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Medpace Holdings (MEDP)
NASDAQ:MEDP
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Medpace Holdings (MEDP) AI Stock Analysis

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MEDP

Medpace Holdings

(NASDAQ:MEDP)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$499.00
▲(9.51%Upside)
Medpace Holdings demonstrates strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook, supported by robust revenue growth and profitability. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, though the stock is potentially overbought. Valuation is fair, albeit with no dividend yield to attract income investors. Uncertainties around sustainable growth are a consideration.
Positive Factors
Funding Environment
The current stable and improved funding environment is seen as a supportive factor for MEDP's future operations.
Quarterly Performance
MEDP's strong quarterly performance exceeded low expectations, contributing to a significant stock price increase.
Revenue Outlook
Improved revenue outlook due to clients accelerating decisions, projects starting up more rapidly, and a shift toward faster burning therapeutic areas such as metabolic diseases.
Negative Factors
Analyst Downgrade
The analyst downgraded shares of MEDP to Sell from Hold, as the recent 55% move is believed to reflect short covering rather than a material change in fundamentals.
Stock Valuation
Shares are considered overvalued at 31 times the revised estimates relative to expected growth.

Medpace Holdings (MEDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Medpace Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMedpace Holdings, Inc. is a global contract research organization (CRO) that provides comprehensive clinical development services to the biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device industries. The company offers a range of services including study design, project management, clinical trial monitoring, data management, statistical analysis, and regulatory consulting. Medpace is known for its scientifically-driven approach and therapeutic expertise in various areas such as oncology, cardiology, metabolism, and infectious diseases.
How the Company Makes MoneyMedpace Holdings generates revenue primarily by providing contract research services to its clients in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device sectors. The company's revenue model is based on long-term contracts with these clients, where they charge fees for various phases of the clinical trial process, from study planning to execution and data analysis. Key revenue streams include project management, clinical monitoring, laboratory services, and regulatory consulting. Medpace's earnings are largely influenced by its ability to secure and maintain contracts with large pharmaceutical companies and biotech firms, as well as its reputation for delivering high-quality and efficient clinical trials. The company's integrated full-service model and strategic partnerships with clients play significant roles in driving its revenue growth.

Medpace Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 47.53%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a positive outlook with strong revenue growth, increased EBITDA, and improved revenue guidance. However, challenges such as decreased backlog, lower win rates, and higher reimbursable costs were noted. The sustainability of growth into 2026 remains uncertain.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue for Q2 2025 was $603.3 million, a year-over-year increase of 14.2%. Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was $1.16 billion, up 11.8%.
Increased EBITDA
EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $130.5 million, a 16.2% increase from $112.3 million in Q2 2024. On a constant currency basis, EBITDA increased 18.5%.
Improved Revenue Guidance
Revenue guidance for the full year 2025 increased by $280 million at the midpoint, with total revenue expected between $2.42 billion and $2.52 billion, representing growth of 14.7% to 19.5% over 2024.
Stable Funding Environment
The funding environment showed stability and improvement, with fewer cancellations and better-than-anticipated funding for ongoing studies.
Cash Flow and Share Repurchase
Generated $148.5 million in cash flow from operating activities and repurchased 1.75 million shares for $518.5 million during Q2 2025.
Negative Updates
Decreased Backlog
Ending backlog as of June 30, 2025, was $2.9 billion, a decrease of 1.8% from the prior year.
Lower Win Rate
The competitive win rate was lower in Q2 2025, influenced by losses on large projects despite a high number of decisions being made.
Higher Reimbursable Costs
EBITDA margin was impacted by higher reimbursable costs and foreign exchange losses due to a weaker U.S. dollar.
Concerns Over Sustainable Growth
Questions remain about the sustainability of growth rates into 2026, particularly if the mix of faster-burning studies and reimbursable costs changes.
Company Guidance
During Medpace's second-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company raised its revenue guidance by $280 million at the midpoint, reflecting a strong performance driven by several factors including improved funding, fewer cancellations, and a shift toward faster-burning therapeutic areas. The revenue for Q2 2025 was reported at $603.3 million, a 14.2% year-over-year increase, while net new business awards increased by 12.6% to $620.5 million, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.03x. The company anticipates a potential return to a book-to-bill ratio above 1.15x in Q3 2025. EBITDA for Q2 was $130.5 million, marking a 16.2% increase compared to the same quarter last year, with a margin of 21.6%. The guidance for full-year 2025 projects total revenue between $2.42 billion and $2.52 billion, representing growth of 14.7% to 19.5% over 2024, with an expected EBITDA range of $515 million to $545 million. The company also noted a significant increase in reimbursable costs and a forecasted net income range of $405 million to $428 million for 2025.

