Modiv (MDV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $148.01M
• Dividend Yield: 7.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 33.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 75.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: -2.40%
• EPS Growth: 42.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): -0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 10,158,304
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 39,548
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 33,914
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.86
• 1Y Price Target: $17.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▲(4.45% Upside)

Modiv's stock score is driven by operational efficiency and a strong dividend yield, appealing to income investors. However, profitability challenges and high leverage pose risks. The earnings call provided positive growth insights, but market volatility remains a concern.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The 4% revenue growth indicates Modiv's ability to expand its income base through strategic property acquisitions, enhancing long-term stability and market presence.

Strong AFFO Performance

A 22% increase in AFFO underscores Modiv's effective cost management and operational efficiency, supporting sustainable cash flow and shareholder returns.

Lease Extension Achievement

Extending key leases like Northrop's enhances portfolio stability and ensures consistent rental income, reinforcing Modiv's long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially straining cash flow and limiting flexibility, which could impact Modiv's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Profitability Challenges

Negative net profit margins highlight ongoing profitability challenges, which may hinder Modiv's ability to generate returns and reinvest in its business.

Declining Free Cash Flow Growth

Declining free cash flow growth suggests potential difficulties in funding operations and investments, which could affect Modiv's long-term financial strategy.

Modiv Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Modiv Inc., (the Company) was incorporated on May 14, 2015 as a Maryland corporation. The Company was formed to primarily invest, directly or indirectly, in real estate owning entities which own single-tenant income-producing properties located in the United States, which are leased to creditworthy tenants under long-term net leases. The Company's goal is to generate current income for investors and long-term capital appreciation in the value of its properties.

How the Company Makes Money

Modiv makes money primarily through the rental income generated from its portfolio of real estate properties. As a REIT, Modiv leases its properties to tenants under long-term net leases, where tenants are responsible for the majority of property expenses such as maintenance, insurance, and taxes. This structure allows Modiv to maintain a steady revenue stream while minimizing operating costs. Additionally, Modiv may engage in strategic property acquisitions and dispositions to optimize its portfolio and enhance shareholder value. The company might also benefit from appreciation in property values, which can contribute to its overall financial performance.

Modiv Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Modiv shows operational efficiency with strong gross profit and EBITDA margins. However, profitability challenges are evident with negative net income and return on equity. High leverage increases financial risk, necessitating careful management. Cash flow generation is positive, but the decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.

Income Statement

Modiv's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 84.18%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -3.40%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. Revenue growth is positive at 0.91% TTM, but the company has experienced fluctuations in previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting operational efficiency, but the negative net income remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.73 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative at -0.90%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high leverage suggests a need for cautious financial management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -3.62% TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 7.59, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its net income, despite profitability challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	47.01M	46.76M	47.23M	43.82M	36.22M	38.24M
Gross Profit	39.57M	43.15M	42.07M	37.55M	29.53M	31.90M
EBITDA	35.14M	33.74M	24.36M	27.09M	19.42M	20.17M
Net Income	-1.60M	6.02M	-6.61M	-3.29M	-435.50K	-49.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	498.85M	507.83M	530.90M	456.03M	428.49M	407.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.81M	11.53M	3.13M	8.61M	55.97M	8.25M
Total Debt	287.28M	279.90M	279.73M	195.45M	181.95M	191.51M
Total Liabilities	292.64M	293.78M	305.77M	214.99M	206.06M	217.18M
Stockholders Equity	165.60M	190.15M	144.44M	159.75M	171.83M	139.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.53M	18.24M	16.58M	10.15M	9.53M	5.01M
Operating Cash Flow	17.53M	18.24M	16.58M	16.65M	9.73M	5.58M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.54M	8.39M	-93.60M	-61.06M	21.83M	24.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-25.05M	-18.23M	71.54M	-5.38M	18.47M	-28.91M

Modiv Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.70, above the 50-day MA of 14.69, and above the 200-day MA of 14.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDV.

Modiv Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
FVR	59 Neutral	$387.58M	―	-0.37%	6.18%	―	―
MDV	56 Neutral	$148.01M	75.12	-1.11%	7.85%	-2.40%	42.84%
MDRR	50 Neutral	$29.06M	471.19	-17.09%	1.98%	-6.82%	7.33%
SQFT	43 Neutral	$8.29M	―	-41.30%	4.02%	1.35%	-129.09%
MKZR	42 Neutral	$9.19M	―	-36.45%	67.37%	40.20%	-493.10%
GIPR	42 Neutral	$5.88M	―	-270.04%	14.71%	0.70%	26.52%

Modiv Corporate Events

Modiv Announces Quarterly Dividend for Preferred Stock

On September 12, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced a quarterly dividend for its Series A Preferred Stock, set at $0.4609375 per share, to be paid on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2025. This announcement reflects Modiv’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its preferred shareholders, reinforcing its position in the industrial manufacturing real estate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.

Modiv Reports Q2 2025 Results with AFFO Growth

On August 7, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced its second-quarter results for the period ending June 30, 2025, reporting a revenue of $11.8 million and a net loss of $2.8 million. Despite the loss, the company achieved a 22% year-over-year increase in Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO), surpassing consensus estimates. The company also secured a 5-year lease renewal with Northrop Grumman, indicating stability in its operations. CEO Aaron Halfacre highlighted the company’s disciplined approach amidst market volatility and noted potential opportunities in debt refinancing and asset recycling, which could enhance future financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.

Modiv Holds 2025 Annual Meeting, Elects Directors

On July 23, 2025, Modiv Industrial, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. During the meeting, stockholders elected five directors to serve until the 2026 annual meeting. They also ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, stockholders approved the compensation for the named executive officers for the year ended December 31, 2024, but did not approve the Reverse Stock Split Proposal.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.