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Modiv Inc. Class C (MDV)
:MDV
US Market

Modiv (MDV) AI Stock Analysis

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Modiv

(NYSE:MDV)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(5.73%Upside)
The overall score reflects strong financial stability due to zero debt and solid cash flow management. However, inconsistencies in profitability and recent technical indicators showing bearish momentum temper this strength. The attractive dividend yield offers some compensation for these challenges.
Positive Factors
Asset Strategy
The focus on manufactured industrial and the selling of retail and office properties has mostly occurred, benefiting from well-located unique assets and an attractive valuation.
Earnings
The company reported AFFO numbers of $0.33, four cents higher than consensus numbers and three cents higher than analyst numbers, representing an 18% increase year-over-year.
Negative Factors
Leverage
The company has above average leverage with debt and preferred to total market cap at approximately 64%.

Modiv (MDV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Modiv Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionModiv (MDV) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on acquiring, owning, and managing a diversified portfolio of essential properties across the United States. The company primarily invests in single-tenant net-lease retail, office, and industrial properties that are leased to high-quality tenants. Modiv aims to provide its investors with stable and growing cash distributions through its strategic property management and acquisition strategies.
How the Company Makes MoneyModiv makes money primarily through the rental income generated from its portfolio of real estate properties. As a REIT, Modiv leases its properties to tenants under long-term net leases, where tenants are responsible for the majority of property expenses such as maintenance, insurance, and taxes. This structure allows Modiv to maintain a steady revenue stream while minimizing operating costs. Additionally, Modiv may engage in strategic property acquisitions and dispositions to optimize its portfolio and enhance shareholder value. The company might also benefit from appreciation in property values, which can contribute to its overall financial performance.

Modiv Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.95%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted positive financial metrics such as increased AFFO and strong debt management, alongside challenges including rental income decline and market volatility. The company's strategic buyback of preferred shares and regular dividends were positive, but market uncertainties and asset disposition difficulties presented concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) Increase
AFFO was $3.9 million, an 18% increase compared to $3.3 million in the same quarter of the previous year, driven by a $195,000 increase in cash rental income, $200,000 decrease in cash interest expense, and $140,000 decrease in property expenses.
Strong Portfolio with Long Lease Terms
The company has a weighted average lease term of 14.2 years, with manufacturing leases extending beyond 20 years, ensuring stable long-term income.
Successful Debt Management
100% of indebtedness is at a fixed interest rate of 4.27%, and there are no debt maturities until January 2027, reducing financial risk.
Preferred Shares Buyback
The company repurchased 13.8% of its preferred shares outstanding, which will save over $400,000 annually in preferred dividends.
Regular Dividend Payments
The Board declared a cash dividend for common shares of $0.0975 for each of the months of April, May, and June 2025, representing an annualized dividend rate of $1.17 per share, yielding 8%.
Negative Updates
Rental Income Decline
Rental income decreased by 2% to $11.7 million from $11.9 million due to the disposition of two properties with expiring leases.
Headcount Reduction and Non-recurring Expenses
The company reduced its headcount from 12 to 9 employees and incurred $200,000 in non-recurring separation pay.
Market Volatility Concerns
Significant market volatility and uncertainty were discussed, impacting the company's stock price and market perception.
Challenges in Asset Dispositions
Difficulty in selling or leasing the vacant Minneapolis asset, which is not expected to resolve quickly.
Potential Delays in Asset Sales
The sale of the Costco property is subject to potential delays due to municipal approval processes and market conditions.
Company Guidance
During Modiv Industrial Inc.'s first quarter 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance were shared. The company's rental income for the quarter was $11.7 million, reflecting a 2% decrease from the prior year due to property dispositions. However, the adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) increased by 18% to $3.9 million compared to the previous year. The weighted average lease term across Modiv's portfolio is 14.2 years, with 43 properties and an annualized base rent of $39.4 million. Approximately 30% of tenants have an investment-grade credit rating, and the company's leverage ratio was reported at 47.6% with total debt of $280 million. The board declared a cash dividend of $0.0975 per share for each of the months of April, May, and June 2025, translating to an annualized yield of 8%. The company remains cautious about acquisitions due to the current economic environment but continues to explore opportunities for growth and capital recycling.