Medpace Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Medpace Holdings demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue and profitability growth. The company’s zero debt position is commendable, though the negative total assets may require further investigation. Overall, the financial position is solid, supported by strong cash flow metrics.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Medpace Holdings has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) total revenue increase of approximately 15% from the previous year. The gross profit margin remains robust at around 31.2%, and the net profit margin is healthy at 19.3%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong, indicating efficient operations. Overall, the income statement reflects solid growth and profitability trends.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, reflecting no leverage in the TTM period. Return on equity has improved to approximately 111.9%, demonstrating efficient use of shareholder equity to generate profits. However, the negative total assets in the TTM period is a concern that needs addressing, though it might be a reporting anomaly.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Medpace Holdings has shown positive cash flow trends, with a significant positive free cash flow and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of around 1.4 in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 1.3, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. These metrics suggest a strong cash flow position, supporting ongoing operations and potential growth initiatives.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.11B1.89B1.46B1.14B925.92M
Gross Profit656.30M524.50M432.44M328.15M278.73M
EBITDA476.12M363.15M301.04M219.73M186.57M
Net Income404.39M282.81M245.37M181.85M145.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.10B1.66B1.35B1.66B1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments669.44M245.45M28.27M461.30M277.77M
Total Debt149.52M142.12M188.87M130.97M115.14M
Total Liabilities1.28B1.10B966.11M707.01M584.90M
Stockholders Equity825.54M558.95M386.39M952.93M805.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow572.27M396.73M351.17M235.06M227.34M
Operating Cash Flow608.82M433.37M388.05M263.33M258.68M
Investing Cash Flow-28.31M-34.63M-38.74M-31.36M-31.21M
Financing Cash Flow-154.01M-182.64M-775.77M-44.45M-82.28M

Medpace Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price455.68
Price Trends
50DMA
316.37
Positive
100DMA
312.44
Positive
200DMA
326.67
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
27.94
Negative
RSI
74.17
Negative
STOCH
77.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MEDP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 455.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 338.63, above the 50-day MA of 316.37, and above the 200-day MA of 326.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 27.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.17 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MEDP.

Medpace Holdings Risk Analysis

Medpace Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medpace Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Medpace Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$43.48B49.9659.33%5.56%4.66%
78
Outperform
$12.29B32.5389.38%9.94%25.30%
70
Outperform
$8.25B449.94-0.92%-2.16%-107.31%
67
Neutral
$12.02B39.323.82%0.27%1.62%78.53%
62
Neutral
$13.56B17.268.30%-2.91%12.92%
52
Neutral
$7.61B0.10-63.03%2.08%16.34%0.32%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MEDP
Medpace Holdings
455.68
74.21
19.45%
CRL
Charles River Labs
177.10
-56.37
-24.14%
ICLR
Icon
195.01
-128.45
-39.71%
IDXX
Idexx Laboratories
549.97
80.26
17.09%
RVTY
Revvity
101.97
-12.87
-11.21%

Medpace Holdings Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Medpace Holdings Amends Credit Facility with PNC Bank
Positive
Jul 21, 2025

On July 17, 2025, Medpace Holdings, Inc. announced an amendment to its unsecured credit facility with PNC Bank, increasing the line of credit to $10 million. For the second quarter of 2025, Medpace reported a 14.2% increase in revenue to $603.3 million and a 16.2% rise in EBITDA to $130.5 million compared to the previous year. The company also repurchased shares worth $518.5 million during the quarter. Despite a slight decrease in backlog, Medpace’s financial results reflect strong growth and operational efficiency, positioning it well within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (MEDP) stock is a Hold with a $345.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medpace Holdings stock, see the MEDP Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder Meetings
Medpace Holdings Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 16, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Medpace Holdings, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key proposals were approved. The stockholders approved the 2016 Amended and Restated Incentive Award Plan, which extended the expiration date to February 6, 2035, without increasing the number of shares for issuance. Additionally, the election of Class III Directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm, and the advisory vote on executive compensation were all approved. A non-binding advisory stockholder proposal regarding simple majority voting was also passed.

The most recent analyst rating on (MEDP) stock is a Hold with a $345.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medpace Holdings stock, see the MEDP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025