tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Lumen Technologies (LUMN)
NYSE:LUMN

Lumen Technologies (LUMN) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
5,373 Followers

Top Page

LU

Lumen Technologies

(NYSE:LUMN)

49Neutral
Lumen Technologies' stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and high leverage. While recent earnings call data suggests improvements and strategic growth initiatives, these are counterbalanced by ongoing profitability issues and valuation concerns. Technical indicators further suggest caution, with the stock in a bearish trend. Investors should weigh the potential for strategic growth against the backdrop of financial instability.
Positive Factors
Earnings and Growth
Lumen is set to begin growing consolidated EBITDA significantly on an annual basis in 2026.
Potential Sale of Consumer Fiber Operations
AT&T and possibly its JV partner Gigapower are seen as top bidders for Lumen's consumer fiber operations, which would be positive as a buyer is expected to build at a faster pace.
Service Innovations
New service innovations that bypass costly cross-connects could be unmatched and game-changing for customers.
Negative Factors
Business Segment Improvement
Lumen needs to improve Business segment financials, which is likely to take time.
Financial Challenges
The company faces persistent legacy revenue declines, high leverage, potentially disruptive transformation investments, and rising costs associated with PCF related network builds.
Stock Valuation
The stock reacted negatively to the news because the valuation seemed low compared to previous reports.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Lumen Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLumen Technologies, Inc., a facilities-based technology and communications company, provides various integrated products and services under the Lumen, Quantum Fiber, and CenturyLink brands to business and residential customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets. It offers compute and application services, such as cloud services, IT solutions, unified communication and collaboration solutions, colocation and data center services, content delivery services, and managed security services; and IP and data services, including VPN data network, Ethernet, internet protocol (IP), and voice over internet protocol. The company also provides fiber infrastructure services comprising high bandwidth optical wavelength networks; and unlit optical fiber and related professional services. In addition, it offers voice and other services, including private line services, a direct circuit or channel specifically dedicated for connecting two or more organizational sites; a portfolio of traditional time division multiplexing voice services; and synchronous optical network-based Ethernet, legacy data hosting services, and conferencing services. As of December 31, 2021, the company served approximately 4.5 million broadband subscribers. The company was formerly known as CenturyLink, Inc. and changed its name to Lumen Technologies, Inc. in September 2020. Lumen Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyLumen Technologies generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its business and mass markets segments. The business segment includes services such as network connectivity, hybrid IT solutions, cloud and managed services, and voice and collaboration tools, which are provided to enterprise customers, government agencies, and wholesale clients. The mass markets segment focuses on delivering broadband, voice, and other services to residential customers. Lumen benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with technology companies to enhance its service offerings. Additionally, the company capitalizes on its extensive fiber network and digital infrastructure to support data-intensive applications, which is a significant factor contributing to its earnings.

Lumen Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lumen Technologies faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability issues, reflected in negative net income and a high debt-to-equity ratio. However, there are signs of improved operating efficiency and positive cash flow ratios, suggesting some resilience amidst financial difficulties.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Lumen Technologies has experienced declining revenue over the years, with TTM revenue of $13.0 billion compared to $20.7 billion in 2020. The gross profit margin for TTM is approximately 55.43%, which is strong, but the net profit margin is negative due to a net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved in the TTM compared to 2023's negative figures, indicating some recovery in operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
The company's balance sheet shows high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 62.05 in TTM. Stockholders' equity has significantly decreased over time, impacting the equity ratio, which stands at about 0.86% for TTM, indicating a highly leveraged financial structure with potential solvency risks.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Lumen's cash flow analysis reveals a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio, suggesting effective cash generation despite net losses. The free cash flow growth is negative compared to prior years, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some level of cash flow stability despite financial challenges.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
13.11B14.56B17.48B19.69B20.71B
Gross Profit
6.41B7.41B9.61B11.20B11.78B
EBIT
460.00M-9.58B3.54B4.29B3.53B
EBITDA
4.10B-6.09B3.58B8.52B5.90B
Net Income Common Stockholders
-55.00M-10.30B-1.55B2.03B-1.23B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.89B2.23B1.25B354.00M406.00M
Total Assets
33.50B34.02B45.58B57.99B59.39B
Total Debt
18.16B20.26B20.92B29.37B32.22B
Net Debt
16.27B18.02B19.66B29.01B31.81B
Total Liabilities
33.03B33.60B35.14B46.15B48.23B
Stockholders Equity
464.00M417.00M10.44B11.84B11.16B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.10B-940.00M1.72B3.60B2.79B
Operating Cash Flow
4.33B2.16B4.74B6.50B6.52B
Investing Cash Flow
-2.83B-1.20B5.48B-2.71B-3.56B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.85B-18.00M-9.31B-3.81B-4.25B

Lumen Technologies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price3.78
Price Trends
50DMA
4.13
Negative
100DMA
4.81
Negative
200DMA
5.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.15
Negative
RSI
52.85
Neutral
STOCH
83.43
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUMN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.42, below the 50-day MA of 4.13, and below the 200-day MA of 5.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LUMN.

