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Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA
(OTC:JRONY)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(9.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is mainly driven by solid underlying financial performance (revenue growth and positive cash generation) tempered by thin/compressing margins and elevated leverage. Earnings call takeaways were mixed: strong H1 execution and margin progression, but cautious guidance and near-term cash/deflation headwinds. Technicals remain a drag with the stock below key medium/long-term moving averages, while valuation is modestly supportive due to a moderate P/E and ~3.8% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth momentum
Sustained top-line growth driven by volume-led sales and like-for-like gains across banners signals durable demand and execution. Coupled with continued store openings and remodels, this supports structural market share gains and revenue resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin, compressed margins
A structurally low net margin near 1.7% with recent compression limits the company's ability to absorb cost shocks, higher financing costs, or promotional competition. Margin sensitivity constrains free cash flow upside and increases execution risk during adverse market trends.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth momentum
Sustained top-line growth driven by volume-led sales and like-for-like gains across banners signals durable demand and execution. Coupled with continued store openings and remodels, this supports structural market share gains and revenue resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JRONY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.72B
Dividend Yield3.78%
Average Volume (3M)433.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.3
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth14.31%
EPS Growth10.65%
CountryUS
Employees147,709
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.94
Shares Outstanding314,646,500
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume433
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.18
P/FCF Ratio5.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.69B
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jerónimo Martins SGPS SA engages in the production, distribution, and sale of food and other fast moving consumer goods product. It operates through the following segments: Portugal Retail, Portugal Cash and Carry, Poland Retail, Colombia Retail, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Jeronimo Martins makes money primarily by selling consumer products through its retail store networks. Its core revenue model is straightforward retail: it purchases goods (food and non-food fast-moving consumer goods) from manufacturers and distr...
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call describes a solid operational performance: group sales and EBITDA grew, margins improved across all banners, Ara delivered standout growth, and the company continued network expansion and targeted CapEx. However, this positive operational momentum is tempered by meaningful headwinds: pronounced deflation in Poland (pressuring like-for-like sales and cash), negative cash flow before dividends, higher financial costs from expansion, and non-recurring charges. Management remains cautious on H2 macro and competitive dynamics. On balance, positives in execution and profitability are offset by near-term cash/deflation risks and an uncertain outlook.Positive Updates
Group Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Group sales rose 5.1% (4.5% at constant fx) to EUR 18.3 billion in H1 2026. EBITDA increased 7.6% to EUR 1.2 billion, with EBITDA margin improving to 6.8% (up 16 basis points versus H1 2025).
Negative Updates
Strong Deflationary Pressure at Biedronka
Biedronka faced substantial basket deflation (around 6% in Q2), which led to Q2 like-for-like of -1.6% despite volumes growing ~4% in the quarter. Deflation materially weighed on sales dynamics and cash generation.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Group sales rose 5.1% (4.5% at constant fx) to EUR 18.3 billion in H1 2026. EBITDA increased 7.6% to EUR 1.2 billion, with EBITDA margin improving to 6.8% (up 16 basis points versus H1 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was cautious and focused: management does not expect a material improvement in market conditions in H2 2026 given geopolitical uncertainty, limited visibility and continued pressure on consumer confidence, so priorities remain protecting competitiveness, ensuring consumer preference and improving efficiency while keeping flexibility to adjust execution; the Group capped its full‑year investment programme at around EUR 1.2 billion (H1 CapEx was EUR 412 million), opened 124 stores and remodeled 115 in H1, and will continue logistics expansion (new DCs), all while targeting profitable, volume‑led growth after H1 sales of EUR 18.3 billion (+5.1% / +4.5% at constant exchange rates) and EBITDA of EUR 1.2 billion (+7.6%, margin 6.8% up 16 bps); cash dynamics (net cash ex‑IFRS16 EUR 11 million after EUR 409 million of dividend payments, and cash flow before dividends of -EUR 332 million) mean capital discipline will be maintained alongside the expansion plan.Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 36.58B | 35.99B | 33.46B | 30.61B | 25.39B | 20.89B |
| Gross Profit | 7.29B | 7.43B | 6.85B | 6.25B | 5.33B | 4.50B |
| EBITDA | 2.48B | 2.38B | 2.16B | 2.15B | 1.76B | 1.54B |
| Net Income | 638.43M | 621.46M | 599.00M | 756.00M | 590.00M | 463.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.92B | 17.05B | 15.30B | 14.30B | 11.85B | 10.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.83B | 2.27B | 1.88B | 2.07B | 1.80B | 1.53B |
| Total Debt | 5.70B | 5.57B | 4.92B | 4.15B | 3.15B | 2.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.31B | 13.52B | 12.04B | 11.23B | 9.26B | 7.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.39B | 3.29B | 3.01B | 2.81B | 2.33B | 2.28B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.27B | 649.00M | 933.00M | 1.21B | 1.17B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.35B | 2.28B | 1.65B | 2.02B | 2.10B | 1.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.09B | -1.03B | -896.00M | -1.18B | -825.00M | -617.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -839.51M | -866.00M | -691.00M | -950.00M | -676.00M |
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Technical Analysis
Positive
38.26
Price Trends
39.57
Positive
42.81
Negative
45.35
Negative
Market Momentum
0.29
Negative
57.63
Neutral
78.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JRONY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.95, below the 50-day MA of 39.57, and below the 200-day MA of 45.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JRONY.
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $23.55B | 32.99 | 16.75% | ― | 3.83% | 38.90% | |
70 Outperform | $4.50B | 46.30 | 15.09% | ― | 11.16% | 30.78% | |
66 Neutral | $40.31B | 22.97 | 75.46% | 2.61% | 3.44% | -6.81% | |
66 Neutral | $18.05B | 54.20 | 7.13% | ― | 8.45% | -12.95% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $12.72B | 17.32 | 19.71% | 3.99% | 14.31% | 10.65% | |
50 Neutral | $2.85B | -75.19 | -2.43% | ― | -3.22% | 44.69% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
JRONY
Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA
40.41
-6.64
-14.11%
SYY
Sysco
84.29
6.62
8.53%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
110.20
47.90
76.89%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
47.06
22.01
87.86%
PFGC
Performance Food Group
114.90
17.44
17.89%
USFD
US Foods Holding
108.88
30.61
39.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.