Medpace Holdings (MEDP)
NASDAQ:MEDP
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Medpace Holdings
(NASDAQ:MEDP)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$527.00
▲(14.38% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (steady multi-year growth, high profitability, modest leverage, and excellent free cash flow) and supportive 2026 guidance/backlog visibility from the earnings call. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a premium valuation (P/E ~37) that raises execution risk.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Medpace's rising operating and free cash flow (FCF ~ $713M in 2025) indicates sustainable internal funding for operations, R&D support, and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing and cushions the business versus cyclical trial activity.
Negative Factors
High Reimbursable / Pass-Through Mix
A large and rising pass-through cost component (~41%–42% of revenue) inflates reported top line while offering low margin contribution and amplifying revenue volatility. Structurally higher reimbursables make underlying service margins and profitability more sensitive to therapeutic mix and client billing practices.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Medpace's rising operating and free cash flow (FCF ~ $713M in 2025) indicates sustainable internal funding for operations, R&D support, and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing and cushions the business versus cyclical trial activity.
Read all positive factors
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)400.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.9
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth13.88%
EPS Growth23.92%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.67
Shares Outstanding28,381,283
10 Day Avg. Volume344,673
30 Day Avg. Volume400,857
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.82
Price to Book (P/B)35.29
Price to Sales (P/S)6.40
P/FCF Ratio23.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$518.25Price Target Upside12.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)17.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.81B
Medpace Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, and Asia. It offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various ...
How the Company Makes Money
Medpace makes money by selling outsourced research and development services to life sciences sponsors, primarily for the conduct of clinical trials. Its revenue is generated through contracts with customers to perform clinical development work, wi...
Medpace Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Medpace Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear strengths: robust revenue and EBITDA growth in Q4 and full year 2025, strong cash generation, aggressive share repurchases, a healthy backlog, and positive 2026 guidance. Key near-term challenges include a spike in cancellations (notably in metabolic programs), modest margin compression due to higher reimbursable costs, and elevated pass-through exposure that may moderate reported top-line cadence early in 2026. Management expects hiring above 2025 levels but plans to rely on improved retention and productivity to support margins, and guidance assumes normalized cancellation rates. On balance, the company's fundamental growth, cash flow, and shareholder return actions outweigh the transient operational headwinds discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth (Q4 and Full Year 2025)
Q4 2025 revenue of $708.5M, up 32% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $2.53B, up 20% versus 2024.
Negative Updates
Elevated Cancellations in Q4
Backlog cancellations in absolute and percentage terms were the highest in over a year, producing a lower-than-anticipated net book-to-bill of 1.04 and a noticeable Q4 spike in cancellations (widespread rather than concentrated in one client).
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth (Q4 and Full Year 2025)
Q4 2025 revenue of $708.5M, up 32% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $2.53B, up 20% versus 2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 Medpace provided full‑year guidance calling for total revenue of $2.755 billion to $2.855 billion (growth of 8.9%–12.8% versus 2025’s $2.53 billion), EBITDA of $605 million to $635 million (up 8.5%–13.9% from 2025 EBITDA of $557.7 million), and net income of $487 million to $511 million, with diluted EPS of $16.68 to $17.50 (versus $15.28 in 2025). The outlook assumes a full‑year effective tax rate of 18.5%–19.5%, interest income of $24.3 million, 29.2 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding, no share repurchases included, and foreign exchange rates as of December 31, 2025; reimbursable costs are expected to be ~41%–42% of revenue (starting the year higher than they finish), management projects roughly $1.9 billion of backlog will convert to revenue over the next 12 months (ending backlog was ~$3.0 billion) and said the guidance midpoint reflects normal cancellation rates and anticipated mid‑to‑high single‑digit headcount growth.Medpace Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
91
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.53B | 2.11B | 1.89B | 1.46B | 1.14B |
| Gross Profit | 760.62M | 656.30M | 524.50M | 432.44M | 328.15M |
| EBITDA | 570.50M | 476.12M | 363.15M | 301.04M | 219.73M |
| Net Income | 451.12M | 404.39M | 282.81M | 245.37M | 181.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.98B | 2.10B | 1.66B | 1.35B | 1.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 497.05M | 669.44M | 245.45M | 28.27M | 461.30M |
| Total Debt | 250.50M | 149.52M | 142.12M | 188.87M | 130.97M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.52B | 1.28B | 1.10B | 966.11M | 707.01M |
| Stockholders Equity | 459.07M | 825.54M | 558.95M | 386.39M | 952.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 681.87M | 572.27M | 396.73M | 351.17M | 235.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 713.22M | 608.82M | 433.37M | 388.05M | 263.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.14M | -28.31M | -34.63M | -38.74M | -31.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -860.39M | -154.01M | -182.64M | -775.77M | -44.45M |
Medpace Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
460.74
Price Trends
506.67
Negative
543.88
Negative
490.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-10.00
Negative
45.69
Neutral
40.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MEDP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 460.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 458.88, below the 50-day MA of 506.67, and below the 200-day MA of 490.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -10.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MEDP.
Medpace Holdings Risk Analysis
Medpace Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medpace Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Medpace Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $13.25B | 35.91 | 118.82% | ― | 13.88% | 23.92% | |
70 Outperform | $7.64B | 1,437.41 | 6.32% | ― | -2.46% | -17.89% | |
70 Outperform | $45.84B | 51.15 | 69.78% | ― | 8.39% | 21.44% | |
64 Neutral | $9.82B | 27.94 | 3.24% | 0.29% | 3.37% | -18.80% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $8.17B | -69.93 | -4.40% | ― | -0.92% | -118.96% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.