Lumen Technologies (LUMN)
NYSE:LUMN
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Lumen Technologies
(NYSE:LUMN)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(4.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/15/26
The score is held back primarily by weak underlying financial performance (declining revenue, losses, and prior balance-sheet strain), partially offset by a constructive earnings outlook and balance-sheet improvement highlighted on the latest call. Technicals are moderately supportive with price above major moving averages, while valuation remains difficult to assess due to negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large prefunded PCF pipeline
A roughly $13B prefunded PCF pipeline with ~90% cash upfront provides durable near-term liquidity and funds fiber buildouts without immediate incremental debt. This supports network expansion, enterprise product rollout and reduces capital intensity versus fully self-funded builds.
Negative Factors
Persistent multi-year revenue decline
A multi-year revenue contraction erodes scale economics and reduces leverage for fixed-network costs. Declining top-line from legacy voice and some wholesale segments compresses gross margins and makes achieving sustained profit recovery harder, delaying structural revenue inflection until several years out.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large prefunded PCF pipeline
A roughly $13B prefunded PCF pipeline with ~90% cash upfront provides durable near-term liquidity and funds fiber buildouts without immediate incremental debt. This supports network expansion, enterprise product rollout and reduces capital intensity versus fully self-funded builds.
Read all positive factors
Lumen Technologies (LUMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.55B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)10.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-4.56%
EPS Growth23.46%
CountryUS
Employees24,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding1,024,369,600
10 Day Avg. Volume11,041,266
30 Day Avg. Volume10,982,904
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-6.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio20.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.66Price Target Upside14.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.92B
Lumen Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lumen Technologies, Inc., a facilities-based technology and communications company, provides various integrated products and services under the Lumen, Quantum Fiber, and CenturyLink brands to business and residential customers in the United States...
How the Company Makes Money
Lumen primarily makes money by selling recurring connectivity and network services, typically under monthly service arrangements and longer-term contracts to enterprise, government, and wholesale customers, and by providing consumer broadband and ...
Lumen Technologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a major strategic and financial pivot: closing the AT&T sale materially strengthens the balance sheet (debt reduction, lower interest expense), reduces capital intensity, and funds investments in PCF and digital/network modernization. Adoption metrics, a large prefunded PCF pipeline (~$13B) and guidance for EBITDA inflection and positive free cash flow in 2026 are encouraging. Offsetting risks include continued near-term revenue declines, a sizable YoY EBITDA drop in 2025, special charges, and the multi-year timing of PCF revenue recognition that delays some cash-to-revenue conversion. Overall, the company presents a credible path to improved margins, lower capital intensity, and stronger cash generation, while near-term operating results remain pressured.Positive Updates
Closing of AT&T Transaction and Balance Sheet Strengthening
Sold fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T for $5.75B (net proceeds ~$4.8B); used proceeds to pay off $4.8B super-priority bonds and reduce total debt to under $13B. Net leverage reduced by ~1.0x to ~3.8x trailing-12-month adjusted EBITDA; annual interest expense reduced roughly $500M–$1B (management cited ~45% reduction and nearly $1B lower over 12 months).
