Neurocrine (NBIX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.98B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 24.81%
• EPS Growth: 33.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 3.29
• Shares Outstanding: 98,938,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,863,695
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,461,214
• PEG Ratio: 0.82
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.74
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 11.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $163.20
• Price Target Upside: 79.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 22

Neurocrine's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, such as the Takeda agreement, bolster its growth potential. However, the current bearish technical indicators and high P/E ratio limit the overall stock attractiveness. The earnings call provides a cautiously optimistic outlook, focusing on expansion and innovation despite competitive pressures.

Positive Factors

Market Potential

Surveyed physicians indicated strong uptake of Crenessity over the next 2 years (could have dominant share within ~2-3 years on the market).

Product Launch

NBIX is highlighted for biotech investors given its well-established Ingrezza franchise and upside potential from the Crenessity CAH launch and pipeline programs.

Product Sales

High margins on product sales offer some insulation to increased costs of goods sold.

Negative Factors

Market Dynamics

1Q sales will be impacted by increased commercial headwinds.

Sales Expectations

Street expectations for Crenessity's first-year sales are considered aggressive.

Sales Performance

1Q sales for Ingrezza are expected to be impacted by increased commercial headwinds, including increased utilization management from payors and a slowdown in new scripts.

Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing treatments for neurological and endocrine-related disorders. The company operates in the healthcare sector, leveraging innovative research to address unmet medical needs. Neurocrine's core products include INGREZZA (valbenazine), a medication for tardive dyskinesia, and ORILISSA (elagolix), developed in partnership with AbbVie for the treatment of endometriosis pain. The company's mission is to improve patient lives by delivering life-changing therapies through a commitment to scientific excellence and innovation.

How the Company Makes Money

Neurocrine Biosciences generates revenue primarily through the sales of its FDA-approved products, with INGREZZA being a significant contributor to its income due to its market presence and demand for treating tardive dyskinesia. Additionally, Neurocrine earns revenue from collaborative agreements and partnerships, such as its collaboration with AbbVie for ORILISSA, where it receives royalties and milestone payments. The company's earnings are further supported by strategic licensing agreements and research collaborations that enhance its product pipeline and expand its market reach. Neurocrine's revenue model is built on a strong foundation of proprietary drug development, strategic partnerships, and a focus on addressing niche therapeutic areas with high unmet needs.

Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Neurocrine exhibits strong financial performance characterized by impressive revenue growth, high profitability margins, and sound financial stability. The company's cash flow generation is robust, supporting its growth trajectory. Overall, Neurocrine is well-positioned with efficient operations and a solid balance sheet, though continuous monitoring of leverage is advisable.

Income Statement

Neurocrine's revenue has shown significant growth with a strong revenue growth rate year-over-year, indicating robust expansion. The gross profit margin is exceptionally high, showcasing efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity has improved, reflecting effective use of equity financing. The equity ratio indicates a solid proportion of equity financing in the asset base, ensuring financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neurocrine demonstrates a strong growth in free cash flow, which supports its expanding operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting efficient capital expenditure management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.36B	1.89B	1.49B	1.13B	1.05B
	Gross Profit
2.32B	1.85B	1.47B	1.12B	1.04B
	EBIT
570.50M	250.90M	249.00M	196.90M	318.90M
	EBITDA
610.10M	358.00M	264.60M	218.70M	336.10M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
341.30M	249.70M	154.50M	89.60M	407.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.08B	1.03B	989.30M	711.30M	801.00M
	Total Assets
3.72B	3.25B	2.37B	2.07B	1.73B
	Total Debt
455.10M	428.40M	262.90M	440.40M	412.30M
	Net Debt
222.10M	177.30M	0.00	99.60M	-388.70M
	Total Liabilities
1.13B	1.02B	660.90M	698.50M	608.50M
	Stockholders Equity
2.59B	2.23B	1.71B	1.37B	1.13B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
557.20M	361.60M	322.90M	233.10M	217.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
595.40M	389.90M	339.40M	256.50M	228.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
-126.80M	-467.10M	-177.10M	-130.20M	4.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-486.70M	65.30M	-234.30M	27.40M	-157.80M

Neurocrine Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 90.87
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 90.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.45, below the 50-day MA of 114.81, and below the 200-day MA of 127.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBIX.

Neurocrine Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RDY	70 Outperform	$10.62B	16.52	18.51%	0.61%	13.26%	1.33%
NBIX	68 Neutral	$8.98B	27.61	14.16%	―	24.81%	33.67%
PRGO	62 Neutral	$3.32B	―	-3.53%	4.54%	-6.05%	-1677.05%
VTRS	54 Neutral	$9.00B	―	-3.24%	6.37%	-4.58%	-1269.23%
TEVA	50 Neutral	$15.52B	―	-25.44%	―	4.34%	-206.85%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.35B	1.19	-46.26%	2.67%	19.24%	1.75%

Neurocrine Corporate Events

Neurocrine Biosciences Appoints Dr. Keswani as CMO

Neurocrine Biosciences announced the appointment of Dr. Sanjay Keswani as Chief Medical Officer effective June 2, 2025, succeeding Dr. Eiry W. Roberts, who will remain as a strategic advisor. Dr. Keswani brings over 20 years of pharmaceutical industry experience and will lead clinical development and medical affairs, enhancing the company’s capabilities as it explores new therapeutic modalities.

Neurocrine Amends License Agreement with Takeda

On January 24, 2025, Neurocrine Biosciences announced an amendment to its Exclusive License Agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical, originally established in June 2020, to develop and commercialize osavampator. The amended agreement allows Neurocrine exclusive rights to develop and commercialize osavampator worldwide, except in Japan where Takeda retains rights. This strategic move shifts the partnership to a royalty-bearing license, positioning Neurocrine to advance osavampator, a potential first-in-class AMPA modulator for major depressive disorder, into Phase 3 trials. The agreement outlines shared development costs and mutual royalty arrangements, potentially enhancing Neurocrine’s market positioning and stakeholder value by streamlining its focus on osavampator’s global development, excluding Japan.