Lumen Technologies (LUMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.38B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 10.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: -4.56%
• EPS Growth: 23.46%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,000
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 1,025,643,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,115,505
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,973,147
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.58
• 1Y Price Target: $8.33
• Price Target Upside: 1.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(4.04% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals—declining revenue, losses, and a highly stressed balance sheet with negative equity—partially offset by improving cash flow trends. Technical signals are mixed and do not provide a strong tailwind. The latest earnings call adds support due to better-than-expected results, cost savings, and improving enterprise/NaaS/PCF traction, but legacy revenue headwinds remain a material risk.

Positive Factors

Cash generation resilience

Strong operating cash generation and sizable FCF growth provide durable internal funding for operations and transformation. Higher OCF relative to net loss and rising FCF improves the company's ability to service debt, fund PCF/NaaS expansion, and cover restructuring costs over the medium term.

Private Connectivity & NaaS backlog

A large PCF backlog and growing NaaS traction create multi‑year, recurring revenue visibility that structurally shifts mix toward enterprise connectivity. These contracts underpin sustainable revenue streams and improve predictability versus volatile legacy mass-market lines, supporting durable growth if execution continues.

Liability management and refinancing

Active liability management and refinancing reduce interest costs and extend maturities, improving cash flow coverage and financial flexibility. By simplifying the debt stack and removing restrictive covenants, the company strengthens its ability to invest in strategic growth and manage solvency risks over the coming years.

Negative Factors

Highly stressed balance sheet

Severely negative equity and extreme leverage indicate structural solvency risk and constrain capital options. Persistent negative equity limits ability to raise unsecured capital, increases creditor scrutiny, and raises refinancing costs, which can impair long-term investment and heighten default sensitivity if cash flows weaken.

Declining revenue and negative margins

Ongoing revenue declines and deeply negative profitability signal structural challenges converting scale into sustainable earnings. Negative margins reduce reinvestment capacity, increase reliance on cost cuts or asset sales, and make the company vulnerable if growth initiatives take longer to mature than planned.

Legacy, mass market and public sector headwinds

Persistent declines in mass-market and legacy services are structural pressures that shrink the addressable base and depress margins. Public sector weakness and low fiber penetration in consumer segments limit near-term upside and force heavier reliance on enterprise wins to replace lost legacy cash flows.

Lumen Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lumen Technologies, Inc., a facilities-based technology and communications company, provides various integrated products and services under the Lumen, Quantum Fiber, and CenturyLink brands to business and residential customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets. It offers compute and application services, such as cloud services, IT solutions, unified communication and collaboration solutions, colocation and data center services, content delivery services, and managed security services; and IP and data services, including VPN data network, Ethernet, internet protocol (IP), and voice over internet protocol. The company also provides fiber infrastructure services comprising high bandwidth optical wavelength networks; and unlit optical fiber and related professional services. In addition, it offers voice and other services, including private line services, a direct circuit or channel specifically dedicated for connecting two or more organizational sites; a portfolio of traditional time division multiplexing voice services; and synchronous optical network-based Ethernet, legacy data hosting services, and conferencing services. As of December 31, 2021, the company served approximately 4.5 million broadband subscribers. The company was formerly known as CenturyLink, Inc. and changed its name to Lumen Technologies, Inc. in September 2020. Lumen Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Lumen Technologies generates revenue through multiple key streams. Primarily, the company earns money from its business solutions segment, which provides a range of services including broadband, data networking, and managed services to enterprise customers. Additionally, Lumen makes significant revenue from its consumer services, offering residential internet and voice services. The company also benefits from its focus on cloud services and cybersecurity, which are increasingly important for businesses transitioning to digital operations. Partnerships with technology providers and other telecommunications companies further enhance Lumen's capabilities and service offerings, contributing to its overall revenue. The company's extensive fiber network infrastructure allows it to provide high-speed connectivity, which is a critical factor in attracting and retaining customers across various sectors.

Lumen Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lumen Technologies is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability, high leverage, and negative equity. While the company shows some ability to generate cash flow, the overall financial health is concerning, with risks related to solvency and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Lumen Technologies has faced significant challenges in maintaining revenue growth, with a consistent decline over the past years. The TTM data shows a negative revenue growth rate of -4.5%, and the net profit margin has deteriorated to -13.0%. The EBIT margin is also negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. However, the company has managed to maintain a positive EBITDA margin, suggesting some level of operational cash flow generation.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of -15.3 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage and financial risk. The negative stockholders' equity is concerning, as it suggests potential solvency issues. Return on equity is positive in the TTM period due to negative equity, but this is not a sustainable situation. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting the company's financial instability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows some positive aspects, such as a 30.7% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.24, indicating good cash generation relative to reported losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.25, reflecting challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.69B	13.11B	14.56B	17.48B	19.69B	20.71B
Gross Profit	5.97B	6.41B	7.41B	9.61B	11.20B	11.78B
EBITDA	1.87B	4.10B	-6.09B	3.58B	8.52B	5.60B
Net Income	-1.65B	-55.00M	-10.30B	-1.55B	2.03B	-1.23B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	34.29B	33.50B	34.02B	45.61B	57.99B	59.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.40B	1.89B	2.23B	1.25B	354.00M	409.00M
Total Debt	17.95B	19.12B	21.30B	22.00B	31.17B	33.62B
Total Liabilities	35.46B	33.03B	33.60B	35.24B	46.15B	48.23B
Stockholders Equity	-1.17B	464.00M	417.00M	10.37B	11.84B	11.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.23B	1.10B	-940.00M	1.72B	3.60B	2.79B
Operating Cash Flow	4.86B	4.33B	2.16B	4.74B	6.50B	6.52B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.50B	-2.83B	-1.20B	5.48B	-2.71B	-3.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.60B	-1.85B	-18.00M	-9.31B	-3.81B	-4.25B

Lumen Technologies Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.97, below the 50-day MA of 8.63, and above the 200-day MA of 5.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LUMN.