Lumen Technologies Risk Analysis

Lumen Technologies disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lumen Technologies reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lumen Technologies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
PHPHI
78
Outperform
$5.06B9.0629.05%5.33%-0.15%17.96%
77
Outperform
$5.76B22.667.13%5.17%2.53%
TKTKC
75
Outperform
$5.09B11.496.76%2.61%8.78%-21.85%
TETEO
64
Neutral
$4.20B4.3023.27%-26.74%
59
Neutral
$13.76B7.64-1.94%3.86%2.38%-36.56%
TDTDS
58
Neutral
$4.04B-0.54%0.43%-3.80%83.27%
49
Neutral
$3.61B-12.49%-9.95%99.47%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LUMN
Lumen Technologies
3.78
2.46
186.36%
PHI
PLDT
23.61
0.76
3.33%
TEO
Telecom Argentina
9.18
0.62
7.24%
TKC
Turkcell Iletisim
5.87
-0.34
-5.48%
TIGO
Millicom International Cellular SA
33.47
12.94
63.03%
TDS
Telephone & Data Systems
34.31
18.70
119.80%

Lumen Technologies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 7.39%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, operational improvements, and strategic initiatives in AI and cloud, indicating a positive outlook. However, there were challenges in legacy product revenues and overall revenue decline, balancing the sentiment.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Lumen Technologies beat consensus for revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow. North American business Grow revenue increased by 7.9% year-over-year, and Wave's revenue also grew year-over-year.
Operational Excellence
Material progress was made in upgrading systems, simplifying product portfolio, unifying networks, and improving execution. The company aims to generate at least $250 million in savings exiting 2025 and $1 billion exiting 2027.
AI and Cloud Initiatives
Continued focus on building the backbone for AI with a significant expansion of the fiber network and partnerships like the one with Google Cloud, providing direct fiber access to customer data centers.
Balance Sheet Improvements
Refinanced $2.4 billion in term loans, reducing annual interest expense by approximately $55 million and extending the loan maturity to 2032. This was supported by recent credit rating upgrades.
Mass Market Fiber Growth
Fiber broadband revenue grew 22.9% year-over-year, and Lumen added 101,000 fiber-enabled homes and 39,000 quantum fiber customers in Q1.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Total reported revenue declined by 3.3% to $3.182 billion. Business segment revenue declined by 2.6% to $2.524 billion, and the mass market segment revenue declined by 5.9% to $658 million.
Legacy Product Challenges
Nurture products revenue decreased 16.6% year-over-year, and Harvest product revenue decreased 9.8% year-over-year, primarily impacted by declines in TDM-based voice.
Mixed Public Sector Performance
While public sector revenue grew 14.7% year-over-year, there were mentions of potential revenue drag due to the rerating in the wholesale TDM space.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Lumen Technologies reported strong financial performance, exceeding consensus expectations for revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow. North American business growth was highlighted with a 7.9% year-over-year increase in Grow revenue, although total North American business revenue saw a slight decline of 2.2% year-over-year, significantly better than industry peers. The company also noted an over 8% improvement in absolute dollar disconnects compared to the first quarter of 2024, contributing to revenue and EBITDA performance. Lumen is on track to achieve $250 million in savings by the end of 2025 and $1 billion by 2027, driven by modernization and simplification initiatives, including the construction of $8.5 billion in private connectivity fabric projects. The company continues to innovate by leveraging its expansive fiber network and new digital platform, aiming to disrupt traditional cloud connect models and addressing a growing $15 billion total addressable market.

Lumen Technologies Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lumen Technologies Partners with Google for Fiber Access
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Lumen Technologies reported its first quarter 2025 results, highlighting progress in key areas such as operational excellence, AI backbone development, and telecom cloudification. Despite a net loss of $201 million, the company showed growth in North American business revenue and signed a significant partnership with Google for direct fiber access to Google Cloud. The adoption of Network-as-a-Service (NaaS) ports increased, supporting a shift towards a consumption-based model.

Spark’s Take on LUMN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, LUMN is a Neutral.

Lumen Technologies’ stock score of 47 reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, high leverage, and negative net income. Technical analysis supports a bearish outlook with the stock trading below major moving averages. Valuation concerns, such as a negative P/E ratio, further weigh down the score. Despite these issues, strategic initiatives and improvements highlighted in the earnings call provide some optimism for future recovery.

To see Spark’s full report on LUMN stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lumen Technologies Reports Financial Improvement in 2024
Positive
Feb 4, 2025

For the fourth quarter and full year 2024, Lumen Technologies reported a notable improvement in financial performance, with a net income of $85 million in Q4 2024 compared to a significant net loss in the same period in 2023. The company also strengthened its balance sheet by reducing debt, increasing liquidity, and enhancing customer satisfaction across all segments. Lumen continued to make strategic advancements in building an AI backbone and expanding its network-as-a-service offerings, setting a strong foundation for future growth. Despite the improvements, the company reported a full-year net loss of $55 million, a substantial recovery from the previous year’s loss, attributed mainly to non-cash goodwill impairment charges.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.