Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JRONY) AI Stock Analysis

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Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA

(OTC:JRONY)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:

$54.00

▲(9.96% Upside)

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and resilience in a challenging market environment. The earnings call indicates robust sales growth and strategic expansion, which are significant positives. However, technical analysis shows mixed signals, and valuation metrics suggest moderate attractiveness. The company's ability to manage external challenges and improve profitability will be key to future performance.

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA (JRONY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$15.36B

Dividend Yield2.71%

Average Volume (3M)791.00

Price to Earnings (P/E)22.9

Beta (1Y)0.18

Revenue Growth7.44%

EPS Growth-5.15%

CountryUS

Employees119,427

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength47

IndustryFood Distribution

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.72

Shares Outstanding314,646,500

10 Day Avg. Volume618

30 Day Avg. Volume791

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.52

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.44

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.98

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$53.00

Price Target Upside7.92% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJeronimo Martins SGPS SA is a leading international retail and distribution company based in Portugal, primarily operating in the grocery and food sectors. The company manages various retail chains, including Pingo Doce, a popular supermarket chain in Portugal, and Biedronka, a significant player in the Polish market. Jeronimo Martins focuses on offering a wide range of products, including fresh food, groceries, and household goods, catering to the diverse needs of its customers across multiple markets.

How the Company Makes MoneyJeronimo Martins generates revenue through its extensive network of retail stores, primarily through the sale of food and non-food items to consumers. The company has a strong presence in Poland and Portugal, with its Biedronka and Pingo Doce chains being the main contributors to its revenue. Key revenue streams include direct sales from retail operations, private label products, and partnerships with local suppliers. The company also benefits from economies of scale due to its large purchasing power, allowing it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers. Additionally, Jeronimo Martins invests in digital transformation and e-commerce, expanding its reach and enhancing customer convenience, which further contributes to its revenue growth.

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call indicates a robust performance with strong sales and EBITDA growth, despite facing challenges such as margin pressure from rising wages and intense competition. The company has shown resilience through strategic expansion and operational efficiency, although external factors like weather and muted consumption continue to pose challenges.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Sales Growth

Consolidated sales grew by 6.7% (6% at constant exchange rates) reaching EUR 17.4 billion, with a like-for-like increase of 1.6%.

EBITDA Improvement

EBITDA grew by 10.3% (9% at constant exchange rates) to EUR 1.1 billion, with the EBITDA margin increasing by 21 basis points to 6.6%.

Expansion and Investment

The group opened 196 stores and remodeled 71 locations. Notably, the launch of the Biedronka operation in Slovakia and the integration of 58 Colsubsidio stores in Colombia.

Operational Efficiency

Stricter cost management and productivity improvements more than offset margin pressure despite rising wages.

Positive Market Share Growth

Biedronka maintained price leadership in Poland, contributing to a market share increase of 0.2 percentage points.

Cash Position

The group maintained a cash position of EUR 213 million after the payment of EUR 371 million in dividends.

Negative Updates

Margin Pressure

The group faced significant margin pressure due to low basket inflation combined with a 9% increase in salaries.

Challenging Operating Environment

Muted food consumption and intense market competition created a challenging operating context.

Weather Impact on Sales

Adverse weather conditions in Poland affected sales in certain categories, impacting overall performance.

Cash Flow Outflow

Cash flow for the period was an outflow of EUR 157 million, primarily due to seasonality and supplier payments.

Deflation Challenges in Hebe

Hebe experienced substantial deflation in the basket, significantly pressuring EBITDA margin.

Company Guidance

In the first half of 2025, Jeronimo Martins faced a challenging operating environment characterized by muted food consumption, low basket inflation, and rising wages. Despite these pressures, the company managed to grow its top line by 6.7% (6% at constant exchange rates) to reach EUR 17.4 billion, supported by a like-for-like increase of 1.6% and contributions from store expansions. All banners delivered solid sales, with consolidated EBITDA rising by 10.3% (9% at constant exchange rates) to EUR 1.1 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin improvement of 21 basis points to 6.6% compared to the same period in 2024. The group maintained a cash position of EUR 213 million at the end of June, even after paying EUR 371 million in dividends. The first half also saw significant progress in capital expenditure, with 196 new stores opened and 71 locations remodeled. The company highlighted the successful expansion of the Biedronka operation in Slovakia and the integration of 58 stores formerly operated by Colsubsidio under the Ara banner. Looking ahead, Jeronimo Martins remains focused on price competitiveness and margin protection amid a highly uncertain market landscape, with a minor revision in Biedronka's remodeling plan reducing the target to 200 stores and CapEx now anticipated to be slightly above EUR 1 billion.

