Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.93B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 478.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 9.87%
• EPS Growth: 22.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,945
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 1.00
• Shares Outstanding: 31,591,902
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 552,013
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 478,648
• PEG Ratio: 0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.14
• 1Y Price Target: $66.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.52B

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $69.00 ▲(14.01% Upside)

BLBD scores well primarily on sustained financial improvement (profitability, cash generation, and reduced leverage) and constructive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The latest earnings call further supports the score with raised EBITDA guidance and strong backlog/liquidity, while moderate valuation (P/E ~14.5 with no dividend) and tariff/cost/EV-timing risks keep the score from the high-80s/90s.

Positive Factors

Profitability Turnaround

Multi-year margin expansion and a return to positive net margins signal durable improvements in pricing, mix, and cost control. Sustained higher gross and net margins increase retained earnings and support reinvestment in product programs and capacity without relying on external capital.

Strong Cash Generation & Liquidity

Robust operating and free cash flow alongside sizeable liquidity provide funding for capex, share repurchases, and debt reduction. Predictable cash generation supports strategic investments (new plant, automation) and reduces refinancing vulnerability across business cycles.

Strategic Market & Product Consolidation

Acquiring full ownership of Micro Bird broadens Blue Bird’s product portfolio and Buy America‑compliant shuttle exposure, adds a manufacturing site, and consolidates go-to-market scale. This structural move increases addressable market and operational control for long‑term EV and non‑EV growth.

Negative Factors

Tariff Volatility & Sourcing Risk

Unpredictable tariffs and shifting country designations raise procurement and input‑cost uncertainty, making margin forecasting difficult. Over time this forces either price pass‑through that can depress demand or margin erosion if competitive constraints limit pricing flexibility.

EV Delivery & Infrastructure Delays

Infrastructure and chassis timing delays slow realization of EV revenues and associated margins, hindering scale and delaying payback on EV investments. Prolonged timing mismatches can compress cash conversion and postpone expected unit‑economies improvements from EV volume.

Historic Capital Structure Fragility

While leverage has improved materially, the company’s recent history of very thin or negative equity shows vulnerability to earnings shocks. A downturn or large working‑capital swing could quickly reverse capital strength, constraining strategic optionality and raising refinancing risk.

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Bird generates revenue primarily through the sale of its school buses to school districts, private schools, and other educational institutions. The company has a diverse revenue model that includes the sale of new buses, parts and service for existing buses, and aftermarket support. Key revenue streams include direct sales of vehicles, which can be customized to meet specific needs, and ongoing maintenance contracts that provide a steady income source. Additionally, partnerships with government agencies and educational organizations help secure contracts and funding for bus purchases, particularly for electric and environmentally friendly models, which are increasingly in demand due to regulatory changes and sustainability initiatives. The company also benefits from financing options offered to customers, enhancing their ability to purchase new vehicles.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong turnaround: revenue up materially since 2021, gross margin expanded to ~20.5% TTM, and net margin improved to ~8.6% TTM. Debt has fallen sharply and equity rebuilt, while operating cash flow (~$186M TTM) and free cash flow (~$177M TTM) are strong. Offsets include historically fragile capitalization and lumpy growth/cash conversion that could reappear in a downturn.

