Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.64B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 404.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: 9.87%
• EPS Growth: 22.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 1.32
• Shares Outstanding: 31,714,958
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 391,534
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 404,080
• PEG Ratio: 0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.20
• 1Y Price Target: $61.17
• Price Target Upside: 18.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.51B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $56.00 ▲(8.28% Upside)

Blue Bird's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are major strengths, reflecting robust growth and strategic focus on EVs. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are moderate, limiting the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Electric Vehicle Expansion

Growing EV sales show Blue Bird's strategic focus on sustainable transportation, positioning it well for future regulatory and market shifts.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation supports financial flexibility and investment capacity, crucial for sustaining growth and innovation.

Negative Factors

Joint Venture Termination

Ending the joint venture may limit strategic opportunities and partnerships in clean energy solutions, affecting long-term growth prospects.

Tariff Challenges

Tariff-related uncertainties can impact pricing strategies and order intake, potentially affecting revenue and profitability.

EBIT Margin Anomaly

The unexplained zero EBIT margin raises concerns about operational efficiency and profitability, requiring further investigation.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird generates revenue primarily through the sale of its school buses to school districts, private schools, and other educational institutions. The company has a diverse revenue model that includes the sale of new buses, parts and service for existing buses, and aftermarket support. Key revenue streams include direct sales of vehicles, which can be customized to meet specific needs, and ongoing maintenance contracts that provide a steady income source. Additionally, partnerships with government agencies and educational organizations help secure contracts and funding for bus purchases, particularly for electric and environmentally friendly models, which are increasingly in demand due to regulatory changes and sustainability initiatives. The company also benefits from financing options offered to customers, enhancing their ability to purchase new vehicles.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Bird has shown significant improvements in revenue growth, profitability, and leverage management. The company's ability to generate cash is robust, supporting its financial stability. However, the unexplained zero EBIT margin in 2025 and the missing equity ratio are areas that require further investigation.

Income Statement

Blue Bird has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the past few years, with a notable increase in gross profit margin from 12.26% in 2023 to 20.51% in 2025. The net profit margin has also improved significantly, reaching 8.63% in 2025. However, the EBIT margin in 2025 is reported as zero, which may indicate a reporting error or a need for further clarification. Overall, the company shows strong profitability trends, but the EBIT margin anomaly needs attention.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly from a high of 124.70 in 2022 to 0.35 in 2025, indicating better financial leverage management. Return on equity is strong at 50.00% in 2025, suggesting efficient use of equity. However, the equity ratio is not provided, which limits a full assessment of financial stability. The improvement in leverage is a positive sign, but the absence of the equity ratio is a limitation.

Cash Flow

Blue Bird's free cash flow has grown by 15.83% in 2025, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggests a healthy conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, showing that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its net income. Overall, cash flow metrics are strong, supporting the company's financial health.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.48B	1.48B	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M
Gross Profit	303.51M	303.51M	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M
EBITDA	192.35M	192.35M	152.34M	60.92M	-23.23M	21.95M
Net Income	127.72M	127.72M	105.55M	23.81M	-41.60M	-787.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	625.25M	625.25M	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	229.31M	229.31M	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M
Total Debt	96.61M	96.61M	100.82M	131.91M	174.48M	220.82M
Total Liabilities	396.25M	369.84M	387.73M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M
Stockholders Equity	255.41M	255.41M	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	162.36M	176.21M	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M
Operating Cash Flow	176.21M	176.21M	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-23.87M	-23.87M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-50.72M	-50.72M	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 51.72
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.55, below the 50-day MA of 52.29, and above the 200-day MA of 46.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GM	73 Outperform	$76.82B	16.55	4.44%	0.69%	2.58%	-46.27%
F	71 Outperform	$53.67B	11.55	10.26%	5.57%	3.75%	33.37%
BLBD	69 Neutral	$1.64B	13.32	61.55%	―	9.87%	22.67%
HMC	69 Neutral	$40.46B	9.98	5.23%	4.19%	0.34%	-25.49%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RIVN	61 Neutral	$27.52B	-7.22	-65.28%	―	28.21%	44.43%
LCID	41 Neutral	$3.83B	-1.10	-61.12%	―	45.86%	22.13%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird Reports Record Sales and Income for Q4 2025

On November 24, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation reported its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and full-year financial results, achieving record net sales of $1.48 billion and a GAAP net income of $128 million. The company sold 9,409 buses, including a record 901 electric-powered buses, and reaffirmed its FY2026 guidance with expectations of continued profitable growth.

Blue Bird Appoints New COO Amid Joint Venture End

On October 22, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced the termination of its joint venture with Generate Capital, Clean Bus Solutions, LLC, due to the venture’s inability to generate profitable returns. The dissolution is not expected to adversely affect Blue Bird’s financial condition. Additionally, Blue Bird elevated Jeff Sanfrey to the position of Chief Operating Officer, recognizing his role as an executive officer under SEC regulations. Sanfrey, a veteran in manufacturing and engineering, will oversee manufacturing, logistics, and quality, with a compensation package including a base salary and incentive plans.