Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)
NASDAQ:BLBD
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Blue Bird
(NASDAQ:BLBD)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$67.00
▲(14.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
BLBD scores well on financial performance and the latest earnings call, reflecting a credible profitability/FCF turnaround with raised EBITDA guidance and strong backlog. Technicals are supportive with price above major averages, while valuation is fair but not boosted by a dividend.
Positive Factors
Profitability Turnaround & Margin Expansion
Multi-year margin expansion and return to consistent profitability indicate durable improvements in pricing, mix, and cost control. Sustained ~8.6% net margin at larger revenue scales supports reinvestment, debt paydown, and continued funding of strategic initiatives over coming years.
Negative Factors
Tariff & Sourcing Volatility
Material tariff differentials and shifting country-designations create persistent sourcing complexity and per-unit cost uncertainty. Over time, tariffs can erode margins if pass-through is limited and increase procurement effort and capex to reconfigure supply chains, pressuring sustainable profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Turnaround & Margin Expansion
Multi-year margin expansion and return to consistent profitability indicate durable improvements in pricing, mix, and cost control. Sustained ~8.6% net margin at larger revenue scales supports reinvestment, debt paydown, and continued funding of strategic initiatives over coming years.
Read all positive factors
Blue Bird (BLBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.85B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)338.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth9.87%
EPS Growth22.67%
CountryUS
Employees1,945
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.00
Shares Outstanding31,591,902
10 Day Avg. Volume249,902
30 Day Avg. Volume338,515
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.64
Price to Book (P/B)7.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio12.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.00Price Target Upside12.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.51B
Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty b...
How the Company Makes Money
Blue Bird makes money primarily by selling new school buses, generating revenue when customers purchase buses through its dealer network and fleet/direct channels. A second, recurring revenue stream comes from aftermarket parts and related support...
Blue Bird Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Examines profit after direct costs across segments, indicating which areas are most lucrative and efficient in cost management.
Examines profit after direct costs across segments, indicating which areas are most lucrative and efficient in cost management.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBlue Bird Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a string of record quarterly achievements — revenue (+6% YoY), record adjusted EBITDA ($50.1M, 15% margin), record free cash flow ($31M), strong liquidity ($385M), and a very large order intake (+45%) and backlog (3,400 units, ~25% EV). Management raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to about $225M (15%) and reiterated medium- and long-term growth targets, while advancing a factory-of-the-future automation roadmap and proceeding with a DOE-supported new plant. Key risks discussed were tariff volatility, supplier/sourcing complexity, increased labor and engineering costs, and some EV delivery timing/infrastructure delays that push units into FY2027. Overall, the positives — strong execution, cash generation, backlog, and strategic positioning in alt-power/EVs — materially outweigh the operational and policy headwinds described.Positive Updates
Beat Guidance Across All Metrics (13th Consecutive Quarter)
Blue Bird beat guidance on every metric for Q1, marking the thirteenth consecutive quarter of beating guidance and signaling consistent execution by management.
