue growth could impact future profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting consistent operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.83, suggesting significant leverage, which poses a risk in volatile markets. Return on equity is moderate at 8.48%, indicating decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is low, highlighting a reliance on debt financing, which could be a potential risk if interest rates rise.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the latest period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that despite negative cash flows, the company is generating income. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate and operating cash flow coverage ratio suggest liquidity issues that need addressing.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.33T	8.60T	7.86T	4.89T	2.84T	2.89T
Gross Profit	3.85T	3.59T	2.86T	2.58T	2.28T	2.26T
EBITDA	1.35T	1.40T	1.13T	945.90B	769.51B	819.14B
Net Income	1.05T	885.43B	678.99B	555.53B	530.48B	471.02B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	91.33T	83.48T	72.97T	67.15T	51.36T	74.42T
Total Debt	64.42T	60.89T	58.95T	45.34T	40.96T	40.31T
Total Liabilities	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>	10.00T>
Stockholders Equity	11.18T	10.44T	10.23T	9.13T	9.08T	9.26T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-4.17T	1.63T	8.68T	4.78T	16.40T
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-3.82T	1.88T	8.87T	4.92T	16.61T
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	3.79T	1.98T	6.61T	-1.86T	-9.76T
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-299.03B	-230.99B	-611.14B	-522.06B	40.82B

Mizuho Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.02
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.46, above the 50-day MA of 8.63, and above the 200-day MA of 6.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MFG.

Mizuho Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ITUB	74 Outperform	$88.92B	9.08	21.64%	9.77%	11.82%	3.41%
PNC	72 Outperform	$80.98B	10.18	11.88%	3.11%	1.79%	30.93%
IBN	69 Neutral	$98.70B	18.92	15.95%	0.85%	10.85%	7.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
USB	65 Neutral	$79.49B	10.95	12.12%	3.77%	2.91%	33.77%
LYG	64 Neutral	$74.14B	12.62	9.93%	3.19%	-20.94%	-18.71%
MFG	57 Neutral	$95.03B	10.79	9.73%	2.31%	-2.84%	25.48%

Mizuho Financial Corporate Events

Mizuho Financial Posts Stronger Capital Ratios as of December 31, 2025

On February 13, 2026, Mizuho Financial Group reported its regulatory capital ratios as of December 31, 2025, showing solid capitalization at both the group and key subsidiary levels under international and domestic standards. The consolidated Common Equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 13.76%, Tier 1 at 16.23%, and total capital ratio at 18.16%, with risk-weighted assets rising to ¥77.5 trillion, underscoring a stronger capital base despite higher risk exposure.

For its main banking arm, Mizuho Bank, the consolidated CET1, Tier 1, and total capital ratios improved to 12.44%, 15.15%, and 17.21%, respectively, while Mizuho Trust & Banking reported a notably high domestic standard capital ratio of 33.79%. The increases in capital and ratios versus March 31, 2025 data indicate bolstered loss-absorbing capacity and regulatory buffers, providing reassurance to creditors and shareholders about the group’s balance sheet resilience heading into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFG) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial stock, see the MFG Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Files Form 6-K Backing $1.8 Billion Senior Note Offering

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., the Japanese banking and financial services group, continues to leverage global capital markets as part of its broader funding strategy, using its Form F-3 shelf registration in the U.S. to support issuance of senior notes to international investors. The group’s activities reflect its established role as a frequent issuer of debt securities aimed at diversifying its funding base beyond Japan.

On February 12, 2026, Mizuho filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to incorporate into its existing Form F-3 prospectus legal opinions tied to a new dollar-denominated note offering. The filing supports an offering outside Japan of $1.8 billion in senior callable notes due 2032 and 2037, with Japanese and U.S. counsel confirming that, once issued and paid for under the February 5, 2026 underwriting agreement, the securities will constitute valid and binding obligations of the bank holding company under applicable law.

The submission, signed on February 12, 2026 by Senior Managing Executive Officer and Co-Head of Global Markets Kenya Koshimizu, formally updates the documentation base underpinning Mizuho’s U.S. shelf registration. By securing and disclosing these enforceability opinions from Nagashima Ohno & Tsunematsu and Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, Mizuho reinforces the legal certainty of the transaction for investors and maintains compliance standards required for its ongoing access to U.S. and international debt markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFG) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial stock, see the MFG Stock Forecast page.

Mizuho Financial Group Posts Higher Assets and Growing VIE Exposure in September 2025 Unaudited Balance Sheet

Mizuho Financial Group has reported unaudited consolidated balance sheet data comparing its financial position as of March 31, 2025 and September 30, 2025, showing a moderate expansion of its balance sheet over the six‑month period. Total assets rose from ¥276.7 trillion to ¥281.8 trillion, driven mainly by increases in trading account assets, available‑for‑sale securities, and net loans, while interest‑bearing deposits in other banks remained sizable and receivables under resale agreements and securities borrowing transactions stayed elevated. On the liabilities side, the group continued to rely heavily on domestic and foreign deposits, repurchase agreements, and other wholesale funding, with foreign interest‑bearing deposits and securities lending payables increasing, underscoring Mizuho’s active role in global funding and capital markets. The disclosure also details the assets of consolidated variable interest entities, which grew from ¥11.8 trillion to ¥12.6 trillion and are ring‑fenced to settle those entities’ obligations, highlighting the scale of off‑balance‑sheet‑type structures now consolidated under accounting rules and their contribution to the group’s overall risk and asset profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFG) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mizuho Financial stock, see the MFG Stock Forecast page.