Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. (9861) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥195.75B
• Dividend Yield: 0.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 447.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 46.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 10.75%
• EPS Growth: -14.28%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 3,016
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 29.39
• Shares Outstanding: 65,129,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 363,450
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 447,756
• PEG Ratio: -1.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.91
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.56K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,227.00 ▲(6.61% Upside)

Yoshinoya Holdings' stock score is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance, with revenue growth offset by profitability and cash flow challenges. Technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, and the high P/E ratio indicates overvaluation, limiting immediate investment appeal.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The company's ability to achieve a 9.34% revenue growth indicates a strong recovery and effective market strategies, enhancing its competitive position.

Operating Efficiency

Improved operating efficiency, as seen in the EBIT margin increase, reflects better cost management, which can support long-term profitability.

Financial Leverage

A low debt-to-equity ratio indicates prudent financial management, providing flexibility for future investments and stability in volatile markets.

Negative Factors

Profitability Margins

Modest profitability margins suggest competitive pressures and high operational costs, which may limit earnings growth and investor returns.

Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures can strain liquidity, impacting the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives.

Return on Equity

A low ROE suggests inefficient use of equity capital, potentially limiting shareholder value creation and attractiveness to investors.

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. (9861) is a prominent Japanese fast-food restaurant chain known for its gyudon, a rice bowl topped with beef and onions simmered in a mildly sweet sauce. Established in 1899, the company operates primarily in the food service sector, with a significant presence in Japan and international markets, including the United States, China, and various other Asian countries. Yoshinoya focuses on offering quick-service meals that emphasize quality and affordability, catering to a diverse customer base seeking convenient dining options.

How the Company Makes Money

Yoshinoya generates revenue primarily through the operation of its restaurant franchises and company-owned locations, with the majority of its income stemming from food and beverage sales. The company employs a franchise model that allows it to expand its brand presence while generating franchise fees and royalties from franchisees. Additionally, Yoshinoya capitalizes on seasonal promotions and menu innovations to attract customers and boost sales. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with suppliers to ensure efficient sourcing of ingredients, which helps maintain cost control and profitability. Furthermore, Yoshinoya's focus on enhancing its delivery and takeout services has been pivotal in driving sales, particularly in urban areas where demand for convenience is high.

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Yoshinoya Holdings shows revenue growth and operating efficiency improvements, but faces challenges with modest profitability margins and negative free cash flow, indicating high capital expenditures impacting liquidity.

Income Statement

Yoshinoya Holdings has shown a solid recovery trend in revenue from the pandemic impact, with a 9.34% increase in revenue from 2024 to 2025. However, profitability metrics such as the gross profit margin at approximately 60.6% and the net profit margin at around 1.85% are modest, indicating competitive pressures and high operational costs. The EBIT margin improved slightly to 3.57%, suggesting operating efficiency gains, but remains low compared to industry standards.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.44, demonstrating prudent financial leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is low at 5.93%, indicating limited earnings relative to equity. The equity ratio of 53.88% reflects a strong capital base, providing a buffer against financial volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a significant drop in free cash flow from 2024 to 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.5, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow in 2025 underscores high capital expenditures potentially affecting liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	216.12B	204.98B	187.47B	168.10B	153.60B	170.35B
Gross Profit	130.24B	124.20B	121.11B	108.33B	101.79B	107.06B
EBITDA	14.69B	13.64B	15.09B	15.76B	20.38B	242.00M
Net Income	4.23B	3.80B	5.60B	7.23B	8.12B	-7.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	124.58B	119.11B	112.94B	108.23B	112.21B	131.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.70B	20.57B	27.35B	24.23B	35.18B	37.90B
Total Debt	30.93B	28.28B	28.62B	33.61B	42.11B	68.34B
Total Liabilities	58.18B	54.30B	52.09B	52.63B	63.47B	91.78B
Stockholders Equity	65.74B	64.18B	60.36B	55.11B	48.10B	39.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-41.00M	10.37B	923.00M	20.17B	-1.99B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	13.30B	20.07B	7.25B	23.44B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-14.40B	-8.31B	-4.01B	-333.00M	-5.17B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-5.97B	-8.96B	-14.20B	-26.04B	17.81B

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3027.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9861, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3027 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3078.25, below the 50-day MA of 3082.82, and below the 200-day MA of 3139.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:9861.

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8153	70 Outperform	¥131.05B	31.35	―	0.71%	5.15%	47.13%
9936	69 Neutral	¥193.73B	21.96	―	1.65%	9.59%	8.08%
7630	66 Neutral	¥148.44B	49.61	―	1.70%	9.51%	6.29%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
9887	57 Neutral	¥121.20B	45.68	―	0.38%	20.44%	13.71%
7616	54 Neutral	¥182.28B	83.83	―	0.29%	8.99%	61.95%
9861	53 Neutral	¥195.75B	46.74	―	0.69%	10.75%	-14.28%

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Yoshinoya Holdings Announces Major Organizational Restructuring

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. announced an organizational restructuring to consolidate its six domestic subsidiaries into a new entity, Yoshinoya Junbi Co., Ltd., effective March 1, 2026. This move aims to centralize decision-making, strengthen governance, and streamline operations, enhancing overall efficiency and earnings capability.

Yoshinoya Holdings Reports Strong Financial Growth and Increases Dividend Forecast

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. reported a notable increase in its financial performance for the six months ending August 31, 2025, with net sales rising by 11.2% and operating profit increasing by 19.5%. The company also announced a revision in its dividend forecast, indicating an increase in annual dividends per share, reflecting a positive outlook on its financial health and commitment to shareholder returns.

Yoshinoya Holdings Increases Dividend Amid Upward Earnings Forecast

Yoshinoya Holdings has announced an increase in its interim dividend from retained earnings, raising it by 1 yen per share to 11 yen, following an upward revision of its full-year earnings forecast. Consequently, the company has also revised its year-end dividend forecast, resulting in an expected total annual dividend of 22 yen per share for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2026, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns.

Yoshinoya Holdings Revises Upward Earnings Forecast Amid Strong Q2 Performance

Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. reported a positive variance between its forecasted and actual consolidated results for the second quarter of FY02/2026, with operating income and net income exceeding expectations due to effective cost control and marketing initiatives. The company has revised its full-year earnings forecast upwards, anticipating continued sales growth despite potential increases in raw material costs, reflecting a favorable domestic economic environment and successful brand strategies.