Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 591.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 36.40%
• EPS Growth: 1.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,802
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 2.44
• Shares Outstanding: 190,015,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 683,339
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 591,265
• PEG Ratio: -38.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.91
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 524.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.26
• 1Y Price Target: $94.00
• Price Target Upside: 25.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6,044.36
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.46T

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $82.00 ▲(9.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, improving leverage, and 2025 cash-flow rebound) and supportive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weaker technical momentum (below key longer-term moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risks around margin pressure and macro/regulatory headwinds, alongside near-term investment drag from Hepsiburada.

Positive Factors

Integrated super‑app ecosystem

Kaspi’s integrated super‑app model creates durable competitive advantages: one platform drives high engagement, frequent payments and marketplace volume, lowering customer acquisition costs and enabling cross‑sell of lending, deposits and merchant services. This structural ecosystem supports diversified, recurring revenue and tighter unit economics over multiple years.

Multi‑year revenue expansion and profitability

Kaspi has delivered sustained revenue growth and consistently strong gross and operating margins across 2020–2025, demonstrating its ability to scale core fintech and marketplace businesses profitably. Persistent high profitability supports internal funding for growth, dividend policy and resilience to macro swings over the medium term.

Conservative leverage and improving cash generation

Balance sheet metrics show conservative leverage and very strong returns on equity, while operating and free cash flow rebounded sharply in 2025 (free cash flow above net income). Together these indicate financial flexibility for reinvestment, dividends and cross‑border expansion without immediate financing stress.

Negative Factors

Margin pressure from delivery and product mix

A structural shift toward low‑ticket, high‑frequency purchases (e‑grocery, repeat items) raises per‑GMV delivery costs and compresses marketplace margins. Even with price increases, persistent mix change and lower take rates on some products can sustainably reduce unit economics and pressure consolidated margins absent efficiency gains or higher monetization.

Regulatory and interest‑rate headwinds to fintech returns

New bank taxes, elevated reserve requirements and a high‑rate environment structurally increase funding costs and tax burdens for Kaspi’s bank‑like fintech activities. These changes reduce net yields, raise cost of risk sensitivity, and can permanently compress return on loans and deposit margins unless offset by higher pricing or lower provisioning.

Scaling & integration risk from Türkiye expansion

Aggressive expansion (Hepsiburada) increased goodwill, loans and inventory, adding operational complexity and capital intensity. Continued reinvestment and a planned capital infusion can depress near‑term margins and create execution risk: converting enlarged assets into sustainable returns across countries requires sustained integration and cost control.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It operates through three segments: Payments Platform, Marketplace Platform, and Fintech Platform. The Payments Platform segment facilities transactions between customers and merchants. This segment offers shopping transactions, regular household bills, and peer to peer payments for consumers; accepts payment online and in store, issue and settle invoices, pay suppliers and monitor merchant turnover. It also provides proprietary data facilities informed decision making across multiple areas of business. Its Marketplace Platform segment connects online, and offline merchants and consumers enabling merchants to enhance its sales through an omni channel strategy and enable consumers to buy products and services from various merchants. This segment also operates marketplace through m-commerce, a mobile solution for shopping in person which consumers can use e-commerce to shop anywhere, anytime with free delivery; Kaspi Travel allows consumers to book domestic and international flights and package holidays, domestic rail tickets. It also enhances merchants sales by connecting payments and fintech products, Kapsi advertising, and other delivery services. The Fintech Platform segment provides consumers with BNPL, finance, and savings products and merchants with merchant finance services through super apps and Kapsi.kz Super app. It also involved in the banking; distressed asset management; real estate business; payment processing; online travel; and storage and processing of information services. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, the Republic of Kazakhstan.

How the Company Makes Money

Kaspi.kz primarily generates revenue from (1) fintech services and (2) marketplace/e-commerce services. In fintech, it earns money from consumer finance products (e.g., installment and other lending products), where revenue is driven by interest income and related fees (to the extent disclosed by the company), and from payments, where it monetizes high-frequency transactions via merchant acquiring/processing fees and other payment-related fees charged to merchants and/or users depending on the product. In e-commerce/marketplace, it earns revenue by facilitating transactions between merchants and consumers, typically through marketplace commissions and merchant service fees tied to gross merchandise value, as well as by charging for value-added services that help merchants sell (such as promotional/advertising placements or other merchant tools, where applicable as disclosed). The company’s model is reinforced by ecosystem cross-selling: payments and financial products are distributed through the Kaspi app’s large user base, while marketplace traffic and merchant adoption support additional payments volume and lending opportunities. If the company has material revenue contributions from specific named strategic partnerships, those details are null because they are not reliably available in this response.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue expansion and consistently high profitability, with conservative leverage and a sharp rebound in 2025 operating/free cash flow. Key risks are the meaningful margin step-down in 2025, uneven year-to-year growth/cash conversion, and limited visibility from some 2025 cash-flow ratio fields reported as zero.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the long run (2020–2025), including solid growth in 2025, but the growth path has been uneven with a sharp slowdown in 2024. Profitability remains a major strength: gross profit and operating profitability are high, supporting consistently large net income. The key weakness is margin compression in 2025 versus the exceptionally high profitability seen in 2022–2024, with net margin dropping meaningfully even as revenue grew.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative, with debt-to-equity in the mid-teens in 2024–2025 and improving versus earlier years, which supports financial flexibility. Equity has compounded substantially over time, and returns on equity are very strong, indicating efficient profit generation. The main watch-out is that extremely high returns on equity have moderated in 2025, and total assets have grown quickly—investors should monitor whether incremental asset growth continues to translate into strong profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened materially in 2025, with operating cash flow and free cash flow rising sharply and free cash flow well above net income, which is a positive quality signal. Earlier periods show more mixed conversion, including a decline in free cash flow in 2024 versus 2023. Also, some cash-flow coverage metrics for 2025 are reported as 0.0, which limits visibility and creates a data-quality overhang despite the strong absolute cash flow levels.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.94T	2.52T	1.89T	1.27T	885.48B
Gross Profit	2.89T	1.57T	1.22T	1.17T	812.11B
EBITDA	1.30T	1.27T	998.80B	1.02T	713.63B
Net Income	1.04T	1.04T	841.35B	585.03B	431.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.07T	8.38T	6.82T	5.12T	3.61T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	304.94B	2.11T	820.47B	615.36B	342.10B
Total Debt	348.12B	221.46B	222.16B	224.42B	310.46B
Total Liabilities	8.47T	6.80T	5.72T	4.30T	3.10T
Stockholders Equity	2.49T	1.52T	1.08T	819.16B	499.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.44T	486.17B	1.06T	961.52B	45.45B
Operating Cash Flow	1.62T	581.89B	1.11T	1.02T	70.35B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.19T	-108.36B	-218.36B	-487.16B	289.75B
Financing Cash Flow	1.12T	-709.77B	-675.97B	-275.91B	-352.58B

