Karyopharm Therapeutics (KPTI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $32.49M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 177.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: -0.55%
• EPS Growth: 49.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 279
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -15.34
• Shares Outstanding: 8,416,004
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 215,230
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 177,095
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -0.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $53.67
• Price Target Upside: 1228.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

Karyopharm Therapeutics is facing substantial financial challenges, including negative profitability, high debt levels, and cash flow issues, which are major risks. Technical indicators suggest weak market sentiment, and the lack of positive valuation metrics further adds to the concerns. Despite some progress in clinical trials and product revenue, the financial and market risks weigh heavily on the stock's potential performance, resulting in a low overall score.

Positive Factors

Market Potential

Karyopharm estimates a peak revenue opportunity of $1 billion for Xpovio in myelofibrosis.

Regulatory Approval

Xpovio previously received FDA Fast Track Designation for the treatment of patients with myelofibrosis.

Trial Progress

Analyst reiterates an Outperform rating for Karyopharm Therapeutics, highlighting the potential for meaningful upside from upcoming Phase 3 study data.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Xpovio net product revenue in 2024 was impacted by higher gross-to-net adjustments, driven primarily by increased 340B discounts and Medicare rebates.

Revenue Estimate Reduction

Karyopharm is decreasing FY25 revenue estimate to $144.3M from $152.3M.

Sales Challenges

Challenges of rising competition and higher gross-to-net adjustments were noted as headwinds to sales.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes drugs directed against nuclear export for the treatment of cancer and other diseases. The company discovers, develops, and commercializes novel and Selective Inhibitor of Nuclear Export (SINE) compounds function by binding with and inhibiting the nuclear export protein XPO1. Its lead compound, include XPOVIO in combination with bortezomib and dexamethasone for the treatment of adult patients with multiple myeloma, in combination with dexamethasone for the treatment of adult patients with heavily pretreated multiple myeloma, and for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. The company has license agreement with Menarini Group to develop and commercialize NEXPOVIO for human oncology indications in Europe, including the United Kingdom; Latin America; and other countries. Its oral SINE compounds also designed to force nuclear accumulation in the levels of multiple tumor suppressor and growth regulatory proteins. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Newton, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Karyopharm Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lead product, XPOVIO (selinexor), which is approved for the treatment of multiple myeloma and certain other cancers. The company also earns money through licensing agreements and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, which may involve upfront payments, milestones, and royalty arrangements. Additionally, Karyopharm may receive funding from grants and partnerships aimed at furthering its research and development efforts. These revenue streams are bolstered by the company's focus on expanding the indications and markets for its existing product portfolio, as well as advancing its pipeline of drug candidates.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Karyopharm Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, consistent losses, negative equity, and cash flow issues. The high level of debt and negative margins present substantial risks, while reliance on external financing highlights the company's need for careful financial management to sustain operations.

Income Statement

Karyopharm Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in revenue over the past few years, with the most recent year showing a slight decrease in revenue from $146.0 million to $145.2 million. The company consistently reports negative net income, with a net profit margin of -52.6% for the latest year, indicating challenges in achieving profitability. Additionally, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operating inefficiencies and high costs relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The company faces a challenging financial structure with negative stockholders' equity, indicating liabilities far exceed assets, and a debt-to-equity ratio that is not meaningful due to negative equity. The equity ratio is also negative, suggesting very high financial risk. There is a high level of total debt, which could pose significant risks if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Karyopharm's cash flow from operations is negative, and free cash flow is also negative, which indicates difficulties in generating cash to cover operations and investments. However, there is a noticeable increase in financing cash flow, suggesting reliance on external funding. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, further emphasizing cash flow challenges.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
145.24M	146.03M	157.07M	209.82M	108.08M
	Gross Profit
139.23M	141.09M	151.86M	206.42M	105.38M
	EBIT
-119.44M	-129.54M	-142.20M	-98.27M	-171.85M
	EBITDA
-38.60M	-118.42M	-139.31M	-96.98M	-167.85M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-76.42M	-143.10M	-165.29M	-124.09M	-196.27M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
108.71M	191.44M	277.97M	228.62M	273.45M
	Total Assets
164.42M	240.44M	358.17M	305.31M	313.05M
	Total Debt
99.92M	177.02M	172.98M	169.29M	117.93M
	Net Debt
37.45M	124.78M	37.79M	-21.17M	32.01M
	Total Liabilities
350.44M	376.64M	374.83M	384.98M	262.50M
	Stockholders Equity
-186.02M	-136.21M	-16.66M	-79.67M	50.55M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-127.63M	-92.72M	-149.67M	-112.83M	-160.38M
	Operating Cash Flow
-127.49M	-92.72M	-149.55M	-107.12M	-160.23M
	Investing Cash Flow
95.47M	7.94M	-104.26M	141.84M	-53.69M
	Financing Cash Flow
41.65M	1.12M	193.74M	73.65M	172.08M

Karyopharm Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.04
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KPTI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.38, below the 50-day MA of 7.43, and below the 200-day MA of 11.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.54 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KPTI.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NBIX	68 Neutral	$9.54B	29.06	14.16%	―	24.81%	33.67%
SRPT	68 Neutral	$5.28B	21.98	19.71%	―	52.97%	―
VRTX	64 Neutral	$122.02B	―	-3.15%	―	11.64%	-114.72%
BPMC	52 Neutral	$5.22B	―	-31.26%	―	104.04%	87.80%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.35B	1.19	-46.87%	2.63%	17.16%	1.34%
KPTI	36 Underperform	$32.49M	―	41.08%	―	-0.55%	49.85%
BLUE	36 Underperform	$48.46M	―	-295.35%	―	184.12%	31.92%

Karyopharm Therapeutics Corporate Events

Karyopharm Announces Executive Retention Equity Awards

On January 27, 2025, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.’s Compensation Committee approved retention equity awards for key executive officers under its 2022 Equity Incentive Plan, effective February 28, 2025. The awards consist of stock options and restricted stock units designed to incentivize executives, with specific vesting schedules and provisions for accelerated vesting in the event of employment termination following a Change in Control Event.