First Commonwealth (FCF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.82B
• Dividend Yield: 3.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 618.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 3.80%
• EPS Growth: -6.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,538
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 102,143,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 632,950
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 618,105
• PEG Ratio: 1.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.55
• 1Y Price Target: $19.80
• Price Target Upside: 10.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $559.17M

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(12.04% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (profitability, improved leverage, and a strong 2025 cash flow rebound) and a constructive earnings outlook with continued capital returns. Valuation is supportive, while near-term technical signals and guidance for a short-term NIM dip temper the overall rating.

Positive Factors

De‑risked balance sheet

Ending 2025 with a low debt-to-equity (~0.26) and steady equity growth materially strengthens solvency and funding optionality. This durable capital profile increases resilience to credit or rate shocks, supports lending capacity, and underpins ongoing capital returns and strategic flexibility.

Stronger cash generation

A rebound that produced FCF equal to net income demonstrates renewed cash conversion and operating cash strength. Persistent operating cash supports dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment without reliance on external funding, improving long-term financial flexibility despite prior choppiness.

Diversified revenue and NII growth

Robust NII growth alongside resilient fee income indicates diversified, repeatable revenue streams. Fee income cushioning Durbin impacts and strong NII expansion improve pre-provision profitability and reduce single-factor earnings risk, supporting sustainable core earnings and capital returns.

Negative Factors

Margin pressure from reinvestment

Reinvesting loan sale proceeds into materially lower-yielding securities and the near-term NIM dip are structural margin headwinds. Over multiple quarters this reduces net interest income sensitivity, limits NIM upside absent asset repricing, and can depress earnings power while securities yield outlasts the sale timing.

Durbin regulatory drag

The Durbin-driven reduction in interchange income is a persistent regulatory cost once the asset threshold is crossed. This structurally reduces noninterest income and places ongoing pressure on fee revenue, forcing either cost offsets or greater reliance on core spread income for long-term profitability.

Key leadership transition

Retirement of a senior executive leading integration raises execution risk on operational initiatives and strategic projects. Transition in a key operational role can slow integration, process improvements, or capital deployment decisions, creating near- to medium-term operational execution uncertainty.

First Commonwealth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides various consumer and commercial banking services in the United States. Its consumer services include personal checking accounts, interest-earning checking accounts, savings and health savings accounts, insured money market accounts, debit cards, investment certificates, fixed and variable rate certificates of deposit, mortgage loans, secured and unsecured installment loans, construction and real estate loans, safe deposit facilities, credit cards, credit lines with overdraft checking protection, IRA accounts, and automated teller machine (atm) services, as well as internet, mobile, and telephone banking services. The company's commercial banking services comprise commercial lending, business checking accounts, online account management services, payroll direct deposits, commercial cash management services, and repurchase agreements, as well as ACH origination services. It also offers various trust and asset management services; auto, home, and business insurance, as well as term life insurance; and annuities, mutual funds, and stock and bond brokerage services through a broker-dealer and insurance brokers. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 118 community banking offices in western and central Pennsylvania, as well as northeastern, central, and southwestern Ohio; corporate banking centers in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, as well as Columbus, Canton, and Cleveland, Ohio; and mortgage banking offices in Wexford, Pennsylvania, and Hudson, Westlake, as well as Lewis Center, Ohio. It also operates 136 automated teller machines. First Commonwealth Financial Corporation was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Indiana, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

First Commonwealth generates revenue through various key streams primarily centered around interest income and non-interest income. Interest income is earned from loans and mortgages issued to customers, which typically constitutes the largest portion of its revenue. This includes commercial loans, consumer loans, and mortgage loans. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income through fees associated with its banking services, which may include account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and service charges. Wealth management services contribute to non-interest income as well, providing financial advisory services, asset management, and trust services. Furthermore, First Commonwealth may engage in partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers to enhance its product offerings and expand its customer base, which can also contribute to its overall earnings.

First Commonwealth Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid: revenue has scaled with durable profitability, the balance sheet de-risked in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.26), and cash flow rebounded strongly with free cash flow matching net income (1.0x). Offsetting factors include margin compression vs. 2021–2022, net income still below the 2023 peak, and multi-year volatility in debt levels and free cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully since 2020, with another step-up in 2025, showing a generally positive growth trajectory. Profitability remains solid (2025 net margin ~21% with healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins), but margins have trended down from the very strong levels seen in 2021–2022, and net income in 2025 is still below the 2023 peak—suggesting some earnings pressure or normalization despite higher revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable on the latest year, with debt-to-equity improving materially versus 2022–2023 and ending 2025 at a conservative level (~0.26). Equity has grown steadily over the period, supporting the balance sheet. The main watch-out is the notable year-to-year volatility in total debt (spiking in 2023 and then coming down), which can signal changing funding needs; returns on equity remain decent but have eased versus prior highs (around ~10% in 2024–2025 vs ~12% in 2021–2022).

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened in 2025, with operating cash flow rising and free cash flow rebounding sharply (strong growth in 2025 after declines in 2022–2024). Cash conversion is currently strong, with free cash flow matching net income in 2025 (1.0x). The key weakness is that free cash flow has been choppy over multiple years, indicating less consistency in cash generation despite solid profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	729.44M	699.69M	626.61M	428.66M	400.60M
Gross Profit	493.12M	448.95M	467.47M	389.82M	386.67M
EBITDA	204.68M	184.01M	201.66M	170.74M	184.26M
Net Income	152.30M	142.57M	157.06M	128.18M	138.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.34B	11.58B	11.46B	9.81B	9.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.16B	1.28B	1.17B	916.90M	1.44B
Total Debt	409.71M	343.12M	784.59M	553.92M	320.58M
Total Liabilities	10.79B	10.18B	10.15B	8.75B	8.44B
Stockholders Equity	1.55B	1.41B	1.31B	1.05B	1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	187.54M	113.92M	128.72M	140.21M	154.41M
Operating Cash Flow	187.54M	129.46M	150.76M	151.41M	165.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-388.23M	-121.72M	-574.27M	-588.79M	-565.30M
Financing Cash Flow	247.64M	-21.32M	416.26M	196.25M	439.05M

First Commonwealth Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.22, above the 50-day MA of 17.67, and above the 200-day MA of 16.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCF.

First Commonwealth Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASH	82 Outperform	$1.99B	11.28	23.62%	0.27%	7.80%	19.38%
CHCO	73 Outperform	$1.74B	13.12	16.42%	2.65%	6.09%	11.49%
FCF	72 Outperform	$1.82B	11.38	9.71%	3.11%	3.80%	-6.23%
OFG	71 Outperform	$1.73B	9.31	14.82%	2.73%	3.98%	6.75%
NWBI	68 Neutral	$1.85B	13.97	7.22%	6.48%	15.86%	16.50%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

First Commonwealth Corporate Events

First Commonwealth announces leadership change and boosts capital returns

On January 27, 2026, First Commonwealth announced that Executive Vice President and Business Integration Group Manager Norman Montgomery plans to retire on May 1, 2026, marking an upcoming leadership transition in a key operational role. The company also reported improved fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighted by higher net income, stronger returns on assets and equity, and expanding net interest margin, while the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.135 per share and authorized an additional $25 million share repurchase program, underscoring management’s confidence in capital strength and its commitment to shareholder returns against a backdrop of moderate loan and deposit growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCF) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Commonwealth stock, see the FCF Stock Forecast page.