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Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)
NASDAQ:BLBD
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Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

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BLBD

Blue Bird

(NASDAQ:BLBD)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$66.00
▲(14.76% Upside)
Blue Bird's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, which highlighted record sales and strategic initiatives. The technical analysis indicates a strong upward trend, though caution is advised due to overbought signals. Valuation is reasonable, but the lack of a dividend yield may deter some investors.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Record sales and increased EBITDA indicate strong demand and effective cost management, supporting long-term revenue growth and market position.
Electric Vehicle Expansion
Strong performance in the EV segment shows Blue Bird's commitment to sustainability and positions it well in the growing electric vehicle market.
Financial Position and Liquidity
Strong liquidity and a share repurchase program reflect financial health and confidence in future cash flow, enhancing shareholder value.
Negative Factors
Tariff-Related Uncertainty
Tariff uncertainties can disrupt supply chains and impact order volumes, posing risks to revenue stability and operational planning.
Operational Cost Increases
Rising operational costs may pressure margins and require efficiency improvements to maintain profitability in the long term.
Material and Supplier Cost Pressures
Ongoing cost pressures from materials and suppliers could impact profitability and require strategic sourcing and pricing adjustments.

Blue Bird (BLBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlue Bird generates revenue primarily through the sale of its buses to school districts and transit agencies. The company offers a variety of models that cater to different customer needs, enhancing its appeal in the market. In addition to bus sales, Blue Bird earns revenue from parts and service offerings, including aftermarket parts sales and maintenance services, which provide ongoing income after the initial bus sale. The company has also made significant strides in the electric bus market, which is becoming an important revenue stream as schools and municipalities seek to implement greener transportation solutions. Strategic partnerships with various suppliers and technology firms enhance Blue Bird's product offerings and drive additional sales, while government funding for school transportation and sustainability initiatives can further bolster the company's financial performance.