Modiv Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Modiv demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, indicated by solid gross profit margins and improved EBIT and EBITDA margins. The elimination of debt enhances financial stability, although net income has been inconsistent, affecting overall profitability. Cash flow management is robust, yet free cash flow growth has been inconsistent.
Income Statement
64
Positive
Modiv has shown growth in revenue over the years, albeit with some volatility. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating efficient cost management, with a notable improvement in EBIT and EBITDA margins annually. However, net income has been inconsistent, showing significant losses in several years, which affects overall profitability.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a solid equity position with a debt-free status in the latest year, which significantly improves financial stability. The return on equity has been erratic due to fluctuating net income. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting strong financial footing, although past years show a reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow from operations has steadily improved, translating into positive free cash flow, which demonstrates good cash generation capacity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, suggesting effective conversion of income into cash flow. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth indicate potential volatility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue46.59M46.76M47.23M46.17M36.22M38.90M
Gross Profit43.11M43.15M42.07M37.27M29.53M31.90M
EBITDA37.63M42.47M24.36M27.46M32.55M21.65M
Net Income3.12M6.02M-6.61M-19.93M-8.58M-62.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets506.80M507.83M530.90M456.03M428.49M407.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.17M11.53M3.13M8.61M55.97M8.25M
Total Debt0.00279.90M279.73M195.45M181.95M191.51M
Total Liabilities293.43M293.78M305.77M214.99M206.06M217.18M
Stockholders Equity171.11M190.15M144.44M159.75M171.83M139.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow18.19M18.24M16.58M10.15M9.53M5.01M
Operating Cash Flow18.30M18.24M16.58M16.65M9.73M5.58M
Investing Cash Flow-7.15M8.39M-93.60M-61.06M21.83M24.78M
Financing Cash Flow-23.39M-18.23M71.54M-5.38M18.47M-28.91M

Modiv Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price14.66
Price Trends
50DMA
14.49
Positive
100DMA
14.74
Negative
200DMA
14.95
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Negative
RSI
54.58
Neutral
STOCH
74.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.35, above the 50-day MA of 14.49, and below the 200-day MA of 14.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDV.

Modiv Risk Analysis

Modiv disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Modiv reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Modiv Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MDMDV
64
Neutral
$148.34M75.121.54%7.98%-4.13%79.39%
63
Neutral
$6.92B18.42-1.93%6.88%4.65%-25.39%
FVFVR
62
Neutral
$223.69M-0.37%3.67%
52
Neutral
$8.49M-110.42%8.01%10.31%39.90%
50
Neutral
$5.97M-49.21%4.02%2.72%-584.61%
46
Neutral
$22.41M471.19-16.85%2.67%-10.27%-32.99%
39
Underperform
$10.53M-28.98%29.81%43.87%-4679.89%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MDV
Modiv
14.58
1.32
9.95%
MDRR
Medalist Diversified REIT
10.65
-1.43
-11.84%
GIPR
Generation Income Properties
1.47
-2.40
-62.02%
SQFT
Presidio Property Trust
5.00
-1.41
-22.00%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
11.92
-6.58
-35.57%
MKZR
MacKenzie Realty Capital, Inc.
0.65
-2.07
-76.10%

Modiv Corporate Events

Dividends
Modiv Announces Quarterly Dividend and Monthly Distributions
Positive
Jun 18, 2025

On June 18, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced the declaration of a quarterly dividend for its Series A Preferred Stock and monthly distributions for its Class C common stock. The quarterly dividend for the second quarter of 2025 is set at $0.4609375 per share, with a payment date of July 15, 2025. Additionally, monthly distributions for July, August, and September 2025 for the common stock are declared at $0.0975 per share, maintaining an annual distribution rate of $1.17. These announcements reflect Modiv’s ongoing commitment to providing consistent returns to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDV) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Modiv stock, see the MDV Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Modiv Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results and Lease Renewal
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced its first quarter 2025 financial results, reporting a revenue of $11.8 million and a net income of $2,000 attributable to common stockholders. The company achieved an 18% year-over-year increase in AFFO, beating consensus estimates. Modiv also executed a 10-year lease renewal with FujiFilm and repurchased 275,000 shares of preferred stock. The company highlighted its support for U.S. manufacturing amid tariff impacts, noting that its tenants have not experienced significant negative effects from recent tariffs, and emphasized the potential for increased utilization of existing manufacturing assets.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025