Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.60B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 438.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: 9.87%
• EPS Growth: 22.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 1.32
• Shares Outstanding: 31,714,958
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 437,821
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 438,984
• PEG Ratio: 0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.20
• 1Y Price Target: $63.75
• Price Target Upside: 25.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(20.32% Upside)

Blue Bird's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's strategic focus on EVs and manufacturing improvements supports long-term growth potential. Technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, and the valuation is reasonable. Challenges with tariffs and government policies are noted but do not overshadow the company's positive trajectory.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Record sales and increased guidance highlight strong revenue growth, indicating robust demand and effective sales strategies, which are fundamental for long-term business success.

Electric Vehicle Expansion

Expanding EV sales reflect Blue Bird's strategic positioning in the growing electric vehicle market, aligning with sustainability trends and enhancing future revenue streams.

Cash Flow and Liquidity

Strong cash flow and liquidity provide financial stability, enabling investment in growth opportunities and cushioning against economic uncertainties.

Negative Factors

Tariff-Related Uncertainty

Tariff uncertainties can disrupt supply chains and impact order volumes, posing a risk to consistent revenue generation and operational planning.

Operational Cost Increases

Rising operational costs can pressure profit margins, potentially reducing profitability unless offset by revenue growth or cost efficiencies.

Material and Supplier Cost Pressures

Inflationary pressures on materials and suppliers can erode margins and necessitate price adjustments, affecting competitive positioning and customer relationships.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a leading manufacturer of school buses in the United States, specializing in the design, production, and sale of a range of school bus models. The company operates primarily within the transportation sector and focuses on providing safe, efficient, and environmentally friendly vehicles. Blue Bird's core products include traditional school buses, electric buses, and specialty buses, catering to both public and private school districts across North America.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird generates revenue primarily through the sale of its school buses to school districts, private schools, and other educational institutions. The company has a diverse revenue model that includes the sale of new buses, parts and service for existing buses, and aftermarket support. Key revenue streams include direct sales of vehicles, which can be customized to meet specific needs, and ongoing maintenance contracts that provide a steady income source. Additionally, partnerships with government agencies and educational organizations help secure contracts and funding for bus purchases, particularly for electric and environmentally friendly models, which are increasingly in demand due to regulatory changes and sustainability initiatives. The company also benefits from financing options offered to customers, enhancing their ability to purchase new vehicles.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Bird has shown significant improvements in revenue growth, profitability, and leverage management. The company's cash generation is robust, supporting financial stability. However, the unexplained zero EBIT margin in 2025 and the missing equity ratio are areas that require further investigation.

Income Statement

Blue Bird has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the past few years, with a notable increase in gross profit margin from 12.26% in 2023 to 20.51% in 2025. The net profit margin has also improved significantly, reaching 8.63% in 2025. However, the EBIT margin in 2025 is reported as zero, which may indicate a reporting error or a need for further clarification. Overall, the company shows strong profitability trends, but the EBIT margin anomaly needs attention.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly from a high of 124.70 in 2022 to 0.35 in 2025, indicating better financial leverage management. Return on equity is strong at 50.00% in 2025, suggesting efficient use of equity. However, the equity ratio is not provided, which limits a full assessment of financial stability. The improvement in leverage is a positive sign, but the absence of the equity ratio is a limitation.

Cash Flow

Blue Bird's free cash flow has grown by 15.83% in 2025, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggests a healthy conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, showing that the company is generating sufficient cash to cover its net income. Overall, cash flow metrics are strong, supporting the company's financial health.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.48B	1.48B	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M
Gross Profit	303.51M	303.51M	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M
EBITDA	192.35M	192.35M	152.34M	60.92M	-23.23M	21.95M
Net Income	127.72M	127.72M	105.55M	23.81M	-41.60M	-787.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	625.25M	625.25M	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	229.31M	229.31M	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M
Total Debt	90.32M	90.32M	95.97M	131.91M	174.48M	220.82M
Total Liabilities	369.84M	369.84M	365.33M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M
Stockholders Equity	255.41M	255.41M	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	162.36M	176.21M	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M
Operating Cash Flow	176.21M	176.21M	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-23.87M	-23.87M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-50.72M	-50.72M	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 50.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.42, below the 50-day MA of 53.62, and above the 200-day MA of 45.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GM	75 Outperform	$68.71B	14.80	4.44%	0.93%	2.58%	-46.27%
F	74 Outperform	$52.44B	11.28	10.26%	5.79%	3.75%	33.37%
BLBD	73 Outperform	$1.60B	13.01	61.55%	―	9.87%	22.67%
HMC	73 Outperform	$39.75B	9.76	5.23%	4.28%	0.34%	-25.49%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RIVN	57 Neutral	$21.12B	―	-65.28%	―	28.21%	44.43%
LCID	41 Neutral	$4.08B	―	-61.12%	―	45.86%	22.13%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird Corporation Achieves Record Financial Results in 2025

Blue Bird Corporation, a leading manufacturer of electric and low-emission school buses, has reported its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, showcasing record-breaking performance in revenue and profit.

Blue Bird Reports Record Sales and Income for Q4 2025

On November 24, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation reported its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and full-year financial results, achieving record net sales of $1.48 billion and a GAAP net income of $128 million. The company sold 9,409 buses, including a record 901 electric-powered buses, and reaffirmed its FY2026 guidance with expectations of continued profitable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.

Blue Bird Appoints New COO Amid Joint Venture End

On October 22, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced the termination of its joint venture with Generate Capital, Clean Bus Solutions, LLC, due to the venture’s inability to generate profitable returns. The dissolution is not expected to adversely affect Blue Bird’s financial condition. Additionally, Blue Bird elevated Jeff Sanfrey to the position of Chief Operating Officer, recognizing his role as an executive officer under SEC regulations. Sanfrey, a veteran in manufacturing and engineering, will oversee manufacturing, logistics, and quality, with a compensation package including a base salary and incentive plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.