Modiv (MDV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $151.25M
• Dividend Yield: 8.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 32.88K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.33
• Revenue Growth: -0.59%
• EPS Growth: -160.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 10,274,997
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 34,054
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 32,882
• PEG Ratio: -0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.83
• 1Y Price Target: $17.50
• Price Target Upside: 19.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $46.90M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▲(5.66% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by improving financial positioning (better leverage, positive operating cash flow) but held back by volatile bottom-line profitability and weakening recent FCF growth. Technically, the stock shows mild positive momentum above key averages. Valuation is mixed—an attractive dividend yield offset by a negative P/E—while the latest call and subsequent events point to disciplined capital allocation and liquidity improvements amid ongoing transaction and cost headwinds.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage profile

Modiv’s reported material reduction in debt (TTM showing zero vs prior years' meaningful leverage) meaningfully lowers interest burden and increases financial flexibility. That supports disciplined acquisitions, dividend coverage and resilience across economic cycles, enhancing long-term stability.

Re-accelerated revenue & strong operating margins

Sustained revenue re-acceleration and solid operating margins indicate the core net-lease portfolio is generating durable cash from operations. Robust EBITDA supports internal funding for maintenance, distributions and selective acquisitions, improving long-term cash flow reliability despite bottom-line variability.

Predictable net-lease model & consistent distributions

The company’s net-leased single-tenant model creates contractual, long-duration rent streams and Modiv’s consistent monthly distributions demonstrate management’s emphasis on returning cash. Predictable rental contracts underpin durable payout capacity and appeal to income-focused investors over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Earnings volatility and negative net margin

Persistent bottom-line volatility and a negative TTM net margin signal uneven profitability below operating income. This reduces retained earnings, complicates sustainable dividend funding and heightens reliance on asset sales or external capital, weakening long-term earnings reliability.

Sharply negative free-cash-flow growth

A steep decline in FCF growth undermines the company’s ability to self-fund acquisitions, capex and distributions without tapping markets. Over months, weaker FCF growth raises financing risk, may force dilutive equity or higher-cost debt, and limits strategic optionality during downturns.

Transaction uncertainty and property-level expense drag

Prolonged uncertainty on key asset closings and ongoing property-level expenses (e.g., a noted monthly $40k bleed) reduce near-term cash available and delay planned asset recycling. Over the medium term, this can impair acquisition funding, increase holding costs and strain operational margins.

Modiv Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Modiv Inc., (the Company) was incorporated on May 14, 2015 as a Maryland corporation. The Company was formed to primarily invest, directly or indirectly, in real estate owning entities which own single-tenant income-producing properties located in the United States, which are leased to creditworthy tenants under long-term net leases. The Company's goal is to generate current income for investors and long-term capital appreciation in the value of its properties.

How the Company Makes Money

Modiv generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of industrial and logistics properties leased to a variety of tenants. The company typically signs long-term leases, which provides a consistent cash flow. Additionally, Modiv may engage in property sales or acquisitions, generating capital gains that can be reinvested or distributed to shareholders. The company also benefits from partnerships with property management firms and other stakeholders in the real estate market, which can enhance operational efficiencies and potentially create additional revenue opportunities through joint ventures or co-investments.

Modiv Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Modiv shows operational efficiency with strong gross profit and EBITDA margins. However, profitability challenges are evident with negative net income and return on equity. High leverage increases financial risk, necessitating careful management. Cash flow generation is positive, but the decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.

Income Statement

Modiv's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 84.18%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -3.40%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. Revenue growth is positive at 0.91% TTM, but the company has experienced fluctuations in previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting operational efficiency, but the negative net income remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.73 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative at -0.90%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high leverage suggests a need for cautious financial management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -3.62% TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 7.59, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its net income, despite profitability challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	47.48M	46.76M	47.23M	43.82M	37.89M	38.94M
Gross Profit	43.98M	43.15M	42.07M	37.27M	31.01M	31.94M
EBITDA	36.85M	42.47M	24.36M	18.04M	22.56M	20.17M
Net Income	1.41M	6.02M	-6.61M	-3.29M	-435.50K	-49.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	499.57M	507.83M	530.90M	454.43M	428.49M	407.45M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.26M	11.53M	3.13M	8.61M	55.97M	8.25M
Total Debt	0.00	279.90M	279.73M	196.01M	184.08M	191.54M
Total Liabilities	294.77M	293.78M	305.77M	213.40M	206.06M	217.20M
Stockholders Equity	164.82M	190.15M	144.44M	159.75M	171.83M	139.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.53M	18.24M	16.58M	16.65M	9.53M	5.01M
Operating Cash Flow	16.53M	18.24M	16.58M	16.65M	9.73M	5.58M
Investing Cash Flow	1.88M	8.39M	-93.60M	-61.06M	21.83M	24.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.29M	-18.23M	71.54M	-5.38M	18.47M	-28.91M

