Lakeland Financial (LKFN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.40B
• Dividend Yield: 3.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 159.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: -2.90%
• EPS Growth: -1.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 647
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.16
• Shares Outstanding: 25,266,502
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 222,204
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 159,261
• PEG Ratio: 1.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.69
• 1Y Price Target: $66.50
• Price Target Upside: 20.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.29
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $285.26M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(10.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is anchored by solid underlying fundamentals (revenue growth, profitability, and generally sound capitalization), but is held back by the notable 2025 cash-flow deterioration and weak current price momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation and capital-return actions (dividend raise and larger buyback authorization) provide meaningful support.

Positive Factors

Long-term organic growth track record

A multi-decade record of organic growth and an >8% CAGR in tangible book value shows durable franchise expansion and disciplined capital reinvestment. That history indicates repeatable lending and deposit gathering capabilities in its Indiana markets, supporting stable long-term earnings.

Expanded share repurchase authorization

A materially larger, flexible repurchase program signals strong capital generation and management confidence in balance-sheet strength. The ability to return excess capital via buybacks alongside dividends supports durable shareholder returns and disciplined capital allocation over coming quarters.

Strengthened credit leadership

Elevating an experienced internal credit leader to CCO reinforces governance over underwriting and risk controls. Strong credit oversight is a durable advantage for a regional bank, helping preserve asset quality and limit losses through business-cycle swings and local-sector concentration risks.

Negative Factors

Sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration

A near halving of operating cash flow and large free cash flow decline in 2025 materially weakens cash conversion quality. If persistent, this reduces internal funding for loan growth, buybacks or dividends and raises reliance on external funding, increasing execution and earnings risk.

Margin compression vs prior years

Sustained margin erosion versus peak years signals normalization of pricing or higher funding/operating costs. Lower structural margins reduce profit sensitivity to asset growth and provide less buffer during credit stress, pressuring long-term return on equity if not reversed.

Leverage / capital-structure variability

Meaningful swings in reported leverage across years create uncertainty about long-term funding policy. Variable debt usage can raise refinancing and interest-rate risk, complicate capital planning, and reduce predictability of dividend/buyback capacity if higher leverage recurs.

Lakeland Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lakeland Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Lake City Bank that provides various banking products and services. The company accepts various deposit products, such as noninterest bearing, interest-bearing checking, savings, money market, NOW, and demand deposits. Its loan products include commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and multi-family residential, agri-business and agricultural, consumer 1-4 family mortgage, and other consumer loans. The company also offers retail and merchant credit card services; corporate treasury management, wealth advisory, and trust services; retail brokerage services, including various financial and investment products, such as annuities and life insurance; and mobile business banking and on-line treasury management services. It serves commercial real estate, manufacturing, agriculture, construction, retail, wholesale, finance and insurance, accommodation and food services, and health care industries. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 51 offices in fifteen counties, including 45 offices in northern Indiana and six offices in central Indiana. Lakeland Financial Corporation was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Lakeland Financial generates revenue through various streams, primarily focusing on interest income from loans and investments, along with non-interest income from service fees and wealth management services. The company's core revenue model relies on net interest margin, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Key revenue streams include commercial and consumer loans, mortgage loans, and investment securities. Additionally, the bank earns non-interest income from fees associated with deposit accounts, ATM transactions, and wealth management services, contributing to a diversified revenue base. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance customer acquisition and retention, further bolstering earnings.

Lakeland Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (score 78) reflects solid multi-year revenue growth and healthy profitability, and the balance sheet is generally sound (score 74) with solid ROE and manageable leverage. However, the cash flow profile is a clear drag (score 52) due to the sharp 2025 deterioration in operating/free cash flow and weaker cash conversion, which raises near-term quality-of-earnings risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly overall (up from $228.1M in 2020 to $421.7M in 2025), with solid growth in 2023 and 2025 despite a modest dip in 2024. Profitability remains healthy (2025 net margin ~24.5%, EBIT margin ~29.8%), but margins have compressed versus 2021–2022 levels, indicating some normalization in earnings power even as top-line scale improved.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with low-to-moderate debt relative to equity in most years (debt-to-equity ~0.24 in 2025; notably higher in 2022 at ~0.52). Equity has grown over time ($568.8M in 2022 to $762.4M in 2025), supporting balance-sheet strength. Returns on equity are consistently solid (~13%–18%), though the upward move in debt in 2025 versus 2024 (which shows $0 debt) adds some uncertainty around capital structure consistency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened materially in 2025: operating cash flow fell to $54.8M from $102.5M in 2024, and free cash flow declined sharply (2025 free cash flow growth -49.7%). In prior years, free cash flow tracked net income well (generally ~93%–97% of net income from 2020–2024), but 2025 shows a clear drop-off in cash conversion, which is a key near-term watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	421.71M	430.00M	393.13M	281.43M	237.94M
Gross Profit	257.19M	236.77M	241.04M	235.37M	221.73M
EBITDA	130.37M	117.64M	116.51M	131.94M	125.83M
Net Income	103.36M	93.48M	93.77M	103.82M	95.73M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.99B	6.68B	6.52B	6.43B	6.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	141.32M	591.05M	1.20B	1.32B	2.08B
Total Debt	184.20M	0.00	50.00M	297.00M	75.00M
Total Liabilities	6.23B	5.99B	5.87B	5.86B	5.85B
Stockholders Equity	762.40M	683.82M	649.70M	568.80M	704.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	103.77M	93.85M	107.99M	164.52M	107.60M
Operating Cash Flow	114.89M	102.48M	113.98M	169.34M	113.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-325.42M	-164.24M	-54.93M	-626.52M	-331.55M
Financing Cash Flow	183.65M	78.13M	-37.51M	-95.78M	651.09M