Lumen Technologies Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PHI	77 Outperform	$4.74B	9.28	25.22%	7.78%	0.59%	8.86%
TKC	74 Outperform	$5.00B	11.92	7.60%	5.57%	19.02%	9.26%
AD	70 Outperform	$4.56B	17.80	4.11%	42.91%	-25.64%	―
TEO	61 Neutral	$5.10B	-33.18	-2.95%	0.40%	15.38%	-292.52%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
TDS	56 Neutral	$4.40B	-37.72	1.73%	0.39%	-22.79%	79.90%
LUMN	53 Neutral	$8.38B	―	―	―	-4.56%	23.46%

Lumen Technologies Corporate Events

Lumen Technologies Upsizes Senior Notes to Restructure Debt

On January 9, 2026, Level 3 Financing, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lumen Technologies, completed an upsized $650 million issuance of additional 8.500% Senior Notes due 2036, bringing the total size of this series to $1.9 billion, with proceeds primarily used to fund the purchase of existing second-lien notes tendered in recently concluded cash tender offers and to cover related interest, fees and expenses, with any remaining funds earmarked for general corporate purposes. The new senior unsecured notes, which carry guarantees from the parent and key domestic subsidiaries and include customary covenants, redemption options and change-of-control protections, are part of a broader balance-sheet restructuring that also saw, as of December 23, 2025 and January 8, 2026, the execution of supplemental indentures and consent-driven amendments that strip most restrictive covenants and collateral from several series of existing second-lien notes, signaling Lumen’s move to simplify its debt stack, increase financial flexibility and shift value from secured to unsecured creditors within its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies expands 2036 senior notes for liability management

On January 5, 2026, Lumen Technologies announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Level 3 Financing planned a private offering of additional 8.500% Senior Notes due 2036, later pricing $650 million of these notes, up from the initially targeted $600 million, as a further issuance to the $1.25 billion already sold on December 23, 2025. The proceeds are intended primarily to finance the purchase of remaining outstanding Second Lien Notes targeted in cash tender offers launched on December 8, 2025, and any excess will go to transaction costs and general corporate purposes, marking another step in Lumen’s ongoing liability management efforts that could reshape its debt profile and interest-cost structure for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies completes major upsized senior notes offering

On December 23, 2025, Level 3 Financing, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Lumen Technologies, completed an upsized $1.25 billion offering of 8.500% senior unsecured notes due 2036, governed by a new indenture that sets standard covenants, default provisions, and optional redemption features, with the notes guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by Level 3 Parent and certain material domestic subsidiaries. The company used the proceeds, together with cash on hand, to fund tender offers for existing second-lien notes and related costs, and in connection with early tender results and consent solicitations announced on December 22, 2025, it entered into supplemental indentures to strip substantially all restrictive covenants, remove certain events of default, and release collateral securing several series of second-lien notes, signaling an ongoing liability management effort that shifts portions of its capital structure from secured to effectively unsecured obligations, with implications for creditor protections and the company’s financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies Amends Tender Offers for Second-Lien Notes

On December 22, 2025, Lumen Technologies announced early results and significant amendments to its previously launched cash tender offers and consent solicitations for four series of Level 3 Financing’s Existing Second Lien Notes due 2029–2031. The company removed the former $1.5 billion aggregate cap and shifted to an “any and all” structure for these second-lien issues, allowing all notes validly tendered up to the expiration date to receive the stated total consideration, while modifying withdrawal deadlines and adding a $1.75 billion financing condition specifically for most of the 2029 Notes. As of the December 19 early tender deadline, about $2.124 billion in aggregate principal of these notes had been validly tendered and not withdrawn, with approximately $1.5 billion already accepted for purchase, indicating strong bondholder participation and underscoring Lumen’s active balance sheet management and efforts to reshape its secured debt profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies Expands Senior Notes Offering to $1.25B

On December 8, 2025, Lumen Technologies announced that its subsidiary, Level 3 Financing, planned to offer $750 million in Senior Notes due 2036 in a private offering. Concurrently, Level 3 Financing initiated cash tender offers to purchase up to $1 billion of its existing Second Lien Notes, with plans to use the proceeds from the new offering to fund these purchases and cover related expenses. The offering size was later increased to $1.25 billion, allowing Level 3 Financing to raise the aggregate purchase price to $1.5 billion. This strategic financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially improve its market position by eliminating restrictive covenants and releasing collateral on existing notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies Announces Executive Leadership Change

On December 1, 2025, Lumen Technologies announced the resignation of David Ward, their Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Product Officer, who will join Salesforce, Inc. as President and Chief Architect. James Fowler, previously an Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer at Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company, will succeed Ward effective January 5, 2026. Fowler, who has extensive experience from his previous roles at General Electric and AT&T, resigned from Lumen’s Board to assume this new role, indicating a strategic leadership transition for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.

Lumen Technologies Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

On October 30, 2025, Lumen Technologies reported strong third-quarter results, highlighting significant achievements in its transformation journey. The company exceeded expectations in revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow, while also signing an additional $1 billion in PCF deals, bringing the total to over $10 billion. Despite a reported net loss of $621 million for the quarter, Lumen’s strategic focus on enterprise growth and digital innovation is positioning it for sustainable growth, with key milestones such as debt refinancing and successful ERP implementation contributing to its progress.

The most recent analyst rating on (LUMN) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumen Technologies stock, see the LUMN Stock Forecast page.