Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.87B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 735.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 9.31%
• EPS Growth: 17.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 1.19
• Shares Outstanding: 31,707,943
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 618,358
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 735,648
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.90
• 1Y Price Target: $54.60
• Price Target Upside: -6.27% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $66.00 ▲(13.30% Upside)

Blue Bird's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, which highlighted record sales and strategic initiatives. The technical analysis indicates a strong upward trend, though caution is advised due to overbought signals. Valuation is reasonable, but the lack of a dividend yield may deter some investors.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Blue Bird beat and maintained outlook as revamped operations drive outperformance.

Market Growth

The Buy rating is reiterated due to the potential expansion into the class 5/6 truck market which is seen as a growth opportunity beyond the traditional school bus market.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Concerns

Fears of an EV school bus slowdown on less supportive regulatory policies as an anchor weighing on estimates.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a leading manufacturer of school buses and commercial buses in the United States. Founded in 1927 and headquartered in Fort Valley, Georgia, the company specializes in producing a wide range of school buses, including traditional, electric, and propane-powered models. Blue Bird’s commitment to safety, innovation, and sustainability has positioned it as a key player in the public transportation sector, catering primarily to school districts and municipalities across North America.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird generates revenue primarily through the sale of its buses to school districts and transit agencies. The company offers a variety of models that cater to different customer needs, enhancing its appeal in the market. In addition to bus sales, Blue Bird earns revenue from parts and service offerings, including aftermarket parts sales and maintenance services, which provide ongoing income after the initial bus sale. The company has also made significant strides in the electric bus market, which is becoming an important revenue stream as schools and municipalities seek to implement greener transportation solutions. Strategic partnerships with various suppliers and technology firms enhance Blue Bird's product offerings and drive additional sales, while government funding for school transportation and sustainability initiatives can further bolster the company's financial performance.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Bird shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability, with a robust cash flow performance. However, the balance sheet indicates a high reliance on liabilities, which could pose financial risks.

Income Statement

Blue Bird has demonstrated a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a significant increase in total revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved over the years, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and profitability. However, the EBIT margin has experienced fluctuations, suggesting potential volatility in operating expenses.

Balance Sheet

The company has shown improvement in its debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting a more balanced capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) has increased significantly, indicating better utilization of equity investments. However, the equity ratio remains low, highlighting a higher reliance on liabilities, which could pose financial risks.

Cash Flow

Blue Bird's cash flow performance is strong, with consistent free cash flow generation and a positive free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, fluctuations in investing and financing cash flows indicate potential volatility in investment activities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.42B	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M	879.22M
Gross Profit	276.70M	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M	96.20M
EBITDA	167.60M	152.34M	60.92M	-23.23M	21.95M	37.14M
Net Income	115.89M	105.55M	23.81M	-41.60M	-787.00K	8.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	575.45M	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M	317.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	173.07M	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M	44.51M
Total Debt	91.49M	95.97M	131.91M	172.33M	215.29M	181.26M
Total Liabilities	353.60M	365.33M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M	370.64M
Stockholders Equity	221.85M	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M	-53.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	152.13M	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M	-15.51M
Operating Cash Flow	166.45M	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M	3.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-24.74M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M	-18.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-57.05M	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M	-11.11M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 58.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.05, above the 50-day MA of 49.81, and above the 200-day MA of 40.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLBD	75 Outperform	$1.87B	16.63	64.54%	―	9.31%	17.38%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.75B	15.57	7.24%	2.01%	2.80%	-14.32%
LVWR	54 Neutral	$721.23M	―	-70.02%	―	-31.27%	13.28%
EVTV	46 Neutral	$8.58M	―	-189.10%	―	2.97%	-11.17%
WKHS	45 Neutral	$19.37M	―	-201.87%	―	11.73%	74.79%
FFAI	45 Neutral	$265.76M	―	-320.23%	―	-43.10%	98.55%
CENN	40 Neutral	$26.75M	―	-31.82%	―	7.86%	-22.19%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird Announces $100 Million Share Buyback Plan

On August 5, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program for up to $100 million of its common stock, set to run until January 1, 2028. This initiative allows the company to buy back shares through various methods, with the flexibility to adjust or terminate the program as needed, potentially impacting the company’s stock value and shareholder returns.

Blue Bird Announces Record Q3 Results and Share Buyback

On August 6, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 third quarter results, reporting record net sales of $398 million and a GAAP net income of $36 million. The company exceeded its third-quarter guidance and raised its full-year financial outlook, with an adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $210 million. Blue Bird also announced a $100 million share buy-back program, reflecting its strong market position and commitment to shareholder value. The company highlighted its successful expansion in the electric bus market, with a record 271 electric buses delivered in the quarter and a robust backlog of 1,200 EV buses, supporting its 2025 sales targets.