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Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)
NASDAQ:BLBD

Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

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Blue Bird

(NASDAQ:BLBD)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(10.01%Upside)
Blue Bird's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are key drivers of its stock score. The bullish technical indicators support a positive outlook, though overbought signals suggest caution. Valuation is reasonable, but the lack of a dividend yield is a minor downside.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
A healthy unit backlog is supporting the long-term outlook for the company.
Market Expansion
The Buy rating is reiterated due to the potential expansion into the class 5/6 truck market which is seen as a growth opportunity beyond the traditional school bus market.
Operational Performance
Blue Bird beat and maintained outlook as revamped operations drive outperformance.
Negative Factors
Government Funding
Heightened uncertainty over federal subsidies is a significant concern affecting the company's performance.
Tariffs Impact
The 145% tariffs on China severely impact the firm’s EV kits from Accelera, with the potential to add 10% to the price of an EV bus.
Valuation Concerns
Concerns around funding for EV school buses continue to weigh on the stock, with Blue Bird trading at a historically low valuation.

Blue Bird (BLBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a leading manufacturer of school buses in North America, known for its innovation and commitment to safety and durability. Founded in 1927, the company has established itself as a staple in the transportation industry, offering a range of school bus products, including Type A, C, and D buses. Blue Bird also provides comprehensive aftermarket services, including parts and maintenance, to ensure the longevity and efficiency of its vehicles.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlue Bird Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its school buses to school districts, private operators, and bus dealers across North America. The company's key revenue streams include the manufacturing and sale of new buses, particularly its Type C and Type D models, which are the most popular among large districts due to their capacity and efficiency. In addition to bus sales, Blue Bird earns income from its aftermarket services, which include spare parts, maintenance, and repair services. This segment not only provides a steady revenue stream but also strengthens customer loyalty by extending the life and performance of its buses. Strategic partnerships with engine and component manufacturers, as well as financing partnerships that facilitate bus purchases for customers, also play a crucial role in driving sales and enhancing market penetration.

