Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.75B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 399.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: 9.31%
• EPS Growth: 17.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 1.19
• Shares Outstanding: 31,707,943
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 368,398
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 399,147
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.90
• 1Y Price Target: $56.80
• Price Target Upside: 1.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $63.00 ▲(12.96% Upside)

Blue Bird's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. While the company faces challenges from tariff uncertainties and operational costs, its strategic initiatives and improved financial metrics provide a solid foundation for future growth.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Record sales and increased guidance highlight strong revenue growth, indicating robust demand and effective sales strategies, which are fundamental for long-term business success.

Electric Vehicle Expansion

Expanding EV sales reflect Blue Bird's strategic positioning in the growing electric vehicle market, aligning with sustainability trends and enhancing future revenue streams.

Cash Flow and Liquidity

Strong cash flow and liquidity provide financial stability, enabling investment in growth opportunities and cushioning against economic uncertainties.

Negative Factors

Tariff-Related Uncertainty

Tariff uncertainties can disrupt supply chains and impact order volumes, posing a risk to consistent revenue generation and operational planning.

Operational Cost Increases

Rising operational costs can pressure profit margins, potentially reducing profitability unless offset by revenue growth or cost efficiencies.

Material and Supplier Cost Pressures

Inflationary pressures on materials and suppliers can erode margins and necessitate price adjustments, affecting competitive positioning and customer relationships.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird generates revenue primarily through the sale of its buses to school districts and transit agencies. The company offers a variety of models that cater to different customer needs, enhancing its appeal in the market. In addition to bus sales, Blue Bird earns revenue from parts and service offerings, including aftermarket parts sales and maintenance services, which provide ongoing income after the initial bus sale. The company has also made significant strides in the electric bus market, which is becoming an important revenue stream as schools and municipalities seek to implement greener transportation solutions. Strategic partnerships with various suppliers and technology firms enhance Blue Bird's product offerings and drive additional sales, while government funding for school transportation and sustainability initiatives can further bolster the company's financial performance.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Bird has shown strong financial performance with significant revenue and profit growth, improved leverage, and robust cash flow generation. While the company has effectively managed its debt and improved profitability, potential risks include operational efficiency challenges and reliance on debt financing.

Income Statement

Blue Bird has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 4.77% increase in TTM, supported by a healthy gross profit margin of 19.47%. The net profit margin is solid at 8.16%, indicating effective cost management. However, the EBIT margin has decreased compared to the previous year, suggesting potential operational efficiency issues.

Balance Sheet

The company has improved its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.41, showing better leverage management. The return on equity is impressive at 61.68%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the equity ratio remains low, indicating a high reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Blue Bird's free cash flow growth rate is robust at 57.96%, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.73. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, historical volatility in cash flow metrics suggests potential future fluctuations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2019	Dec 2018	Dec 2017
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.42B	1.35B	1.13B	1.02B	1.02B	990.60M
Gross Profit	276.70M	256.16M	138.85M	133.47M	121.99M	127.37M
EBITDA	167.60M	152.34M	60.92M	63.57M	42.58M	52.78M
Net Income	115.89M	105.55M	23.81M	24.30M	30.82M	28.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	575.45M	524.89M	417.77M	365.41M	307.43M	295.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	173.07M	127.69M	78.99M	70.96M	60.26M	62.62M
Total Debt	91.49M	95.97M	131.91M	187.76M	142.14M	151.22M
Total Liabilities	353.60M	365.33M	377.77M	433.22M	335.77M	354.33M
Stockholders Equity	221.85M	159.56M	40.00M	-67.81M	-28.34M	-58.51M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	152.13M	95.85M	111.41M	20.19M	16.23M	38.39M
Operating Cash Flow	166.45M	111.11M	119.93M	55.71M	48.35M	47.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-24.74M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-35.47M	-32.10M	-9.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-57.05M	-46.60M	-42.90M	-9.54M	-18.61M	-28.13M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 55.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.76, below the 50-day MA of 56.93, and above the 200-day MA of 43.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLBD	75 Outperform	$1.75B	15.92	64.54%	―	9.31%	17.38%
GM	75 Outperform	$55.22B	9.25	7.07%	0.93%	5.34%	-28.29%
HMC	71 Outperform	$42.33B	10.82	5.17%	4.44%	1.68%	-39.28%
F	66 Neutral	$47.72B	15.21	7.11%	5.97%	2.72%	-17.58%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
LCID	48 Neutral	$6.11B	―	-54.39%	―	39.01%	7.12%
RIVN	48 Neutral	$15.87B	―	-54.42%	―	2.73%	45.63%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird Announces $100 Million Share Buyback Plan

On August 5, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program for up to $100 million of its common stock, set to run until January 1, 2028. This initiative allows the company to buy back shares through various methods, with the flexibility to adjust or terminate the program as needed, potentially impacting the company’s stock value and shareholder returns.

Blue Bird Announces Record Q3 Results and Share Buyback

On August 6, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 third quarter results, reporting record net sales of $398 million and a GAAP net income of $36 million. The company exceeded its third-quarter guidance and raised its full-year financial outlook, with an adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $210 million. Blue Bird also announced a $100 million share buy-back program, reflecting its strong market position and commitment to shareholder value. The company highlighted its successful expansion in the electric bus market, with a record 271 electric buses delivered in the quarter and a robust backlog of 1,200 EV buses, supporting its 2025 sales targets.