LiveWire Group (LVWR)
NYSE:LVWR
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LiveWire Group
(NYSE:LVWR)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-65.20% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (negative gross profit, severe operating losses, heavy cash burn, and higher leverage). Technicals also remain bearish with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting factors are limited but include constructive strategic actions and partnerships plus mixed-but-stable guidance, though management still expects sizable LiveWire losses and notable tariff headwinds.
Positive Factors
Acquisition expands product portfolio
Acquiring Dust Moto provides LiveWire with off-road product IP and platforms, broadening addressable market beyond on-road motorcycles. This diversification leverages existing manufacturing and sales scale, improving long-term growth optionality and reducing concentration risk in the powersports portfolio.
Negative Factors
Heavy cash burn and negative free cash flow
Persistent, sizable negative operating and free cash flow requires ongoing external funding and raises refinancing risk. Over a multi-month horizon, continued cash consumption can force dilutive financing, constrain investment in production or marketing, and limit the company’s ability to reach breakeven.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Acquisition expands product portfolio
Acquiring Dust Moto provides LiveWire with off-road product IP and platforms, broadening addressable market beyond on-road motorcycles. This diversification leverages existing manufacturing and sales scale, improving long-term growth optionality and reducing concentration risk in the powersports portfolio.
Read all positive factors
LiveWire Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks revenue into regions so you can see where demand is strongest and where the company is exposed to market or regulatory risks. For an EV-focused manufacturer, geographic splits reveal how well the company is penetrating key markets, benefiting from local incentives, and diversifying revenue beyond any single country.
Breaks revenue into regions so you can see where demand is strongest and where the company is exposed to market or regulatory risks. For an EV-focused manufacturer, geographic splits reveal how well the company is penetrating key markets, benefiting from local incentives, and diversifying revenue beyond any single country.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLiveWire Group (LVWR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$284.62M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)60.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.41
Revenue Growth14.94%
EPS Growth17.68%
CountryUS
Employees182
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.36
Shares Outstanding204,761,830
10 Day Avg. Volume76,426
30 Day Avg. Volume60,942
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)19.56
Price to Sales (P/S)35.08
P/FCF Ratio-15.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-104.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.63
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.98M
LiveWire Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LiveWire Group (LVWR) is an innovative electric motorcycle manufacturer that operates within the rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) sector. The company focuses on designing and producing high-performance electric motorcycles, aiming to combine ...
How the Company Makes Money
LiveWire primarily makes money by selling electric motorcycles to customers. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of new electric motorcycles (the core revenue stream), typically delivered through a network of retail locations/dealers and direct-to...
LiveWire Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed picture: solid retail momentum (North America +14%, global +8), inventory normalization (-22% dealer inventory) and a clear strategic plan with cost-savings targets, product reintroductions (Sportster, Sprint) and P&A growth opportunities provide a constructive medium-term outlook. However, near-term financials are challenged — consolidated revenue and operating income declined sharply, EPS fell materially, margins were compressed by tariffs and mix, operating expenses rose, and operating cash flow deteriorated. The strategy and early operational improvements are encouraging, but significant near-term headwinds and execution risks remain.Positive Updates
Strong Retail Performance in North America and Global Growth
North American retail sales of new motorcycles increased 14% year-over-year (U.S. +16%, Canada -8) with ~24,000 motorcycles sold in Q1; global retail sales of new motorcycles grew 8% year-over-year with ~34,000 motorcycles retailed (10,000 outside North America).