Blue Bird Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 20.43%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Blue Bird reported a record-breaking quarter in terms of revenue and adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong demand and effective cost management. The company maintained its leadership in alternative power vehicles and debuted a promising new commercial chassis. However, significant tariff impacts pose challenges, particularly for EV production, potentially delaying some builds. Despite these challenges, Blue Bird's strong backlog and strategic pricing actions position it well for continued stability.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Profit
Blue Bird achieved record quarterly revenue of $359 million and a record adjusted EBITDA of $49 million, marking a 6.5% improvement over the previous year's second quarter.
Strong Backlog and Demand
The company ended the quarter with nearly 5,000 units in backlog, representing over six months of production, totaling $770 million in revenue.
Lead Position in Alternative Power Vehicles
Blue Bird maintained its leadership in the alternative power vehicles segment with a 57% mix of unit sales, significantly higher than competitors.
Commercial Chassis Debut
Blue Bird debuted its commercial chassis at the Work Truck Show, receiving overwhelming positive feedback, with a planned launch in 2026.
Negative Updates
Impact of Tariffs on EV Production
New tariffs, particularly a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, are affecting Blue Bird's EV kit costs, potentially leading to a 10% price increase on EV buses.
Decrease in Adjusted Free Cash Flow
Adjusted free cash flow decreased by $35 million compared to the previous year, mainly due to increased tax expenses.
Potential Delay in EV Production
Due to tariff impacts, Blue Bird may intentionally push some EV builds to fiscal 2026, affecting the planned production schedule.
Company Guidance
In the Blue Bird fiscal 2025 second quarter earnings call, the company reported record quarterly revenue and profit, with revenue reaching $359 million and adjusted EBITDA at $49 million, representing a 14% margin. The company maintained its full-year guidance despite challenges such as tariff impacts from the current administration's policies. Blue Bird sold 2,295 buses, including 265 electric vehicles (EVs), which contributed to its strong order intake. The firm's backlog included 4,900 buses, translating to $770 million in revenue. Average selling prices for buses increased by $4,000 per unit over the previous year, driven by higher bus and parts margins, although adjusted free cash flow decreased by $35 million year-over-year, attributed to increased tax expenses. The company also highlighted its first half fiscal year results, including a record revenue of $673 million and adjusted EBITDA of $95 million. Despite the challenges posed by new tariffs, particularly those affecting EVs, Blue Bird's strategic pricing actions and robust demand have positioned it well to achieve its fiscal 2025 targets.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Blue Bird shows strong financial health with robust revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet is progressing with reduced leverage but still heavily reliant on liabilities. Cash flows are strong, though investment activities show volatility.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Blue Bird has demonstrated a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a significant increase in total revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved over the years, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and profitability. However, the EBIT margin has experienced fluctuations, suggesting potential volatility in operating expenses.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company has shown improvement in its debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting a more balanced capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) has increased significantly, indicating better utilization of equity investments. However, the equity ratio remains low, highlighting a higher reliance on liabilities, which could pose financial risks.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Blue Bird's cash flow performance is strong, with consistent free cash flow generation and a positive free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, fluctuations in investing and financing cash flows indicate potential volatility in investment activities.
BreakdownTTMSep 2024Sep 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.36B1.35B1.13B800.64M684.00M879.22M
Gross Profit260.13M256.16M138.85M36.55M72.14M96.20M
EBITDA148.75M152.34M60.92M-23.23M21.95M37.14M
Net Income108.14M105.55M23.81M-41.60M-787.00K8.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets543.70M524.89M417.77M366.13M356.02M317.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments130.75M127.69M78.99M10.48M11.71M44.51M
Total Debt93.04M95.97M131.91M172.33M215.29M181.26M
Total Liabilities126.66M387.73M377.77M364.74M388.68M370.64M
Stockholders Equity190.39M159.56M40.00M1.38M-32.66M-53.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow96.31M95.85M111.41M-30.89M-66.45M-15.51M
Operating Cash Flow110.52M111.11M119.93M-24.44M-54.24M3.46M
Investing Cash Flow-24.29M-15.81M-8.52M-6.45M-11.31M-18.80M
Financing Cash Flow-48.58M-46.60M-42.90M29.66M32.75M-11.11M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price45.45
Price Trends
50DMA
39.69
Positive
100DMA
37.03
Positive
200DMA
39.67
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.35
Negative
RSI
77.98
Negative
STOCH
87.36
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.03, above the 50-day MA of 39.69, and above the 200-day MA of 39.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Risk Analysis

Blue Bird disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Bird reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$1.40B13.6573.02%7.57%34.82%
62
Neutral
$16.65B11.30-7.38%3.01%1.59%-23.30%
55
Neutral
$166.93M-186.28%8.52%98.75%
48
Neutral
$942.51M-63.74%-30.76%20.33%
46
Neutral
$11.65M-188.79%-53.55%65.29%
44
Neutral
$4.83M-132.63%-47.62%8.34%
41
Neutral
$32.15M-32.49%36.58%-62.75%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BLBD
Blue Bird
45.45
-1.10
-2.36%
WKHS
Workhorse Group
1.34
-15.41
-92.00%
CENN
Cenntro Electric Group
0.70
-0.99
-58.58%
EVTV
Envirotech Vehicles
0.18
-1.56
-89.66%
FFAI
Faraday Future Intelligent Electric
1.63
-14.37
-89.81%
LVWR
LiveWire Group
4.40
-2.82
-39.06%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Blue Bird Reports Record Q2 Sales and Income
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 second quarter results, reporting record net sales of $359 million and a GAAP net income of $26 million. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 guidance, highlighting a strong market demand with a backlog of approximately 4,900 units and a significant push in electric-powered buses, with 265 units delivered in the quarter. The results underscore Blue Bird’s robust operational performance and its leadership in the alternative-powered school bus market.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025