Lumen Technologies (LUMN)
NYSE:LUMN
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Lumen Technologies
(NYSE:LUMN)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
â–²(28.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score reflects weak underlying profitability and a still-risky financial profile despite improved cash flow, which is the largest constraint. Offsetting this, technicals are strongly positive and the latest earnings call provided a meaningful free-cash-flow guidance upgrade alongside balance-sheet improvement, but valuation remains hard to justify with negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Sustained OCF (~$5.0B TTM) and a return to positive free cash flow (~$447M TTM) provide durable internal funding to service debt, support necessary capex and finance strategic deals. This reduces reliance on external capital and underpins the multi‑quarter transformation plan.
Negative Factors
Persistent revenue declines and losses
Multi-year top‑line contraction and negative operating/net margins indicate underlying commercial pressure in legacy and mass markets. Continued losses limit reinvestment capacity, strain equity during downturns, and make long‑term recovery reliant on sustaining cash flow improvement and successful product shifts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Sustained OCF (~$5.0B TTM) and a return to positive free cash flow (~$447M TTM) provide durable internal funding to service debt, support necessary capex and finance strategic deals. This reduces reliance on external capital and underpins the multi‑quarter transformation plan.
Read all positive factors
Lumen Technologies (LUMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth-6.78%
EPS Growth-452.12%
CountryUS
Employees24,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.74
Shares Outstanding1,030,311,000
10 Day Avg. Volume15,018,337
30 Day Avg. Volume12,519,799
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-6.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio20.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.17Price Target Upside-4.71% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.01B
Lumen Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lumen Technologies, Inc., a facilities-based technology and communications company, provides various integrated products and services under the Lumen, Quantum Fiber, and CenturyLink brands to business and residential customers in the United States...
How the Company Makes Money
Lumen primarily makes money by selling recurring connectivity and network services, typically under monthly service arrangements and longer-term contracts to enterprise, government, and wholesale customers, and by providing consumer broadband and ...
Lumen Technologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presented a constructive tone: leadership highlighted meaningful operational and strategic progress (strong NaaS adoption, balance sheet improvement, cloud partnerships, ERP implementation, and the Alkira acquisition) while acknowledging near-term financial headwinds (YoY revenue and EBITDA declines, modest digital revenue, PCF milestone timing and special-item volatility). Management emphasized that transformation is on track, balance sheet strength enables strategic M&A, and Alkira should accelerate the shift to higher-quality digital revenue, supporting a forward-looking positive outlook despite short-term variability.Positive Updates
Revenue and Consensus Beat
Total revenue was in line with company expectations and ahead of Street consensus; total business revenue was $2.44 billion with strategic revenue representing 51% of total (up from 49% in prior quarter), reflecting an improving revenue mix.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Declines
Total business revenue declined 3.2% year-over-year to $2.44 billion; total business was down 2.8% YoY and North American enterprise revenue was down 0.8% YoY, indicating continued legacy revenue pressure despite improving mix.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Consensus Beat
Total revenue was in line with company expectations and ahead of Street consensus; total business revenue was $2.44 billion with strategic revenue representing 51% of total (up from 49% in prior quarter), reflecting an improving revenue mix.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 free cash flow guidance from a prior $1.2–$1.4 billion range to $1.9–$2.1 billion after reclassifying roughly $729 million of fiber‑to‑the‑home proceeds as operating cash; Q1 free cash flow was $756 million (excluding special items) and the company received about $870 million of PCF cash. They said they remain on track to meet full‑year guidance, reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA (ex special items) of $849 million (vs. ~$929 million a year ago) with special items of –$430 million (including a $596 million one‑time gain on the fiber sale), total business revenue of $2.44 billion (down 3.2% YoY), strategic revenue at 51% of total, digital revenue of $37 million, and PCF revenue of $78 million (including a non‑recurring $32 million milestone). Q1 CapEx (ex special items) was about $859 million (including ~$161 million of PCF CapEx); the balance sheet actions reduced leverage to below 4x, cut annual interest expense by nearly $300 million, refinanced the revolver with a new $825 million facility, and management expects the $475 million Alkira acquisition (planned to close in Q3, financed with cash) to be immaterial near term and accretive as the platform scales, with potential aggregate CapEx reductions of $100–$200 million in the coming years.Lumen Technologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.12B | 12.40B | 13.11B | 14.56B | 17.48B | 19.69B |
| Gross Profit | 5.73B | 5.76B | 6.41B | 7.41B | 9.61B | 11.20B |
| EBITDA | 1.57B | 1.32B | 4.10B | -6.09B | 3.58B | 8.52B |
| Net Income | -1.74B | -1.74B | -55.00M | -10.30B | -1.55B | 2.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 30.62B | 34.34B | 33.50B | 34.02B | 45.61B | 57.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.63B | 1.00B | 1.89B | 2.23B | 1.25B | 354.00M |
| Total Debt | 13.25B | 17.71B | 19.12B | 21.30B | 22.00B | 31.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.98B | 35.46B | 33.03B | 33.60B | 35.24B | 46.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.64B | -1.12B | 464.00M | 417.00M | 10.37B | 11.84B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 447.00M | 371.00M | 1.10B | -940.00M | 1.72B | 3.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.97B | 4.74B | 4.33B | 2.16B | 4.74B | 6.50B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 514.00M | -4.30B | -2.83B | -1.20B | 5.48B | -2.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.76B | -1.32B | -1.85B | -18.00M | -9.31B | -3.81B |
Lumen Technologies Technical Analysis
Positive
8.57
Price Trends
7.21
Positive
7.73
Positive
6.91
Positive
Market Momentum
0.35
Negative
70.01
Negative
91.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.23, above the 50-day MA of 7.21, and above the 200-day MA of 6.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.01 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LUMN.