Negative Updates
Ongoing Revenue Decline
Total reported revenue declined 8.7% year-over-year to $3.041B in Q4; business segment revenue declined 8.8% to $2.425B and mass market revenue declined 7.9% to $616M. North American business revenue (including wholesale) declined ~8.6%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Closing of AT&T Transaction and Balance Sheet Strengthening
Sold fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T for $5.75B (net proceeds ~$4.8B); used proceeds to pay off $4.8B super-priority bonds and reduce total debt to under $13B. Net leverage reduced by ~1.0x to ~3.8x trailing-12-month adjusted EBITDA; annual interest expense reduced roughly $500M–$1B (management cited ~45% reduction and nearly $1B lower over 12 months).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lumen guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $3.1–$3.3 billion (an inflection to growth in 2026), total CapEx of $3.2–$3.4 billion (roughly $1.0 billion tied to nearly $13 billion of signed PCF deals, including ~$2.5 billion announced in Q4), and free cash flow of $1.2–$1.4 billion; net cash interest expense is expected to be $650–$750 million (about a $550 million midpoint reduction vs. 2025) and cash taxes a net inflow of $350–$450 million (including an anticipated ~$400 million tax refund in 2026). Guidance excludes roughly $400 million of multiyear transformation costs, the company targets $700 million of run-rate cost savings by year-end 2026 (having exited 2025 with >$400 million and aiming for $1.0 billion by 2027), and noted 2025 PCF revenue recognition of $116 million ($41 million in Q4). Post-close financials from the AT&T FTTx sale ($5.75 billion gross, ~$4.8 billion net proceeds) reduced debt to under $13 billion, cut net leverage to ~3.8x TTM adjusted EBITDA, and materially lowered annual interest expense (roughly $500 million year-over-year and nearly $1 billion over the last 12 months); management reiterated targets to return business revenue to growth in 2028 and total revenue in 2029.Lumen Technologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.40B | 13.11B | 14.56B | 17.48B | 19.69B |
| Gross Profit | 3.02B | 6.41B | 7.41B | 9.61B | 11.20B |
| EBITDA | 1.32B | 4.10B | -6.09B | 3.58B | 8.52B |
| Net Income | -1.74B | -55.00M | -10.30B | -1.55B | 2.03B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 34.34B | 33.50B | 34.02B | 45.61B | 57.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.00B | 1.89B | 2.23B | 1.25B | 354.00M |
| Total Debt | 17.71B | 19.12B | 21.30B | 22.00B | 31.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.46B | 33.03B | 33.60B | 35.24B | 46.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.12B | 464.00M | 417.00M | 10.37B | 11.84B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 371.00M | 1.10B | -940.00M | 1.72B | 3.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.74B | 4.33B | 2.16B | 4.74B | 6.50B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.30B | -2.83B | -1.20B | 5.48B | -2.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.32B | -1.85B | -18.00M | -9.31B | -3.81B |
Lumen Technologies Technical Analysis
Negative
6.67
Price Trends
7.53
Negative
7.98
Negative
6.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
43.75
Neutral
58.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.72, below the 50-day MA of 7.53, and below the 200-day MA of 6.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LUMN.
Lumen Technologies Risk Analysis
Lumen Technologies disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lumen Technologies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lumen Technologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.13B | 10.60 | 7.24% | 5.57% | 19.02% | 9.26% | |
64 Neutral | $4.62B | 9.02 | 24.66% | 7.78% | 0.59% | 8.86% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $5.02B | -36.64 | -2.67% | 0.40% | 15.38% | -292.52% | |
56 Neutral | $4.44B | -757.27 | -0.13% | 0.39% | -22.79% | 79.90% | |
55 Neutral | $6.55B | -967.74 | 267.95% | ― | -4.56% | 23.46% | |
52 Neutral | $3.96B | 15.83 | 8.13% | 42.91% | -25.64% | ― |
* Communication Services Sector Average
LUMN
Lumen Technologies
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63.01%
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Lumen Technologies Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Lumen Technologies Announces Leadership Transition and New President
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Lumen Technologies announced that Board Chair T. Michael Glenn and Audit Committee Chair Hal Stanley Jones will retire from the board and not stand for re-election at the company’s 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Lumen Technologies Delivers Q4 Results and Deleveraging Milestone
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On Feb. 3, 2026, Lumen Technologies reported solid fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results and highlighted the completion of its $5.75 billion transaction with ATT, which reduced total debt by more than $4.8 billion, lowered net leverage below 4...
Executive/Board Changes
Lumen Technologies Appoints New Chief Revenue Officer
Neutral
Feb 3, 2026
Lumen Technologies announced a leadership change in its revenue organization, with Executive Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer Ashley Haynes-Gaspar set to leave her role and provide transition services through March 6, 2026. Effective Febru...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Sells Mass Markets Fiber, Refocuses on Enterprise
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Lumen Technologies completed the $5.75 billion cash sale of its Mass Markets consumer fiber-to-the-home business in 11 states, including the Quantum Fiber brand, to ATT. The deal transfers a network that serves more than 1 mil...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies Upsizes Senior Notes to Restructure Debt
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
On January 9, 2026, Level 3 Financing, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lumen Technologies, completed an upsized $650 million issuance of additional 8.500% Senior Notes due 2036, bringing the total size of this series to $1.9 billion, with proceeds pr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lumen Technologies expands 2036 senior notes for liability management
Positive
Jan 6, 2026
On January 5, 2026, Lumen Technologies announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Level 3 Financing planned a private offering of additional 8.500% Senior Notes due 2036, later pricing $650 million of these notes, up from the initially targeted $6...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.