Lakeland Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 55.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LKFN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.36, below the 50-day MA of 58.94, and below the 200-day MA of 60.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LKFN.

Lakeland Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASH	82 Outperform	$1.94B	11.28	22.83%	0.27%	7.80%	19.38%
STEL	74 Outperform	$1.81B	15.57	6.38%	1.82%	-4.40%	-8.80%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
LOB	65 Neutral	$1.47B	15.19	6.31%	0.33%	10.41%	-19.43%
LKFN	63 Neutral	$1.40B	14.15	13.50%	3.37%	-2.90%	-1.47%
CCB	61 Neutral	$1.13B	36.84	10.01%	―	-2.11%	6.48%
CLBK	55 Neutral	$1.79B	30.45	1.34%	―	-3.60%	-8.63%

Lakeland Financial Corporate Events

Lakeland Financial Doubles Authorization for Share Repurchases

On March 5, 2026, Lakeland Financial Corporation’s board of directors doubled the size of its existing share repurchase authorization, increasing the total amount of common stock it may buy back from $30 million to $60 million. The company may conduct repurchases in the open market, through block trades or privately negotiated transactions, at its discretion until the program expires on April 30, 2027.

As of March 5, 2026, the amended program had approximately $34 million of remaining repurchase capacity, giving Lakeland Financial significant room to continue returning capital to shareholders. The authorization remains flexible, as it does not obligate the company to repurchase any specific amount of stock and may be extended, modified, suspended or discontinued depending on market conditions and corporate priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (LKFN) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lakeland Financial stock, see the LKFN Stock Forecast page.

Lakeland Financial Highlights Q4 2025 Strength and Growth

In an investor presentation used in meetings with analysts and shareholders discussing fourth-quarter 2025 performance, Lakeland Financial highlighted its long-term record of profitability and capital strength, including being profitable for the past decade, delivering a more than 8% compound annual growth rate in tangible book value per share over roughly 20 years, and maintaining robust capital ratios such as a 10.86% tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio and a total risk-based capital ratio of 15.92% as of December 31, 2025. Management underscored the bank’s 34-year history of organic balance sheet and earnings growth—driven by double‑digit compound annual growth in loans, deposits, net income and earnings per share since 1991—alongside recent net interest margin expansion and the competitive advantages provided by Indiana’s relatively low unemployment, strong manufacturing and life sciences activity, and major announced projects in data centers, electric vehicles and the LEAP Research and Innovation District, all of which position the company for continued growth and reinforce its “fortress” balance sheet narrative for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (LKFN) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lakeland Financial stock, see the LKFN Stock Forecast page.

Lakeland Financial Promotes Robinson-Gay to Chief Credit Officer

On January 15, 2026, Lakeland Financial Corporation announced that Donald J. Robinson-Gay was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Credit Officer of both the company and its subsidiary, Lake City Bank, effective January 14, 2026. Robinson-Gay, who has led Lake City Bank’s credit division since 2023 and previously held a series of senior credit and commercial banking roles within the bank and at institutions including M&I Bank and BMO Harris Bank, will oversee management of the loan portfolio, credit quality and policies, and play a key role on key risk and loan committees; his appointment, supported by a Change in Control Agreement, underscores the bank’s emphasis on disciplined credit oversight and sustainable loan growth as it balances risk management with continued expansion in its Indiana markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (LKFN) stock is a Hold with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lakeland Financial stock, see the LKFN Stock Forecast page.

Lakeland Financial Raises Quarterly Dividend, Signals Ongoing Confidence

On January 13, 2026, Lakeland Financial Corporation announced that its board of directors approved a first-quarter 2026 quarterly cash dividend of $0.52 per share, payable on February 5, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 25, 2026, representing a 4% increase over the $0.50 per share dividend paid in 2025. Management framed the higher payout as a reflection of the company’s strong capital position and long-term disciplined balance sheet strategy, underscoring continued confidence in its financial health and signaling ongoing value returns to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (LKFN) stock is a Buy with a $64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lakeland Financial stock, see the LKFN Stock Forecast page.