Open Lending (LPRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $170.63M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 569.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.87
• Revenue Growth: -82.33%
• EPS Growth: -3365.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 205
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 118,189,445
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 624,170
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 569,024
• PEG Ratio: 0.45
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.97
• P/FCF Ratio: -56.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.93
• 1Y Price Target: $3.50
• Price Target Upside: 141.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $103.46M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(3.45% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow/profitability and bearish technicals. Offsetting factors include a significantly strengthened balance sheet and a more optimistic 2026 outlook (higher CERTs and EBITDA), with governance changes offering a modest positive catalyst.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Material deleveraging and a stronger equity base provide durable financial flexibility. Lower leverage reduces interest burden and preserves capacity for loss-protection funding, buybacks, or opportunistic investment, helping the business absorb volatility and support multi-quarter execution.

Improved Credit Performance & Guidance

Sustained vintage improvement lowers expected ultimate losses and supports more stable profit-share economics. This enhances the predictability of underwriting outcomes, underpins management’s 2026 CERT and EBITDA guidance, and materially improves the long-term margin and cash conversion profile.

Product and Channel Expansion

New subscription product and OEM channel expansion diversify revenue away from single-source fee-per-loan exposure. If adoption scales, these higher-visibility, repeatable channels can compound growth, reduce concentration risk and improve revenue durability over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Volatility

Negative operating and free cash flow in 2025 reverses prior strong cash generation and raises structural funding risk. Persistent cash volatility can force reliance on external capital, constrain loss-protection funding, and limit ability to invest in product scale or absorb underwriting drawdowns.

Execution Risk on New Initiatives

Apex One, Project Red Rocks and OEM ramps are key to the growth plan but remain nascent. Slower adoption or commercialization challenges would materially reduce certified-loan and EBITDA expansion, exposing the business to downside versus guided compounding growth and pressuring margins.

Profit-Share Timing Uncertainty

Uncertainty in when profit-share losses are recognized and when cash arrives causes persistent free-cash-flow timing volatility. That complicates capital allocation, forecasting and reserve planning, and can impair the firm’s ability to convert EBITDA into predictable liquidity over multiple quarters.

Open Lending Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Open Lending Corporation provides lending enablement and risk analytics solutions to credit unions, regional banks, and non-bank auto finance companies and captive finance companies of original equipment manufacturers in the United States. It offers Lenders Protection Program (LPP), which is a Software as a Service platform that facilitates loan decision making and automated underwriting by third-party lenders and the issuance of credit default insurance through third-party insurance providers. The company's LPP products include loan analytics, risk-based loan pricing, risk modeling, and automated decision technology for automotive lenders. Open Lending Corporation was founded in 2000 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Open Lending primarily makes money through its Lenders Protection program, which is typically embedded in near-prime auto loan originations by participating lenders. When a lender originates a loan through the program, Open Lending earns fees tied to that loan and provides (or arranges) loss protection designed to cover a portion of credit losses under specified terms. This model links revenue to the volume of loans enrolled in the program and the fee economics per loan (often driven by loan balance and/or program pricing). A key factor in the business is the network of relationships with banks and credit unions (as loan originators) and the use of insurance/reinsurance or other risk-transfer structures to support the loss protection component; if specific counterparties, fee schedules, or exact contractual structures are not publicly available, they are null.

Open Lending Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: the balance sheet improved materially with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.13) versus 2024, but profitability remains negative and volatile, and 2025 operating/free cash flow turned negative—raising near-term execution and funding-risk concerns despite the revenue/margin rebound.

Income Statement

Results show a sharp profitability swing and elevated volatility. Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (annual revenue up materially versus 2024), and gross margin recovered to a healthy level, but the company remained unprofitable with a modest net loss in 2025. The prior year (2024) was extremely weak with a large net loss and heavily negative margins, while 2021–2023 showed strong profitability and high margins. Overall, the income statement reflects a business that can generate strong margins, but with uneven revenue trajectory and inconsistent bottom-line performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet improved meaningfully in 2025, with low leverage (debt-to-equity around 0.13) and a solid equity base. This is a notable turnaround from 2024, when leverage was high (debt-to-equity above 1.8). Total assets are sizable relative to equity, and the main weakness is that recent losses are pressuring returns on shareholder capital (negative return on equity in 2024 and 2025). Overall financial flexibility looks better today, but profitability needs to stabilize to protect capital strength.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated in 2025, with negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow, reversing the strong cash production seen in 2021–2024. While 2024 still produced positive operating and free cash flow despite reported losses, the latest year shows cash burn, which raises execution risk if it persists. The key strength is the company’s demonstrated ability to generate substantial free cash flow in earlier years, but near-term cash flow momentum is currently unfavorable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Mar 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	93.22M	24.02M	117.46M	179.59M	215.66M
Gross Profit	71.66M	169.00K	95.18M	159.63M	197.03M
EBITDA	-5.01M	-51.61M	41.30M	100.29M	197.55M
Net Income	-4.24M	-135.01M	22.07M	66.62M	146.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	236.68M	296.37M	374.04M	379.63M	318.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	176.61M	243.16M	240.21M	204.45M	116.45M
Total Debt	9.88M	143.77M	148.13M	152.08M	151.40M
Total Liabilities	161.72M	218.28M	168.46M	166.81M	159.84M
Stockholders Equity	74.96M	78.09M	205.58M	212.82M	158.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.25M	17.43M	80.48M	106.81M	93.17M
Operating Cash Flow	-3.19M	17.60M	82.66M	107.43M	95.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.03M	-3.90M	-2.18M	-624.00K	-1.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-61.48M	-6.45M	-42.33M	-17.80M	-77.81M

Open Lending Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.37, below the 50-day MA of 1.64, and below the 200-day MA of 1.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPRO.

Open Lending Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
MFIN	67 Neutral	$220.01M	5.44	10.79%	4.44%	15.52%	2.05%
OPRT	64 Neutral	$189.57M	10.05	6.66%	―	-5.29%	―
RM	62 Neutral	$290.18M	8.66	12.12%	2.99%	9.63%	77.14%
CPSS	59 Neutral	$166.19M	10.57	6.58%	―	16.94%	-10.46%
ANTA	59 Neutral	$174.98M	11.11	―	―	―	―
LPRO	51 Neutral	$170.63M	-43.40	-102.53%	―	-82.33%	-3365.80%

Open Lending Corporate Events

Open Lending Reaches Activist Cooperation, Plans Board Changes

On March 6, 2026, Open Lending Corporation entered into a cooperation agreement with Palogic Value Management and related entities, under which the company will add Palogic-backed nominee William Dabbs Cavin to its slate for election as a Class III director at the 2026 annual meeting and will urge shareholders to support his election. Open Lending also agreed to support Palogic’s previously submitted non-binding proposal to declassify the board so that all directors stand for annual elections, while Palogic committed through a defined cooperation period to vote with the board’s recommendations, observe ownership and proxy-solicitation limits, and abide by mutual non-disparagement provisions.

Also on March 6, 2026, director Charles D. Jehl notified the board that he will not seek re-election when his current Class III term ends at the 2026 annual meeting, and the company reported no disagreements underlying his decision. The agreement with an activist shareholder and the planned board transition highlight evolving governance at Open Lending, potentially reshaping board dynamics and aligning the company more closely with shareholder preferences for annual director elections and reduced entrenchment.

The most recent analyst rating on (LPRO) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Open Lending stock, see the LPRO Stock Forecast page.