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 74.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 74.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.83, below the 50-day MA of 75.33, and below the 200-day MA of 80.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KSPI.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FFIV	75 Outperform	$16.07B	20.43	20.29%	―	9.66%	23.87%
KSPI	73 Outperform	$12.73B	7.25	50.10%	―	36.40%	1.10%
GEN	64 Neutral	$12.70B	20.88	25.60%	1.82%	15.97%	-6.65%
OKTA	64 Neutral	$13.87B	63.23	3.45%	―	12.12%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NTNX	58 Neutral	$10.47B	25.68	-36.77%	―	17.45%	―
RBRK	54 Neutral	$9.70B	-31.60	64.45%	―	48.93%	69.39%

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Corporate Events

Kaspi.kz Publishes 2025 Results Showing Surging Revenue and Rapid Balance-Sheet Growth

On March 13, 2026, Kaspi.kz JSC published its consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, detailing performance for 2023–2025 and highlighting its multi-year expansion across payments, lending and retail. The figures show 2025 revenue nearly doubling to KZT 4.05 trillion from 2024, driven by strong growth in net fee, interest and especially retail revenue, while net income edged up to KZT 1.07 trillion as costs and operating expenses rose sharply alongside rapid balance-sheet expansion and significant increases in loans to customers, goodwill and inventory, underscoring the company’s aggressive scaling but also higher operational complexity and risk for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (KSPI) stock is a Hold with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS stock, see the KSPI Stock Forecast page.

Kaspi.kz Sets April 2026 AGM, Proposes 850 KZT Dividend and Board Stock Option Grants

Kaspi.kz has convened its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for 15 April 2026 in Almaty, with a back-up date of 16 April if quorum is not reached, and set 27 February 2026 as the date for determining shareholders entitled to participate. The company also set an expected dividend record date of 16 April 2026 for holders of its American Depositary Shares.

The board will ask shareholders to approve the 2025 audited financial statements, the distribution of 2025 net income and a recommended dividend of 850 KZT per common share, and the reappointment of Deloitte LLP as external auditor for another 12 months. Directors will additionally seek approval for a long-term incentive package of 8,889 ADS stock options each for three board members vesting over three years, underscoring continued capital returns and alignment of board compensation with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (KSPI) stock is a Hold with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS stock, see the KSPI Stock Forecast page.

Kaspi.kz Posts Double-Digit 2025 Growth, Reinstates Dividend as Türkiye Expansion Accelerates

Kaspi.kz reported unaudited IFRS results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on March 2, 2026, showing FY revenue up 19% and net income up 10% year over year, with underlying revenue and net income rising 21% and 18% as its payments, fintech and marketplace platforms all contributed. The board recommended resuming regular shareholder returns via a proposed quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, which management believes is sustainable through 2026 while still funding expansion.

Management highlighted strong operating momentum, including 15% quarterly revenue growth, robust transaction engagement at 77 monthly transactions per active consumer, and faster growth from higher-margin services such as delivery, advertising, and e-grocery. At Hepsiburada in Türkiye, order growth turned from an 11% decline in Q1 2025 to 19% growth in Q4 2025 and engaged consumers rose 29%, as Kaspi.kz targets adjusted EBITDA breakeven and works to narrow an engagement gap with its Kazakh platform.

The company cautioned that increased bank corporate tax rates and higher reserve requirements in Kazakhstan, together with a high interest-rate environment, will likely cause 2026 bottom-line growth in its home market to trail top-line gains until these headwinds are fully absorbed by year-end. Even so, Kaspi.kz expects e-commerce to remain its main growth engine in Kazakhstan and Türkiye and sees potential upside from possible rate cuts, while pursuing a long-term ambition to reach 100 million users across multiple countries.

The most recent analyst rating on (KSPI) stock is a Hold with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS stock, see the KSPI Stock Forecast page.