Modiv Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.67
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.48, above the 50-day MA of 14.54, and above the 200-day MA of 14.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDV.

Modiv Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
MDV	63 Neutral	$151.25M	-54.29	0.37%	8.15%	-0.59%	-160.22%
FVR	63 Neutral	$457.17M	-17.64	-4.39%	5.74%	―	―
MDRR	48 Neutral	$26.87M	-7.53	-18.66%	2.06%	-0.05%	-150.66%
MKZR	43 Neutral	$9.01M	-0.31	-33.51%	86.42%	26.56%	-20.97%
SQFT	41 Neutral	$4.66M	-0.41	-26.78%	―	-2.79%	72.36%
GIPR	39 Underperform	$4.05M	-0.39	-904.27%	―	-4.77%	23.08%

Modiv Corporate Events

Modiv Extends Credit Facility and Announces CFO Transition

On January 16, 2026, Modiv Industrial amended its existing credit agreement, extending the maturity of its credit facility by 18 months to July 18, 2028, eliminating a 10-basis-point SOFR adjustment and loosening distribution covenants to permit repurchases of its 7.375% Series A preferred stock when funded by recent equity issuance or asset sale proceeds. That same day, longtime finance executive Raymond J. Pacini notified the board he would step down as chief financial officer, secretary and treasurer following the filing of the company’s 2025 annual report, remaining as executive vice president, while general counsel and chief operating officer John C. Raney was appointed to succeed him as CFO and secretary without changes to his compensation. The board also declared monthly cash dividends of $0.10 per share on Class C common stock for record dates at the end of January, February and March 2026, representing an annualized distribution of $1.20 per share and the second dividend increase in two years, supported by more than $2 million in additional AFFO generated through rent escalations, cost reductions, preferred share repurchases and selective asset recycling. In parallel, Modiv advanced its ongoing portfolio transformation by selling an office asset in Issaquah, Washington, securing a no-contingency contract to sell a vacant property in St. Paul, Minnesota for $4.1 million, and acquiring the remaining 27.2% tenant-in-common interest in its Santa Clara, California property, steps that further reduce office exposure, simplify ownership structures and set up a more intensive recycling of 12 to 15 non-core or shorter-lease assets over the next 24 months via tax-efficient 1031 exchanges. The board expanded and extended the preferred stock repurchase program to December 31, 2027 with total capacity of $49.6 million, leaving about $42.0 million available, and voted to terminate the company’s distribution reinvestment plan effective February 15, 2026, meaning that, after the January dividend, all common shareholders will receive cash distributions rather than share reinvestments, a move that, together with the dividend increase and liability management, underscores Modiv’s emphasis on cash returns and balance sheet optimization as it seeks to bolster AFFO per share and improve its positioning for future institutional capital while avoiding dilutive equity issuance at what management views as an undervalued share price.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.

Modiv Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend for Preferred Stock

On December 11, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.4609375 per share for its 7.375% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock, payable on January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its preferred stockholders, although future dividends will depend on the company’s financial condition and board decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.

Modiv Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Modiv Industrial reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, showing a revenue of $11.7 million and a net income of $0.3 million. The company achieved an AFFO of $4.5 million, a 22% increase from the previous year, surpassing analyst expectations. The CEO, Aaron Halfacre, emphasized the company’s strategy of patience and discipline in the volatile REIT market, focusing on creating shareholder value rather than rapid expansion. Modiv’s approach includes maintaining a strong balance sheet and avoiding dilutive capital actions, aiming for long-term value creation despite market challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.