Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.70B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 458.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: 9.87%
• EPS Growth: 22.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 1.00
• Shares Outstanding: 31,591,902
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 358,994
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 458,634
• PEG Ratio: 0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.99
• 1Y Price Target: $66.00
• Price Target Upside: 22.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.49
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.51B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $60.00 ▲(11.30% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability and cash-flow recovery alongside reduced leverage) and a constructive earnings update with raised EBITDA guidance and a solid backlog. These are tempered by weaker near-term technical momentum and the key operational risks flagged (tariffs/cost pressures and EV delivery timing), while valuation appears reasonable at ~13x earnings.

Positive Factors

Improved Balance Sheet

Material deleveraging and rebuilt equity provide durable financial flexibility: lowers refinancing and covenant risk, supports discretionary uses (capex, buybacks, M&A) and improves resilience through cycles. History of earlier stressed capital structure remains a watch but current position is substantially stronger.

Strong Cash Generation

Consistent, high free cash flow supports sustainable reinvestment and capital return. Robust FCF enables funding of extraordinary CapEx (plant automation), debt reduction, and share repurchases while insulating the business from cyclical revenue swings and supporting long-term margin improvements.

Expanded Product Portfolio via Micro Bird Acquisition

Full ownership of Micro Bird materially broadens Type A/C/D product breadth and Buy America–compliant offerings, expanding the addressable market and enabling operational integration. Consolidation should drive scale, cross-sell, dealer alignment and a stronger platform for alternative-powertrain rollouts over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Tariff Volatility

Unpredictable tariff treatment injects structural cost volatility into vehicle procurement and margins. Even with disciplined pass‑through, differing tariff levels across powertrains complicate pricing, distort product mix economics and can erode competitiveness if external funding or customer willingness to pay is insufficient.

EV Delivery Timing & Infrastructure Constraints

Infrastructure and customer readiness delays create a multi-period revenue and margin timing risk: EV unit recognition can slip, slowing expected battery-electric scale benefits and associated margin improvements, while compressing near-term returns on DOE‑funded plant investments and operational capacity planning.

Sourcing & Supply-Chain Complexity

Shifting country-of-origin rules and tariff classifications raise procurement complexity and SG&A to manage supplier networks. This structural sourcing friction increases unit cost volatility, limits ability to lock in stable margins, and requires ongoing investment in sourcing/legal resources to mitigate tariff exposure.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird makes money primarily by selling new school buses, generating revenue when customers purchase buses through its dealer network and fleet/direct channels. A second, recurring revenue stream comes from aftermarket parts and related support for the large installed base of Blue Bird buses; parts sales typically include replacement components and maintenance items sold through dealers and distribution channels. The company also earns from selling alternative-fuel and electric school buses, where revenue is recognized on bus deliveries like other vehicle sales, with demand influenced by customer total-cost-of-ownership considerations and the availability of external funding or incentives for clean transportation. To support sales and product adoption, Blue Bird works with a network of dealers and, for certain powertrain technologies (e.g., propane and electric drivetrains/components), relies on third-party technology and component suppliers; these relationships can affect product availability, cost structure, and the pace of alternative-powertrain adoption, which in turn influences revenue and margins.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong turnaround with materially higher revenue, improved margins, and a return to solid profitability; debt has been reduced and equity rebuilt. Cash generation is strong (healthy TTM operating and free cash flow), but balance-sheet history (prior thin/negative equity) and lumpy growth/cash conversion add cyclical risk.

