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Blue Bird
(NASDAQ:BLBD)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$86.00
▲(12.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
Blue Bird's strong financial performance, highlighted by robust profitability, healthy balance sheet, and strong cash flow, is the primary driver of the score. Positive technicals and attractive valuation further support the bullish case. The highly optimistic earnings call, with raised guidance and strategic achievements, adds confidence. While short-term consolidation and moderate growth are noted, the overall outlook remains favorable.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, robust FCF and high cash conversion provide durable financial flexibility. Strong free cash flow funds buybacks, fund extraordinary CapEx for the new plant, supports debt reduction and liquidity buffers, and reduces refinancing risk for this cyclical manufacturer over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Sharp trailing revenue contraction
A large TTM revenue decline raises durable demand and timing uncertainty: lower shipment volumes erode scale economics and reduce visibility into parts recurring revenue growth. Even with margin recovery, sustained top-line weakness can constrain long-term operating leverage and strategic investment pacing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, robust FCF and high cash conversion provide durable financial flexibility. Strong free cash flow funds buybacks, fund extraordinary CapEx for the new plant, supports debt reduction and liquidity buffers, and reduces refinancing risk for this cyclical manufacturer over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
Blue Bird Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be challenges.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBlue Bird (BLBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)427.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth10.09%
EPS Growth25.05%
CountryUS
Employees2,012
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.20
Shares Outstanding31,646,590
10 Day Avg. Volume421,891
30 Day Avg. Volume427,639
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.64
Price to Book (P/B)7.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio12.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$86.83Price Target Upside13.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.75B
Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blue Bird Corporation specializes in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of school buses and related components. The company serves customers across the United States, Canada, and international markets, structured into two primar...
How the Company Makes Money
Blue Bird primarily makes money by selling completed school buses and bus body/chassis configurations to customers (typically school districts and private fleet operators) through its dealer/distributor channel. Revenue is largely driven by unit v...
Blue Bird Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive: management reported record Q2 adjusted EBITDA, record free cash flow and liquidity, raised full-year and long-term outlooks, closed a strategic MicroBird acquisition, and secured an $80 million DOE MES grant for a new plant. Challenges discussed were modest and largely manageable in the near term—slight YoY revenue/unit shortfalls driven by production days, lower Q2 EV deliveries (albeit with a strong EV backlog), tariff/policy volatility, near-term cost pressures, and production capacity constraints until the new plant comes online. Overall, the positives (records, upgraded guidance, M&A, grant funding and strong cash generation) significantly outweigh the manageable lowlights.Positive Updates
Consistent Outperformance vs. Guidance
Beat guidance on all metrics for the 14th consecutive quarter; Q2 and first-half results exceeded prior guidance across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.
Negative Updates
Slight Revenue and Unit Shortfall vs. Prior Year
Consolidated Q2 revenue was $353 million, about $6 million (≈1.7%) below prior year; unit sales for the first half were 4,283, down 142 units YoY—impacted in part by fewer production days this quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Outperformance vs. Guidance
Beat guidance on all metrics for the 14th consecutive quarter; Q2 and first-half results exceeded prior guidance across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Blue Bird raised and refined its fiscal 2026 guidance: pre-acquisition it increased revenue to $1.515–$1.565 billion and adj. EBITDA to $230 million (range $220–$240M) with an EV sales outlook of ~900 units for the year; following the April 1 MicroBird consolidation the company now guides consolidated revenue to $1.725–$1.775 billion (Q3 $500M; Q4 $560M) and adj. EBITDA to $245M (range $235–$255M) — roughly a 14% full-year margin — with adjusted free cash flow targeted at $100–$125M (about 50% of EBITDA after an extraordinary $25M CapEx); other key metrics noted on the call include a ~3,600‑unit backlog (including ~900+ EVs/912 cited), Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $50.8M and record Q2 free cash flow of $40M, record liquidity of $418M (cash $276M), $5M of debt reduction year‑over‑year, a $100M buyback program ($5M executed, $90M remaining), reconfirmed $80M DOE MES grant toward a >$300M new plant (Type C capacity 9,000 buses/yr, production start CYQ4‑2028), and updated medium‑ and long‑term targets (mid‑term adj. EBITDA ~ $275M; long‑term revenue ~ $2.5B and adj. EBITDA $325–$375M+).Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
80
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.35B | 1.13B | 800.64M | 684.00M |
| Gross Profit | 314.22M | 303.51M | 256.16M | 138.85M | 36.55M | 72.14M |
| EBITDA | 199.14M | 192.35M | 152.34M | 59.80M | -24.33M | 21.15M |
| Net Income | 133.01M | 127.72M | 105.55M | 23.81M | -45.76M | -289.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 689.36M | 625.25M | 524.89M | 417.77M | 366.13M | 356.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 275.89M | 229.31M | 127.69M | 78.99M | 10.48M | 11.71M |
| Total Debt | 87.98M | 90.32M | 95.97M | 131.91M | 174.48M | 220.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 391.44M | 369.84M | 365.33M | 377.77M | 364.74M | 388.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 297.93M | 255.41M | 159.56M | 40.00M | 1.38M | -32.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 183.80M | 153.34M | 95.85M | 111.41M | -30.89M | -66.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 206.37M | 176.21M | 111.11M | 119.93M | -24.44M | -54.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.27M | -23.87M | -15.81M | -8.52M | -6.45M | -11.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -37.97M | -50.72M | -46.60M | -42.90M | 29.66M | 32.75M |
Blue Bird Technical Analysis
Negative
76.20
Price Trends
74.10
Negative
67.44
Positive
60.08
Positive
Market Momentum
1.31
Positive
48.24
Neutral
37.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 76.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.54, above the 50-day MA of 74.10, and above the 200-day MA of 60.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLBD.
Blue Bird Risk Analysis
Blue Bird disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Bird reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blue Bird Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.34B | 17.59 | 50.84% | ― | 10.09% | 25.05% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $38.38B | -15.29 | -3.53% | 4.73% | 1.63% | -158.78% | |
57 Neutral | $59.61B | -9.72 | -18.90% | 4.18% | 1.47% | -315.47% | |
55 Neutral | $79.23B | 45.15 | 3.04% | 0.80% | -1.11% | -67.59% | |
48 Neutral | $3.08B | -0.62 | -193.02% | ― | 61.03% | -5.36% | |
46 Neutral | $24.16B | -5.72 | -69.98% | ― | 10.43% | 21.58% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BLBD
Blue Bird
72.32
27.53
61.46%
F
Ford Motor
15.28
4.73
44.85%
GM
General Motors
89.40
36.54
69.14%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
30.68
0.08
0.26%
LCID
Lucid Group
7.96
-16.64
-67.64%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
16.33
3.46
26.88%
Blue Bird Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Blue Bird Transfers Pension Obligations via Annuity Purchase
Neutral
May 18, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Blue Bird Body Company, as sponsor of its frozen defined benefit pension plan, agreed to purchase group annuity contracts from Pacific Life to transfer future benefit obligations and administration for 2,044 participants, without ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Blue Bird Boosts Outlook After Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Blue Bird reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter results showing net sales of $352.6 million, down 1.7% year-on-year due to fewer production days, while GAAP net income rose to $29.3 million and adjusted EBITDA reached a record second...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.