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA demonstrates solid revenue growth and operational efficiency with strong gross profit and EBITDA margins. However, profitability and cash generation need improvement, as indicated by the low net profit margin and declining free cash flow. The balance sheet is stable with manageable debt, but there's room for better equity utilization and profitability.

Income Statement

Very Positive

The company shows robust revenue growth, with a TTM revenue of 33.78 billion, up from 33.46 billion in the previous year, reflecting a steady growth trend. The gross profit margin is strong at 35.85% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 1.86% TTM, suggesting room for improved profitability. EBITDA margin stands at a healthy 26.03% TTM, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.64 TTM, indicating a balanced leverage with manageable risk. The equity ratio is 20.46% TTM, showing a reasonable proportion of equity financing. Return on Equity (ROE) is modest at 19.91% TTM, suggesting a decent return on shareholder investments, but there is potential for improvement.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow to 454 million TTM from 649 million, indicating a need to enhance cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 2.38 TTM, demonstrating strong cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.72, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	33.77B	33.46B	30.61B	25.39B	20.89B	19.29B
Gross Profit	12.11B	6.85B	6.25B	5.33B	4.50B	4.23B
EBITDA	8.79B	2.16B	2.15B	1.76B	1.54B	1.34B
Net Income	629.00M	599.00M	756.00M	590.00M	463.00M	312.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.44B	15.30B	14.30B	11.85B	10.37B	9.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.60B	1.88B	2.07B	1.80B	1.53B	1.04B
Total Debt	5.19B	4.92B	4.15B	3.15B	2.85B	2.80B
Total Liabilities	12.05B	12.04B	11.23B	9.26B	7.84B	7.17B
Stockholders Equity	3.16B	3.01B	2.81B	2.33B	2.28B	2.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	454.00M	649.00M	837.00M	1.21B	1.17B	935.17M
Operating Cash Flow	1.50B	1.65B	2.02B	2.10B	1.76B	1.45B
Investing Cash Flow	-983.00M	-896.00M	-1.18B	-825.00M	-617.00M	-488.29M
Financing Cash Flow	-816.00M	-866.00M	-691.00M	-950.00M	-676.00M	-807.39M

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price49.11

Price Trends

50DMA

50.18

Negative

100DMA

49.10

Positive

200DMA

44.39

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.29

Negative

RSI

47.82

Neutral

STOCH

24.62

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JRONY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.90, below the 50-day MA of 50.18, and above the 200-day MA of 44.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JRONY.

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PFGC	78 Outperform	$15.80B	46.62	7.91%	―	8.61%	-22.16%
SYY	73 Outperform	$38.08B	21.34	99.08%	2.60%	3.21%	-4.03%
JRONY	69 Neutral	$15.36B	22.93	20.66%	2.71%	7.44%	-5.15%
USFD	68 Neutral	$17.51B	33.19	11.48%	―	5.32%	11.65%
UNFI	66 Neutral	$1.69B	―	-4.11%	―	6.62%	53.12%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.42B	14.38	-3.63%	3.17%	2.07%	-6.17%
SPTN	59 Neutral	$906.72M	2,245.98	-2.08%	3.26%	1.54%	-134.75%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JRONY

Jeronimo Martins SGPS SA

49.11

12.92

35.70%

SPTN

SpartanNash Co

26.81

5.94

28.46%

SYY

Sysco

79.59

4.14

5.49%

UNFI

United Natural Foods

27.92

13.16

89.16%

PFGC

Performance Food Group

100.98

26.04

34.75%

USFD

US Foods Holding

77.34

18.16

30.69%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 29, 2025