Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.23B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 399.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 7.57%
• EPS Growth: 34.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 0.96
• Shares Outstanding: 31,565,453
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 341,058
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 399,092
• PEG Ratio: 4.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.96
• 1Y Price Target: $49.60
• Price Target Upside: 22.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(8.48%Upside)

Blue Bird's overall score is driven by strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call highlights. The company's solid revenue growth and profitability, along with strategic positioning in EVs, are significant strengths. However, reliance on liabilities and tariff challenges pose risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

FQ2 saw record revenue of $359mn, 1% ahead of expectations and record EBITDA of $49.2mn, 4% ahead of consensus.

Market Expansion

The Buy rating is reiterated due to the potential expansion into the class 5/6 truck market which is seen as a growth opportunity beyond the traditional school bus market.

Operational Efficiency

Blue Bird beat and maintained outlook as revamped operations drive outperformance.

Negative Factors

Electric Vehicle Funding

There is elevated uncertainty surrounding electric vehicle school bus deliveries due to concerns over Environmental Protection Agency funding.

Tariff Impact

The 145% tariffs on China severely impact the firm’s EV kits from Accelera, with the potential to add 10% to the price of an EV bus.

Valuation Concerns

Concerns around funding for EV school buses continue to weigh on the stock, with Blue Bird trading at a historically low valuation.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a leading manufacturer of school buses in North America, known for its innovation and commitment to safety and durability. Founded in 1927, the company has established itself as a staple in the transportation industry, offering a range of school bus products, including Type A, C, and D buses. Blue Bird also provides comprehensive aftermarket services, including parts and maintenance, to ensure the longevity and efficiency of its vehicles.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its school buses to school districts, private operators, and bus dealers across North America. The company's key revenue streams include the manufacturing and sale of new buses, particularly its Type C and Type D models, which are the most popular among large districts due to their capacity and efficiency. In addition to bus sales, Blue Bird earns income from its aftermarket services, which include spare parts, maintenance, and repair services. This segment not only provides a steady revenue stream but also strengthens customer loyalty by extending the life and performance of its buses. Strategic partnerships with engine and component manufacturers, as well as financing partnerships that facilitate bus purchases for customers, also play a crucial role in driving sales and enhancing market penetration.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Bird has demonstrated significant financial improvement, with strong revenue and profit growth, improved margins, and effective cash flow management. The balance sheet is solid with a decrease in leverage and high return on equity. While the company shows financial strength, maintaining prudence in debt management is crucial for long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Blue Bird shows a robust revenue growth trajectory with substantial improvements in profitability. The gross profit margin is healthy at 18.81% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Net profit margin has significantly improved to 8.05%, indicating effective cost management. Revenue growth rate from 2023 to TTM is impressive at 18.62%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins have strengthened, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet exhibits a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 33.57% for TTM. Debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting reduced leverage risk. Return on equity is strong at 60.18%, showcasing high profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the company needs to maintain a cautious approach to debt management to sustain its financial health.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are robust, with free cash flow showing notable growth of 12.44% from 2023 to TTM. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.27, indicating solid cash generation relative to net earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable at 1.16, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash flow.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.34B	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M	879.22M
	Gross Profit
252.62M	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M	96.20M
	EBIT
134.42M	139.33M	51.66M	-40.70M	6.52M	21.99M
	EBITDA
153.83M	152.34M	60.92M	-23.23M	21.95M	37.14M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
108.12M	105.55M	23.81M	-41.60M	-787.00K	8.97M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
93.10M	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M	44.51M
	Total Assets
456.48M	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M	317.42M
	Total Debt
98.60M	95.97M	131.91M	172.33M	215.29M	181.26M
	Net Debt
5.50M	-31.71M	52.93M	161.85M	203.58M	136.76M
	Total Liabilities
350.69M	387.73M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M	370.64M
	Stockholders Equity
105.79M	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M	-53.23M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
120.35M	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M	-15.51M
	Operating Cash Flow
137.31M	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M	3.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
-18.00M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M	-18.80M
	Financing Cash Flow
-60.48M	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M	-11.11M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.60, above the 50-day MA of 36.58, and above the 200-day MA of 40.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLBD	75 Outperform	$1.23B	12.45	73.02%	―	7.57%	34.82%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.83B	11.28	2.95%	3.88%	2.70%	-24.56%
LVWR	54 Neutral	$1.15B	―	-63.74%	―	-30.76%	20.33%
FFAI	49 Neutral	$120.08M	―	-186.28%	―	8.52%	98.75%
CENN	49 Neutral	$28.39M	―	-32.49%	―	36.58%	-62.75%
WKHS	44 Neutral	$8.52M	―	-188.79%	―	-53.55%	65.29%
EVTV	40 Underperform	$5.21M	―	-132.63%	―	-47.62%	8.34%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird Reports Record Q2 Sales and Income

On May 7, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 second quarter results, reporting record net sales of $359 million and a GAAP net income of $26 million. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 guidance, highlighting a strong market demand with a backlog of approximately 4,900 units and a significant push in electric-powered buses, with 265 units delivered in the quarter. The results underscore Blue Bird’s robust operational performance and its leadership in the alternative-powered school bus market.