Negative Updates
Tariff Volatility and Pricing Uncertainty
Administration tariff policy creates volatility: EV-related tariffs are described as being above $10,000 per EV unit while internal combustion tariffs are below $5,000 per bus. Tariff uncertainty complicates sourcing and could pressure margins despite disciplined pass-through efforts; company is aiming for tariff neutrality but risks remain.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Beat Guidance Across All Metrics (13th Consecutive Quarter)
Blue Bird beat guidance on every metric for Q1, marking the thirteenth consecutive quarter of beating guidance and signaling consistent execution by management.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Blue Bird raised and reconfirmed aggressive fiscal and multi‑year targets: for FY2026 it guides revenue $1.45–$1.55 billion (≈$1.5B) and raised adjusted EBITDA to $225M (range $215–$235M), implying roughly a 15% margin, with adjusted free cash flow of $40–$60M (≈50% of EBITDA) and unit volumes tracking to ~9,500; Q2 is expected to resemble Q1 and management targets 15–16% adjusted EBITDA in the second half. It also guided to ~800 EV unit sales in FY26 (long‑term 750–1,000 p.a.), a Q1 backlog of 3,400 units (~25% EV, ~855 EVs noted), medium‑term goals of ~10,000 units (including 500 strip chassis) and ~ $1.6B revenue at a 15% margin, and long‑term targets of $1.8–$2.0B revenue, ~12,500 units (1,000–1,500 strip chassis) and $280–$320M EBITDA (≈15.5–16%+) beginning in 2029+, while allocating ~$75M extraordinary FY26 CapEx for the new plant (DOE‑funded portion), maintaining record liquidity (~$385M), and continuing a $100M share‑buyback program (≈$95M remaining).Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.50B | 1.48B | 1.35B | 1.13B | 800.64M | 684.00M |
| Gross Profit | 314.43M | 303.51M | 256.16M | 138.85M | 36.55M | 72.14M |
| EBITDA | 194.40M | 192.35M | 152.34M | 59.80M | -24.33M | 21.15M |
| Net Income | 129.75M | 127.72M | 105.55M | 23.81M | -45.76M | -289.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 642.34M | 625.25M | 524.89M | 417.77M | 366.13M | 356.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 241.74M | 229.31M | 127.69M | 78.99M | 10.48M | 11.71M |
| Total Debt | 89.15M | 90.32M | 95.97M | 131.91M | 174.48M | 220.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 370.97M | 369.84M | 365.33M | 377.77M | 364.74M | 388.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 271.37M | 255.41M | 159.56M | 40.00M | 1.38M | -32.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 162.64M | 153.34M | 95.85M | 111.41M | -30.89M | -66.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 186.38M | 176.21M | 111.11M | 119.93M | -24.44M | -54.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -24.43M | -23.87M | -15.81M | -8.52M | -6.45M | -11.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -56.33M | -50.72M | -46.60M | -42.90M | 29.66M | 32.75M |
Blue Bird Technical Analysis
Positive
58.54
Price Trends
55.92
Positive
53.13
Positive
52.55
Positive
Market Momentum
0.63
Negative
57.95
Neutral
79.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.51, above the 50-day MA of 55.92, and above the 200-day MA of 52.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.
Blue Bird Risk Analysis
Blue Bird disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Bird reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blue Bird Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.85B | 13.11 | 55.27% | ― | 9.87% | 22.67% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $30.78B | 9.64 | 4.09% | 4.19% | 0.32% | -25.51% | |
51 Neutral | $65.77B | -6.93 | 5.13% | 0.69% | -1.29% | -49.96% | |
48 Neutral | $45.96B | -6.38 | -18.91% | 5.64% | 3.75% | 33.37% | |
47 Neutral | $2.89B | -1.22 | -133.09% | ― | 45.86% | 22.13% | |
47 Neutral | $18.23B | -7.49 | -66.53% | ― | 28.21% | 44.43% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BLBD
Blue Bird
58.54
24.63
72.63%
F
Ford Motor
11.52
2.48
27.50%
GM
General Motors
72.76
27.48
60.69%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
23.49
-3.57
-13.18%
LCID
Lucid Group
8.83
-16.67
-65.37%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
14.69
2.92
24.81%
Blue Bird Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Blue Bird Completes Micro Bird Acquisition, Expands Bus Portfolio
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Blue Bird completed the roughly $200 million acquisition of Girardin Group’s 50% stake in their Micro Bird joint venture, using a mix of cash and stock. The deal gives Blue Bird full ownership of Micro Bird’s U.S. and...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Blue Bird Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
At its March 11, 2026 annual meeting, Blue Bird stockholders approved an amended and restated 2015 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan, effective November 21, 2025, raising the share pool for awards from 5.2 million to 6.1 million, increasing allowable ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Blue Bird to Acquire Full Ownership of Micro Bird
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On Feb. 15, 2026, Blue Bird agreed to acquire Girardin Group’s 50% stake in their Micro Bird joint venture for approximately $200 million, paying 30% in cash and 70% in equity, which will give Blue Bird full ownership of the business. The de...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Blue Bird Raises 2026 Outlook After Strong Q1 Results
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Blue Bird reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter results for the period ended December 27, 2025, posting net sales of $333.1 million, up 6.1% year over year, and GAAP net income of $30.8 million, with diluted EPS of $0.94. The com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.