Blue Bird Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Gross Profit by Segment
Examines profit after direct costs across segments, indicating which areas are most lucrative and efficient in cost management.
Chart InsightsBlue Bird's gross profit from the Bus segment has rebounded significantly since 2022, reflecting strategic pricing and strong demand, despite previous volatility. The Parts segment shows steady growth, supporting overall profitability. The latest earnings call highlights record revenue and profit, driven by increased bus prices and a robust backlog. However, new tariffs may challenge EV production costs, potentially affecting future margins. Despite these hurdles, Blue Bird's leadership in alternative power vehicles and strategic actions position it well for continued growth in fiscal 2025.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Blue Bird Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Blue Bird's earnings call reflected strong financial performance, record sales, and strategic initiatives in manufacturing and product development, counterbalanced by challenges related to tariff uncertainties and operational cost pressures.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Sales and Adjusted EBITDA
Blue Bird reported record sales of $398 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $58 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, exceeding guidance and increasing full-year projections.
Strong Performance in EV Segment
The company sold 271 electric vehicles in Q3, representing 11% of total volume, with a strong outlook for future EV sales.
Profitability and Cash Flow
Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 14.7%, and free cash flow was strong at $52 million, $56 million higher than the previous year.
Increased Full-Year Guidance
The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting adjusted EBITDA to reach $210 million or 14.5%.
New Manufacturing and Product Initiatives
Blue Bird is investing in manufacturing automation and product development, with a new plant in Plattsburg, New York, and a focus on long-term competitive strategies.
Strong Liquidity and Share Repurchase Program
The company reported record liquidity of $315 million and announced a new $100 million share repurchase program.
Expansion into New Markets
The company is expanding its product line with a new commercial chassis and increasing small bus capacity through the Micro Bird joint venture.
Negative Updates
Tariff-Related Uncertainty
The uncertainty created by tariff policies led to a reduction in industry backlog, impacting orders and creating market volatility.
Challenges with EV Demand
Although EV demand remains strong, it has softened due to tariff uncertainties, impacting the immediate growth potential in the segment.
Increased Operational Costs
The company reported increased investments in headcount, engineering, and business growth areas, affecting operating costs.
Material and Supplier Cost Pressures
The company continues to face material cost and supplier inflation pressures, compounded by newly implemented tariffs.
Company Guidance
During the Blue Bird fiscal 2025 third quarter earnings call, the company reported record sales and adjusted EBITDA, surpassing their Q3 guidance and consequently increasing their full-year guidance despite tariff-related challenges. They sold 2,467 buses in Q3, generating $398 million in revenue, which was $65 million higher than the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $58 million, marking a $10 million improvement from last year, while free cash flow was reported at $52 million. The company maintained a backlog of 3,900 units, with EVs comprising 11% of the volume, and they anticipate 900 EV unit sales for the full year. They also reported a strong financial position with $173 million in cash and an improved liquidity of $315 million. Looking forward, Blue Bird raised its full-year guidance, forecasting $210 million in adjusted EBITDA at a 14.5% margin, and they announced a $100 million share repurchase program.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Blue Bird shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability, with a robust cash flow performance. However, the balance sheet indicates a high reliance on liabilities, which could pose financial risks.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Blue Bird has demonstrated a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a significant increase in total revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved over the years, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and profitability. However, the EBIT margin has experienced fluctuations, suggesting potential volatility in operating expenses.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company has shown improvement in its debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting a more balanced capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) has increased significantly, indicating better utilization of equity investments. However, the equity ratio remains low, highlighting a higher reliance on liabilities, which could pose financial risks.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Blue Bird's cash flow performance is strong, with consistent free cash flow generation and a positive free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, fluctuations in investing and financing cash flows indicate potential volatility in investment activities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.42B1.35B1.13B800.64M684.00M879.22M
Gross Profit276.70M256.16M138.85M36.55M72.14M96.20M
EBITDA167.60M152.34M60.92M-23.23M21.95M37.14M
Net Income115.89M105.55M23.81M-41.60M-787.00K8.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets575.45M524.89M417.77M366.13M356.02M317.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments173.07M127.69M78.99M10.48M11.71M44.51M
Total Debt91.49M95.97M131.91M172.33M215.29M181.26M
Total Liabilities353.60M365.33M377.77M364.74M388.68M370.64M
Stockholders Equity221.85M159.56M40.00M1.38M-32.66M-53.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow152.13M95.85M111.41M-30.89M-66.45M-15.51M
Operating Cash Flow166.45M111.11M119.93M-24.44M-54.24M3.46M
Investing Cash Flow-24.74M-15.81M-8.52M-6.45M-11.31M-18.80M
Financing Cash Flow-57.05M-46.60M-42.90M29.66M32.75M-11.11M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price57.51
Price Trends
50DMA
54.12
Positive
100DMA
47.80
Positive
200DMA
42.25
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.08
Positive
RSI
51.07
Neutral
STOCH
20.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.36, above the 50-day MA of 54.12, and above the 200-day MA of 42.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Risk Analysis

Blue Bird disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Bird reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$1.84B16.5464.54%9.31%17.38%
54
Neutral
$957.57M-11.44-81.59%-31.27%13.28%
45
Neutral
$16.60M-0.04-365.78%11.73%74.79%
45
Neutral
$203.15M-0.17-309.52%-43.10%98.55%
44
Neutral
$6.67M-0.18-42.29%2.97%-11.17%
40
Neutral
$30.26M-0.44-57.64%7.86%-22.19%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BLBD
Blue Bird
57.51
11.41
24.75%
F
Ford Motor
12.09
2.10
21.02%
GM
General Motors
61.12
16.71
37.63%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
33.11
1.97
6.33%
LCID
Lucid Group
24.11
-8.49
-26.04%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
15.25
4.81
46.07%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Stock Buyback
Blue Bird Announces $100 Million Share Buyback Plan
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 5, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program for up to $100 million of its common stock, set to run until January 1, 2028. This initiative allows the company to buy back shares through various methods, with the flexibility to adjust or terminate the program as needed, potentially impacting the company’s stock value and shareholder returns.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Blue Bird Announces Record Q3 Results and Share Buyback
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 third quarter results, reporting record net sales of $398 million and a GAAP net income of $36 million. The company exceeded its third-quarter guidance and raised its full-year financial outlook, with an adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $210 million. Blue Bird also announced a $100 million share buy-back program, reflecting its strong market position and commitment to shareholder value. The company highlighted its successful expansion in the electric bus market, with a record 271 electric buses delivered in the quarter and a robust backlog of 1,200 EV buses, supporting its 2025 sales targets.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025