LiveWire Group (LVWR)
NYSE:LVWR
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LiveWire Group
(NYSE:LVWR)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-53.60% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/14/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (persistent losses, negative gross profit, and ongoing cash burn) and higher 2025 balance-sheet risk from increased debt. Technicals show only a modest near-term bounce within a weak longer-term trend, while valuation is limited by loss-making fundamentals and no dividend support. Earnings-call guidance remains cautious with ongoing LiveWire losses and tariff headwinds, partially offset by incremental operational improvements and cost-savings plans.
Positive Factors
Focused electric motorcycle business model
LiveWire’s pure-play electric motorcycle focus and integrated product, parts and service revenue streams align with structural EV adoption trends. A clear niche brand and combined retail/dealer distribution provide a durable platform for scaling unit economics and aftermarket revenues if execution improves.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative gross profit and cash burn
Chronic negative gross profit and sustained operating/free cash flow deficits signal the business is not yet self-funding. Even with recent improvement, ongoing cash burn erodes flexibility, increases refinancing needs, and means the company must materially improve unit margins or secure external capital to survive long term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Focused electric motorcycle business model
LiveWire’s pure-play electric motorcycle focus and integrated product, parts and service revenue streams align with structural EV adoption trends. A clear niche brand and combined retail/dealer distribution provide a durable platform for scaling unit economics and aftermarket revenues if execution improves.
Read all positive factors
LiveWire Group (LVWR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$364.48M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)60.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.43
Revenue Growth-3.61%
EPS Growth20.23%
CountryUS
Employees182
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding204,761,830
10 Day Avg. Volume76,426
30 Day Avg. Volume60,942
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)19.56
Price to Sales (P/S)35.08
P/FCF Ratio-15.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-80.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.47
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.98M
LiveWire Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LiveWire Group (LVWR) is an innovative electric motorcycle manufacturer that operates within the rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) sector. The company focuses on designing and producing high-performance electric motorcycles, aiming to combine ...
How the Company Makes Money
LiveWire primarily makes money by selling electric motorcycles to customers. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of new electric motorcycles (the core revenue stream), typically delivered through a network of retail locations/dealers and direct-to...
LiveWire Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across regions, showing where LiveWire’s products are gaining traction and where sales are lagging. Reveals exposure to market concentration, local EV incentives, dealer and charging network strength, and currency or regulatory risks that could affect growth prospects.
Breaks down revenue across regions, showing where LiveWire’s products are gaining traction and where sales are lagging. Reveals exposure to market concentration, local EV incentives, dealer and charging network strength, and currency or regulatory risks that could affect growth prospects.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLiveWire Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presents a mixed but cautious picture: management has begun delivering operational fixes (notably dealer inventory reduction above targets, HDFS full-year earnings strength, improved liquidity, LiveWire progress, and a $150M+ cost-savings plan) and outlines a clear reset strategy. However, material near-term financial deterioration remains — including a steep Q4 revenue decline (-28%), larger consolidated operating loss, HDMC margin degradation (~380 bps), shipment and retail volume declines, increasing tariff headwinds, and Q4 HDFS discrete costs — with 2026 guidance indicating continued margin pressure. Given the substantial negative near-term financial trends and guidance offsetting the operational progress, the overall tone is cautious-to-negative despite constructive strategic actions.Positive Updates
Dealer Inventory Reduction Exceeded Target
Global dealer inventory declined 17% year-over-year (exceeding the 10% target); North America dealer inventory down 16% and international dealer inventory down 20%, improving dealer starting positions for 2026.
Negative Updates
Sharp Q4 Revenue and Profit Declines
Consolidated Q4 revenue fell 28% year-over-year (HDMC down 10%, HDFS down 59%), and consolidated Q4 operating loss widened to $361 million compared to a $193 million loss in the prior year period.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Dealer Inventory Reduction Exceeded Target
Global dealer inventory declined 17% year-over-year (exceeding the 10% target); North America dealer inventory down 16% and international dealer inventory down 20%, improving dealer starting positions for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Harley‑Davidson guided 2026 toward a one‑for‑one relationship between retail and wholesale with both retail and wholesale unit expectations of 130,000–135,000, while production is expected to run below wholesale (creating near‑term operating deleverage); management projects HDMC operating income of +$10M to −$40M, HDFS operating income of $45M–$60M under its new capital‑light model (with management saying normalization will take ~2.5–3 years), LiveWire operating loss of $70M–$80M, and incremental tariff headwinds of $75M–$105M versus the 2024 baseline; they also confirmed dealer inventory is generally at appropriate total levels, expect Q1 wholesale slightly down with a pickup into early Q2 and back‑loaded shipments later in the year, plan at least $150M of annual run‑rate savings by 2027 (with some savings beginning in H2 2026), and will take a measured approach to share repurchases while finalizing the May strategic plan.LiveWire Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
14
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.67M | 26.63M | 38.02M | 46.83M | 35.81M |
| Gross Profit | -4.43M | -12.78M | -5.77M | 2.90M | -2.57M |
| EBITDA | -64.53M | -83.84M | -103.64M | -74.09M | -63.14M |
| Net Income | -75.11M | -93.92M | -109.55M | -78.94M | -68.29M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 146.41M | 147.96M | 266.15M | 351.81M | 61.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 82.78M | 64.44M | 167.90M | 265.24M | 2.67M |
| Total Debt | 75.97M | 799.00K | 1.94M | 3.23M | 9.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 100.38M | 32.84M | 60.28M | 45.01M | 42.03M |
| Stockholders Equity | 46.03M | 115.11M | 205.86M | 306.80M | 19.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -57.36M | -101.93M | -96.92M | -103.76M | -84.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -53.55M | -93.86M | -83.46M | -89.68M | -74.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.81M | -8.07M | -13.46M | -14.08M | -9.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 75.73M | -1.44M | -412.00K | 366.33M | 84.76M |
LiveWire Group Technical Analysis
Positive
4.31
Price Trends
1.80
Positive
2.79
Negative
3.60
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
62.56
Neutral
77.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LVWR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.60, above the 50-day MA of 1.80, and above the 200-day MA of 3.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LVWR.
LiveWire Group Risk Analysis
LiveWire Group disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LiveWire Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LiveWire Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $240.94M | -44.16 | -4.13% | ― | 31.19% | 79.56% | |
48 Neutral | $23.02M | -0.15 | -294.40% | ― | 217.58% | -127.04% | |
48 Neutral | $832.87M | -1.97 | 39.46% | ― | -43.74% | 58.87% | |
46 Neutral | $124.31M | -1.51 | -1652.31% | ― | -0.56% | 93.29% | |
45 Neutral | $364.48M | -11.99 | -105.53% | ― | -3.61% | 20.23% | |
42 Neutral | $35.40M | -0.59 | -198.95% | ― | 220.58% | 89.10% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LVWR
LiveWire Group
1.78
0.45
33.83%
WKHS
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3.25
-9.95
-75.38%
EVTV
Envirotech Vehicles
1.78
-0.91
-33.78%
NIU
Niu Technologies
3.08
-0.53
-14.68%
FFAI
Faraday Future Intelligent Electric
0.41
-0.71
-63.48%
LOT
Lotus Technology
1.30
-0.64
-32.99%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.