Modiv (MDV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $148.47M
• Dividend Yield: 8.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 32.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.33
• Revenue Growth: -0.59%
• EPS Growth: -160.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 10,274,997
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 36,998
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 32,691
• PEG Ratio: -0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.83
• 1Y Price Target: $17.50
• Price Target Upside: 21.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $46.50M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.00 ▲(3.81% Upside)

Modiv's stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance, which shows operational efficiency but significant profitability challenges and high leverage. Technical analysis indicates a stable trend, while valuation concerns persist due to a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provides a mixed outlook with cautious optimism but highlights ongoing challenges.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Strong gross profit and EBITDA margins indicate effective cost management and operational efficiency, which can support long-term profitability.

Commitment to Shareholder Returns

Regular dividends reflect a commitment to returning value to shareholders, enhancing investor confidence and supporting stock stability.

Acquisition Opportunities

Identifying new acquisition opportunities can drive growth and diversification, strengthening Modiv's market position and revenue potential.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability challenges, such as negative net income, hinder the ability to generate shareholder returns and reinvest in growth.

Revenue Decline

A decline in rental income could indicate challenges in maintaining occupancy or rental rates, impacting cash flow and financial stability.

Modiv Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Modiv Inc., (the Company) was incorporated on May 14, 2015 as a Maryland corporation. The Company was formed to primarily invest, directly or indirectly, in real estate owning entities which own single-tenant income-producing properties located in the United States, which are leased to creditworthy tenants under long-term net leases. The Company's goal is to generate current income for investors and long-term capital appreciation in the value of its properties.

How the Company Makes Money

Modiv generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of industrial and logistics properties leased to a variety of tenants. The company typically signs long-term leases, which provides a consistent cash flow. Additionally, Modiv may engage in property sales or acquisitions, generating capital gains that can be reinvested or distributed to shareholders. The company also benefits from partnerships with property management firms and other stakeholders in the real estate market, which can enhance operational efficiencies and potentially create additional revenue opportunities through joint ventures or co-investments.

Modiv Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Modiv shows operational efficiency with strong gross profit and EBITDA margins. However, profitability challenges are evident with negative net income and return on equity. High leverage increases financial risk, necessitating careful management. Cash flow generation is positive, but the decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.

Income Statement

Modiv's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 84.18%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -3.40%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. Revenue growth is positive at 0.91% TTM, but the company has experienced fluctuations in previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting operational efficiency, but the negative net income remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.73 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative at -0.90%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high leverage suggests a need for cautious financial management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -3.62% TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 7.59, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its net income, despite profitability challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	47.48M	46.76M	47.23M	43.82M	37.89M	38.94M
Gross Profit	43.98M	43.15M	42.07M	37.27M	31.01M	31.94M
EBITDA	36.85M	42.47M	24.36M	18.04M	22.56M	20.17M
Net Income	1.41M	6.02M	-6.61M	-3.29M	-435.50K	-49.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	499.57M	507.83M	530.90M	454.43M	428.49M	407.45M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.26M	11.53M	3.13M	8.61M	55.97M	8.25M
Total Debt	0.00	279.90M	279.73M	196.01M	184.08M	191.54M
Total Liabilities	294.77M	293.78M	305.77M	213.40M	206.06M	217.20M
Stockholders Equity	164.82M	190.15M	144.44M	159.75M	171.83M	139.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.53M	18.24M	16.58M	16.65M	9.53M	5.01M
Operating Cash Flow	16.53M	18.24M	16.58M	16.65M	9.73M	5.58M
Investing Cash Flow	1.88M	8.39M	-93.60M	-61.06M	21.83M	24.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.29M	-18.23M	71.54M	-5.38M	18.47M	-28.91M

Modiv Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.66, below the 50-day MA of 14.50, and above the 200-day MA of 14.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MDV.

Modiv Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
FVR	61 Neutral	$434.60M	-16.96	-4.39%	5.74%	―	―
MDV	54 Neutral	$148.47M	―	0.37%	8.15%	-0.59%	-160.22%
MKZR	49 Neutral	$7.21M	-0.26	-33.51%	86.42%	26.56%	-20.97%
MDRR	48 Neutral	$27.65M	-7.25	-18.66%	2.06%	-0.05%	-150.66%
SQFT	40 Underperform	$4.68M	-0.51	-26.78%	―	-2.79%	72.36%
GIPR	39 Underperform	$3.94M	-0.39	-904.27%	―	-4.77%	23.08%

Modiv Corporate Events

Modiv Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend for Preferred Stock

On December 11, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.4609375 per share for its 7.375% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock, payable on January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its preferred stockholders, although future dividends will depend on the company’s financial condition and board decisions.

Modiv Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Modiv Industrial reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, showing a revenue of $11.7 million and a net income of $0.3 million. The company achieved an AFFO of $4.5 million, a 22% increase from the previous year, surpassing analyst expectations. The CEO, Aaron Halfacre, emphasized the company’s strategy of patience and discipline in the volatile REIT market, focusing on creating shareholder value rather than rapid expansion. Modiv’s approach includes maintaining a strong balance sheet and avoiding dilutive capital actions, aiming for long-term value creation despite market challenges.

Modiv Declares Regular Monthly Cash Distributions

On October 17, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced the declaration of regular monthly cash distributions of $0.0975 per share on its Class C common stock for October, November, and December 2025, maintaining an annual distribution rate of $1.17 per share. This decision reflects a consistent dividend yield of 8.1% based on the company’s recent stock price. Additionally, Modiv Industrial will report its financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 14, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for the same day to discuss the results. These announcements underscore Modiv’s commitment to providing consistent returns to shareholders and maintaining transparency in its financial performance.

Modiv Announces Quarterly Dividend for Preferred Stock

On September 12, 2025, Modiv Industrial announced a quarterly dividend for its Series A Preferred Stock, set at $0.4609375 per share, to be paid on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2025. This announcement reflects Modiv’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its preferred shareholders, reinforcing its position in the industrial manufacturing real estate sector.