Income Statement

BLBD shows a strong multi-year profitability turnaround. Revenue rose to $1.50B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from $684M in 2021, while margins expanded meaningfully (gross margin ~20.5% TTM vs ~10.5% in 2021). Net margin improved to ~8.6% TTM from losses in 2021–2022, indicating better pricing, mix, and/or cost control. The main offset is volatility in growth rates across years (including a sharp slowdown in the latest annual period vs prior high-growth years), which adds cyclicality risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and capitalization have improved substantially versus earlier years. Total debt declined from ~$221M (2021) to ~$89M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and debt relative to equity improved from extremely stressed levels (including negative/near-zero equity in 2021–2022) to a more reasonable ~0.38 in the latest periods. Equity has rebuilt to ~$271M TTM, supporting a healthier balance sheet. Still, the company’s history of very thin/negative equity and high leverage in 2021–2022 suggests the capital structure can deteriorate quickly in a downturn, even though current positioning is much better.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and supportive of the earnings recovery. Operating cash flow is strong at ~$186M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and free cash flow is also high at ~$177M, with free cash flow broadly tracking net income (free cash flow is ~92% of net income TTM). A key watch-out is that cash conversion is not consistently strong (operating cash flow is well below revenue in the latest periods), and free cash flow growth is lumpy year to year, reflecting working-capital and cycle sensitivity.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50B	1.48B	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M
Gross Profit	314.43M	303.51M	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M
EBITDA	194.40M	192.35M	152.34M	59.80M	-24.33M	21.15M
Net Income	129.75M	127.72M	105.55M	23.81M	-45.76M	-289.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	642.34M	625.25M	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	241.74M	229.31M	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M
Total Debt	89.15M	90.32M	95.97M	131.91M	174.48M	220.82M
Total Liabilities	370.97M	369.84M	365.33M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M
Stockholders Equity	271.37M	255.41M	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	162.64M	153.34M	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M
Operating Cash Flow	186.38M	176.21M	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-24.43M	-23.87M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-56.33M	-50.72M	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 60.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.25, above the 50-day MA of 51.51, and above the 200-day MA of 49.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLBD	81 Outperform	$1.93B	15.26	57.53%	―	9.87%	22.67%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
HMC	63 Neutral	$41.68B	12.48	4.11%	4.19%	0.32%	-25.51%
GM	57 Neutral	$75.63B	25.60	4.34%	0.69%	-1.29%	-49.96%
F	56 Neutral	$55.25B	-7.19	-20.26%	5.64%	3.75%	33.37%
RIVN	50 Neutral	$20.04B	-5.09	-65.55%	―	28.21%	44.43%
LCID	47 Neutral	$3.18B	-0.91	-61.12%	―	45.86%	22.13%

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Blue Bird to Acquire Full Ownership of Micro Bird

On Feb. 15, 2026, Blue Bird agreed to acquire Girardin Group’s 50% stake in their Micro Bird joint venture for approximately $200 million, paying 30% in cash and 70% in equity, which will give Blue Bird full ownership of the business. The deal, expected to close in the first half of 2026 subject to conditions and approvals, also includes purchase of Micro Bird’s Plattsburgh, N.Y., manufacturing facility and a five-year non-compete from the sellers in bus manufacturing.

By consolidating Micro Bird, Blue Bird plans to unify its operations under one brand and team, enabling what it calls the broadest product portfolio of Type A, C and D school, multi-purpose, and commercial buses with diesel, gasoline, propane and electric powertrains. The transaction significantly expands Blue Bird’s addressable market in Buy America–compliant shuttle buses, and the company intends to add longtime partner executive Steve Girardin to its board as a Class III director, aligning governance with the enlarged North American bus platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Buy with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.

Blue Bird Raises 2026 Outlook After Strong Q1 Results

On February 4, 2026, Blue Bird reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter results for the period ended December 27, 2025, posting net sales of $333.1 million, up 6.1% year over year, and GAAP net income of $30.8 million, with diluted EPS of $0.94. The company delivered 2,135 buses and achieved record first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $50.1 million, representing a 15% margin, driven primarily by pricing actions and favorable customer and product mix that offset higher procurement costs linked to tariffs, while parts revenue dipped slightly. Blue Bird highlighted its growing presence in alternative-powered school buses, delivering 121 electric buses in the quarter and ending with a firm order backlog of more than 850 EV buses, supporting its 2026 EV sales targets. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $225 million and reaffirmed net revenue guidance of about $1.5 billion, while reiterating a longer-term outlook of roughly $2 billion in revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 16%, signaling confidence in sustained profitable growth and reinforcing its positioning as a leader in low- and zero-emission school transportation.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.

Blue Bird Announces Board Resignation Amid Planned Transition

On December 24, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced that former President and CEO Phil Horlock, who has served as a Class III director, resigned from the company’s board of directors with immediate effect, a move the company said was not due to any disagreement over its operations, policies or practices. In a December 29, 2025 statement, Blue Bird highlighted Horlock’s more than 12-year tenure as CEO, during which he led the company through significant growth and operational improvements, and noted that after handing over the CEO role to John Wyskiel nearly a year earlier, Horlock continued to provide strategic guidance that helped position the school bus maker for continued success, underscoring a planned and orderly leadership transition that appears supportive of continuity for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.

Blue Bird Reports Record Sales and Income for Q4 2025

On November 24, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation reported its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and full-year financial results, achieving record net sales of $1.48 billion and a GAAP net income of $128 million. The company sold 9,409 buses, including a record 901 electric-powered buses, and reaffirmed its FY2026 guidance with expectations of continued profitable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLBD) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Bird stock, see the BLBD Stock Forecast page.