Genki Sushi Co., Ltd. (9828) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥51.64B
• Dividend Yield: 2.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 41.84K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 6.49%
• EPS Growth: 4.27%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 595
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 70.48
• Shares Outstanding: 17,765,816
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 35,350
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 41,840
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.89
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 259.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥72.50B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,190.00 ▲(1.75% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/19/26

The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and a strengthened balance sheet, tempered by a notable TTM drop in operating/free cash flow and weaker cash conversion. Technicals are mixed with negative MACD and price below key longer-term averages. Valuation is a positive offset due to the low P/E and moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Profit Rebound

Sustained revenue growth and the recovery from prior losses indicate the core restaurant model regained customer demand and improved unit economics. This durable improvement supports steadier operating cash flows, better reinvestment capacity for stores and menu initiatives, and a stronger baseline for multi-period expansion.

Stronger Balance Sheet / ROE

Improved leverage and an expanded equity base reduce financial risk and increase strategic optionality. Mid‑20% ROE demonstrates efficient capital usage, enabling the company to fund growth, weather cyclicality, and potentially support shareholder returns without heavy reliance on external financing over the medium term.

Healthy Operating Margins

Relatively high gross and respectable net margins for a casual-dining operator point to durable pricing power or operational efficiency (menu mix, throughput). Margin resilience supports long-term profitability even if top-line growth moderates, enabling sustained investment in service, marketing, or selective store openings.

Negative Factors

Sharp FCF Decline

A large drop in free cash flow and weak cash conversion materially reduces internal funding for capex, dividends and working capital. Over several quarters this can force reliance on external financing, constrain reinvestment in stores or technology, and limit flexibility to execute strategic initiatives.

Rising Total Debt TTM

An increase in total debt during the trailing period raises refinancing and interest‑cost risk if operating momentum weakens. Even with improved leverage historically, rising absolute debt can compress financial flexibility, elevate fixed obligations, and reduce the buffer against revenue or margin shocks over the medium term.

Margin Softening vs FY2025

Observed declines in operating and EBITDA margins versus the prior annual period suggest rising cost pressure or promotional/pricing mix shifts. If persistent, margin erosion undermines earnings durability, limits free cash flow recovery, and requires either sustained cost cuts or pricing power to restore prior profitability levels.

Genki Sushi Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Genki Sushi Co., Ltd. (9828) is a Japan-based company that specializes in the sushi and Japanese cuisine sector. The company operates a chain of conveyor belt sushi restaurants, providing a unique dining experience where customers can select dishes as they pass by on a conveyor belt. Genki Sushi is known for its focus on fresh, high-quality ingredients and innovative technology in food delivery, appealing to a broad customer base seeking affordable yet authentic sushi dining options.

How the Company Makes Money

Genki Sushi makes money primarily by selling food and beverages to customers at its sushi restaurants. Its core revenue stream is restaurant sales (dine-in orders), which typically includes sushi (including made-to-order items) and side dishes, plus drink sales. Depending on store format, additional revenue can come from takeaway/packaged items and other in-store service sales. Profitability is driven by customer traffic, average spend per visit, menu pricing and mix, and operating efficiency (e.g., labor, food ingredient costs, rent/occupancy, and store-level throughput). Information on specific revenue breakdowns by segment, material partnerships, franchising/royalty income, or other non-restaurant income is null.

Genki Sushi Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is solid (revenue growth and profitability rebound; healthy TTM margins) and the balance sheet has de-risked with stronger equity and strong ROE, but the latest TTM cash-flow deterioration (weak cash conversion and sharply lower FCF) and some margin softening are meaningful near-term risks.

Income Statement

Performance has improved materially versus earlier years: revenue grew strongly from 2022–2025, and profitability rebounded from losses in 2021 to solid earnings in 2024–2025. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) margins remain healthy for the sector (about 58% gross margin and ~6.8% net margin), but profitability has softened versus the latest annual period (lower operating and EBITDA margins vs FY2025 annual), suggesting some cost or pricing pressure as growth continues.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved meaningfully over time, moving from high debt relative to equity in 2021–2023 to a more moderate level in FY2025 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Shareholders’ equity has expanded, supporting a stronger capital base, and returns on equity are strong (mid‑20%s TTM). The key watch item is that total debt has risen in TTM versus the last annual report, which could reduce flexibility if operating momentum slows.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow both fell sharply versus the latest annual period, with free cash flow down ~61% and covering only ~38% of net income—pointing to weaker cash conversion. While the prior annual periods showed much stronger free cash flow relative to earnings, the latest TTM step-down raises questions around working-capital swings or higher investment needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	69.83B	67.47B	61.84B	54.61B	44.61B	38.25B
Gross Profit	40.44B	40.22B	36.40B	31.06B	25.65B	22.63B
EBITDA	7.27B	8.71B	6.94B	3.75B	2.21B	1.44B
Net Income	4.72B	4.96B	3.26B	1.01B	1.30B	-443.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.79B	35.01B	32.92B	30.85B	27.00B	24.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.65B	11.95B	10.55B	7.69B	7.00B	5.26B
Total Debt	10.68B	8.20B	10.12B	12.38B	11.15B	10.36B
Total Liabilities	21.58B	17.95B	19.38B	20.55B	17.69B	16.26B
Stockholders Equity	19.21B	17.06B	13.54B	10.30B	9.30B	8.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.40B	4.92B	5.12B	2.84B	2.81B	218.40M
Operating Cash Flow	3.65B	6.79B	6.22B	4.68B	4.03B	1.60B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.21B	-1.77B	-906.26M	-2.19B	-1.85B	-2.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.35B	-3.58B	-2.60B	-1.86B	-509.25M	2.22B

Genki Sushi Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3135.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9828, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3135 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2927.30, above the 50-day MA of 3004.70, and below the 200-day MA of 3318.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -15.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9828.

Genki Sushi Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8153	70 Outperform	¥130.43B	20.09	―	0.70%	5.15%	47.13%
7630	66 Neutral	¥144.61B	43.18	―	1.71%	9.51%	6.29%
9828	64 Neutral	¥51.64B	11.04	―	2.41%	6.49%	4.27%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
7421	58 Neutral	¥79.93B	-50.43	―	0.32%	0.51%	4.92%
2695	58 Neutral	¥139.59B	31.47	―	0.63%	4.32%	11.78%
9861	53 Neutral	¥206.68B	72.52	―	0.69%	10.75%	-14.28%