Negative Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Operating Income Declines
Consolidated revenue fell 12% year-over-year in Q1; consolidated operating income dropped to $23 million from $160 million in Q1 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Retail Performance in North America and Global Growth
North American retail sales of new motorcycles increased 14% year-over-year (U.S. +16%, Canada -8) with ~24,000 motorcycles sold in Q1; global retail sales of new motorcycles grew 8% year-over-year with ~34,000 motorcycles retailed (10,000 outside North America).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Harley‑Davidson reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance with HDMC retail units and wholesale units each expected at 130,000–135,000 and retail/wholesale largely one‑to‑one; it forecasts incremental tariff costs of $75–$90 million for 2026 (Q1 tariffs were $45M), HDMC operating income of +$10M to -$40M, HDFS operating income of $45–$60M, and a LiveWire operating loss of $70–$80M. Management reiterated a path to $350M+ EBITDA in 2027 driven by at least $150M of annual run‑rate cost saves (impacting 2027+), and set medium‑term targets of mid‑single‑digit retail unit growth, mid‑single‑digit P&A and A&L growth, gross margins approaching ~30%, operating expenses <20% of sales (vs 25% in 2025), and a 10%–12% EBITDA margin. Q1 results that framed the guidance included consolidated revenue down 12%, consolidated operating income $23M (Q1 EPS $0.22 vs $1.07 prior year), HDMC revenue $1.1B (-2%) with motorcycles $836M, HDMC gross profit 25.3% (vs 29.1%), HDFS revenue $112M (-54%) with operating income $22M, LiveWire revenue +87% with an $18M operating loss, global retail sales +8% (~34,000 units: North America +14%/~24,000; ex‑NA -4%/~10,000), wholesale shipments ~37,300 (-3%), dealer inventory down 22% YoY and ~2/3 of NA inventory current model year, net cash used in operations $228M (cash $1.8B), retail originations $671M (+14%), and gross financing receivables $2.5B (retail $1.3B; commercial $1.2B).LiveWire Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 28.04M | 25.67M | 26.63M | 38.02M | 46.83M | 35.81M |
| Gross Profit | -2.80M | -4.43M | -12.78M | -5.77M | 2.90M | -2.57M |
| EBITDA | -63.04M | -64.53M | -83.84M | -103.64M | -74.09M | -63.14M |
| Net Income | -73.97M | -75.11M | -93.92M | -109.55M | -78.94M | -68.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 127.62M | 146.41M | 147.96M | 266.15M | 351.81M | 61.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 67.50M | 82.78M | 64.44M | 167.90M | 265.24M | 2.67M |
| Total Debt | 74.79M | 75.97M | 799.00K | 1.94M | 3.23M | 9.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 99.31M | 100.38M | 32.84M | 60.28M | 45.01M | 42.03M |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.32M | 46.03M | 115.11M | 205.86M | 306.80M | 19.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -52.94M | -57.36M | -101.93M | -96.92M | -103.76M | -84.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -49.05M | -53.55M | -93.86M | -83.46M | -89.68M | -74.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.89M | -3.81M | -8.07M | -13.46M | -14.08M | -9.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 74.38M | 75.73M | -1.44M | -412.00K | 366.33M | 84.76M |
LiveWire Group Technical Analysis
Negative
4.31
Price Trends
1.63
Negative
2.07
Negative
3.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.11
Positive
39.81
Neutral
30.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LVWR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.60, above the 50-day MA of 1.63, and above the 200-day MA of 3.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LVWR.
LiveWire Group Risk Analysis
LiveWire Group disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LiveWire Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LiveWire Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
50 Neutral | $101.90M | -4.32 | -10.26% | ― | 32.60% | 45.00% | |
50 Neutral | $864.91M | -1.97 | 39.53% | ― | -43.74% | 58.87% | |
47 Neutral | $28.32M | -1.70 | 1245.96% | ― | 360.39% | 28.58% | |
45 Neutral | $96.26M | -0.38 | 2910.56% | ― | -14.19% | 84.05% | |
44 Neutral | $284.62M | -4.68 | -105.53% | ― | 14.94% | 17.68% | |
44 Neutral | $34.75M | -0.38 | -204.85% | ― | 320.74% | 94.41% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LVWR
LiveWire Group
1.39
-1.17
-45.70%
WKHS
Workhorse Group
3.19
-7.25
-69.44%
EVTV
Envirotech Vehicles
2.19
0.37
20.00%
NIU
Niu Technologies
2.40
-1.65
-40.74%
FFAI
Faraday Future Intelligent Electric
0.32
-0.90
-74.02%
LOT
Lotus Technology
1.35
-0.64
-32.16%
LiveWire Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
LiveWire Deepens EV Partnerships and Confirms Governance Stability
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 18, 2026, LiveWire acquired substantially all assets of Dust Motorcycles related to electric motorcycles, dirt bikes and powertrain technology for a mix of cash and stock, plus potential earn-outs, while assuming certain specified liabiliti...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
LiveWire Acquires Dust Moto to Expand Electric Off-Road
Positive
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, LiveWire Group, Inc. announced it had acquired the assets of Dust Moto, a U.S. startup focused on affordable, high-performance electric dirt bikes, in a move that marks LiveWire’s first acquisition and a strategic push into ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.