Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.44B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 391.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 7.57%
• EPS Growth: 34.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 0.96
• Shares Outstanding: 31,565,453
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 406,690
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 391,657
• PEG Ratio: 42.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.16
• 1Y Price Target: $49.60
• Price Target Upside: 8.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $50.00 ▲(9.79%Upside)

Blue Bird's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are key drivers of its stock score. The bullish technical indicators support a positive outlook, though overbought signals suggest caution. Valuation is reasonable, but the lack of a dividend yield is a minor downside.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

FQ2 saw record revenue of $359mn, 1% ahead of expectations and record EBITDA of $49.2mn, 4% ahead of consensus.

Market Expansion

The Buy rating is reiterated due to the potential expansion into the class 5/6 truck market which is seen as a growth opportunity beyond the traditional school bus market.

Operational Execution

Blue Bird beat and maintained outlook, with revamped operations continuing to drive outperformance.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Concerns

The 145% tariffs on China severely impact the firm’s EV kits from Accelera, with the potential to add 10% to the price of an EV bus.

Subsidy Uncertainty

Increased uncertainty around future EV program funding.

Valuation Concerns

Concerns around funding for EV school buses continue to weigh on the stock, with Blue Bird trading at a historically low valuation.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a leading manufacturer of school buses in North America, known for its innovation and commitment to safety and durability. Founded in 1927, the company has established itself as a staple in the transportation industry, offering a range of school bus products, including Type A, C, and D buses. Blue Bird also provides comprehensive aftermarket services, including parts and maintenance, to ensure the longevity and efficiency of its vehicles.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its school buses to school districts, private operators, and bus dealers across North America. The company's key revenue streams include the manufacturing and sale of new buses, particularly its Type C and Type D models, which are the most popular among large districts due to their capacity and efficiency. In addition to bus sales, Blue Bird earns income from its aftermarket services, which include spare parts, maintenance, and repair services. This segment not only provides a steady revenue stream but also strengthens customer loyalty by extending the life and performance of its buses. Strategic partnerships with engine and component manufacturers, as well as financing partnerships that facilitate bus purchases for customers, also play a crucial role in driving sales and enhancing market penetration.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Bird shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability. The balance sheet indicates progress in reducing leverage but still relies heavily on liabilities. Cash flow is robust, though there is volatility in investment activities.

Income Statement

Blue Bird has demonstrated a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a significant increase in total revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved over the years, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and profitability. However, the EBIT margin has experienced fluctuations, suggesting potential volatility in operating expenses.

Balance Sheet

The company has shown improvement in its debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting a more balanced capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) has increased significantly, indicating better utilization of equity investments. However, the equity ratio remains low, highlighting a higher reliance on liabilities, which could pose financial risks.

Cash Flow

Blue Bird's cash flow performance is strong, with consistent free cash flow generation and a positive free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, fluctuations in investing and financing cash flows indicate potential volatility in investment activities.

Breakdown	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M	879.22M
Gross Profit	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M	96.20M
EBITDA	152.34M	60.92M	-23.23M	21.95M	37.14M
Net Income	105.55M	23.81M	-41.60M	-787.00K	8.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M	317.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M	44.51M
Total Debt	95.97M	131.91M	172.33M	215.29M	181.26M
Total Liabilities	387.73M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M	370.64M
Stockholders Equity	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M	-53.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M	-15.51M
Operating Cash Flow	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M	3.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M	-18.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M	-11.11M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 45.54
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.12, above the 50-day MA of 41.97, and above the 200-day MA of 39.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLBD	72 Outperform	$1.44B	14.07	73.02%	―	7.57%	34.82%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$17.10B	10.79	-8.01%	2.94%	1.62%	-25.73%
FFAI	54 Neutral	$267.49M	―	-186.28%	―	8.52%	98.75%
LVWR	52 Neutral	$1.03B	―	-63.74%	―	-30.76%	20.33%
WKHS	44 Neutral	$19.42M	―	-188.79%	―	-53.55%	65.29%
EVTV	44 Neutral	$4.93M	―	-132.63%	―	-47.62%	8.34%
CENN	41 Neutral	$30.74M	―	-32.49%	―	36.58%	-62.75%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird Reports Record Q2 Sales and Income

On May 7, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 second quarter results, reporting record net sales of $359 million and a GAAP net income of $26 million. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 guidance, highlighting a strong market demand with a backlog of approximately 4,900 units and a significant push in electric-powered buses, with 265 units delivered in the quarter. The results underscore Blue Bird’s robust operational performance and its leadership in the alternative-powered school bus market.