Income Statement

BLBD shows a strong multi-year profitability turnaround. Revenue rose to $1.50B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from $684M in 2021, while margins expanded meaningfully (gross margin ~20.5% TTM vs ~10.5% in 2021). Net margin improved to ~8.6% TTM from losses in 2021–2022, indicating better pricing, mix, and/or cost control. The main offset is volatility in growth rates across years (including a sharp slowdown in the latest annual period vs prior high-growth years), which adds cyclicality risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and capitalization have improved substantially versus earlier years. Total debt declined from ~$221M (2021) to ~$89M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and debt relative to equity improved from extremely stressed levels (including negative/near-zero equity in 2021–2022) to a more reasonable ~0.38 in the latest periods. Equity has rebuilt to ~$271M TTM, supporting a healthier balance sheet. Still, the company’s history of very thin/negative equity and high leverage in 2021–2022 suggests the capital structure can deteriorate quickly in a downturn, even though current positioning is much better.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and supportive of the earnings recovery. Operating cash flow is strong at ~$186M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and free cash flow is also high at ~$177M, with free cash flow broadly tracking net income (free cash flow is ~92% of net income TTM). A key watch-out is that cash conversion is not consistently strong (operating cash flow is well below revenue in the latest periods), and free cash flow growth is lumpy year to year, reflecting working-capital and cycle sensitivity.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50B	1.48B	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M
Gross Profit	314.43M	303.51M	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M
EBITDA	194.40M	192.35M	152.34M	59.80M	-24.33M	21.15M
Net Income	129.75M	127.72M	105.55M	23.81M	-45.76M	-289.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	642.34M	625.25M	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	241.74M	229.31M	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M
Total Debt	89.15M	90.32M	95.97M	131.91M	174.48M	220.82M
Total Liabilities	370.97M	369.84M	365.33M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M
Stockholders Equity	271.37M	255.41M	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	162.64M	153.34M	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M
Operating Cash Flow	186.38M	176.21M	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-24.43M	-23.87M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-56.33M	-50.72M	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 53.91
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 53.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.87, below the 50-day MA of 53.92, and above the 200-day MA of 51.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLBD	75 Outperform	$1.70B	13.11	55.27%	―	9.87%	22.67%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
GM	59 Neutral	$66.47B	27.72	5.13%	0.69%	-1.29%	-49.96%
HMC	59 Neutral	$32.81B	9.64	4.09%	4.19%	0.32%	-25.51%
RIVN	50 Neutral	$19.27B	-7.49	-66.53%	―	28.21%	44.43%
F	48 Neutral	$47.04B	-6.38	-18.91%	5.64%	3.75%	33.37%
LCID	47 Neutral	$3.26B	-12.21	-133.09%	―	45.86%	22.13%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Incentive Plan

At its March 11, 2026 annual meeting, Blue Bird stockholders approved an amended and restated 2015 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan, effective November 21, 2025, raising the share pool for awards from 5.2 million to 6.1 million, increasing allowable full-value awards by 900,000 shares, and extending the plan’s term to November 21, 2035. The plan, administered by the board’s compensation committee, underpins the firm’s equity-based pay, which in fiscal 2025 included significant RSU grants to directors, management, and CEO John Wyskiel, reinforcing long-term alignment between leadership and shareholders.

Shareholders also elected two Class III directors to terms ending in 2029 and approved several governance and compensation items, including officer liability limitation amendments, the executive compensation “say-on-pay” resolution, and the annual frequency for future say-on-pay votes. Investors further ratified BDO USA, P.C. as the independent auditor for fiscal 2026, signaling broad support for the company’s governance, compensation framework, and financial oversight structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.

Blue Bird to Acquire Full Ownership of Micro Bird

On Feb. 15, 2026, Blue Bird agreed to acquire Girardin Group’s 50% stake in their Micro Bird joint venture for approximately $200 million, paying 30% in cash and 70% in equity, which will give Blue Bird full ownership of the business. The deal, expected to close in the first half of 2026 subject to conditions and approvals, also includes purchase of Micro Bird’s Plattsburgh, N.Y., manufacturing facility and a five-year non-compete from the sellers in bus manufacturing.

By consolidating Micro Bird, Blue Bird plans to unify its operations under one brand and team, enabling what it calls the broadest product portfolio of Type A, C and D school, multi-purpose, and commercial buses with diesel, gasoline, propane and electric powertrains. The transaction significantly expands Blue Bird’s addressable market in Buy America–compliant shuttle buses, and the company intends to add longtime partner executive Steve Girardin to its board as a Class III director, aligning governance with the enlarged North American bus platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Buy with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.

Blue Bird Raises 2026 Outlook After Strong Q1 Results

On February 4, 2026, Blue Bird reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter results for the period ended December 27, 2025, posting net sales of $333.1 million, up 6.1% year over year, and GAAP net income of $30.8 million, with diluted EPS of $0.94. The company delivered 2,135 buses and achieved record first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $50.1 million, representing a 15% margin, driven primarily by pricing actions and favorable customer and product mix that offset higher procurement costs linked to tariffs, while parts revenue dipped slightly. Blue Bird highlighted its growing presence in alternative-powered school buses, delivering 121 electric buses in the quarter and ending with a firm order backlog of more than 850 EV buses, supporting its 2026 EV sales targets. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $225 million and reaffirmed net revenue guidance of about $1.5 billion, while reiterating a longer-term outlook of roughly $2 billion in revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 16%, signaling confidence in sustained profitable growth and reinforcing its positioning as a leader in low- and zero-emission school transportation.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.

Blue Bird Announces Board Resignation Amid Planned Transition

On December 24, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced that former President and CEO Phil Horlock, who has served as a Class III director, resigned from the company’s board of directors with immediate effect, a move the company said was not due to any disagreement over its operations, policies or practices. In a December 29, 2025 statement, Blue Bird highlighted Horlock’s more than 12-year tenure as CEO, during which he led the company through significant growth and operational improvements, and noted that after handing over the CEO role to John Wyskiel nearly a year earlier, Horlock continued to provide strategic guidance that helped position the school bus maker for continued success, underscoring a planned and orderly leadership transition that appears supportive of continuity for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.