Lumen Technologies Risk Analysis
Lumen Technologies disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lumen Technologies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lumen Technologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $4.36B | 7.64 | 24.22% | 7.78% | 0.82% | -9.44% | |
63 Neutral | $5.41B | -42.68 | -2.67% | 0.40% | 61.86% | -115.00% | |
61 Neutral | $4.32B | 5.59 | 15.59% | 42.91% | -71.02% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $4.31B | 8.30 | 2.69% | 0.39% | -56.04% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $5.24B | 549.75 | 7.27% | 5.57% | 18.57% | 5.36% | |
58 Neutral | $10.35B | -8.68 | -79.42% | ― | -6.78% | -452.12% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
LUMN
Lumen Technologies
10.05
6.07
152.51%
PHI
PLDT
19.26
-2.87
-12.96%
TEO
Telecom Argentina
11.82
0.72
6.48%
TKC
Turkcell Iletisim
6.05
-0.16
-2.62%
AD
Array Digital Infrastructure
50.02
14.61
41.26%
TDS
Telephone & Data Systems
40.50
6.01
17.41%
Lumen Technologies Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Refinances Level 3 Term Loan Facilities
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Level 3 Financing refinanced all outstanding secured term B-4 loan facilities and executed a third amendment to its March 22, 2024 credit agreement, repricing its term loan facility and enabling an administrative agent transition ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Extends Qwest Note Exchange Offer Deadlines
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Lumen Technologies and its wholly owned subsidiary Qwest Corporation announced an extension of the early participation date and withdrawal deadline for their ongoing exchange offers involving Qwest’s 6.5% Notes due 2056 and ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Announces New $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Lumen Technologies, Inc. announced that its subsidiary Level 3 Financing, Inc. planned a $1 billion private offering of Senior Notes due 2037 and, alongside Lumen and Qwest Capital Funding, Inc., commenced cash tender offers for a ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Lumen Reports Q1 Results and Advances Alkira Acquisition
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Lumen Technologies reported first-quarter 2026 results showing total revenue of $2.899 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $849 million excluding special items, with net loss essentially flat year over year at $200 million while free...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Lumen Extends Qwest Note Exchange Offer Deadlines
Neutral
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Lumen Technologies and its wholly owned subsidiary Qwest Corporation announced they had extended the early participation date and withdrawal deadline for their previously launched exchange offers for Qwest’s 6.5% notes due 20...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Lumen Technologies Issues New Guarantees, Streamlines SEC Reporting
Neutral
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Lumen Technologies entered into supplemental indentures under which it issued senior unsecured, unconditional guarantees of Level 3 Financing’s obligations on its 6.875% first lien notes due 2033 and 7.000% first lien note...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Announces Guaranteed Note Exchange to Streamline Capital
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Lumen Technologies and its wholly owned subsidiary Qwest Corporation launched exchange offers for Qwest’s outstanding 6.5% notes due 2056 and 6.75% notes due 2057, offering new notes of the same coupon and maturity but ful...
Executive/Board Changes
Lumen Technologies Announces Chief Legal Officer Leadership Transition
Neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Lumen Technologies said that Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer Public Sector Mark Hacker will retire from the company on May 15, 2026, to pursue a vocational ministry calling, with the company emphasizing that his departure is based o...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Lumen Details Impact of Fiber Divestiture on 2025 Results
Negative
Apr 16, 2026
Lumen Technologies completed the divestiture of its Mass Markets fiber-to-the-home business in 11 states on February 2, 2026, selling the assets to an ATT subsidiary for $5.75 billion in cash, reduced to about $5.72 billion after closing adjustmen...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Establishes New Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 14, 2026, Lumen Technologies entered into a new revolving credit agreement for an $825 million unsecured facility maturing on April 14, 2029, with borrowings bearing interest at Term SOFR plus a margin or a base rate plus a margin, both s...
Executive/Board Changes
Lumen Technologies Announces Leadership Transition and New President
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Lumen Technologies announced that Board Chair T. Michael Glenn and Audit Committee Chair Hal Stanley Jones will retire from the board and not stand for re-election at the company’s 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.